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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

The Power of Exclusion using Automated Osteometric Sorting: Pair‐Matching,

Abstract This study compares the original pair‐matching osteometric sorting model ( J Forensic Sci 2003 ;48:717) against two new models providing validation and performance testing across three samples. The samples include the Forensic Data Bank, USS Oklahoma , and the osteometric sorting reference used within the Defense POW / MIA Accounting Agency. A computer science solution to generating dynamic statistical models across a commingled assemblage is presented. The issue of normality is investigated showing the relative robustness against non‐normality and a data transformation to control for normality. A case study is provided showing the relative exclusion power of all three models from an active commingled case within the Defense POW / MIA Accounting Agency. In total, 14,357,220 osteometric t ‐tests were conducted. The results indicate that osteometric sorting performs as expected despite reference samples deviating from normality. The two new models outperform the original, and one of those is recommended to supersede the original for future osteometric sorting work.

Lynch, Jeffrey James↗
DOE OSTI2015

Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS “pathways,” or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Inference for Porous Materials using Persistent Homology.

We propose a porous materials analysis pipeline using persistent homology. We rst compute persistent homology of binarized 3D images of sampled material subvolumes. For each image we compute sets of homology intervals, which are represented as summary graphics called persistence diagrams. We convert persistence diagrams into image vectors in order to analyze the similarity of the homology of the material images using the mature tools for image analysis. Each image is treated as a vector and we compute its principal components to extract features. We t a statistical model using the loadings of principal components to estimate material porosity, permeability, anisotropy, and tortuosity. We also propose an adaptive version of the structural similarity index (SSIM), a similarity metric for images, as a measure to determine the statistical representative elementary volumes (sREV) for persistence homology. Thus we provide a capability for making a statistical inference of the uid ow and transport properties of porous materials based on their geometry and connectivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kronecker-structured covariance models for multiway data

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and temporal dimensions. We will address the challenges of covariance representation of multiway data and review some of the progress in statistical modeling of multiway covariance over the past two decades, focusing on tensor-valued covariance models and their inference. We will illustrate through a space weather application: predicting the evolution of solar active regions over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Premixing quality and flame stability: A theoretical and experimental study

Models for predicting flame ignition and blowout in a combustor primary zone are presented. A correlation for the blowoff velocity of premixed turbulent flames is developed using the basic quantities of turbulent flow, and the laminar flame speed. A statistical model employing a Monte Carlo calculation procedure is developed to account for nonuniformities in a combustor primary zone. An overall kinetic rate equation is used to describe the fuel oxidation process. The model is used to predict the lean ignition and blow out limits of premixed turbulent flames; the effects of mixture nonuniformity on the lean ignition limit are explored using an assumed distribution of fuel-air ratios. Data on the effects of variations in inlet temperature, reference velocity and mixture uniformity on the lean ignition and blowout limits of gaseous propane-air flames are presented.

Radhakrishnan, K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Putting Priors in Mixture Density Mercer Kernels

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly infinite dimensional feature space. We describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using predefined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can en- code prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains template for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic- algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code. The results show that the Mixture Density Mercer-Kernel described here outperforms tree-based classification in distinguishing high-redshift galaxies from low- redshift galaxies by approximately 16% on test data, bagged trees by approximately 7%, and bagged trees built on a much larger sample of data by approximately 2%.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Adaptive Filtering Using Recurrent Neural Networks

A method for adaptive (or, optionally, nonadaptive) filtering has been developed for estimating the states of complex process systems (e.g., chemical plants, factories, or manufacturing processes at some level of abstraction) from time series of measurements of system inputs and outputs. The method is based partly on the fundamental principles of the Kalman filter and partly on the use of recurrent neural networks. The standard Kalman filter involves an assumption of linearity of the mathematical model used to describe a process system. The extended Kalman filter accommodates a nonlinear process model but still requires linearization about the state estimate. Both the standard and extended Kalman filters involve the often unrealistic assumption that process and measurement noise are zero-mean, Gaussian, and white. In contrast, the present method does not involve any assumptions of linearity of process models or of the nature of process noise; on the contrary, few (if any) assumptions are made about process models, noise models, or the parameters of such models. In this regard, the method can be characterized as one of nonlinear, nonparametric filtering. The method exploits the unique ability of neural networks to approximate nonlinear functions. In a given case, the process model is limited mainly by limitations of the approximation ability of the neural networks chosen for that case. Moreover, despite the lack of assumptions regarding process noise, the method yields minimum- variance filters. In that they do not require statistical models of noise, the neural- network-based state filters of this method are comparable to conventional nonlinear least-squares estimators.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simple Building Calculator

Whole building energy modeling is a powerful tool for analyzing energy use in buildings. For large buildings benefits of modeling services can easily be quantified due to the short payback period of the implemented measures. For small buildings, the upfront costs of developing robust energy models often deter building owners from investing in energy modeling services. To address this shortcoming, a ”Simple Building Calculator” (SBC) was developed. SBC uses pre-simulated results of a range of common measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. It combines whole building simulation results with statistical modeling techniques to predict energy impact of measures very quickly. In this paper we present the modeling methodology used to develop the data supporting SBC.

