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At least 775 records · Page 43

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Co-Extrusion (CoEx) for Cost Reduction of Advanced High-Energy-and-Power Battery Electrode Manufacturing

Co-Extrusion (CoEx) is a deposition technology developed at PARC that uses engineered fluidic channels to cause multiple streams of dissimilar fluids to impart shape to one another. Here, we describe the use of CoEx to produce structured cathode electrode films to improve electrochemical performance of thick electrode films. CoEx enables us to create structured electrode films that have periodic regions of enhanced ionic conductivity, enabling higher utilization of thicker cathode films at high discharge rates. While increasing electrode thickness is a known method for increasing energy density of battery electrodes, this increase in energy density typically also results in reduced power density. This project, a collaboration between the Palo Alto Research Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratories, and Ford Motor Company, seeks to first validate the benefits of CoEx at the coin cell level, before performing the necessary R&D effort to scale production up to large (10+ Ah) pouch cells that will show increased energy density without a reduction in power density. We used conventional battery materials (commercially available NMC, PVDF, carbon black, and graphite) to produce structured electrodes via CoEx and compared them to thick and thin conventionally produced (unstructured) battery electrodes. CoEx electrodes show improved high rate performance compared to unstructured electrodes, resulting in higher energy density pouch cells compared to the baseline electrode of 7 and 11% in volumetric and gravimetric energy density, respectively. These electrodes also showed substantially improved electrochemical performance at high discharge rates compared to thick conventional electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Detector and Beamline Simulation for Next-Generation High Energy Physics Experiments

The success of high energy physics programs relies heavily on accurate detector simulations and beam interaction modeling. The increasingly complex detector geometries and beam dynamics require sophisticated techniques in order to meet the demands of current and future experiments. Common software tools used today are unable to fully utilize modern computational resources, while data-recording rates are often orders of magnitude larger than what can be produced via simulation. In this paper, we describe the state, current and future needs of high energy physics detector and beamline simulations and related challenges, and we propose a number of possible ways to address them.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Adapting Technology Learning Curves for Prospective Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways

Comparisons of emerging carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies with equivalent incumbent technologies are necessary to support technology developers and to help policy-makers design appropriate long-term incentives to mitigate climate change through the deployment of CCU. In particular, early-stage CCU technologies must prove their economic viability and environmental reduction potential compared to already-deployed technologies. These comparisons can be misleading, as emerging technologies typically experience a drastic increase in performance and decrease in cost and greenhouse gas emissions as they develop from research to mass-market deployment due to various forms of learning. These changes complicate the interpretation of early techno-economic assessments (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of emerging CCU technologies. The effects of learning over time or cumulative production themselves can be quantitatively described using technology learning curves (TLCs). While learning curve approaches have been developed for various technologies, a harmonized methodology for using TLCs in TEA and LCA for CCU in particular is required. To address this, we describe a methodology that incorporates TLCs into TEA and LCA to forecast the environmental and economic performance of emerging CCU technologies. This methodology is based on both an evaluation of the state of the art of learning curve assessment and a literature review of TLC approaches developed in various manufacturing and energy generation sectors. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement this methodology using a case study on a CO 2 mineralization pathway. Finally, commentary is provided on how researchers, technology developers, and LCA and TEA practitioners can advance the use of TLCs to allow for consistent, high-resolution modeling of technological learning for CCU going forward and enable holistic assessments and fairer comparisons with other climate technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating ZEBRA Battery Module under the Peak-Shaving Duty Cycles

With the recent rapid increase in demand for reliable, long-cycle life, and safe battery technologies for large-scale energy-storage applications, a battery module based on ZEBRA battery chemistry is extensively evaluated for its application in peak shaving duty cycles. First, this module is tested with a full capacity cycle consisting of a charging process (factory default) and a discharging process with a current of 40 A. The battery energy efficiency (discharge vs. charge) is about 90%, and the overall energy efficiency is 80.9%, which includes the auxiliary power used to run the battery management system electronics and self-heating to maintain the module operating temperature (265 °C). Generally, because of the increased self-heating during the holding times that exist for the peak shaving duty cycles, the overall module efficiency decreases slightly for the peak-shaving duty cycles (70.7–71.8%) compared to the full-capacity duty cycle. With a 6 h, peak-shaving duty cycle, the overall energy efficiency increases from 71.8% for 7.5 kWh energy utilization to 74.1% for 8.5 kWh. We conducted long-term cycling tests of the module at a 6 h, peak-shaving duty cycle with 7.5 kWh energy utilization, and the module exhibited a capacity degradation rate of 0.0046%/cycle over 150 cycles (>150 days).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How wind speed shear and directional veer affect the power production of a megawatt-scale operational wind turbine

