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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deep Neural Network Based Unsteady Flamelet Progress Variable Approach in a Supersonic Combustor

Higher dimensional flamelet manifolds are essential in capturing the coupled effects of pressure gradients and unsteady chemical kinetics observed in supersonic combustion applications. Previous studies have validated the feasibility of using deep neural networks as an alternative to computation-ally intensive multidimensional flamelet table storage and lookup. This approach has demonstrated a significant reduction in memory footprint and enabled the use of larger dimensional tabulated manifolds for supersonic combustion in canonical problems. In this study, the Unsteady Flamelet Progress Variable (UFPV)-ANN model implemented in the VULCAN-CFD code is validated by the Burrows-Kurkov supersonic mixing/combustion configuration. The well characterized experimental problem consists of hydrogen injection into a supersonic vitiated crossflow that results in a lifted flame structure. The initial model consists of a 4-dimensional table where the independent variables Z, C, Xst, P are tabulated using an unsteady flamelet code with boundary conditions corresponding to the vitiated air conditions. The results show the development of a lifted flame structure and over-all acceptable agreement with finite-rate chemistry (FRC) simulation and the experimental data. Moreover, direct mapping between the independent variables and the flamelet table is replaced by a deep neural network for significant memory reduction. The results indicate that the UFPV-ANN approach can retrieve the same solution as the memory intensive lookup table approach.

Flamelet↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Path to Improving Simulated Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea using Airborne In Situ Observations of Subgrid-Scale Variability

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. One of the main reasons for this problem are the possible unrealistic assumptions that models/reanalyses make about the subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of meteorological properties, as well as the relationship between SGS variability and grid-scale (GS) cloud properties. We utilize cloud and thermodynamic data of low level (primarily) liquid clouds collected from two aircraft campaigns conducted over the Beaufort Sea to better understand and characterize this problem. Examining data from the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign reveals that GS cloud water variability is closely related with SGS distribution of total water (i.e. water vapor + cloud water). Multiple models/reanalyses use SGS supersaturated total water (relative to GS saturation) as a threshold for partitioning available water for condensation, and indeed we find significant correlation between GS cloud water and SGS supersaturation. However, we also find that the assumption of a static threshold of 100% saturation to be unrealistic. Empirical calculations from the ARISE data show a large sensitivity of this threshold to GS relative humidity, and so a microphysical parameterization allowing the threshold to vary according to GS thermodynamic properties may result in more realistic GS cloud water values. Finally, to determine how sensitive the ARISE-derived results are to that particular campaign, we include additional data from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE) conducted in 1998. The inclusion of the second dataset will help with demonstrating the robustness of the results and their utility in improving the representation of Arctic clouds in models and reanalyses.

J Brant Dodson↗
NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variable Noise Reduction Systems for a Notional Supersonic Business Jet

A variable noise reduction system consists of equipment on board an airplane that is designed to reduce noise in the vicinity of airports. They are anticipated to be used on supersonic civil aircraft currently under development by industry. They are investigated in this paper for a notional 55-tonne supersonic business jet. The airplane concept was developed by NASA for use in environmental impact studies conducted by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The variable noise reduction system investigated implements a programmed thrust lapse procedure and a programmed flap retraction procedure. The procedures are expected to reduce noise in aircraft certification as well as in operational practice. Behavior of the aircraft in a noise certification setting is considered. Variables of the procedures are optimized to reduce noise levels. Certification considerations unique to these systems are discussed for transport-category large airplanes and for jet-powered airplanes. A novel method for evaluating lateral noise is used.

