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At least 775 records · Page 43

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

sCO 2 Brayton Energy Conversion Customer Discovery

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO 2 conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO 2 Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO 2 Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO 2 power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Common Badging and Access Control System (CBACS)

The goals of the project are: Achieve high business value through a common badging and access control system that integrates with smart cards. Provide physical (versus logical) deployment of smart cards initially. Provides a common consistent and reliable environment into which to release the smart card. Gives opportunity to develop agency-wide consistent processes, practices and policies. Enables enterprise data capture and management. Promotes data validation prior to SC issuance.

Baldridge, Tim↗

Ground and Airborne Methane Measurements using Optical Parametric Amplifiers

We report on an initial airborne demonstration of atmospheric methane column measurements at 1.65 micrometers using a widely tunable, seeded optical parametric amplifier (OPA) lidar and a photon counting detector. Methane is an important greenhouse gas and accurate knowledge of its sources and sinks is needed for climate modeling. Our lidar system uses 20 pulses at increasing wavelengths and integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) to map a methane line at 1650.9 nanometers. The wavelengths are generated by using a Nd:YAG pump laser at 1064.5 nanometers and distributed feedback diode laser at 1650.9 nanometers and a periodically-poled lithium niobate (PPLN) crystal. The pulse width was 3 nanoseconds and the pulse repetition rate was 6.28 KHz. The outgoing energy was approximately 13 microJoules/pulse. A commercial 20 nanometer diameter fiber-coupled telescope with a photon counting detector operated in analog mode with a 0.8 nanometer bandpass filter was used as the lidar receiver. The lidar system was integrated on NASA's DC-8 flying laboratory, based at Dryden Airborne operations Facility (DAOF) in Palmdale CA. Three flights were performed in the central valley of California. Each flight lasted about 2.5 hours and it consisted of several flight segments at constant altitudes at approximately 3, 4.5, 6, 7.6, 9.1, 10.6 km (l0, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 kft). An in-situ cavity ring down spectrometer made by Picarro Inc. was flown along with the lidar instrument provided us with the "truth" i.e. the local CH4, CO2 and H2O concentrations at the constant flight altitude segments. Using the aircraft's altitude, GPS, and meteorological data we calculated the theoretical differential optical depth of the methane absorption at increasing altitudes. Our results showed good agreement between the experimentally derived optical depth measurements from the lidar instrument and theoretical calculations as the flight altitude was increased from 3 to 10.6 kilometers, assuming a constant methane mixing ratio of 1.8 parts per million. The in-situ spectrometer did not show any significant deviations from the ambient concentrations. Further analysis using meteorological data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/) to derive the theoretical optical depth also showed good agreement with the experimentally derived values. The OPA lidar system with slight modifications has also been used to measure CO2, water vapor, and CO in the near and mid-infrared spectral regions on the ground.

Riris, Haris↗

Design Guidelines for Deployable Wind Turbines for Military Operational Energy Applications

This document aims to provide guidance on the design and operation of deployable wind systems that provide maximum value to missions in defense and disaster relief. Common characteristics of these missions are shorter planning and execution time horizons and a global scope of potential locations. Compared to conventional wind turbine applications, defense and disaster response applications place a premium on rapid shipping and installation, short-duration operation (days to months), and quick teardown upon mission completion. Furthermore, defense and disaster response applications are less concerned with cost of energy than conventional wind turbine applications. These factors impart design drivers that depart from the features found in conventional distributed wind turbines, thus necessitating unique design guidance. The supporting information for this guidance comes from available relevant references, technical analyses, and input from industry and military stakeholders. This document is not intended to be a comprehensive, prescriptive design specification. This document is intended to serve as a written record of an ongoing discussion of stakeholders about the best currently available design guidance for deployable wind turbines to help facilitate the effective development and acquisition of technology solutions to support mission success. The document is generally organized to provide high-level, focused guidance in the main body, with more extensive supporting details available in the referenced appendices. Section 2 begins with a brief qualitative description of the design guidelines being considered for the deployable wind turbines. Section 3 provides an overview of the characteristics of the mobile power systems commonly used in U.S. military missions. Section 4 covers current military and industry standards and specifications that are relevant to a deployable wind turbine design. Section 5 presents the deployable turbine design guidelines for the application cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Influence of Mo- and Ga-Supported HZSM-5 Co-Catalyst Configuration in Microwave-Assisted Methane and Ethane Dehydroaromatization

