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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium

Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

anomalies↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and automation, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and data science, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Core Size↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Process Modeling Tools for Determining Variability in Additively Manufactured Parts

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program aims to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy However, the unique aspects of additive manufacturing (AM) materials in terms of their processing history, microstructure, and properties, are a major barrier for qualification and certification of nuclear components. Much of this challenge may be attributed to component scale variations in microstructure and properties that are driven by local influences of process conditions and geometry on thermal history, melt pool dynamics, and corresponding microstructure evolution. Computational modeling tools may be helpful in this regard to aid in predicting and controlling this level of variability. The purpose of this report is to review the current state-of-the-art for process modeling with regards to metal AM. For this purpose, we consider specifically the case study of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processing of SS316, a family of alloys that are both commonly used in nuclear energy applications and suitable for AM processing. The report first introduces the necessary components of a process modeling workflow, followed by a review of the current status of each. At the end, application of these modeling tools to understanding variability in AM process given their current state are considered, and recommendations for future development are proposed

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2004

Degree Of Diminution In Vagal-Cardiac Activity Predicts Sudden Death In Familial Dysautonomia When Resting Tachycardia Is Absent

Patients with familial dysautonomia (FD) have an increased risk of sudden death, but sensitive and specific predictors of sudden death in FD are lacking. Methods. We recorded 10-min resting high-fidelity 12-lead ECGs in 14 FD patients and in 14 age/gender-matched healthy subjects and studied 25+ different heart rate variability (HRV) indices for their ability to predict sudden death in the FD patients. Indices studied included those from 4 "nonlinear" HRV techniques (detrended fluctuation analysis, approximate entropy, correlation dimension, and PoincarC analyses). The predictive value of PR, QRS, QTc and JTc intervals, QT dispersion (QTd), beat-to-beat QT and PR interval variability indices (QTVI and PRVI) and 12- lead high frequency QRS ECG (150-250 Hz) were also studied. FD patients and controls (C) differed (Pless than 0.0l) with respect to 20+ of the HRV indices (FD less than C) and with respect to QTVI and PRVI (FDBC) and HF QRS- related root mean squared voltages (FDBC) and reduced amplitude zone counts (FD less than C). They differed less with respect to PR intervals (FD less than C) and JTc intervals (FD greater than C) (P less than 0.05 for both) and did not differ at all with respect to QRS and QTc intervals and to QTd. Within 12 months after study, 2 of the 14 patients succumbed to sudden cardiac arrest. The best predictor of sudden death was the degree of diminution in HRV vagal-cardiac (parasympathetic) parameters such as RMSSD, the SDl of Poincare plots, and HF spectral power. Excluding the two FD patients who had resting tachycardia (HR greater than 100, which confounds traditional HRV analyses), the following criteria were independently 100% sensitive and 100% specific for predicting sudden death in the remaining 12 FD patients during spontaneous breathing: RMSSD less than 13 ms and/or PoincarC SD1 less than 9 ms. In FD patients without supine tachycardia, the degree of diminution in parasympathetic HRV parameters (by high-fidelity ECG) predicts incipient death.

Schlegel, T. T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Investigation of the utility of mean square approximation systems and in system response predictions

A method is presented for estimating the variability of a system's natural frequencies arising from the variability of the system's parameters. The only information required to obtain the estimates is the member variability, in the form of second order properties, and the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the mean system. Several examples are worked out in detail to illustrate how the method is applied.

Bogdanoff, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Predicting Modes of the Unsteady Vorticity Field near the Trailing Edge of a Blade

Progress on predicting modes of the unsteady velocity/vorticity field of a turbulent boundary layer from Reynolds stress statistics is described. Prediction of these modes, that provide the source terms for trailing edge noise predictions in aircraft engine fans and other configurations, will allow for the first time detailed viscous flow effects to be included in such noise calculations. The key accomplishments of this work in FY02 are: (1) The development of a Matlab code for the prediction of modes in two- and three-dimensional boundary layers, previously applied to plane wakes; (2) Predictions with the code using a constant lengthscale formulation in a fully developed turbulence channel flow. Comparison of these boundary layer predictions with available DNS simulation results; and (3) Formulation of an improved model using a variable lengthscale proportional to mixing length. Turbulent channel flow predictions and comparison with DNS results. This work is being carried out in continuous communication and collaboration with the Glegg research group at Florida Atlantic University, which will be incorporating mode predictions into engine noise calculations.