Aircraft noise↗
NASA NTRS2021

Geomagnetically Induced Currents at Middle Latitudes: 1. Quiet-Time Variability

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) at middle latitudes have received increased attention after reported power grid disruptions due to geomagnetic disturbances. However, quantifying the risk to the electric power grid at middle latitudes is difficult without understanding how the GIC sensors respond to geomagnetic activity on a daily basis. Therefore, in this study the question “Do measured GICs have distinguishable and quantifiable long-period and short-period characteristics?” is addressed. The study focuses on the long-term variability of measured GIC, and establishes the extent to which the variability relates to quiet-time geomagnetic activity. GIC quiet-day curves (QDCs) are computed from measured data for each GIC node, covering all four seasons, and then compared with the seasonal variability of thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE- GCM)-simulated neutral wind and height-integrated current density. The results show strong evidence that the middle-latitude nodes routinely respond to the tidal-driven Sq variation, with a local time and seasonal dependence on the direction of the ionospheric currents, which is specific to each node. The strong dependence of GICs on the Sq currents demonstrates that the GIC QDCs may be employed as a robust baseline from which to quantify the significance of GICs during geomagnetically active times and to isolate those variations to study independently. The QDC-based significance score computed in this study provides power utilities with a node-specific measure of the geomagnetic significance of a given GIC observation. Finally, this study shows that the power grid acts as a giant sensor that may detect ionospheric current systems.

Adam C Kellerman↗
NASA NTRS2021

Soil Moisture–Atmosphere Feedbacks Dominate Land Carbon Uptake Variability

Year-to-year changes in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems play an essential role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It remains uncertain to what extent temperature and water availability can explain these variations at the global scale. Here we use factorial climate model simulations and show that variability in soil moisture drives 90% of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake, mainly through its impact on photosynthesis. We find that most of this ecosystem response occurs indirectly as soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks amplify temperature and humidity anomalies, and enhance the direct effects of soil water stress. The strength of this feedback mechanism explains why coupled climate models indicate a dominant role of soil moisture which is not readily apparent in land surface model simulations and observational analyses. These findings highlight the need to account for feedbacks between soil and atmospheric dryness when estimating the carbon cycle’s response to climatic change globally, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the ecosystem response to droughts. Our results show that most of the global variability in modelled land carbon uptake is driven by temperature and vapour pressure deficit effects which are controlled by soil moisture.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Helheim Glacier Ice Velocity Variability Responds to Runoff and Terminus Position, but at Different Timescales

The Greenland Ice Sheet discharges ice to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers. Recent acceleration of Greenland outlet glaciers has been linked to both oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Here, we leverage temporally dense observations, regional climate model output, and newly developed time series analysis tools to assess the most important forcings causing ice flow variability at one of the largest Greenland outlet glaciers, Helheim Glacier, from 2009 to 2017. We find that ice speed correlates most strongly with catchment-integrated runoff at seasonal to interannual scales, while multi-annual flow variability correlates most strongly with multi-annual terminus variability. The disparate time scales and the influence of subglacial topography on Helheim Glacier’s dynamics highlight different regimes that can inform modeling and forecasting of its future. Notably, our results suggest that the recent terminus history observed at Helheim is a response to, rather than the cause of, upstream changes.

Cryospheric science↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inter-Individual Variability in Astronaut Strength Response to Long-Duration Spaceflight May Be Dictated by In-Flight Exercise

