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NASA NTRS2020

Process for Detecting Strong Convection Using an Airborne, Doppler, Weather Radar

This document presents a methodology for producing a measure of the convective wind field ahead of an aircraft using a modern, airborne, Doppler, weather radar. The processes and hardware requirements are consistent with the capabilities found in modern commercial weather radars commonly in use on commercial transport aircraft. The fundamental process is developed as well as results from ground and flight testing are described. This application appears sufficiently mature to allow its use in future NASA flight campaigns that will search for convective cells. If this application continues to perform successfully, it will be recommended to avionics manufacturing colleagues for inclusion into future commercial, airborne, Doppler, weather radars to aide pilots with flight operations and further enhance aviation safety.

Steven D. Harrah↗

NASA NTRS2021

Conceptualizing the Impact of Dust Contaminated Infrared Radiances on Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction systems depend on Hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (HIS) data, yet the impacts of dust-contaminated HIS radiances on weather forecasts has not been quantified. To determine the impact of dust aerosol on HIS radiance assimilation, we use a modified radiance assimilation system employing a one-dimensional variational assimilation system (1DVAR) developed under the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Numerical Weather Prediction–Satellite Application Facility (NWP-SAF) project, which uses the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV). Dust aerosol impacts on analyzed temperature and moisture fields are quantified using synthetic HIS observations from rawinsonde, Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET), and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Specifically, a unit dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) contamination at 550 nm can introduce larger than 2.4 and 8.6 K peak biases in analyzed temperature and dewpoint, respectively, over our test domain. We hypothesize that aerosol observations, or even possibly forecasts from aerosol predication models, may be used operationally to mitigate dust induced temperature and moisture analysis biases through forward radiative transfer modeling.

Jared W. Marquis↗

NASA NTRS2021

Weather Intelligent Navigation Data and Models for Aviation Planning (WINDMAP)

WINDMAP addresses the emerging needs in the aviation community of providing real-time weather forecasting to improve the safety of low altitude aircraft operations. This is accomplished through the integration of real-time observations from autonomous systems, such as drones and urban air taxis, with numerical weather prediction models and flight management and safety systems. To solve this problem, several technical challenges have been identified. These include (1) developing autonomous UAS capable of conducting observations accurately and reliably; (2) determining the number and frequency of required observations and the sensitivity of these observations in data sparse regions of the lower atmosphere;(3) assimilating dense observational data into models in real-time with sufficient resolution and accuracy; (4) developing novel physics-based reduced order models capable of incorporating diverse data sets; and (5)integrating real-time forecasting into UTM and DAA (detect-and-avoid) architectures for path planning and navigation. The goal of this proposed effort is to demonstrate the value of using small UAS to collect measurements of the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the lower atmosphere at scales that match or exceed the spatio-temporal resolution of today’s best numerical weather prediction models

Koushik Datta↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting the Convergence of Evidence in Satellite Data for Advanced Weather Index Insurance Design

The goal of drought-related weather index insurance (WII) is to protect smallholder farmers against the risk of weather shocks and to increase their agricultural productivity. Estimates of precipitation and vegetation greenness are the two dominant satellite datasets. However, ignoring additional moisture- and energy-related processes that influence the response of vegetation to rainfall leads to an incomplete representation of the hydrologic cycle. This study evaluates the added value of considering multiple independent satellite-based variables to design, calibrate, and validate weather insurance indices on the African continent. The satellite data include two rainfall datasets, soil moisture, the evaporative stress index (ESI), and vegetation greenness. We limit artificial advantages by resampling all datasets to the same spatial (0.25°) and temporal (monthly) resolution, although datasets with a higher spatial resolution might have an added value, if considered as the single source of information for localized applications. A higher correlation coefficient between the moisture-focused variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an indicator for vegetation vigor, provides evidence for the datasets’ capability to capture agricultural drought conditions on the ground. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset, soil moisture, and ESI show higher correlations with the (lagged) NDVI in large parts of Africa, for different land covers and various climate zones, than the African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2), rainfall dataset, which is often used in WII. A comparison to drought years as reported by farmers in Ethiopia, Senegal, and Zambia indicates a high “hit rate” of all satellite-derived anomalies regarding the detection of severe droughts but limitations regarding moderate drought events.

