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At least 775 records · Page 43

Top-down Estimate of Dust Emissions Through Integration of MODIS and MISR Aerosol Retrievals With the Geos-chem Adjoint Model

Predicting the influences of dust on atmospheric composition, climate, and human health requires accurate knowledge of dust emissions, but large uncertainties persist in quantifying mineral sources. This study presents a new method for combined use of satellite-measured radiances and inverse modeling to spatially constrain the amount and location of dust emissions. The technique is illustrated with a case study in May 2008; the dust emissions in Taklimakan and Gobi deserts are spatially optimized using the GEOSChem chemical transport model and its adjoint constrained by aerosol optical depth (AOD) that are derived over the downwind dark-surface region in China from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) reflectance with the aerosol single scattering properties consistent with GEOS-chem. The adjoint inverse modeling yields an overall 51% decrease in prior dust emissions estimated by GEOS-Chem over the Taklimakan-Gobi area, with more significant reductions south of the Gobi Desert. The model simulation with optimized dust emissions shows much better agreement with independent observations from MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) AOD and MODIS Deep Blue AOD over the dust source region and surface PM10 concentrations. The technique of this study can be applied to global multi-sensor remote sensing data for constraining dust emissions at various temporal and spatial scales, and hence improving the quantification of dust effects on climate, air quality, and human health.

MODIS aerosol retrievals↗

Assessment Of Advanced Concentrator Photovoltaic Modules

Computer program developed to estimate probabilistically total and component costs to end users of concentrating photovoltaic arrays in 1990's. Based on modified version of SIMRAND program, Simulation of Research and Development projects, -to estimate total cost of system for large number of module designs. Module design that yields minimum cost for total system then chosen as preferred design. To obtain distribution of expected module costs, simulation performed. Component estimates made by SIMRAND include efficiency of module and costs of cell, assembly of cells, lenses, and modules. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Borden, C. S.↗

Further studies with data collected by NASA's airborne Doppler lidar in Oklahoma in 1981

Continued study of the lidar data collected in 1981 has resulted in significant new improvements in the analysis techniques reported by Bluestein et al. (1985) and McCaul (1985). Through comparison of fore- and aft-derived scalar fields of intensity and spectral width, the self-consistency of the lidar moment estimates was assessed. Reflectivity estimates were found to be quite stable and reliable, while spectral widths were prone to become noisy if signal to noise ratio (SNR) fell below 12 dB. In addition, spectral widths contained a significant component due to radial velocity gradients in areas along gust fronts, and these components were different along the fore and aft lines of sight. Significant improvement in agreement between the fore and aft fields of spectral width was obtained by estimating the radial velocity gradient component and then removing it from the raw measured widths to yield only the turbulent portion of the contribution to width. Additional analyses showed that lidar-derived vorticity estimates were consistent with several approximate models of vorticity growth along gust front zones, and with the hypothesis that Helmholtz instability could have been responsible for vortices seen along part of the gust front of 30 June 1981. Computations of divergence transverse to axes through an isolated cumulus congestus indicated that the strongest convergence tended to lie along an axis parallel to the congestus. This and the results of other additional analyses seem to suggest that the lidar winds do indeed accurately reflected the basic features of the real wind field.

Bluestein, H. B.↗

Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

Spindler, Karlheinz↗

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

A linear point design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. This paper derives theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. Experimental simulation results are found to be in agreement with theoretical predictions. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy

Simon, Donald L.↗

Improvements in estimating proportions of objects from multispectral data

Methods for estimating proportions of objects and materials imaged within the instantaneous field of view of a multispectral sensor were developed further. Improvements in the basic proportion estimation algorithm were devised as well as improved alien object detection procedures. Also, a simplified signature set analysis scheme was introduced for determining the adequacy of signature set geometry for satisfactory proportion estimation. Averaging procedures used in conjunction with the mixtures algorithm were examined theoretically and applied to artificially generated multispectral data. A computationally simpler estimator was considered and found unsatisfactory. Experiments conducted to find a suitable procedure for setting the alien object threshold yielded little definitive result. Mixtures procedures were used on a limited amount of ERTS data to estimate wheat proportion in selected areas. Results were unsatisfactory, partly because of the ill-conditioned nature of the pure signature set.