Building Energy Simulation, commercial building, E↗
NASA NTRS1997

Modeling the effects of exercise during 100% oxygen prebreathe on the risk of hypobaric decompression sickness

BACKGROUND: Several previous studies indicated that exercise during prebreathe with 100% O2 decreased the incidence of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS). We report a meta-analysis of these investigations combined with a new study in our laboratory to develop a statistical model as a predictive tool for DCS. HYPOTHESIS: Exercise during prebreathe increases N2 elimination in a theoretical 360-min half-time compartment decreasing the incidence of DCS. METHODS: A dose-response probability tissue ratio (TR) model with 95% confidence limits was created for two groups, prebreathe with exercise (n = 113) and resting prebreathe (n = 113), using nonlinear regression analysis with maximum likelihood optimization. RESULTS: The model predicted that prebreathe exercise would reduce the residual N2 in a 360-min half-time compartment to a level analogous to that in a 180-min compartment. This finding supported the hypothesis. The incidence of DCS for the exercise prebreathe group was significantly decreased (Chi-Square = 17.1, p < 0.0001) from the resting prebreathe group. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that exercise during prebreathe increases tissue perfusion and N2 elimination approximately 2-fold and markedly lowers the risk of DCS. Based on the model, the prebreathe duration may be reduced from 240 min to a predicted 91 min for the protocol in our study, but this remains to be verified. The model provides a useful planning tool to develop and test appropriate prebreathe exercise protocols and to predict DCS risks for astronauts.

NASA Program Environmental Health↗
NASA NTRS2017

Flight Path Control Analysis for Parker Solar Probe

An unprecedented NASA mission to study the Sun, known as Parker Solar Probe (PSP), is under development. The primary objective of the PSP mission is to gather new data within 10 solar radii of the Sun’s center. The purpose of this paper is to review the statistical analysis of trajectory correction maneuvers (TCMs) for PSP’s baseline trajectory. The baseline mission includes a total of 42 TCMs that will be accomplished with a monopropellant propulsion system that consists of twelve 4.4 N thrusters. Assuming current navigation models, statistical analyses for each reference trajectory during the 20-day launch period result in a total V99 of less than 100 m/s.

Mottinger, Neil↗
DOE OSTI2016

Role of Interligand Coupling in Determining the Interfacial Electronic Structure of Colloidal CdS Quantum Dots

Displacement of cadmium oleate (Cd(oleate) 2 ) ligands for the exciton-delocalizing ligand 4-hexylphenyldithiocarbamate (C6-PTC) on the surfaces of CdS quantum dots (QDs) causes a decrease in the band gap (E g ) of the QD of ~100 meV for QDs with a radius of 1.9 nm and ~50 meV for QDs with a radius of 2.5 nm. The primary mechanism of this decrease in band gap, deduced in previous work, is a decrease in the confinement barrier for the excitonic hole. The increase in apparent excitonic radius of the QD that corresponds to this decrease in E g is denoted ΔR. The dependence of ΔR on the surface coverage of C6-PTC, measured by 1 H NMR spectroscopy, appears to be nonlinear. Calculations of the excitonic energy of a CdS QD upon displacement of native insulating ligands with exciton-delocalizing ligands using a 3D spherical potential well model show that this response includes the contributions to ΔR from both isolated, bound C6-PTC ligands and groups of adjacent C6-PTC ligands. Fits to the experimental plots of ΔRvs surface coverage of C6-PTC with a statistical model that includes the probability of formation of clusters of bound C6-PTC on the QD surface allow for the extraction of the height of the confinement barrier presented by a single, isolated C6-PTC molecule to the excitonic hole. Furthermore, this barrier height is less than 0.6 eV for QDs with a radius of 1.9 nm and between 0.6 and 1.2 eV for QDs with a radius of 2.5 nm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Rooftop Energy Potential of Low Income Communities in America REPLICA

The Rooftop Energy Potential of Low Income Communities in America REPLICA data set provides estimates of residential rooftop solar technical potential at the tract-level with emphasis on estimates for Low and Moderate Income LMI populations. In addition to technical potential REPLICA is comprised of 10 additional datasets at the tract-level to provide socio-demographic and market context. The model year vintage of REPLICA is 2015. The LMI solar potential estimates are made at the tract level grouped by Area Median Income AMI income tenure and building type. These estimates are based off of LiDAR data of 128 metropolitan areas statistical modeling and ACS 2011-2015 demographic data. The remaining datasets are supplemental datasets that can be used in conjunction with the technical potential data for general LMI solar analysis planning and policy making. The core dataset is a wide-format CSV file seeds_ii_replica.csv that can be tagged to a tract geometry using the GEOID or GISJOIN fields. In addition users can download geographic shapefiles for the main or supplemental datasets. This dataset was generated as part of the larger NREL-led SEEDSII Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies project and specifically for the NREL technical report titled Rooftop Solar Technical Potential for Low-to-Moderate Income Households in the United States by Sigrin and Mooney 2018. This dataset is intended to give researchers planners advocates and policy-makers access to credible data to analyze low-income solar issues and potentially perform cost-benefit analysis for program design. To explore the data in an interactive web mapping environment use the NREL SolarForAll app.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1970