BACKGROUND: Deconditioning induced by prolonged microgravity exposure during spaceflight hinders physical capacity. Examination of pre- to post-flight isokinetic strength measures shows that strength decreases; however, considerable variability between crewmembers exists. As in-flight exercise differs between crew, an examination of exercise training variables contributing to strength preservation is necessary. The purpose of this analysis was to examine in-flight exercise of astronauts who maintain strength compared to those with the greatest decrements in strength from pre- to post-flight. METHODS: The database of NASA International Space Station (ISS) crew who completed pre- and post-flight knee isokinetic testing (n = 87) was used to identify “responders” (R) and “non-responders” (NR) to in-flight exercise (≥ 90-day flight duration). R were those that maintained or improved strength (mean of knee extension and flexion at 60°/sec) (n = 14; 5.6 ± 7.8%), and NR were those with the most severe decrements (n = 14; -32.8 ± 4.1%) from pre- to post-flight. In-flight daily exercise records (cycle ergometer, treadmill, resistance exercise) were aggregated on a weekly basis. Independent t-tests or Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare groups for in-flight exercise variables (i.e., frequency, time, intensity, volume). RESULTS: In-flight cycle ergometer frequency (2.4 ± 0.8 vs. 3.3 ± 1.0 days/wk; p = 0.021), total time (78.5 ± 20.4 vs. 114.0 ± 49.3 min/wk; p = 0.021), and active time (59.3 ± 17.2 vs. 86.9 ± 44.1 min/wk; p = 0.050) were greater in NR than R, but no differences for cycle intensity were observed. Treadmill distance traveled per session was greater in R than NR (4.6 ± 0.8 vs 3.6 ± 1.3 km/sess, p = 0.031), but no differences for treadmill frequency, total time, or active time were observed. Lower body resistance exercise intensity relative to pre-flight body weight was greater in R than NR (110.0 ± 16.5 vs 88.7 ± 25.0%; p = 0.012), but no differences in upper body or core resistance exercise intensity, volume, or frequency existed. CONCLUSIONS: The unique musculoskeletal loading provided by treadmill running at the expense of cycle ergometry, combined with using higher relative lower body loads during resistance training, may contribute to preserving strength in ISS crewmembers during long-duration spaceflight.

Alyssa N. Varanoske↗
NASA NTRS2023

Soil Respiration–Driven CO 2 Pulses Dominate Australia’s Flux Variability

The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO 2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO 2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009–2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO 2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia’s CO 2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia’s semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate–carbon cycle feedbacks.

Eva-Marie Metz↗
NASA NTRS2023

Northeast Alaska Climate: Using Earth Observations to Evaluate Snow Variability through a Climatological Analysis to Support Ecological Monitoring in Northeast Alaska

Alaska is experiencing climate change at an unprecedented rate, with temperatures increasing twice as fast as the national average. The resulting changes to the landscape and ecosystems are significant, including shorter winters, declining snow depth, thawing permafrost, and rapidly receding glaciers. These changes are not only exacerbating the negative impacts of oil exploration but also affecting the food security of indigenous communities that rely on hunting as a subsistence food source. With the US Fish and Wildlife Service managing a potential tundra travel season for the first time in its history, adequate data on historic snow variables is essential to protect the unique habitat of the area. This project used NASA satellite and assimilation system data to inform and improve the current understanding of snow patterns in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska. The DEVELOP team used MODIS Normalized Difference Snow Index data to determine snow season duration, snow change frequency, and the first and last days of snow. The team also utilized the 2.1 Global Land Data Assimilation System and Daymet V4 products to study climatological trends in snow depth and snow water equivalent, respectively, across the study areas. The results of this study give users the capacity to visualize maps of multiple snow variables to monitor changes in snow conditions and proactively prepare for the ecological, cultural, and landscape impacts that changes in snow variability will cause in the future.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2023

Importance of Internal Variability for Climate Model Assessment

Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and developing accurate future projections. However, in many cases, models do not match historical observations, particularly on regional scales. If there is a mismatch between modeled and observed climate features, should we necessarily conclude that our models are deficient? Using several illustrative examples, we emphasize that internal variability can easily lead to marked differences between the basic features of the model and observed climate, even when decades of model and observed data are available. This can appear as an apparent failure of models to capture regional trends or changes in global teleconnections, or simulation of extreme events. Despite a large body of literature on the impact of internal variability on climate, this acknowledgment has not yet penetrated many model evaluation activities, particularly for regional climate. We emphasize that using a single or small ensemble of simulations to conclude that a climate model is in error can lead to premature conclusions on model fidelity. A large ensemble of multidecadal simulations is therefore needed to properly sample internal climate variability in order to robustly identify model deficiencies and convincingly demonstrate progress between generations of climate models.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Emitted Dust Size Distribution and Its Variability: Insights From A Field Campaign in an Ephemeral Lake of the Lower Drâa Valley, Moroccan Sahara

