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At least 775 records · Page 43

The Water‐Year Water Balance of the Colorado River Basin

Abstract Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff ( R )) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R . The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗

Variable area nozzle for gas turbine engines driven by shape memory alloy actuators

A gas turbine engine includes a variable area nozzle having a plurality of flaps. The flaps are actuated by a plurality of actuating mechanisms driven by shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators to vary fan exist nozzle area. The SMA actuator has a deformed shape in its martensitic state and a parent shape in its austenitic state. The SMA actuator is heated to transform from martensitic state to austenitic state generating a force output to actuate the flaps. The variable area nozzle also includes a plurality of return mechanisms deforming the SMA actuator when the SMA actuator is in its martensitic state.

Rey, Nancy M.↗

Acoustic ground impedance meter

A method and apparatus are presented for measuring the acoustic impedance of a surface in which the surface is used to enclose one end of the chamber of a Helmholz resonator. Acoustic waves are generated in the neck of the resonator by a piston driven by a variable speed motor through a cam assembly. The acoustic waves are measured in the chamber and the frequency of the generated acoustic waves is measured by an optical device. These measurements are used to compute the compliance and conductance of the chamber and surface combined. The same procedure is followed with a calibration plate having infinite acoustic impedance enclosing the chamber of the resonator to compute the compliance and conductance of the chamber alone. Then by subtracting, the compliance and conductance for the surface is obtained.

Zuckerwar, A. J.↗

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimation of 3D Woven Design Sensitivities Using a Rapid Multiscale Analysis Technique

Highly-refined finite element models of three-dimension (3D) woven composite systems currently require excessive computational demands that limit their use in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. An alternative analysis methodology was developed using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) where multiscale models of a 3D woven composite (including inter-tow matrix voids and constituent failure) can be completed on a single central processing unit(CPU)on the order of ~30 s. To develop inputs and validation data for the NASMAT model, coupon and acid-digesting testing and x-ray computed tomography were performed. The NASMAT inputs were parameterized using a set of 25 input variables and distributions. These inputs were randomly sampled to generate a total of 100,000 NASMAT analyses that could be used to understand the influence of different material and geometric properties on the warp and weft-direction stiffness and strength. These analyses (including pre/post-processing) were performed in less than eight hours on a 120 CPU cluster. The computational efficiency of the NASMAT model enabled a sensitivity analysis to be performed, and dominant input variables were able to be identified. Key results were consistent with theoretical and experimental observations for the specific 3D woven system studied in this work.

NASMAT↗

Estimation of 3D Woven Design Sensitivities Using a Rapid Multiscale Analysis Technique

Highly-refined finite element models of three-dimension (3D) woven composite systems currently require excessive computational demands that limit their use in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. An alternative analysis methodology was developed using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) where multiscale models of a 3D woven composite (including inter-tow matrix voids and constituent failure) can be completed on a single central processing unit (CPU) on the order of ~30s. To develop inputs and validation data for the NASMAT model, coupon and acid-digesting testing and x-ray computed tomography were performed. The NASMAT inputs were parameterized using a set of 25 input variables and distributions. These inputs were randomly sampled to generate a total of 100,000 NASMAT analyses that could be used to understand the influence of different material and geometric properties on the warp and weft-direction stiffness and strength. These analyses (including pre/post-processing) were performed in less than eight hours on a 120 CPU cluster. The computational efficiency of the NASMAT model enabled a sensitivity analysis to be performed, and dominant input variables were able to be identified. Key results were consistent with theoretical and experimental observations for the specific 3D woven system studied in this work.

NASMAT↗

Geosat altimeter observations of the surface circulation of the Southern Ocean

Using Geosat altimeter data for 26 months from November 1986 to December 1988 and a newly developed technique for the analysis of height data, the variability of the sea level and the surface geostrophic currents in the Southern Ocean is investigated. The processed Geosat data are used to examine the relationship between the mesoscale variability and the values of mean circulation, determined from historical hydrographic data. It is shown that the geographical patterns of both the mean flow and the mesoscale variability are correlated. An efficient objective-analysis algorithm for generating smoothed fields from observations randomly distributed in time and two space dimensions is developed and applied to 26 months of Geosat data. The smoothed fields are then used to investigate the large-scale low-frequency variability of the sea level and the surface geostrophic velocity in the Southern Ocean, in order to identify the mode of the observed variations.