Most megawatt-scale wind turbines align themselves into the wind as defined by the wind speed at or near the center of the rotor (hub height). However, both wind speed and wind direction can change with height across the area swept by the turbine blades. A turbine aligned to hub-height winds might experience suboptimal or superoptimal power production, depending on the changes in the vertical profile of wind, also known as shear. Using observed winds and power production over 6 months at a site in the high plains of North America, we quantify the sensitivity of a wind turbine's power production to wind speed shear and directional veer as well as atmospheric stability. We measure shear using metrics such as α (the log-law wind shear exponent), β bulk (a measure of bulk rotor-disk-layer veer), β total (a measure of total rotor-disk-layer veer), and rotor-equivalent wind speed (REWS; a measure of actual momentum encountered by the turbine by accounting for shear). We also consider the REWS with the inclusion of directional veer, REWS θ , although statistically significant differences in power production do not occur between REWS and REWS θ at our site. When REWS differs from the hub-height wind speed (as measured by either the lidar or a transfer function-corrected nacelle anemometer), the turbine power generation also differs from the mean power curve in a statistically significant way. This change in power can be more than 70 kW or up to 5 % of the rated power for a single 1.5 MW utility-scale turbine. Over a theoretical 100-turbine wind farm, these changes could lead to instantaneous power prediction gains or losses equivalent to the addition or loss of multiple utility-scale turbines. At this site, REWS is the most useful metric for segregating the turbine's power curve into high and low cases of power production when compared to the other shear or stability metrics. Therefore, REWS enables improved forecasts of power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying Annual Industrial Locomotive Energy Consumption in the United States

While US Class 1 railroad locomotive rosters and annual fuel consumption are well-documented, considerably less is known regarding the overall energy consumption of operations involving industrial locomotives. To determine the energy savings potential of this rail operating sector, the objective of this research is to develop an inventory of US industrial locomotives and a baseline estimate of their annual energy consumption. Creating an industrial locomotives roster from public data is challenging given their diverse ownership by shippers or leasing companies, and operating locales largely out of public view. By cross-referencing public data on locomotive reporting marks, serial numbers, online images and aerial images, the project team confirmed the age, model and horsepower of over one thousand industrial locomotives. Estimating energy consumption is complicated by the variability in industrial locomotive types and power ratings, and extreme differences in duty cycles and utilization. Given these limitations, using quantified case study examples and adjustments to standard EPA line-haul and switching duty cycles, bounds on the magnitude of annual US industrial locomotive energy consumption were estimated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

ERTS direct readout ground station study

A system configuration which provides for a wide variety of user requirements is described. Two distinct user types are considered and optimized configurations are provided. Independent satellite transmission systems allow simultaneous signal transmission to Regional Collection Centers via a high data rate channel and to local users who require near real time consumption of lower rate data. In order to maximize the ultimate utility of this study effort, a parametric system description is given such that in essence a shopping list is provided. To achieve these results, it was necessary to consider all technical disciplines associated with high resolution satellite imaging systems including signal processing, modulation and coding, recording, and display techniques. A total systems study was performed.

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Improved noise-adding radiometer for microwave receivers

Use of input switch and noise reference standard is avoided by using noise-adding technique. Excess noise from solid state noise-diode is coupled into receiver through directional coupler and square-wave modulated at low rate. High sensitivity receivers for radioastronomy applications are utilized with greater confidence in stability of radiometer.

Batelaan, P. D.↗

The IR emission spectrum of N2 excited under auroral conditions.

Recently determined experimental and theoretical cross sections for electron impact excitation of six triplet states of N2 (A, B, W, C, E, D) have been utilized to predict the absolute IR volume emission rates from N2 under nighttime auroral conditions. Secondary electron fluxes appropriate to an IBC II normal aurora were used in the calculations. The cascade contributions coupling the various electronic states were included as well as the most important quenching processes. The results indicate that the B yields reversibly A and W yields reversibly B cascade processes, which are important in the population of the A, B, and W states, produce appreciable radiation in the 1- to 5-micron wavelength region.

Cartwright, D. C.↗

Current concepts for a tracking and data relay satellite system.

Description of two varieties of a tracking and data relay satellite system utilizing geosynchronous relay spacecraft to provide telecommunications service to user spacecraft in low earth orbit. These users are categorized by their earth return data rates. The described system varieties are the two versions of a low and medium data rate system whose definition study is now complete. One of these versions utilizes a spin-stabilized spacecraft, while the other employs a three-axis stabilized one. Some of the communication problems peculiar to these system varieties are discussed.

Clark, G. Q.↗

Application of the Collision-Imparted Velocity Method for Analyzing the Responses of Containment and Deflector Structures to Engine Rotor Fragment Impact

An approximate analysis, termed the Collision Imparted Velocity Method (CIVM), was employed for predicting the transient structural responses of containment rings or deflector rings which are subjected to impact from turbojet-engine rotor burst fragments. These 2-d structural rings may be initially circular or arbitrarily curved and may have either uniform or variable thickness; elastic, strain hardening, and strain rate material properties are accommodated. This approximate analysis utilizes kinetic energy and momentum conservation relations in order to predict the after-impact velocities of the fragment and the impacted ring segment. This information is then used in conjunction with a finite element structural response computation code to predict the transient, large deflection responses of the ring. Similarly, the equations of motion for each fragment are solved in small steps in time. Also, some comparisons of predictions with experimental data for fragment-impacted free containment rings are presented.

