SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Active radar and lidar instruments provide vertically resolved information about clouds, water vapor, and aerosols. However, assimilation of these observations is more challenging than the assimilation of passive observations because of the lack of accurate and fast forward models and difficulties in the modelling of observation errors.
Understanding the exchange of energy between the surface and the atmosphere is important in view of the climate scenario. However, it becomes a challenging task due to a sparse network of observations. This study aims to improve the energy balance estimates for the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pampa biomes located in South America using the radiation and precipitation forcing obtained from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the precipitation CPTEC/MERGE datasets. We employed three surface models—Noah-MP, Community Land Model (CLSM), and Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS)—and conducted modeling experiments, termed South America Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS-2). The results showed that SALDAS-2 radiation estimates had the smallest errors. Moreover, SALDAS-2 precipitation estimates were better than the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in the Cerrado (MBE = −0.16) and Pampa (MBE = −0.19). Noah-MP presented improvements compared with CLSM and IBIS in 100% of towers located in the Amazon. CLSM tends to overestimate the latent heat flux and underestimate the sensible heat flux in the Amazon. Noah-MP and Ensemble outperformed GLDAS in terms latent and sensible heat fluxes. The potential of SALDAS-2 should be emphasized to provide more accurate estimates of surface energy balance.
High-resolution water budget estimates benefit from modeling of human water management and satellite data assimilation (DA) in river basins with a large human footprint. Utilizing the Noah-MP land surface model with dynamic vegetation growth and river routing, in combination with an irrigation module, Sentinel-1 backscatter and snow depth retrievals, we produce a set of 0.7-km2 water budget estimates of the Po river basin (Italy) for 2015–2023. The results demonstrate that irrigation modeling improves the seasonal soil moisture variation and summer streamflow at all gauges in the valley after withdrawal of irrigation water from the streamflow in postprocessing (12% error reduction relative to observed low summer streamflow), even if the basin-wide irrigation amount is underestimated. Sentinel-1 backscatter DA for soil moisture updating strongly interacts with irrigation modeling: when both are activated, the soil moisture updates are limited, and the simulated irrigation amounts are reduced. Backscatter DA systematically reduces soil moisture in the spring, which improves downstream spring streamflow. Assimilating Sentinel-1 snow depth retrievals over the surrounding Alps and Apennines further improves spring streamflow in a complementary way (2% error reduction relative to observed high spring streamflow). Despite the seasonal improvements, irrigation modeling and Sentinel-1 backscatter DA cannot significantly improve short-term or interannual variations in soil moisture, irrigation modeling causes a systematically prolonged high vegetation productivity, and snow depth DA only impacts the deep snowpacks. This study helps advancing the design of digital water budget replicas for river basins.
Seasonal snow is an important water source and contributor to river discharge in mountainous regions. Therefore the amount of snow and its distribution are necessary inputs for hydrological modeling. Recent research has shown the potential of the Sentinel-1 radar satellite to map snow depth (SD) at sub-kilometer resolution in mountainous regions. In this study we assimilate these new SD retrievals into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using an ensemble Kalman filter for the western European Alps. The land surface model was coupled to the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP), a global flow routing scheme that provides simulations of routed river discharge. The performance with different precipitation forcing inputs, namely MERRA-2 (with and without gauge based correction) and ERA5, was compared based on in situ precipitation and SD stations, with ERA5 leading to the best SD performance. The Sentinel-1 based data assimilation (DA) results show small but systematic improvements for SD estimates, with the mean absolute error reducing from 36.4 cm for the open loop (OL) to 35.6 cm for the DA across all stations and timesteps, improving 318 out of 516 in situ sites. The DA updates in SD also result in enhanced snow water equivalent and discharge simulations. The median temporal correlation between discharge simulations and measurements increases from 0.73 to 0.78 for the DA. This study demonstrates the utility of the Sentinel-1 SD retrievals to improve not only the representation of snow in mountain ranges, but also the snow melt contribution to river discharge, and hydrological modeling in general.
Active radar and lidar instruments provide vertically resolved information about clouds, water vapor, and aerosols. However, assimilation of these observations is more challenging than the assimilation of passive observations because of the lack of accurate and fast forward models and difficulties in the modelling of observation errors.