Microwave (MW)-assisted dehydroaromatization (DHA) using an Mo-supported HZSM-5 catalyst (Mo/HZSM-5) enhances the value of natural gas resources by converting stranded or underutilized natural gas into value-added chemicals in modular microwave reactor systems. This approach offers the potential to generate economic value. However, natural gas mixtures often contain multiple components, including ethane (C2H6) and propane (C3H8), which complicate the reaction pathways. Ga-supported HZSM-5 (Ga/HZSM-5) catalysts are generally inactive toward CH4 but exhibit higher activity toward C2H6 and C3H8. Therefore, investigating the combination of Mo/HZSM-5 and Ga/HZSM-5 in various catalyst bed configurations is essential. This study explores different co-catalyst bed configurations and CH4/C2H6 feed compositions to determine the most effective way for enhanced natural gas conversion and benzene production.

cocatalyst bed configuration↗

Spin-orbit-controlled metal–insulator transition in Sr 2 IrO 4

In the context of correlated insulators, where electron–electron interactions (U) drive the localization of charge carriers, the metal–insulator transition is described as either bandwidth- or filling-controlled. Motivated by the challenge of the insulating phase in Sr 2 IrO 4 , a new class of correlated insulators has been proposed, in which spin–orbit coupling (SOC) is believed to renormalize the bandwidth of the half-filled j eff = 1/2 doublet, allowing a modest U to induce a charge-localized phase. Although this framework has been tacitly assumed, a thorough characterization of the ground state has been elusive. Furthermore, direct evidence for the role of SOC in stabilizing the insulating state has not been established, because previous attempts at revealing the role of SOC have been hindered by concurrently occurring changes to the filling. Here, we overcome this challenge by employing multiple substituents that introduce well-defined changes to the signatures of SOC and carrier concentration in the electronic structure, as well as a new methodology that allows us to monitor SOC directly. Specifically, we study Sr 2 Ir 1-x T x O 4 (T = Ru, Rh) by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, combined with ab initio and supercell tight-binding calculations. This allows us to distinguish relativistic and filling effects, thereby establishing conclusively the central role of SOC in stabilizing the insulating state of Sr 2 IrO 4 . Most importantly, we estimate the critical value for SOC in this system to be λ c = 0.42 ± 0.01 eV, and provide the first demonstration of a spin–orbit-controlled metal–insulator transition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Active State Model for Autonomous Systems

The concept of the active state model (ASM) is an architecture for the development of advanced integrated fault-detection-and-isolation (FDI) systems for robotic land vehicles, pilotless aircraft, exploratory spacecraft, or other complex engineering systems that will be capable of autonomous operation. An FDI system based on the ASM concept would not only provide traditional diagnostic capabilities, but also integrate the FDI system under a unified framework and provide mechanism for sharing of information between FDI subsystems to fully assess the overall health of the system. The ASM concept begins with definitions borrowed from psychology, wherein a system is regarded as active when it possesses self-image, self-awareness, and an ability to make decisions itself, such that it is able to perform purposeful motions and other transitions with some degree of autonomy from the environment. For an engineering system, self-image would manifest itself as the ability to determine nominal values of sensor data by use of a mathematical model of itself, and selfawareness would manifest itself as the ability to relate sensor data to their nominal values. The ASM for such a system may start with the closed-loop control dynamics that describe the evolution of state variables. As soon as this model was supplemented with nominal values of sensor data, it would possess self-image. The ability to process the current sensor data and compare them with the nominal values would represent self-awareness. On the basis of self-image and self-awareness, the ASM provides the capability for self-identification, detection of abnormalities, and self-diagnosis.

Park, Han↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Developing Concepts of Operations Using Multi-Step Tool Techniques With Large Language Models