Chelton, Dudley B.↗

An automated procedure for calculating system matrices from perturbation data generated by an EAI Pacer and 100 hybrid computer system

Techniques are presented for determining the elements of the A, B, C, and D state variable matrices for systems simulated on an EAI Pacer 100 hybrid computer. An automated procedure systematically generates disturbance data necessary to linearize the simulation model and stores these data on a floppy disk. A separate digital program verifies this data, calculates the elements of the system matrices, and prints these matrices appropriately labeled. The partial derivatives forming the elements of the state variable matrices are approximated by finite difference calculations.

Milner, E. J.↗

Scaling kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations of grain growth with combined convolutional and graph neural networks

Graph neural networks (GNN) have emerged as a promising machine learning method for microstructure simulations such as grain growth. However, accurate modeling of realistic grain boundary networks requires large simulation cells, which GNN has difficulty scaling up to. To alleviate the computational costs and memory footprint of GNN, we suggest a hybrid architecture combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) based bijective autoencoder to compress the spatial dimensions, and a GNN that evolves the microstructure in the latent space of reduced spatial sizes. Our results demonstrate that the new design significantly reduces computational costs with using fewer message passing layer (from 12 down to 3) compared with GNN alone. The reduction in computational cost becomes more pronounced as the spatial size increases, indicating strong computational scalability. For the largest mesh evaluated (160 3 ), our method reduces memory usage and runtime in inference by 117× and 115×, respectively, compared with GNN-only baseline. More importantly, it shows higher accuracy and stronger spatiotemporal capability than the GNN-only baseline, especially in long-term testing. Such combination of scalability and accuracy is essential for simulating realistic material microstructures over extended time scales. The improvements can be attributed to the bijective autoencoder’s ability to compress information losslessly from spatial domain into a high dimensional feature space, thereby producing more expressive latent features for the GNN to learn from, while also contributing its own spatiotemporal modeling capability. Training data are generated from stochastic grain growth simulations, providing realistic variability for learning robust microstructure evolution. Comprehensive system validation confirms that the model is accurate, robust, and scalable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A novel approach to build algal consortia for sustainable biomass production

In the last decade, microalgae have reemerged as a feedstock for biofuels and a diverse suite of bioproducts. Yet, considerable challenges must be overcome before algal biofuels and bioproducts become technoeconomically viable. At present, single algal strain selected for particular phenotypic traits, such as maximum specific growth rate or lipid content, are commonly scaled for cultivation in open, outdoor raceway ponds due to the low capital costs of these systems. Although this monoculture approach may maximize the production of end products, monocultures are particularly susceptible to crashes associated with environmental and biological variability. An approach that has been proposed to generate more productive and stable microalgal crops is the use of eco-engineered communities, or consortia. Yet, attempts to construct productive consortia have not been consistently successful. We argue that failures stem from the lack of an eco-engineering approach to design species combinations. Here, we used an in silico method to build consortia before testing their performance against monocultures. Focusing on consortia of Nannochloropsis and Microchloropsis, we measured growth of strains along gradients of light, temperature, and salinity and used a functional dispersion approach to generate over 8000 functionally-diverse consortia combinations. We tested the 50 most functionally diverse consortia in a laboratory experiment and found that consortia overwhelmingly outperformed monocultures. Indeed, overyielding (OY) and a positive net biodiversity effect (NBE) was found respetively in 8%-86% and 88-92% of consortia combinations over the different experimental phases. To our knowledge, this is the first application of an in silico approach to design functionally diverse consortia before laboratory and field testing. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of employing a functional diversity approach for consortia design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An analytical method for identifying synergies between behind-the-meter battery and thermal energy storage