Introductory comments on the USGS geographic applications program

The third phase of remote sensing technologies and potentials applied to the operations of the U.S. Geological Survey is introduced. Remote sensing data with multidisciplinary spatial data from traditional sources is combined with geographic theory and techniques of environmental modeling. These combined imputs are subject to four sequential activities that involve: (1) thermatic mapping of land use and environmental factors; (2) the dynamics of change detection; (3) environmental surveillance to identify sudden changes and general trends; and (4) preparation of statistical model and analytical reports. Geography program functions, products, clients, and goals are presented in graphical form, along with aircraft photo missions, geography test sites, and FY-70.

Gerlach, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Bayesian model aggregation for ensemble-based estimates of protein pKa values

This paper investigates an ensemble-based technique called Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to improve the performance of protein amino acid p$K_a$ predictions. Structure-based p$K_a$ calculations play an important role in the mechanistic interpretation of protein structure and are also used to determine a wide range of protein properties. A diverse set of methods currently exist for p$K_a$ prediction, ranging from empirical statistical models to {\it ab initio} quantum mechanical approaches. However, each of these methods are based on a set of assumptions that have inherent bias and sensitivities that can effect a model's accuracy and generalizability for p$K_a$ prediction in complicated biomolecular systems. We use BMA to combine eleven diverse prediction methods that each estimate pKa values of amino acids in staphylococcal nuclease. These methods are based on work conducted for the pKa Cooperative and the pKa measurements are based on experimental work conducted by the Garc{\'i}a-Moreno lab. Our study demonstrates that the aggregated estimate obtained from BMA outperforms all individual prediction methods in our cross-validation study with improvements from 40-70\% over other method classes. This work illustrates a new possible mechanism for improving the accuracy of p$K_a$ prediction and lays the foundation for future work on aggregate models that balance computational cost with prediction accuracy.

electrostatics↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Determination of stability derivatives from flight data using a Newton-Raphson minimization technique

A modified Newton-Raphson or quasilinearization minimization technique for determining stability derivatives from flight data was developed and compared with simple-equations, analog-matching, least-squares, and Shinbrot methods of analysis. For the data analyzed, the solutions computed by using the estimates obtained from the Newton-Raphson technique fit the data and determined coefficients adequately. A further modification to include a priori information was found to be useful. A model statistically similar to the flight data was analyzed using the same methods (excluding analog matching), and the Newton-Raphson technique was found to yield superior estimates. An approximate Cramer-Rao bound was compared with the error covariance matrix of the model and was found to provide information about the reliability of the individual estimates obtained. The technique was successfully applied to data obtained from a light airplane, a large supersonic airplane, and a lifting body vehicle. It was shown that the reliability of the estimates of a given coefficient obtained from these vehicles depends upon the data analyzed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detecting Periodic Subsequences in Cyber Security Data

Anomaly detection for cyber-security defence has garnered much attention in recent years providing an orthogonal approach to traditional signature-based detection systems. Anomaly detection relies on building probability models ofnormal computer network behaviour and detecting deviations from the model. Most data sets used for cyber-security have a mix of user-driven events and automated network events, which most often appears as polling behaviour. Separating these automated events from those caused by human activity is essential to building good statistical models for anomaly detection. In this article, we present a change point detection framework for identifying automated network events appearing as periodic subsequences of event times. The opening event of each subsequence is interpreted as a human action which then generates an automated, periodic process. Difficulties arising from the presence of duplicate and missing data are addressed. The methodology is demonstrated using authentication data from Los Alamos National Laboratory's enterprise computer network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nepheline Crystallization Studies and the Structural Integrity of the Residual (SIR) - FY 2022 Study Glasses

In FY22 a set of 367 HLW glasses with compositions representative of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) processing region were aggregated and analyzed with the Structural Integrity of the Residual (SIR) model developed by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). An additional 12 glasses targeting 27 – 37 wt % alumina (in glass) and at waste loadings up to ~70 wt % were fabricated and added to the database. Collectively, this data set was analyzed with regression statistics and partitioning functions to reveal correlations between boron release and the chemical composition. FY22 results indicate that the SIR theoretical alkali-silicate precipitation term, Al 2 O 3 and B 2 O 3 concentration, and SIR computed non-bridging oxygen are significant predictors of chemical durability. A statistical model using the SIR parameters was shown to have greater overall accuracy than the nepheline discriminator model while maintaining false predictions of pour durability below 1%. In FY23, we will continue this work to focus on refining the SIR with glass compositions that challenge the SIR correlation terms, namely the theoretical crystalline precipitation and non-bridging oxygen terms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