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Air Mobility Pathfinders (AMP) project is developing and evaluating concepts of operations (ConOps) for safe, secure, and scalable Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The AMP project’s Operational Concepts, Architecture, and Requirements Integration (OCARI) Team is using a Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) approach for integration, interoperability, and traceability of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) ecosystems centered around urban air taxi services. The team’s goal is to define structures and behaviors needed for system feasibility, readiness, and interoperability, establish a UAM knowledge base, and trace and validate assumptions and requirements relevant to AAM. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is spearheading an innovative digital engineering approach to integrate, communicate, and facilitate the research of multi-modal transportation systems. The Knowledge-based Digital Platform (KbDP) is a concept being developed that ties the workflows of Project Managers (PM), Principal Investigators (PI), and System Engineers together across organizational boundaries. It does so through the management of an information database defined by mathematical, data science, and system engineering principles. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms play a key role in this concept by extracting meaningful knowledge from relational and graph databases, document repositories, and system artifacts, which the human user leverages to greatly improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their research. Recent advancements in the field of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically models trained for tool use, such as Command-R , now allow for the reliable implementation of single-step and multi-step tool-centric systems. These techniques provide the LLM with a set of tools, in our case Python functions, that can be called on to answer a much wider range of questions compared to LLMs implemented using a traditional single-source or Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) approach. Through this method, the LLM can pull information from multiple data sources, such as relational or graph databases, document repositories, application programming interfaces (APIs), and SysML artifacts depending on the user’s question. The LLM can also output the information in a variety of different formats, using output generation tools, such as CSV, UML, or SysML artifacts. Additionally, tools can be assigned roles and can work together to provide answers to queries in an “agent” like approach, similar to that implemented by Microsoft’s AutoGen framework where different agents can converse with each other to accomplish tasks. Previously, our team developed a chatbot system with “agent like” functionality in the form of different “modes” the user could select from a user interface (UI), this architecture can be seen on the left in figure 1. Three different modes were implemented, the first mode allowed the LLM to utilize the structures and algorithms within a graph database to trace UAM requirements. The second mode gave the LLM access to a vector search capable of providing relevant information from thousands of document pages related to UAM ConOps and requirements. The third mode served as a general assistant where users could enter open-ended questions and custom prompts to utilize the LLM for different use-cases. This system improved the process surrounding generating and analyzing information related to UAM requirements, however, the implementation provided a clunky user experience. Users were required to know what mode to select within the UI in advance before entering their question to the selected tool. Moreover, the different tools were isolated from each other, they lacked bidirectional links that would allow for tools to collaborate to generate better responses. Our team is working on a new architecture, seen on the right in the below figure, with the goal to address many of the UX shortcomings of our original system while improving the accuracy and depth of responses from the LLM. This new system will automatically select the appropriate tool to use based off the user’s question. Each tool will be capable of calling on any of the other tools available to the LLM, resulting in a collaborative pipeline where tools can pass data between other tools until enough data is received to generate an answer to the user’s question. Using a locally deployed, open-source, LLM, the NASA OCARI team, in collaboration with Collins Aerospace, will implement a prototype application that will bridge knowledge across multiple sources to assist System Engineers (SEs) with requirements discovery and tracing, research question and use case identification, and assumption validation. Such a system will also allow SEs to more easily, and intuitively, explore the AAM ecosystem, ultimately improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the SE's research and decision-making processes surrounding ConOps development and validation. In this session, our team will provide a video demonstration of our new prototype architecture in action. We will also present an overview of our prototype system architecture and talk about its advantages over traditional LLM deployments along with how those advantages can provide additional value to the field of System Engineering.

systems engineering↗

Collapse and relaxation of rotating stellar systems

The evolution of initially spherical, uniform-density, and uniform-velocity-dispersion stellar systems is investigated by means of a three-dimensional N-body computer model. Some 100,000 simulation stars are used to follow the collapse and relaxation of the system for various amounts of angular momentum in solid-body rotation. For initially low values of the angular momentum satisfying the Ostriker-Pebbles stability criterion the systems quickly relax to an axisymmetric shape and resemble elliptical galaxies in appearance. The maximum flattening for these systems is equivalent only to an E2 system. For larger values of the initial angular momentum bars develop, and the systems undergo a much more drastic evolution. The apparent rotational and random velocities of the barred systems are very sensitive to the viewing direction. An additional complication is the frequent misalignment of the apparent major axis with the direction that reflects the maximum rotation.

Hohl, F.↗

Economic Evaluation of a Coupled Nuclear Power Plant and Hydrogen Production Facility: A Case Study

This study optimized the design sizes and operation of a power-to-hydrogen-to-power integrated energy system to allow a baseload power plant to operate flexibly in the energy market. In collaboration with a utility industry partner, the system, consisting of an electrolyzer, compressors, storage tank, and fuel cell, was optimized under conditions specific to the proposed project at the site of a nuclear power plant. The Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) maximized net present value by optimizing sizing of components and dispatch decisions. Revenues included sale of electricity, capacity payments typical of the New York Independent System Operator, and the section 45V hydrogen production tax credit of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the tax credit was assumed to be available to legacy plants in the absence of clear guidance at present). Under default assumptions which excluded many capital expenditures, the base case optimized solution had a net present value of $\$$1.4 million over a 30 year lifetime, with a 0.365 MW fuel cell operating nearly continuously and 85% of revenues supplied by the hydrogen production tax credit (which was counted as a revenue regardless of profit, thus assuming credit monetization or offset of taxes within the larger firm was possible in all years). Beyond the base case, a sensitivity study elucidated drivers of the economics as capacity payment rate and hydrogen production tax credit rate vary. Additional sensitivity studies also extended results to variation of other, previously fixed parameters, including the fuel cell capital cost, and to imposition of further constraints. Optimization was also repeated for the default assumptions but recognizing tax credits upon use of hydrogen rather than upon its production, producing no change in the optimal solution. Most notably, capacity payments above $\$$15/kW-month drove optimal fuel cells multiple times larger than those with the default estimated capacity payment of $\$$2.5/kW-month (approaching 11 vs. 0.365 MW), and these larger fuel cells operated rarely (capacity factors of ~0.03). Furthermore, when the hydrogen production tax credit was provided for only 10 years, under the specific assumptions of this study (e.g., neither site preparation costs nor electrolyzer capital cost counted), the optimal solution avoided economic loss by ceasing system operation after the 10th year. Viewed broadly, this study demonstrated the capabilities of DISPATCHES, which can be user-adapted to serve other industrial case studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Pneumatic load compensating or controlling system

