Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertain systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43

The hidden roots of wetland methane emissions

Abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) globally. Climate and land use change are expected to alter CH 4 emissions but current and future wetland CH 4 budgets remain uncertain. One important predictor of wetland CH 4 flux, plants, play an important role in providing substrates for CH 4 ‐producing microbes, increasing CH 4 consumption by oxygenating the rhizosphere, and transporting CH 4 from soils to the atmosphere. Yet, there remain various mechanistic knowledge gaps regarding the extent to which plant root systems and their traits influence wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we present a novel conceptual framework of the relationships between a range of root traits and CH 4 processes in wetlands. Based on a literature review, we propose four main CH 4 ‐relevant categories of root function: gas transport, carbon substrate provision, physicochemical influences and root system architecture. Within these categories, we discuss how individual root traits influence CH 4 production, consumption, and transport (PCT). Our findings reveal knowledge gaps concerning trait functions in physicochemical influences, and the role of mycorrhizae and temporal root dynamics in PCT. We also identify priority research needs such as integrating trait measurements from different root function categories, measuring root‐CH 4 linkages along environmental gradients, and following standardized root ecology protocols and vocabularies. Thus, our conceptual framework identifies relevant belowground plant traits that will help improve wetland CH 4 predictions and reduce uncertainties in current and future wetland CH 4 budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bichromatic Wave Selection for Validation of the Difference-Frequency Transfer Function for the OC6 Validation Campaign: Preprint

The focus of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continuation, with Correlation and unCertainity (OC6) project, which operates under the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 30, is to refine the accuracy of engineering tools used to design offshore wind turbines. In support of this work, a new validation campaign is being developed that seeks to better understand the nonlinear wave loading that excites floating wind systems at their low-frequency, rigid-body modes in surge and pitch. The validation data will be used in a three-way validation between simplified engineering tools and higher-fidelity tools, such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Irregular wave spectrums, which are traditionally used to examine the nonlinear wave interaction with offshore structures, are too computationally expensive to be simulated in CFD tools, and so bichromatic wave cases will be used instead. This paper reviews the process used to choose the bichromatic wave pairs to be used in the campaign to validate the second-order difference-frequency quadratic and potential loads at the surge and pitch natural frequencies of a floating semisubmersible.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Stochastic robustness of linear control systems

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear, time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluation of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This definition of robustness is an alternative to existing deterministic definitions that address both structured and unstructured parameter variations directly. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variations. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit alternate discriminants to be considered. Thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions also can be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

Remote Sensing Assessment of Lunar Resources: We Know Where to Go to Find What We Need

The utilization of space resources is necessary to not only foster the growth of human activities in space, but is essential to the President s vision of a "sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond." The distribution of resources will shape planning permanent settlements by affecting decisions about where to locate a settlement. Mapping the location of such resources, however, is not the limiting factor in selecting a site for a lunar base. It is indecision about which resources to use that leaves the location uncertain. A wealth of remotely sensed data exists that can be used to identify targets for future detailed exploration. Thus, the future of space resource utilization pre-dominantly rests upon developing a strategy for resource exploration and efficient methods of extraction.

Gillis, J. J.↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Flexible Ramping Product Procurement in Day-Ahead Markets

Flexible ramping products (FRPs) emerge as a promising instrument for addressing steep and uncertain ramping needs through market mechanisms. Initial implementations of FRPs in North American electricity markets, however, revealed several shortcomings in existing FRP designs. Here, in many instances, FRP prices failed to signal the true value of ramping capacity, most notably evident in zero FRP prices observed in a myriad of periods during which the system was in acute need for rampable capacity. These periods were marked by scheduled but undeliverable FRPs, often calling for operator out-of-market actions. On top of that, the methods used for procuring FRPs have been primarily rule-based, lacking explicit economic underpinnings. In this paper, we put forth an alternative framework for FRP procurement, which seeks to set FRP requirements and schedule FRP awards such that the expected system operation cost is minimized. Using real-world data from U.S. ISOs, we showcase the relative merits of the framework in (i) reducing the total system operation cost, (ii) improving price formation, (iii) enhancing the the deliverability of FRP awards, and (iv) reducing the need for out-of-market actions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

129 I and 247 Cm in meteorites constrain the last astrophysical source of solar r-process elements

The composition of the early Solar System can be inferred from meteorites. Many elements heavier than iron were formed by the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), but the astrophysical sources where this occurred remain poorly understood. We demonstrate that the near-identical half-lives (≃15.6 million years) of the radioactive r-process nuclei iodine-129 and curium-247 preserve their ratio, irrespective of the time between production and incorporation into the Solar System. We constrain the last r-process source by comparing the measured meteoritic ratio 129 I/ 247 Cm = 438 ± 184 with nucleosynthesis calculations based on neutron star merger and magneto-rotational supernova simulations. Moderately neutron-rich conditions, often found in merger disk ejecta simulations, are most consistent with the meteoritic value. Uncertain nuclear physics data limit our confidence in this conclusion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear, time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluation of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This definition of robustness is an alternative to existing deterministic definitions that address both structured and unstructured parameter variations directly. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but also non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variations. Trivial extensions of the procedure permit alternate discriminants to be considered. Thus the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