drought↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining Weathering of Magnesite in an Arid Environment: Implications For Jezero Crater

Introduction:Orbiter data indicatethe presence of carbonates in severallocations on the surface of Mars[1],but Jezero crater, landing site of the Perseverancerover,is the only known location where carbonatesap-pear coincident with evidence of fluvialand lacustrineactivity [2].On Earth, carbonates in close proximity to these paleoenvironments mayindicatethe presence of past microbial life,like stromatolites[3], that could re-sult inbiosignatures [2]. However,in other cases,car-bonates can also form throughthe alteration of mafic materialwiththe introductionof carbonic acid[4].Hy-drated magnesites have also been found in evaporative environments along lake shores, and in playas[5,6,7].Correctly interpreting past carbonates on Mars is there-fore critical in the search for past signs of life. In Jezero crater,both thenorthernand western fans haveMg-rich carbonates intermixed with olivine-rich material[8].According to CRISM data, magnesite(MgCO3), along with hydromagnesite(Mg5(CO3)4(OH)2•4H2O), arepotential candidatesfor these Mg-carbonates [2]. Considering the spatial con-text with olivine,there aremultiplepotential explana-tions for the presence ofMg-carbonatesin this locationincludingin-situformation via alterationof olivine-rich materialwith carbonic acid,transportationfrom farther up in the watershed, or precipitation of lacustrine car-bonates[2]. The formation of hydromagnesite rather than magnesite is favored when Mg2+saturated solutions have a high CO32-/HCO3-ratio, which, on Earth, is thought to be caused byinflow of groundwater [4]. Additionally, Mg-carbonates tend to precipitate under high pH condi-tions and are unstable at lower pH conditions [5]. Hy-dromagnesite is stable at atmospheric CO2pressure and temperature conditions common to most Earth surface environments [9]. However, it is subject to transfor-mation to magnesite after dehydration and concomitant brucite formation or dissolution and reprecipitation [10].Previousresearch suggests that hydrated car-bonates, including hydromagnesite, can formas weath-ering productsof mafic minerals in the presenceof H2O and CO2in subfreezing temperatures and would not de-hydrate under Martian atmospheric conditions [11,12].It is critical to understand the formation conditions of Mg-carbonatesbecause of the different implications for the past history of Martian environments. Therefore, in this work we are investigating the weathering of Mg-carbonatesin arid environments to helpbetter understand Mg-carbonates in Jezero crater. Study Area:The Ala-Mar Mines(East and West)near Ely, NVare the site ofmultiple magnesitedepositsfound within a calcareous tuff formationthat overlies Tertiary aged volcanic rocks.Here,magnesiteis formed via the alteration of the calcareous tuff and occurs innodules, veins,and lenses[13]. Previous work suggests magnesite deposits are associated with faults [13]. Within the West Mine, magnesite can be found in two maincontexts: (1) relatively circular zones of cauli-flower-like material found within (2) a more massivelensthat is heavily fractured on the surface.Methods.Samplesof both the cauliflower texture and more massive materialwere collectedat Ala Mar West Mine. Both samples were thenpowdered, sieved and analyzed with an inXitu Terra Portable XRD. The program QualX was used to identify potential mineral phases [14].Both samples were also optically inspected using 10x and 20x hand lenses.Figure 1. XRD patterns for the cauliflower magnesite (top) and massive magnesite (bottom). Ongoing and future work on the samples discussed above includes scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), and near-infra-red spectroscopy to determine whether hydromagnesite is present. Separation and analysis of the clay-size frac-tionby XRD will helpto better identify any phyllosili-cate phases present. Results and Discussion:Both textures are a white to light tan with a porcelain luster on weathered sur-faces, along with minor iron staining in some areas. Likewise, both textures are white with a porcelain luster on fresh surfaces. When broken apart, the massive mag-nesite shows macroscopic crystals, unlike the cauli-flower magnesite. XRD analysis shows that both samples have high concentrationsof magnesite with lesser amounts of thecarbonatemineral huntite(Mg3Ca(CO3)4; Figure1).The more massive samplecontainsa serpentine-groupmineral,with lizardite being apotential candidate. The cauliflower sample has several minor peaks that may correspond to hydromagnesite(Figure 1), although more work is needed to confirm this.Additionally, thecauliflower deposits closely resemble hydromagnesite deposits found in southwestern Turkey, formed via mi-crobialites[15].As such, it is likely that moreaqueous alterationor weatheringis occurring at the locations where the cauliflower magnesite is present. However, additional field work will need to be conducted to con-firm this hypothesis. Conclusions and Future Work:Future work will include field mapping of fault locations andadditional samplingof the different magnesite types as well as of the calcareous tuffmaterial.We will also look specifi-cally for potential weathering products of magnesite in this arid location, which may yield important insight into the Mg-carbonates located in Jezero crater. XRD analyses on aPANalytical XRDusing non-ambient stages will be used to investigate the stability of hydro-magnesiteat different humiditiesand temperatures, which has implications for samples to bereturned to Earth in the future. Additionally, thermal and evolved gas analysis of magnesite and hydromagnesite will be compared to results from Gale Craterto help interpret the mineralogy inthat location[16]. The results of this research will further ourunderstanding of carbonate for-mationin volcanic settingsandtheirweathering pro-cessesin arid environments. Acknowledgments:We acknowledge funding for this research from Jacobs Technology at the Johnson Space Center.We would also like to thank Ngoc Luu, Christopher Adcock, Richard Allanson, and the rest of the UNLV Soil Science Teamfor their continued sup-portwith troubleshooting and otherlab work. References:[1] Ehlmann, B.L., and Edwards, C.S. (2014) Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sci., 42, 291–315. [2] Horgan, B.H.N., et al. (2020) Icarus, 339, 113526. [3] Bosak, T., et al. (2013) Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sci, 41, 21–44. [4] Pohl, W.L. (1989) Gebriider Borntraege, 28, 1-13. [5] Müller, G., et al. (1972) Die Naturwissenschaften, 59, 158–164. [6] Walter, M.R., et al. (1973) Journal of Sedimentary Pe-trology, 43, 1021–1030. [7] Braithwaite, C.J.R., and Zedef, V. (1994) Sedimentary Geology, 92, 1–5. [8] Goudge, T.A., et al. (2015) JGR: Planets, 120, 775–808. [9] Langmuir, D. (1965) Journal of Geology, 73, 730–754. [10] Zhang, P., et al. (2000) Applied Geo-chem., 286, 1748–1753. [11] Calvin, W.M., et al. (1994) JGR, 99, 14659-14675. [12]Russell, M.J., et al. (1999) Journal of the Geological Society of London, v. 156, p. 869–888. [13] Faust, G.T., and Callaghan, E. (1948) GSA Bulletin, 59, 11–74. [14] Altomare, A., et al. (2015) J. of Applied Crystallography, 48, 598–603. [15] Zedef, V.,et al. (2000) Economic Geology, 95, 429–445. [16] Leshin, L.A. et al., (2013) Science, 341, 1–9