Electric utilities build generation capacity to meet the highest demand period, and they often pass on the costs associated with these peaking generators to building owners through demand charges. Building owners can minimize these demand charges by shifting energy use away from peak periods with behind-the-meter storage. This storage can include batteries, which can directly shift the metered load, or thermal energy storage, which can shift thermal-driven electric loads like air conditioning. However, there is a lack of research on how best to combine battery and thermal energy storage. In this study, we develop an analytical sizing method to calculate the potential demand reduction and annualized cost savings for different combinations of thermal and battery energy storage sizes. We show that adding batteries to a thermal energy storage system can increase the total system's load shaving potential. This is particularly true when the building has onsite photovoltaic generation or electric vehicle charging, which add significant variability to the load shape. We also show that for a given total storage size, selecting a higher fraction of thermal energy storage can significantly lower the cycling of the battery, and therefore extend the battery life. This, combined with the expected lower first cost of thermal energy storage materials compared to batteries, shows that hybrid energy storage systems can outperform a standalone battery or standalone thermal storage system. Assuming the thermal storage has a capital cost 6x lower than the battery, our analysis shows that the optimal system is 71% thermal energy storage and 29% battery energy storage for a scenario with electric vehicle charging. The annualized cost savings for this system are $48.6 k/yr, whereas an equivalently sized standalone thermal energy storage system would provide annualized cost savings of $28.5 k/yr and a standalone battery would lead to savings of $8.72 k/yr. The hybrid system also reduces battery cycling by 52% compared to a standalone battery, extending battery lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Coordinated operation of pumped-storage hydropower with power and water distribution systems

Small pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) units have gained popularity as distributed energy storage options that can provide flexibility to the operation of power distribution systems. Optimal operation of small PSH units is not only dependent on the energy storage provided to power distribution system, but also on the inflow and outflow of water from and to the water distribution system. Here, in this context, this paper develops an optimization model for coordinated operation of PSH units with power and water distribution systems. The proposed model optimizes the operation of water tanks, variable-speed pumps and PSH in pumping and generating modes to minimize the operation cost of power distribution system, while respecting the power flow constraints of power distribution and hydraulic constraints of water distribution system. Appropriate electricity tariffs are implemented to avoid additional expenses in water distribution system that can be enforced by its coordinated operation in favor of power distribution system. The proposed model is implemented on a 33-bus and a 123-bus test power distribution system connected to a 16-node test water distribution system. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed model in tapping PSH flexibility to reduce the operation cost of power and water distribution systems, while meeting the power and water demands.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Stretchable Photodiodes with Polymer-Engineered Semiconductor Nanowires for Wearable Photoplethysmography

Healthcare systems worldwide have been stressed to provide sufficient resources to serve the increasing and aging population in our society. The situation became more challenging at the time of pandemic. Technology advancement, especially the adoption of wearable health monitoring devices, has provided an important supplement to current clinical equipment. Most health monitoring devices are rigid, however, human tissues are soft. Such a difference has prohibited intimate contact between the two and jeopardized wearing comfortableness, which hurdles measurement accuracy especially during longtime usage. Here, in this work, we report a soft and stretchable photodiode that can conformally adhere onto the human body without any pressure and measure cardiovascular variables for an extended period with higher reliability than commercial devices. The photodiode used a composite light absorber consisting of an organic bulk heterojunction embedded into an elastic polymer matrix. It is discovered that the elastic polymer matrix not only improves the morphology of the bulk heterojunction for obtaining the desired mechanical properties but also alters its electronic band structure and improves the electrical properties that lead to a reduced dark current and enhanced photovoltage in the stretchable photodiode. The work has demonstrated high fidelity measurements and longtime monitoring of heat rate variability and oxygen saturation, potentially enabling next-generation wearable photoplethysmography devices for point-of-care diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases in a more accessible and affordable way.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Role of Sea‐Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-informed neural network with transfer learning (TL-PINN) based on domain similarity measure for prediction of nuclear reactor transients