Derivation of multi-dimensional ellipsoidal convex model for experimental data

This paper deals with determination of the best ellipsoidal model fitting the available limited experimental data. The problem is defined as that of finding the minimum volume ellipsoid containing all experimental data. A general transformation matrix for the rotation of N-dimensional coordinate system is first obtained by the Gramm-Schmidt orthogonalization procedure. The use of this matrix makes it possible to search in all possible directions to find an ellipsoid with a minimum volume. The general procedure is illustrated by examples in which the real data is utilized. An invariance property of the response with uncertain parameters of different physical nature is also discussed.

Zhu, L. P.↗

Hard Constraints in Optimization Under Uncertainty

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design of systems subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements are specified via hard inequality constraints. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations within a given uncertainty model. Uncertainty models given by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles, are the focus of this paper. These models, which are also quite practical, allow for a rigorous mathematical treatment within the proposed framework. Hard constraint feasibility is determined by sizing the largest uncertainty set for which the design requirements are satisfied. Analytically verifiable assessments of robustness are attained by comparing this set with the actual uncertainty model. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness characteristics of competing design alternatives, the description and approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, this methodology is applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

The 1997 Mars Pathfinder Spacecraft Landing Site: Spillover Deposits from an Early Mars Inland Sea

The Martian outflow channels comprise some of the largest known channels in the Solar System. Remote-sensing investigations indicate that cataclysmic floods likely excavated the channels ~3.4 Ga. Previous studies show that, in the southern circum-Chryse region, their flooding pathways include hundreds of kilometers of channel floors with upward gradients. However, the impact of the reversed channel-floor topography on the cataclysmic floods remains uncertain. Here, we show that these channel floors occur within a vast basin, which separates the downstream reaches of numerous outflow channels from the northern plains. Consequently, floods propagating through these channels must have ponded, producing an inland sea, before reaching the northern plains as enormous spillover discharges. The resulting paleohydrological reconstruction reinterprets the 1997 Pathfinder landing site as part of a marine spillway, which connected the inland sea to a hypothesized northern plains ocean. Our flood simulation shows that the presence of the sea would have permitted the propagation of low-depth floods beyond the areas of reversed channel-floor topography. These results explain the formation at the landing site of possible fluvial features indicative of flow depths at least an order of magnitude lower than those apparent from the analyses of orbital remote-sensing observations.

J. A. P. Rodriguez↗

Electrostatic dust remediation for future exploration of the Moon

Dust accumulation is one of the critical issues that must be mitigated on in-situ lunar explorations because an in-situ probe is exposed to small dust particles, which are easily attached to it, during its operations. The Lunar Dust Science Definition Team is organized by the Jet Propulsion Lab/California Institute of Technology through NASA’s Biological and Physical Sciences Division to define key science questions and assess dust remediation techniques. Here, we assess three electrostatic remediation technology concepts: electrostatic dust shield; surface electrostatically collecting dust, later called attractive surface; and electron beam — plasma jet inducing electrostatic dust lofting from a surface. We qualitatively investigate their maturity by defining six operational factors: Time and location; Amount of dust removal; Contamination of target surfaces; Operation duration; Installation; and Safety. In addition to these techniques, we discuss a supporting system that loads dust particles onto a test article to examine dust removal efficiency. Here, the results show that further development increases the maturity of all the technologies. While laboratory and theoretical demonstrations reported whether each technology robustly work on the Moon, which hosts a complex, heterogeneous dust environment, we find that it is still uncertain if this is the case because none has been tested in the lunar environment. Particularly, operation duration and safety are critical to be addressed further on both laboratory and spaceflight scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

THESEUS: A techno-economic design, integration and downselection framework for energy storage

Optimal selection of energy storage technologies is critical to ensure reliable integration of intermittent and often uncertain renewable energy in electricity grids. The consideration of a diverse set of energy storage technologies is required for a more sustainable deployment of energy storage. We present THESEUS (TecHno-Economic framework for Systematic Energy storage Utilization and downSelection), which is a comprehensive framework for the optimal selection, design and operation of energy storage systems. THESEUS includes rigorous models of major energy storage technologies at different maturity levels, such as thermal storage using phase-change materials or molten salt, cryogenic storage, mechanical storage in the form of compressed air and pumped hydro storage, chemical storage using hydrogen, and electrochemical storage in the form of lithium-ion, sodium sulfur and vanadium flow batteries. An illustrative case study on state-wide prospective energy storage shows that storage integration with fossil power plants could reduce the cost of meeting the grid energy demand by 20%, with mechanical storage as the best suited technology. Although high-temperature thermal storage has low storage efficiency, it is optimal for integration with renewable energy plants. In addition, Li-ion batteries are optimal for high ramping but low storage duration requirements. Furthermore, such insights can enable the deployment of both existing and emerging energy storage technologies to facilitate a smooth transition to a clean energy future.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