Horwitz, H. M.↗

Spatially-Explicit Monitoring of Crop Photosynthetic Capacity Through the Use of Space-Based Chlorophyll Fluorescence Data

Plant functional traits such as photosynthetic capacity are critical parameters for terrestrial biosphere models. However, their spatial and temporal characteristics are still poorly represented. In this study, we used satellite observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) to estimate top-of-canopy photosynthetic capacity (maximum carboxylation rate, V(sub cmax) at a reference temperature of 25 deg C) for crops, which was in turn utilized to simulate regional gross primary production (GPP). We first estimate the key parameter, V(sub cmax), in the widely-used FvCB photosynthesis model using field measurements of CO2 and water fluxes during 2007-2012 at seven crop eddy covariance flux sites over the US Corn Belt. The results showed that satellite far-red SIF retrievals have a stronger link to V(sub cmax) at the seasonal scale (R(squared)=0.70 for C4 and R(squared)=0.63 for C3 crop) as compared with widely-used vegetation indices. We calibrate an empirical model linking V(sub cmax) with SIF that was used to estimate spatially and temporally varying crop V(sub cmax) for the US Corn Belt region. The resulting V(sub cmax) maps are used together with meteorological data from MERRA reanalysis data and vegetation structural parameters derived from the satellite- based spectral reflectance data to constrain the Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy (SCOPE) balance model in order to estimate regional crop GPP. Our results show a substantial improvement in the seasonal and spatial patterns of cropland GPP when compared with crop yield inventory data. The evaluation with tall tower atmospheric CO2 measurements further supports our estimation of spatiotemporal V(sub cmax) from space-borne SIF. Considering that SIF has a direct link to photosynthetic activity, our findings highlight the potential to infer regional V(sub cmax) using remotely sensed SIF data and to use this information for a better quantification of regional cropland carbon cycles.

Drought↗

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimation of Unbiased Expectation via Sample Reuse and the Low Variance Estimation of Asymptotic Rates

A new variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator [5, 3, 9, 12] is presented for the estimation of expectation statistics that utilizes sample reuse in specified levels, explicitly removes approximation error bias associated with numerically computed output quantities of interest that have an asymptotic limit behavior, and permits a low variance estimate of the asymptotic rate of convergence to that limit. In addition, it is shown that this new multilevel Monte Carlo variant can yield a computational cost savings. A review of Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimators is presented that includes analysis of expected value, expected mean squared error, and the calculation of optimized multilevel sample size parameters. The multilevel Monte Carlo estimator produces estimates of expectation for numerically approximated output quantities of interest that are biased by approximation error. When the quantity of interest can be modeled as the asymptotic limit of numerically approximated output quantities of interest, it is theoretically possible to remove this approximation error bias in the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator. In actual implementations, however, this procedure is unreliable due to statistical variability and inaccuracy in estimating the needed asymptotic limit. Analysis and numerical experiment show that the proposed variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo method greatly reduces (in some cases eliminates) the statistical variability in this limit estimation.