Nuclear reactor safety and efficiency can be enhanced through the development of accurate and fast methods for prediction of reactor transient (RT) states. Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage deep learning methods to provide an alternative approach to RT modeling. Applications of PINNs in monitoring of RTs for operator support requires near real-time model performance. However, as with all machine learning models, development of a PINN involves time-consuming model training. Here, we show that a transfer learning (TL-PINN) approach achieves significant performance gain, as measured by reduction of the number of iterations for model training. Using point kinetic equations (PKEs) model with six neutron precursor groups, constructed with experimental parameters of the Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) research reactor, we generated different RTs with experimentally relevant range of variables. The RTs were characterized using Hausdorff and Fréchet distance. We have demonstrated that pre-training TL-PINN on one RT results in up to two orders of magnitude acceleration in prediction of a different RT. The mean error for conventional PINN and TL-PINN models prediction of neutron densities is smaller than 1%. We have developed a correlation between TL-PINN performance acceleration and similarity measure of RTs, which can be used as a guide for application of TL-PINNs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cryptate binding energies towards high throughput chelator design: metadynamics ensembles with cluster–continuum solvation

A tiered forcefield/semiempirical/meta-GGA pipeline together with a thermodynamic scheme designed with error cancellation in mind was developed to calculate binding energies of [2.2.2] cryptate complexes of mono- and divalent cations. Stable complexes of Na, K, Rb, Ca, Zn and Pb were generated, revealing consistent cation–N lengths but highly variable cation–O lengths and an amine stacking mechanism potentially augmenting the cation size selectivity. Metadynamics, used for searching the high-dimensional potential energy surface, together with a cluster–continuum model for affordable – yet accurate – solvation modeling, enabled the discovery of more stable geometries than those previously reported. Similar solvation energy curve shapes for lone vs. coordinated ions enabled rapid solvation convergence via the cancellation of errors stemming from finite cluster sizes. In conclusion, an R 2 of 0.850 vs. experimental aqueous binding energies was obtained, validating this scheme as the backbone of a high-throughput workflow for chelator design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Combined Effects of Electric Vehicle Charging and Rooftop Solar Integration on Voltage Imbalance in Residential Distribution Networks

Residential electric vehicle (EV) chargers, as single phase loads, contribute to unbalanced voltage drops across phases, while rooftop solar systems, as single phase generators, can exacerbate voltage imbalance by causing unbalanced voltage increases. This paper investigates combined effects of residential EV charging and rooftop solar generation on voltage imbalance in residential distribution grids. The study examines these simultaneous impacts using the IEEE 8500-node test system, enhanced with a secondary network to realistically model the EV chargers and rooftop solar integration. To account for the variability and uncertainty in the EV charging loads and solar generation, a Monte Carlo approach is employed to capture and quantify the simultaneous impact of the EV charging and rooftop solar integration. In this approach, multiple influencing factors are considered, including state-of-charge (SOC), maximum charging power levels, and geographic distribution of chargers. The results provide practical insights for utilities and stakeholders, offering expectations for planning and operating strategies that effectively manage the increasing adoption of EVs and solar power while maintaining grid reliability.

Choi, Jongchan [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025952455X)↗

ILI Code

This R code consists of three scripts, described below. 1. ILI_LHC_sample.R The first script generate 10,000 samples from the total parameter space formed by the ranges of the following five parameters inputted into the ILI model: transmission rate (beta), per capita rate of progress from exposed to infectious state (gamma_1), per capita rate of progress through initial infectious state (gamma_2), per capita rate of progress through hospitalized state (gamma_3), and per capita rate of progress through non-hospitalized infectious state (gamma_4). The output is LHS_samples.csv, for input into the global sensitivity script, ILI_SEIR. 2. ILI_SEIR.R The second script solves a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected- Recovered (SEIR) model (a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)), runs global sensitivity analyses, and generates plots showing the impact of the input variables on the response variables for each virus. 3. virus_sims.R The third script solves a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected- Recovered (SEIR) model (a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)), aimed at modeling outbreaks for five common upper respiratory viruses within a contained population. The output of this code is an epidemic curve to show timing and magnitude of the epidemic peak for each virus. Note: for all three scripts, the parameter values must be hard-coded by the user or the output will not be accurate.

Spencer, Julie↗