A pneumatic load compensating or controlling system for restraining a load with a predetermined force or applying a predetermined force to the load is described; it includes a source of pressurized air, a one-way pneumatic actuator operatively connected to a load, and a fluid conduit fluidically connecting the actuator with the source of pressurized air. The actuator is of the piston and cylinder type, and the end of the fluid conduit is connected to the upper or lower portion of the cylinder whereby the actuator alternatively and selectively restrains the load with a predetermined force or apply a predetermined force to the load. Pressure regulators are included within the system for variably selectively adjusting the pressurized fluid to predetermined values as desired or required; a pressure amplifier is included within the system for multiplying the pressurized values so as to achieve greater load forces. An accumulator is incorporated within the system as a failsafe operating mechanism, and visual and aural alarm devices, operatively associated with pressure detecting apparatus, readily indicate the proper or improper functioning of the system.

Rogers, J. R.↗

Grid Value Investigation of Medium-Voltage Back-to-Back Converters

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the value that medium voltage back-to-back (MVB2B) converters can be realized through two potential applications: voltage regulation via the provision of reactive power supply or absorption, and distributed energy resource (DER) hosting capacity improvement via the controlled transfer of real power within the distribution system. Two groups of distribution systems have been prepared for the value investigation: the IEEE 123-bus system for the voltage regulation study and two utility-provided, realistic distribution systems for the DER hosting capacity improvement study. The results demonstrate that the MVB2B converter can realize significant value for the grid through these two applications. In particular, with the MVB2B converter transferring power between two feeders, DER-based power can be routed to nearby loads instead of feed through the distribution substation. Additionally, the size of energy storage elements used to enable higher levels of DERs can be significantly reduced.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

Grid Value Investigation of Medium-Voltage Back-to-Back Converters: Preprint

This paper presents the work which investigates the value that the medium voltage back to back (MVB2B) converter can bring to the grid, through two potential applications: voltage regulation powered by the reactive power adjustment function, and the distributed energy resource (DER) adoption enhancement powered by the quantitative power transfer function. Two groups of distribution systems have been prepared for the value investigation, including IEEE 123-bus system for voltage regulation study and two utility provided realistic distribution systems for DER adoption enhancement study. The analysis results have demonstrated that the MVB2B converter can bring significant value to the grid through the two aforementioned applications. Particularly, with MVB2B converter transferring power between two feeders, a substantial amount of backfeeding solar power can be avoided, and the size of the energy storage which is used to store the extra solar power can be significantly reduced.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

Best practices for photovoltaic performance loss rate calculations

Abstract The performance loss rate (PLR) is a vital parameter for the time-dependent assessment of photovoltaic (PV) system performance and health state. Although this metric can be calculated in a relatively straightforward manner, it is challenging to achieve accurate and reproducible results with low uncertainty. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of PV system performance is usually nonlinear, but in many cases a linear evaluation is preferred as it simplifies the assessment and it is easier to evaluate. As such, the search for a robust and reproducible calculation methodology providing reliable linear PLR values across different types of systems and conditions has been the focus of many research activities in recent years. In this paper, the determination of PV system PLR using different pipelines and approaches is critically evaluated and recommendations for best practices are given. As nonlinear PLR assessments are fairly new, there is no consent on how to calculate reliable values. Several promising nonlinear approaches have been developed recently and are presented as tools to evaluate the PV system performance in great detail. Furthermore, challenges are discussed with respect to the PLR calculation but also opportunities for differentiating individual performance losses from a generic PLR value having the potential of enabling actionable insights for maintenance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robustness of the Ensemble Score Filter to the Type of Assimilated Observation Networks

Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods depends on the observation network characteristics. In this study, we present initial experiments with the surface quasi‐geostrophic model, in which we compare a recently developed ensemble filter using score‐based diffusion models with the standard Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Our results show that the analysis solutions respond differently to the number, spatial distribution, and nonlinear fraction of assimilated observations. We also find notable changes in the multiscale characteristics of the analysis errors. Given that standard DA techniques will eventually be replaced by more advanced methods, we hope this study sets the ground for future efforts to reassess the value of Earth observing systems in the context of newly emerging algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