The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 9-km resolution, 3-hourly surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture from April 2015 to present with a mean latency of 2.5 days from the time of observation. The product is based on the assimilation of SMAP L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model as the model is driven with observations-based precipitation forcing. This presentation discusses the improvements in the forthcoming Version 8 of L4_SM, including updates in the precipitation forcing, the Catchment model parameters, and the L-band microwave radiative transfer model (mwRTM). The precipitation observations used in L4_SM Version 8 outside of North America and the high latitudes are from the latest (Version 7) NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (IMERG) products. Moreover, occasionally excessive precipitation rates in earlier versions of L4_SM along certain longitudes in North America were eliminated by a bug fix in the precipitation corrections algorithm. The Catchment model in L4_SM Version 8 uses climatological snow albedo values based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, replacing the look-up table parameterization of earlier versions. Additionally, corrected soil parameters were implemented for a small region in Argentina that had erroneously been classified as peat because of an error in the ancillary soil data. Finally, the mwRTM in L4_SM Version 8 uses the Mironov soil mixing approach and updated values of the L-band scattering albedo, soil roughness, and vegetation opacity climatology obtained from the latest (Release 19) SMAP Level-2 dual-channel soil moisture retrieval product. During the development of L4_SM Version 8, the change in the mwRTM parameterization resulted in a reduced unbiased RMSE of surface soil moisture when verified against in situ measurements. It also reduced the standard deviation of the Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals by ~0.15 K, highlighting the importance of the mwRTM for successful data assimilation. The bug fixes in the precipitation corrections algorithm and the Catchment model soil parameters in the Argentina region result in locally large improvements of the simulated land surface states. In summary, the ongoing refinements of the L4_SM product continue to improve its science quality and performance for global soil moisture monitoring
The GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) Modeling Experiment (ROMEX) seeks to quantify the benefit of the increasing quantity of RO observations available for use in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and products. ROMEX includes participation from multiple operational NWP centers and NWP models, among them are NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model produced and run at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The design of the numerical experiments core to ROMEX include: 1) a control model run that includes all the RO observations currently used operationally with the sole exception of those from commercial sources and 2) a ROMEX model run that adds to the control over 25 thousand additional RO profiles per day from commercial RO providers, with both experiments run over the three-month period of September through November 2022. The ROMEX model run greatly augments the relatively small subset of the currently available commercial RO profiles which have been purchased for routine use in operational NWP by the various NWP centers. While this smaller subset of commercial RO profiles currently used in operations has been shown to have a positive impact on NWP forecasts, the additional impact from the ROMEX RO dataset has yet to be determined and is the focus of ROMEX. Results from GEOS are presented, including the impact on both analyses and forecasts over the study period and statistics using the forecast sensitivity-based observation impact (FSOI) method. The impact from varying the method of quality control and specifying the observation uncertainty for RO observations within the GEOS data assimilation system is also examined.
Accurate short-range (e.g., 7-day) microalgae growth forecasts will be beneficial for both production and harvesting of microalgae. This study developed an operational microalgae growth forecasting system with ensemble data assimilation (DA). The forecasting system was validated against observed Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM growth in two outdoor pond cultures located in Mesa, Arizona, U.S. We first examined the relative roles of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast and initial conditions (i.e., algal concentration at the time of forecast) in the microalgae 7-day forecast and found initial conditions dominated the microalgae forecasting skill, suggesting the importance of implementing DA to improve initial condition characterization. To correct the systematic bias in biomass simulations, we developed a particle filter with bias estimation (PFBE) DA method to estimate biases and correct the model forecast. We found the DA forecasting system could improve the 7-day microalgae forecasting skill by about 85% on average compared to model forecasts without DA. These results suggest the potential accuracy of biomass growth forecasts may be sufficient to inform real-time operational decisions, such as harvesting planning, for commercial-scale microalgae production.
The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.
This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.
We show that modifying a Bayesian data assimilation scheme by incorporating kinematically-consistent displacement corrections produces a scheme that is demonstrably better at estimating partially observed state vectors in a setting where feature information is important. While the displacement transformation is generic, here we implement it within an ensemble Kalman Filter framework and demonstrate its effectiveness in tracking stochastically perturbed vortices.
Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.
Precipitation in mountain regions is highly variable and poorly measured, posing important challenges to water resource management. Traditional methods to estimate precipitation include in-situ gauges, Doppler weather radars, satellite radars and radiometers, numerical modeling and reanalysis products. Each of these methods is unable to adequately capture complex orographic precipitation. Here, we propose a novel approach to characterize orographic snowfall over mountain regions. We use a particle batch smoother to leverage satellite information from Sentinel-1 derived snow depth retrievals and to correct various gridded precipitation products. This novel approach is tested using a simple snow model for an alpine basin located in Trentino Alto Adige, Italy. Here, we quantify the precipitation biases across the basin and found that the assimilation method (i) corrects for snowfall biases and uncertainties, (ii) leads to cumulative snowfall elevation patterns that are consistent across precipitation products, and (iii) results in overall improved basin-wide snow variables (snow depth and snow cover area) and basin streamflow estimates.
Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.
Abstract We develop a physics‐informed machine learning approach for large‐scale data assimilation and parameter estimation and apply it for estimating transmissivity and hydraulic head in the two‐dimensional steady‐state subsurface flow model of the Hanford Site given synthetic measurements of said variables. In our approach, we extend the physics‐informed conditional Karhunen‐Loéve expansion (PICKLE) method to modeling subsurface flow with unknown flux (Neumann) and varying head (time‐dependent Dirichlet) boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the PICKLE method is comparable in accuracy with the standard maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, but is significantly faster than MAP for large‐scale problems. Both methods use a mesh to discretize the computational domain. In MAP, the parameters and states are discretized on the mesh; therefore, the size of the MAP parameter estimation problem directly depends on the mesh size. In PICKLE, the mesh is used to evaluate the residuals of the governing equation, while the parameters and states are approximated by the truncated conditional Karhunen‐Loéve expansions with the number of parameters controlled by the smoothness of the parameter and state fields, and not by the mesh size. For a considered example, we demonstrate that the computational cost of PICKLE increases near linearly (as N 1.15 ) with the number of grid nodes N , while that of MAP increases much faster (as N 3.28 ). We also show that once trained for one set of Dirichlet boundary conditions (i.e., one river stage), the PICKLE method provides accurate estimates of the hydraulic head for any value of the Dirichlet boundary conditions (i.e., for any river stage).
Improving the ethanol yield of C. thermocellum is important for the industrial implementation of this microorganism in consolidated bioprocessing. A central role of NADPH in driving amino acid byproduct formation was demonstrated by eliminating the NADPH-supplying malate shunt and separately by changing the cofactor specificity in ammonium assimilation.
This article describes PyOED, a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, the current version of PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to “enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.” This article provides a brief description of the PyOED layout and philosophy and provides a set of exemplary test cases and tutorials to demonstrate the potential of the package.
In this study, a newly developed terrain-resolving four-dimensional variational (4DVar)-based data assimilation system, Immersed Boundary Method_Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (IBM_VDRAS), is applied to investigate the mechanisms leading to a heavy precipitation event that occurred in Taiwan during the Southwesterly Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX) conducted in 2008. The multivariate analyses using IBM_VDRAS and surface observations reveal that the warm and moist southwesterly flow from the ocean decelerates after making landfall, forming a surface convergence zone along the coast, which is further strengthened during the passage of a prefrontal rainband. The flow ascends as it advances inland until reaching the mountains, producing persistent precipitation and the enhancement of evaporative cooling as well as a widespread high pressure zone. A very shallow (<0.4 km) layer of offshore flow can be identified over the southwestern plain, which helps to generate a quasi-stationary convergence zone near the coast. Furthermore, sensitivity studies are carried out to quantify the relative importance of the contributions made by topographic blockage, evaporative cooling, and their nonlinear interaction, to the evolution of this type of convective system. The influence of the topography is identified as the dominant factor in modulating the flow structure of the rainfall system. However, it is the nonlinear interaction between terrain and evaporation that determines the distribution of the temperature and pressure fields.