During the last decades the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) of dust and its variability have been actively discussed due to their effects on the Earth System. Some frameworks support a higher proportion of aggregate’s fragmentation as wind speed increases, while others suggest the PSD independence of wind speed and soil properties, at least up to ~10 µm. Constraining the size-resolved dust emission and its variability is key to reduce the uncertainty of Earth system models, but still requires further analysis. The ERC project FRAGMENT addresses these and other issues related to dust emission, dust mineralogical composition and its effects upon climate. In this context we conducted a one month field campaign in September 2019 at L’Bour, an ephemeral lake located in the Lower Drâa Valley, resulting in a detailed description of the soil, dust emission and meteorology. During the campaign saltation and dust emission were very frequent under two prevailing wind directions. Friction velocity varied around 0.15 ms⁻¹, with peaks close to 0.4 ms⁻¹, except for a peak of 0.6 ms⁻¹ coinciding with the arrival of one of the moist convective storms or haboobs that occurred during this period. We study the near-surface concentration and diffusive flux PSDs along with their variability up to ~19 µm in optical diameter (~21 µm in geometric dust diameter). As expected, we find significant differences between the concentration and diffusive flux PSDs, with the latter showing a higher proportion of coarse and super-coarse particles. Our results also highlight dependencies of the PSDs with friction velocity, wind direction, and type of event (regular events vs haboob outflow events). We first discuss the potential origin of the variations and dependencies, which include 1) differences in fetch and surface between directions, 2) dry deposition of coarse and super-coarse dust depending on friction velocity, 3) more disaggregation with increasing friction velocity, and 4) the effect of the haboob gust front. Our calculations show the influence of dry deposition upon the diffusive flux PSDs. We finally compare our PSDs with brittle fragmentation theory, both with the original 2011 formulation using optical diameters, and with the more recent 2022 formulation including the emission of super-coarse dust and using geometric diameters.

particle size distribution↗
NASA NTRS2024

Understanding the Variability of Helium Abundance in the Solar Corona Using Three Fluid Modeling and Ultraviolet Observations

The variability of helium abundance in the solar corona and the solar wind is an important signature of solar activity, solar cycle, and solar wind sources, as well as coronal heating processes. Motivated by recently reported remote-sensing UV imaging observations by Helium Resonance Scattering in the Corona and Heliosphere payload sounding rocket of helium abundance in the inner corona on 2009 September 14 near solar minimum, we present the results of the first three-dimensional three-fluid (electrons, protons, and alpha particles) model of tilted coronal streamer belt and slow solar wind that illustrates the various processes leading to helium abundance differentiation and variability. We find good qualitative agreement between the three-fluid model and the coronal helium abundance variability deduced from UV observations of streamers, providing insight on the effects of the physical processes, such as heating, gravitational settling, and interspecies Coulomb friction in the outflowing solar wind that produce the observed features. The study impacts our understanding of the origins of the slow solar wind.

Leon Ofman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Natural Variability on the Use of Standard Deviation to Represent Measurement Uncertainties in Atmospheric Composition Studies

Measurement uncertainty is defined as a “non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the quantity values being attributed to a measurand”. It is most common that the uncertainties of GAW hourly measurements, such as greenhouse gas measurements, are reported as standard deviations derived from individual sampling at a higher time resolution (e.g., 1 min). In contrast, the uncertainties of GAW measurements of reactive gases and aerosol properties are reported in percentiles covering the same probability. A quick look at hourly CO 2 data from Cape Grim, Australia yielded some interesting findings: the hourly standard deviation is, on average, more than a factor of 10 higher for the measurements under non-background conditions (over 50% observations), while the difference in average CO 2 amount fraction was less than 2 ppm. The dramatic contrast cannot be explained by the difference in measurement uncertainties, but can largely be attributed the natural variability, or episodic ambient CO 2 variation reflecting changes in meteorological conditions or emissions. These initial findings motivated a more in-depth analysis of the ground-based measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties. This analysis will be using continuous 1 min ground site observations to construct time averaged statistical indicators to evaluate whether the standard deviation is adequate to represent the dispersion, especially under marked influence by natural variability. The suitability of this representation can be determined by examining the difference between the standard deviation and percentiles encompassing the same probability. We will examine time intervals of 1 hour, 3 hours, and 24 hours, with the latter time intervals chosen to match those commonly used in model assessments. We will also investigate how natural variability can alter the probability distribution of the measurands and how adequate the quadrature propagation of uncertainties is under these conditions. The results will include several trace gases (e.g., CO 2 , CO, O 3 , and NO 2 ) with a range of measurement techniques (e.g., PANDORA, in situ), atmospheric lifetimes, and aerosol properties (e.g. scattering coefficient). The findings from this analysis should provide some useful feedback on the best practices for uncertainty reporting.