A W Provow↗

NASA NTRS2021

Conceptualizing the Impact of Dust-Contaminated Infrared Radiances on Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction

Jared W Marquis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laboratory Investigation of the Effect of Venusian Weathering on Mineral Spectra

Introduction: The recent selection of two missions to Venus has renewed the importance of deter-mining weathering reactions between minerals and the Venusian atmosphere, and the spectral signatures of minerals before, during, and after these reactions. The rate at which weathering reactions progress also constrain show long unstable minerals will be present on the surface (e.g., [1]), and enables the use of mineralogy as a constraint on surface age(e.g., [2-3]).In order to gain an understanding of how mineral compositions and spectra change with weathering, we have begun conducting experiments in a 1 atm experimental setup at Wesleyan University. This setup exposes minerals to the temperature and most abundant gases of the Venus atmosphere (CO2, SO2, N2).We conducted initial experiments using biotite, calcite, and montmorillonite in order to test our methodology with minerals that may be relevant to recording the history of water on Venus. Methods: Experiments were conducted in Thermo Fisher Scientific Lindberg/Blue M Mini-Mite horizontal tube furnaces at Wesleyan University. Experiments used natural mineral chips and powders, and were conducted at 1 atmosphere and 460 °C under pre-mixed gases provided by Air Gas(Table 1). The furnaces are set up in a flow through configuration so that solid samples are exposed to a fixed gas composition, and quartz glass process tubes were used in all experiments (1/4” diameter for experiment V4, ½” diameter for all others). These conditions were maintained for the du-rations listed in Table 1, at which point the furnace was turned off with gas flowing until the sample was cool enough to extract under N2and be placed in a desiccator for storage. Run products were carbon coated and examined using a Hitachi SU5000 Field Emission Gun Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) equipped with an EDAX Octane Pro EDS detector located at Wesley-an University. Visible-Near Infrared Spectroscopy (VNIR) analysis was performed on powdered samples under a nitrogen atmosphere using an ASD Fieldspec Proover the 350-2500 nm range. Powdered mineral samples were milled to a particle size of < 45μm and were spiked with an internal standard (Al2O3, corundum) to obtain quantitative mineralogy. Samples were analyzed using a Panalytical X’Pert pro X-ray Diffractometer (XRD), with an X’Celerator high speed detector and Co Kα radiation, with data collected at a step size of 0.02 ̊/minute step counting rate from 2 to 80 degrees 2θ at 45 mA/40kV in the X-ray Diffraction Laboratory located at NASA Johnson Space Center. Materials Data Inc (MDI) software suite, JadeTMv9 was used for Rietveld refinement to determine phase abundances and mineral identification by comparing XRD patterns to International Center for Diffraction Data (ICDD) database patterns. Table 1: Experimental matrix. Experiment Name Duration (Days)Gas Com-position (trace gas)MineralsV487SO2/N2(1.4%)Montmorillonite, biotiteV519SO2/N2(1.4%)CalciteV619CO2/SO2/N2(1.4% SO2, 2.1% N2)Montmorillonite, biotiteV828SO2/N2(1.4%)Biotite, calcite Results: Calcite. In both experiments, calcite was exposed to the SO2/N2gas mixture, and in both experimental run products, XRD analysis detected anhydrite, which is consistent with EDS measurements conducted in the SEM. The XRD analyses show greater amounts of anhydrite present after 28 days than 19, suggesting the calcite reaction progressed further given longer duration. Grain surface morphology as seen in the SEM also shows secondary mineral growth (Fig. 1). VNIR spectra show no change, as expected since anhydrite lacks spectral features in this wavelength range. Montmorillonite. Montmorillonite was exposed to two different gas mixtures, the SO2/N2mix and CO2/SO2/N2mix over different durations (87 and 19 days, respectively). VNIR analyses of both run products show a reduction in the 1441and1910 nm water features as well as a shift of the 1411 and 2011 nm features to shorter wavelengths that may indicate re-structuring in the crystal lattice and the production of amorphous phases [4]. XRD results are consistent with this, showing a shift of the 001 peak from 15Åto 10Åin both run products. The amount of X-ray amorphous material in the montmorillonite run products was greater than that present in the unreacted clay, being the greatest in the 87 day V4 experiment. No other secondary phases were detected in the run products, however sulfur was present in EDS analyses of powder samples.

A R Santos↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characteristics of Mineralogy and Space Weathering Observed on the Grains in the Fine Fraction Samples Returned From the C-type Asteroid Ryugu.

Samples returned from near-Earth C-type asteroid Ryugu by the JAXA Hayabusa2 spacecraft have been investigated from June, 2021. Our Min-Pet Fine ("sand") sub-team have investigated mineralogy and petrology and space weathering of grains in the fine fraction of the samples. Space weathering is alteration induced mainly by solar wind irradiation and micrometeoroid impact. Here, we report mineralogy and microstructural and chemical features related to space weathering of Ryugu grains.