Barth, Timothy↗

A Comparison of Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yields of Carbon and Selected Polymers Exposed in Ground Based Facilities and in Low Earth Orbit

A comparison of the relative erosion yields (volume of material removed per oxygen atom arriving) for FEP Teflon, polyethylene, and pyrolytic graphite with respect to Kapton HN was performed in an atomic oxygen directed beam system, in a plasma asher, and in space on the EOIM-III (Evaluation of Oxygen Interaction with Materials-III) flight experiment. This comparison was performed to determine the sensitivity of material reaction to atomic oxygen flux, atomic oxygen fluence, and vacuum ultraviolet radiation for enabling accurate estimates of durability in ground based facilities. The relative erosion yield of pyrolytic graphite was found not to be sensitive to these factors, that for FEP was sensitive slightly to fluence and possibly ions, and that for polyethylene was found to be partially VUV and flux sensitive but more sensitive to an unknown factor. Results indicate that the ability to use these facilities for material relative durability prediction is great as long as the sensitivity of particular materials to conditions such as VUV, and atomic oxygen flux and fluence are taken into account. When testing materials of a particular group such as teflon, it may be best to use a witness sample made of a similar material that has some available space data on it. This would enable one to predict an equivalent exposure in the ground based facility.

Rutledge, Sharon K.↗

Fast frequency acquisition via adaptive least squares algorithm

A new least squares algorithm is proposed and investigated for fast frequency and phase acquisition of sinusoids in the presence of noise. This algorithm is a special case of more general, adaptive parameter-estimation techniques. The advantages of the algorithms are their conceptual simplicity, flexibility and applicability to general situations. For example, the frequency to be acquired can be time varying, and the noise can be nonGaussian, nonstationary and colored. As the proposed algorithm can be made recursive in the number of observations, it is not necessary to have a priori knowledge of the received signal-to-noise ratio or to specify the measurement time. This would be required for batch processing techniques, such as the fast Fourier transform (FFT). The proposed algorithm improves the frequency estimate on a recursive basis as more and more observations are obtained. When the algorithm is applied in real time, it has the extra advantage that the observations need not be stored. The algorithm also yields a real time confidence measure as to the accuracy of the estimator.

Kumar, R.↗

Fast frequency acquisition via adaptive least squares algorithm

A new least squares algorithm is proposed and investigated for fast frequency and phase acquisition of sinusoids in the presence of noise. This algorithm is a special case of more general, adaptive parameter-estimation techniques. The advantages of the algorithms are their conceptual simplicity, flexibility and applicability to general situations. For example, the frequency to be acquired can be time varying, and the noise can be non-Gaussian, nonstationary and colored. As the proposed algorithm can be made recursive in the number of observations, it is not necessary to have a priori knowledge of the received signal-to-noise ratio or to specify the measurement time. This would be required for batch processing techniques, such as the fast Fourier transform (FFT). The proposed algorithm improves the frequency estimate on a recursive basis as more and more observations are obtained. When the algorithm is applied in real time, it has the extra advantage that the observations need not be stored. The algorithm also yields a real time confidence measure as to the accuracy of the estimator.

Kumar, Rajendra↗

Reliability of COPVs Accounting for Margin of Safety on Design Burst

In this paper, the stress rupture reliability of Carbon/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) is examined utilizing the classic Phoenix model and accounting for the differences between the design and the actual burst pressure, and the liner contribution effects. Stress rupture life primarily depends upon the fiber stress ratio which is defined as the ratio of stress in fibers at the maximum expected operating pressure to actual delivered fiber strength. The actual delivered fiber strength is calculated using the actual burst pressures of vessels established through burst tests. However, during the design phase the actual burst pressure is generally not known and to estimate the reliability of the vessels calculations are usually performed based upon the design burst pressure only. Since the design burst is lower than the actual burst, this process yields a much higher value for the stress ratio and consequently a conservative estimate for the reliability. Other complications arise due to the fact that the actual burst pressure and the liner contributions have inherent variability and therefore must be treated as random variables in order to compute the stress rupture reliability. Furthermore, the model parameters, which have to be established based on stress rupture tests of subscale vessels or coupons, have significant variability as well due to limited available data and hence must be properly accounted for. In this work an assessment of reliability of COPVs including both parameter uncertainties and physical variability inherent in liner and overwrap material behavior is made and estimates are provided in terms of degree of uncertainty in the actual burst pressure and the liner load sharing.