Collins, T. P.↗

On the calculation of cosmic-ray exposure ages of stone meteorites

Abundances of cosmic ray-produced noble gases and Al-26, including some new measurements, have been compiled for some 23 stone meteorites with exposure ages less than 3,000,000 yr. Concentrations of cosmogenic He, Ne, and Ar in these meteorites have been corrected for differences in target element abundances by normalization to L-chondrite chemistry. Combined noble gas measurements in depth samples of the Keyes and St. Severin chondrites are utilized to derive equations for normalizing the production rates of cosmogenic He-3, Ne-21, and Ar-38 in chondrites to an adopted 'average' shielding. The measured unsaturated AL-26 concentrations and the calculated equilibrium Al-26 for these meteorites are combined to estimate exposure ages. These exposure ages are statistically compared with chemistry- and shielding-corrected concentrations of cosmogenic He, Ne, and Ar to derive absolute production rates for these nuclides, which are found to be roughly 25% higher than production rates used in the past. From these production rates and relative chemical correction factors, production rates for other classes of stone meteorites are derived.

Cressy, P. J., Jr.↗

Potential of a nitrogen tetroxide spill or emission during movement from supplier to user

The type of equipment used to transport nitrogen tetroxide is described along with various methods of shipping utilized. Emphasis is placed on reduction of accident rate. Potential areas for leaks, emissions, or spills discussed include: accidental spills, transfer operations, sampling, and the so-called 'empty' trailer. Corrective actions taken to reduce the occurrence of these problems are briefly discussed.

Watje, W. F.↗

Beat by beat stroke volume assessment by PDE in upright and supine exercise

A 3.0 MHz pulse Doppler echocardiograph was used to estimate instantaneous stroke volume and cardiac output in 8 men during steady state supine and upright exercise at 300 kpm/min which were compared with other studies utilizing invasive procedures. The mean transients in heart rate and stroke volume and cardiac output for the first 20 sec of exercise in each posture were then determined. Centerline blood velocities were obtained in the ascending aorta with the transducer positioned manually in the suprasternal notch. Mean supine values for stroke volume and cardiac output at rest and exercise were 111 (6.4) and 112 ml (9.7 L/min), respectively, for supine. The corresponding results for upright were 76 (5.6) and 92 ml (8.4 L/min). These values compare favorably with prior studies. The transient response of cardiac output following the onset of upright was about twice as fast as in S because of the rapid and almost immediate upsurge in stroke volume. In supine, only heart rate served to augment cardiac output as stroke volume initially fell. The faster initial aortic flow in upright must represent the rapid mobilization of pooled venous blood from the leg veins which more than accounts for the additional volume (184 ml) of blood passing through the aorta during upright compared with supine in the first 20 sec.

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Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

Mokashi, A. R.↗

Sensitivity analysis of add-on price estimate for select silicon wafering technologies

The cost of producing wafers from silicon ingots is a major component of the add-on price of silicon sheet. Economic analyses of the add-on price estimates and their sensitivity internal-diameter (ID) sawing, multiblade slurry (MBS) sawing and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) are presented. Interim price estimation guidelines (IPEG) are used for estimating a process add-on price. Sensitivity analysis of price is performed with respect to cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials (blade life) and utilities, and the production parameters such as slicing rate, slices per centimeter and process yield, using a computer program specifically developed to do sensitivity analysis with IPEG. The results aid in identifying the important cost parameters and assist in deciding the direction of technology development efforts.

Mokashi, A. R.↗

The atmospheric lifetime experiment. I - Introduction, instrumentation, and overview

The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment is designed to determine accurately the atmospheric concentrations of the four halocarbons CFCl3, CF2Cl2, CCl4, and CH3CCl3, and also of N2O with emphasis on measurement of their long-term trends in the atmosphere. Comparison of these concentrations and trends for the four halocarbons with estimates of their industrial emission rates then enables calculations of their global circulation rates and globally averaged atmospheric lifetimes. The experiment utilizes automated dual-column electron-capture gas chromatographs which sample the background air about 4 times daily at the following globally distributed sites: Adrigole, Ireland, Cape Meares, Oregon; Ragged Point, Barbados; Point Matatula, American Samoa, and Cape Grim, Tasmania. The climatology of these 'clean air' sites and their ability to describe the global air mass are reviewed. The instrumentation and methods for data acquisition and processing are then described. An overview of the data obtained and the trends derived during the 3-year period from July 1978 through June 1981 for each of the five species being measured is presented.

Prinn, R. G.↗