Takaaki Noguchi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mineralogy and space weathering found in the fine-grained samples returned from the C-type asteroid Ryugu

The JAXA Hayabusa2 spacecraft returned samples from near-Earth C-type asteroid Ryugu. Our Hayabusa2-initial-analysisMin-Pet Fine (“Sand”) team has investigated mineralogy and petrology and space weathering of grains in the fine-grained fraction of the samples. Space weathering is alteration induced mainly by solar wind irradiation and micrometeoroid impact. Here, we report the mineralogy, microstructural, and chemical features related to space weathering of the Ryugu grains.

Takaaki Noguchi↗

NASA NTRS2022

Recommending Low-Cost Compact Space Environment and Space Weather Effects Sensor Suites for NASA Missions

As miniaturized spacecraft (e.g., cubesats and smallsats) and instrumentation become an increasingly indispensable part of space exploration and scientific investigations, it is important to understand their potential susceptibility to space weather impacts resulting from the sometimes volatile space environment. There are a multitude of complexities involved in how space environment interacts with different space hardware/electronics. Measurements of such impacts, however, have been lacking. Therefore, we recommend developing and/or procuring low-cost, low-power consumption, and compact sensor suites (mainly for space weather and impact purposes) and flying them on all future NASA (and, more generally, U.S) missions in order to measure and quantify space weather impacts, in addition to the main instrumentation.

Yihua Zheng↗

NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer for Moon / Mars Surface Space Weather Monitoring and Crew Protection (CEPS)

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces. The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Thermal testing results point to a needed design modification to mitigate high temperatures the detector will see in space. Radiation susceptibility testing was conducted to assess the radiation hardness of the CdTe-Timepix assembly. Overall, the assembly continued to operate up to 100 kRad of gamma-ray exposure. The system calibration did show drift over time but recovered once exposure was complete.

Dan James Fry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceborne Passive-Microwave and Visible/IR Observations of Severe Weather: Leveraging Multiple Perspectives for Detection, Validation, and Climatologies

Severe weather phenomena not only are responsible for damages to property, infrastructure, and agriculture, they are also difficult to measure in-situ and have been associated with large errors and uncertainties in precipitation estimation that pose challenges to establishing the current climatology of severe storms and their future trend in a changing Earth system. Severe convection exhibits distinct signatures in remote-sensing datasets, where it is manifested as textured or overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR imagery, or resulting a prominent brightness temperature depression in passive-microwave imagery. These distinct deep convective signatures in spaceborne datasets have been leveraged to analyze severe thunderstorms, create climatologies, improve prediction, and provide a method of detection around the globe where traditional ground-based data may be inconsistent or unavailable. Visible/IR and passive-microwave instruments are powerful tools for detecting severe thunderstorms, however, these datasets exhibit key limitations when examined individually: passive-microwave channels have large footprint and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. The visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. We investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together and assess the extent to which these datasets can be combined to improve severe thunderstorm detection. We pair passive microwave, IR, and visible signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis to characterize potentially severe convective storms observed by Aqua MODIS and AMSR-E. We will discuss how MODIS and AMSR-E signatures may be used together to diagnose storm properties and processes, and how the interrelationships between the signatures varies seasonally and geographically.

Sarah D. Bang↗

NASA NTRS2023

Time Series of Magnetic Field Parameters Extracted from Merged Space-Weather MDI/HMI Active Region Patches as Potential Tool for Solar Flare Forecasting

Space-Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARPs) and Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs) are two recently developed data products, which have been used for solar flare prediction studies. The present work is an effort to expand the application of SMARP and SHARP summary heliomagnetic parameters to the forecasting of solar flares. A new data product was derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP and SHARP summary parameter data series, which were further converted into two-dimensional arrays by selecting time slices corresponding to R-value maxima, where R-value is a measure of the unsigned magnetic flux near polarity inversion lines. The resulting combined MDI-HMI time series currently span the period between April 4, 1996 and December 13, 2022, and can be extended to a more recent date, providing an opportunity to correlate and compare them with other solar activity parameters, such as the daily solar flare index, which is computed as a sum of the product of GOES X-ray flare magnitude and flare duration, for all M- and X-class flares during a day. Preliminary results demonstrate a significant overall correlation, with Pearson coefficients between 0.339 and 0.627. In addition, an oscillating pattern is seen in the daily-averaged sliding-window correlation coefficient. Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a leader-follower dynamic exists in some parameters, especially R-value, where they lead the flare index by at least several days, which may have potential for further application in space weather forecasting.