Deep decarbonization of the US power system would require rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, which are projected to provide a substantial share of electricity generation at the time of net-zero emissions. However, the exact share of generation met by VRE and the roles of other technologies in supplying key electricity services—energy and firm capacity—remain uncertain. This study employs a detailed model of the US power sector to decompose the provision and value of electricity services, including negative emissions, by technology across a range of deep decarbonization scenarios. Results indicate that while technology deployment and the share of services provided by each technology vary significantly depending on future technological and market conditions, the value composition and future roles of individual technologies remain consistent. These findings offer guidance for research and development priorities and provide insights to inform electricity policy and planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The search for life in the solar system

The search for extraterrestrial life in the solar system is reviewed in the light of present knowledge about the physical state of the planets. Arguing that all life in the universe is based on carbon chemistry, the carbon abundance in the solar system is discussed along with the composition of the planets, the presence of organic compounds (particularly amino acids) in meteorites, and the existence of complex organic compounds in interstellar space. Prospects for life in the solar system are evaluated by eliminating most of the bodies as potential biological habitats on the basis of temperature and lack of an atmosphere. Bodies eliminated in this manner include the moon, most of the other satellites, Mercury, Venus, the asteroids, and the giant planets. It is shown that the outlook for life on Titan is uncertain, but that Mars fulfills the minimum conditions for a life-bearing planet. Theories on the Martian surface environment are reviewed, the problem of the lack of water on Mars is examined, and the possibility of climatic changes is considered. The Viking mission is briefly noted.

Horowitz, N. H.↗

The Arecibo S-band radar program

Reduction to images of the 1983 monostatic Venus mapping data was completed. Analysis of the images, including detailed comparisons with Pioneer Venus data and Soviet Venera 15/16 images, continued. Feature locations in Arecibo Venus radar images produced between 1975 and 1983 were used to make a new determination of the rotation vector. This result is of general interest but was also required for planning and cartographic purposes for the Magellan mission. A new set of observations of Venus were made in March/April 1985, aimed at imaging low northern and high southern latitudes, including the south polar region, at 1 to 2km resolution. A limited number of ranging observations were made to Mercury and Venus. Ten asteroids were detected increasing the number studied with the Arecibo system to almost 40. A system to allow high time resolution, as well as high Doppler frequency resolution, studies of small asteroids or comets which make close approaches to the Earth was implemented. A radar detection of Halley's Comet was obtained when it approached to within 0.62 AU of the Earth in November/December of last year. It is still uncertain whether the echo is a reflection from the nucleus or from a cloud of cm-sized particles in the vicinity of the nucleus.

Campbell, D. B.↗

Quantifying Methane Leak Emissions by Fused Airborne Imaging Spectroscopy with in Situ Surface Mobile and Airborne Observations of a California Producing Oil Field

Methane (CH4) emission budgets remain uncertain and are projected to grow as oil and gas production from short-lived wells increases and their subsequent transport through aging gas distribution networks. Orders-of-magnitude variations in temporal, spatial, and emission scales present a key challenge to leak detection and quantification. Also, the probability distributions for large and stochastic, leaky systems such as geological reservoirs (by natural migration-seeps) and petroleum production from those reservoirs remain largely unknown, needed to address current approach limitations. The scale of many petroleum systems favors remote sensing, but the sensitivity of such systems often precludes detection of weak emissions. Consequently, an accurate evaluation requires that the relative contribution from the emission "tails" of small leaks also be quantified, which is best carried out using high-sensitivity in situ methods. Fusion of remote sensing and in situ approaches leverages complementary capabilities to address these limitations. We show results from mobile surface (AMOG) and airborne in situ (AJAX) and thermal-infrared (TIR) hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (Mako) data applied to a producing oil field in the California Central Valley near Bakersfield. AMOG is an automobile-based mobile lab that measures 13 trace gases, aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles, 3D winds and other meteorology, and atmospheric column measurements by solar spectroscopy at highway speeds. AJAX measures 5 trace gases and 3D winds at ~140 m/s. Mako is a broad-area TIR imaging spectrometer that can discriminate multiple gases present in each pixel acquired. In situ-derived, total field emissions were 31±16 Gg/yr CH4. This was compared with Mako-derived emissions from all plumes identified across the study site. We found that super-emitters were not the dominant emissions mode and the spatial pattern of plume locations from production infrastructure was correlated to geological structures.

Leifer, Ira↗

M-MRAC Backstepping for Systems with Unknown Virtual Control Coefficients

The paper presents an over-parametrization free certainty equivalence state feedback backstepping adaptive control design method for systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties and unknown virtual control coefficients. It uses a fast prediction model to estimate the unknown parameters, which is independent of the control design. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in numerical simulations.

Certainty equivalence control↗