Murthy, Pappu L.N.↗

Criteria for the optimal design of experimental tests

Some of the basic concepts are unified that were developed for the problem of finding optimal approximating functions which relate a set of controlled variables to a measurable response. The techniques have the potential for reducing the amount of testing required in experimental investigations. Specifically, two low-order polynomial models are considered as approximations to unknown functionships. For each model, optimal means of designing experimental tests are presented which, for a modest number of measurements, yield prediction equations that minimize the error of an estimated response anywhere inside a selected region of experimentation. Moreover, examples are provided for both models to illustrate their use. Finally, an analysis of a second-order prediction equation is given to illustrate ways of determining maximum or minimum responses inside the experimentation region.

Canavos, G. C.↗

Experimental determination of the principal moments of inertia of the Helios prototype spacecraft

The moment of inertia of the Helios Spacecraft about its spin axis was determined by use of a roll-fixture using two sets of crossed flexure pivots as elastic constraints. The test procedure entailed measurement of a system oscillation period with each of a set of added moment-of-inertia increments. The tare effect of the fixture was determined by a like process and was subtracted from the gross value to yield the spacecraft roll moment of inertia to an estimated accuracy of 0.2%. Lateral moments of inertia (i.e., about each of three axes normal to the spin axis) were determined by a gravity pendulum method that makes use of the fact that any physical pendulum has a minimum period of oscillation determined by a particular distance from the axis of rotation to the system center of gravity.

Gayman, W. H.↗

Solar flux and its variations

Data are presented on the solar irradiance as derived from a number of sources. An attempt was made to bring these data onto a uniform scale. Summation of fluxes at all wavelengths yields a figure of 1357.826 for the solar constant. Estimates are made of the solar flux variations due to flares, active regions (slowly varying component), 27-day period, and the 11-yr cycle. Solar activity does not produce a significant variation in the value of the solar constant. Variations in the X-ray and EUV portions of the solar flux may be several orders of magnitude during solar activity, especially at times of major flares. It is established that these short wavelength flux enhancements cause significant changes in the terrestrial ionosphere.

Smith, E. V. P.↗

Parameter estimation for slit-type scanning sensors

The Infrared Astronomical Satellite, scheduled for launch into a 900 km near-polar orbit in August 1982, will perform an infrared point source survey by scanning the sky with slit-type sensors. The description of position information is shown to require the use of a non-Gaussian random variable. Methods are described for deciding whether separate detections stem from a single common source, and a formulism is developed for the scan-to-scan problems of identifying multiple sightings of inertially fixed point sources for combining their individual measurements into a refined estimate. Several cases are given where the general theory yields results which are quite different from the corresponding Gaussian applications, showing that argument by Gaussian analogy would lead to error.

Fowler, J. W.↗

Air Brayton Solar Receiver, phase 1

A six month analysis and conceptual design study of an open cycle Air Brayton Solar Receiver (ABSR) for use on a tracking, parabolic solar concentrator are discussed. The ABSR, which includes a buffer storage system, is designed to provide inlet air to a power conversion unit. Parametric analyses, conceptual design, interface requirements, and production cost estimates are described. The design features were optimized to yield a zero maintenance, low cost, high efficiency concept that will provide a 30 year operational life.

Zimmerman, D. K.↗

Characteristics of downdrafts and turbulence within thunderstorms

Triple Doppler radar observations are presented of downdrafts and turbulence within three convective cloud systems that formed over the South Park region of central Colorado. Downdrafts and turbulence are treated together here because of the relationship suggested by the fact that both can be produced by the mixing of cloudy and dry environmental air. What is more, overlays of estimated turbulent kinetic energy dissipation on general flow patterns yield additional information (including the locations of entrainment) on circulations within convective clouds. The relationship between downdrafts and turbulence is established, and examples are presented of weak to moderate downdrafts and turbulence within three convective storms. The differences in downdraft strength and turbulence intensity in the three cases examined are analyzed.

Knupp, K. R.↗