Measurement Uncertainty↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Giovanni: Analyze, Compare, and Visualize 2000+ Earth Satellite and Model Variables Without Downloading Data and Software

Over vast oceans and remote continents, observations are often scarce and discontinuous. Satellite and model data play a critical role in research and applications. However, finding and accessing satellite and model data can be a daunting task for many, especially those outside the community. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC), one of 12 NASA Science Mission Directorate Data Centers, provides Earth science data, information, and services to everyone such as researchers, application users, educators, and students. GES DISC archives and supports datasets applicable to several NASA Earth Science Focus Areas including Atmospheric Composition, Water & Energy Cycles, Carbon Cycle & Ecosystem, and Climate Variability. To facilitate data discovery, evaluation, and exploration, GES DISC has developed the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni), an online tool to analyze and visualize NASA remote sensing and model data without downloading data and software. As of this writing, over 2000 Earth satellite and model variables are available in Giovanni, including several wellknown NASA satellite missions (e.g., TRMM, GPM) and projects (e.g., MERRA-2, GPCP). Giovanni provides twenty-two plots that can be used to analyze, compare, and explore Earth data across different disciplines. Results can be shared with colleagues and downloaded for further analysis. Over the years, Giovanni has helped publish over 3000 referral papers. In this presentation, we will showcase key variables and plot types in Giovanni with examples. In particular, we will present several popular precipitation products from GPM and CPCP for evaluation and comparison.

data analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Path to Improving Simulated Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea using Airborne In Situ Observations of Subgrid-Scale Variability

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. One of the main reasons for this problem are the possible unrealistic assumptions that models/reanalyses make about the subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of meteorological properties, as well as the relationship between SGS variability and grid-scale (GS) cloud properties. We utilize cloud and thermodynamic data of low level (primarily) liquid clouds collected from two aircraft campaigns conducted over the Beaufort Sea to better understand and characterize this problem. Examining data from the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign and the 1998 First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE) reveals that GS cloud water variability is closely related with SGS distribution of total water (i.e. water vapor + cloud water). We examine the influence of three assumed SGS parameters on the estimation of GS cloud water: the width of the SGS PDF of total water (ΔQT), the shape of the SGS PDF, and the critical saturation ratio (Scrit), which partitions the SGS PDF into water that is available or not for conversion to cloud water. Both Scrit and ΔQT influence predicted GS cloud water strongly. ARISE and FIRE-ACE disagree somewhat in the details, but both campaigns support the possibility that more realistic representations of these two parameters may lead to more realistic GS cloud water. In particular, both parameters are sensitive to GS relative humidity, and so we examine the effects of allowing these quantities to vary as an empirically-derived linear function of GS relative humidity. In contrast, the shape of the PDF has little effect on the predicted cloud water – a surprising result that merits additional investigation.

J Brant Dodson↗
NASA NTRS2020

Representation of Modes of Variability in 6 U.S. Climate Models

We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models (including those participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6) compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the El Ni˜no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere and the dominant modes of extra-tropical variability, including the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) (and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g. the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.

Modes of variability↗
NASA NTRS1995

Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis to Solar Irradiance Variability

Studies of solar variability improve our knowledge of the internal structure and dynamical processes taking place within the Sun that lead to solar irradiance changes. Becuase of the astrophysical and climatic significance of irradiance variability, considerable effort has been devoted to model and understand its physical origin.

Singular Spectrum Analysis↗