Devenport, William J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning-Accelerated ADMM for Distributed DC Optimal Power Flow

We suggest a novel data-driven method to accelerate the convergence of Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for solving distributed DC optimal power flow (DC-OPF) where lines are shared between independent network partitions. Using previous observations of ADMM trajectories for a given system under varying load, the method trains a recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the converged values of dual and consensus variables. Given a new realization of system load, a small number of initial ADMM iterations is taken as input to infer the converged values and directly inject them into the iteration. We empirically demonstrate that the online injection of these values into the ADMM iteration accelerates convergence by a significant factor for partitioned 14-, 118-and 2848-bus test systems under differing load scenarios. The proposed method has several advantages: it maintains the security of private decision variables inherent in consensus ADMM; inference is fast and so may be used in online settings; RNN-generated predictions can dramatically improve time to convergence but, by construction, can never result in infeasible ADMM subproblems; it can be easily integrated into existing software implementations. While we focus on the ADMM formulation of distributed DC-OPF in this paper, the ideas presented are naturally extended to other distributed optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning-Accelerated ADMM for Distributed DC Optimal Power Flow

We propose a novel data-driven method to accelerate the convergence of Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for solving distributed DC optimal power flow (DC-OPF) where lines are shared between independent network partitions. Using previous observations of ADMM trajectories for a given system under varying load, the method trains a recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the converged values of dual and consensus variables. Given a new realization of system load, a small number of initial ADMM iterations is taken as input to infer the converged values and directly inject them into the iteration. We empirically demonstrate that the online injection of these values into the ADMM iteration accelerates convergence by a significant factor for partitioned 14-, 118- and 2848-bus test systems under differing load scenarios. The proposed method has several advantages: it maintains the security of private decision variables inherent in consensus ADMM; inference is fast and so may be used in online settings; RNN-generated predictions can dramatically improve time to convergence but, by construction, can never result in infeasible ADMM subproblems; it can be easily integrated into existing software implementations. While we focus on the ADMM formulation of distributed DC-OPF in this paper, the ideas presented are naturally extended to other distributed optimization problems.

alternating direction method of multipliers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance Framework for Achieving Highly Reusable Launch Systems

The United States Space Force and NASA are exploring approaches that enable rapid launch response via highly reusable launch systems. One hindrance to achieving high reusability is the inability to meet damage tolerance requirements. To this end, a framework for applying reliability-based damage tolerance to space structures is presented. The reliability-based approach employs probabilistic distributions of key input variables such as material properties, geometry, loads, inspection probability, and defect characteristics to predict hardware reliability for the planned mission life. The probabilistic variables needed to perform the reliability assessments are defined and recommendations on how to collect the required data are provided. Several example problems illustrate the implementation and execution of this approach.

Leland Shimizu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coupling of Spark Plasma Sintering with Advanced Modeling to Enable Process Scale-Up: Presentation to DOE-NE [Slides]

The research goal of this project is to develop at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) a first-of-its-kind Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based, multiscale, multiphysics spark plasma sintering (SPS) modeling and simulation code application, termed “Freya.” Freya will simulate the thermo-mechanical-electrical aspects of the SPS fabrication process and will be paired with lower length scale sub-models, such as phase-field, to predict the resulting microstructure. SPS is an advanced manufacturing process that can be used to solve a variety of material manufacturing challenges; however, this process is an extremely challenging problem for modeling and simulation. The SPS process is inherently multiphysics and multi-scale, with the macroscale electro-thermo-mechanical behavior linked intricately to the microstructure evolution of the part being sintered. Accurate modeling and simulation tools, specifically geared towards the SPS process, are needed to predict the influence of the multiple variables involved in the manufacturing process. Modeling and simulation accuracy is achieved and demonstrated through comparison to multiple validation experiments. The validation efforts for Freya include both separate effects and complete multiphysics SPS process experiments. One of the key benefits this Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project offers stems from the emphasis placed on experimental validation of the Freya models, both on the individual length scales and of the final coupled multiscale multiphysics simulations. Experimental validation of Freya’s multiscale coupling capability provides the technical credibility necessary for potential future industry and research partners to accept the simulation predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal mass variables for semivisible jets

Strongly coupled hidden sector theories predict collider production of invisible, composite dark matter candidates mixed with standard model hadrons in the form of semivisible jets. Classical mass reconstruction techniques may not be optimal for these unusual topologies, in which the missing transverse momentum comes from massive particles and has a nontrivial relationship to the visible jet momentum. We apply the artificial event variable network, a semisupervised, interpretable machine learning technique that uses an information bottleneck, to derive superior mass reconstruction functions for several cases of resonant semivisible jet production. We demonstrate that the technique can extrapolate to unknown signal model parameter values. We further demonstrate the viability of conducting an actual search for new physics using this method, by applying the learned functions to standard model background events from quantum chromodynamics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