Heliophysics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗

NASA NTRS2023

Some Applications of SiFSAP for Wildfires, Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics Studies

The Single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) derived from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP and JPSS have a spatial resolution ( ~14.5 km) better than most global weather and climate models. Most recent improvement in the quality of these products enables us to use these high-resolution observation-based sounding data for air quality, weather and atmospheric dynamics studies. A few cases studies through a synergistic use of SiFSAP from S-NPP and J-1 and the reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 will be presented, which include a process-oriented analysis of (1) a stratospheric intrusion (SI) event occurred on June 11-13, 2017 in the southwestern US, (2) one extreme cold air break (CAO) episode occurred on 27-31 January 2019 across much of the US Midwest and its impact from stratospheric downward transport, and (3) dynamic transport of carbon monoxide (CO) associated with Australia’s unprecedented fire from the end of 2019 to early 2020. These examples will demonstrate the value of SiFSAP for weather, atmospheric dynamics, air quality, wildfires studies and for model evaluations.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Census of Severe Weather as Observed From Aqua: Visible/IR and Passive-Microwave Perspectives of Severe Convection

Severe weather phenomena represent the extreme upper end of the spectrum of convection and precipitation and tend to be highly localized and relatively rare compared to the rest of the distribution, but they can cause damage and loss disproportionate to their scale and frequency. Fortunately, severe convection exhibits distinct signatures in spaceborne remote-sensing datasets (e.g. overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR, or brightness temperature depressions in passive-microwave imagery). Leveraging these signatures individually has become a long-established practice to detect, analyze and establish climatologies of severe thunderstorms, especially in instances where traditional ground-based data may be unavailable. Spaceborne visible/IR and passive-microwave approaches are not without their pitfalls, however: passive-microwave channels have large footprints and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. Visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. To address this, we investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together and assess the extent to which these datasets can be combined to improve severe thunderstorm detection. We pair AMSR-E and MODIS signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis in six different geographical regimes throughout the Aqua domain. We present a census of potentially severe convective storms and their environments as seen by multiple instruments simultaneously, investigating how MODIS and AMSR-E signatures may be used together to diagnose storm properties and processes, and how the interrelationships between the signatures varies seasonally and geographically. Using statistical machine learning analysis, we aim to quantify the optimal MODIS and AMSR-E parameter sets for discriminating severe from non-severe storm cells and assess what improvement (if any) in detection results from combining the IR, visible, and microwave datasets.

Sarah Bang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimates of Future Numerical Weather Prediction Impacts from Hyperspectral Sounders

The United States’ satellite programs are currently in the process of evaluating the future of satellite observations of the Earth’s atmosphere, both as an individual nation and within the context of international partnerships. In an effort to better understand the impacts of various alternatives, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework has been utilized to evaluate several configurations of the international hyperspectral infrared sounder constellation from the perspective of global numerical weather prediction (NWP). This was done with an emphasis on the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), planned to launch in the mid-2030s, and similar planned missions from international partners. GXS, in addition to contributions from EUMETSAT and JMA, will form a global ring of geostationary sounders consistent with the WMO’s 2040 vision. In addition to a novel geostationary IR sounder program, considerations extend to the future of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sounder program with the upcoming demise of several existing instruments and plans for future missions ongoing. The GMAO OSSE framework has examined the potential roles of GEO and LEO sounders in weather prediction improvement. Overall, the inclusion of both GEO sounders in a global ring and LEO sounders produces the most beneficial observation impact and the most accurate global weather forecasts as evaluated using several metrics, including hurricanes and the FSOI.

Erica Mcgrath-Spangler↗