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NASA NTRS2020

Strong Sensitivity of the Isotopic Composition of Methane to the Plausible Range of Tropospheric Chlorine

The C-13 isotopic ratio of methane, δC-13 of CH4, provides additional constraints on the CH4 budget to complement the constraints from CH4 observations. The interpretation of δC-13 observations is complicated, however, by uncertainties in the methane sink. The reaction of CH4 with Cl is highly fractionating, increasing the relative abundance of 13CH4, but there is currently no consensus on the strength of the tropospheric Cl sink. Global model simulations of halogen chemistry differ strongly from one another in terms of both the magnitude of tropospheric Cl and its geographic distribution. This study explores the impact of the inter-model diversity in Cl fields on the simulated δC-13 of CH4. We use a set of GEOS global model simulations with different predicted Cl fields to test the sensitivity of the δC-13 of CH4 to the diversity of Cl output from chemical transport models. We find that δC-13 is highly sensitive to both the amount and geographic distribution of Cl. Simulations with Cl providing 0.28% or 0.66% of the total CH4 loss bracket the δC-13 observations for a fixed set of emissions. Thus, even when Cl provides only a small fraction of the total CH4 loss and has a small impact on total CH4, it provides a strong lever on δC-13. Consequently, it is possible to achieve a good representation of total CH4 using widely different Cl concentrations, but the partitioning of CH4 loss between the OH and Cl reactions leads to strong differences in isotopic composition depending on which model’s Cl field is used. Comparing multiple simulations, we find that altering the tropospheric Cl field leads to approximately a 0.5‰ increase in δ(13)CH4for each percent increase in how much CH4 is oxidized by Cl. The geographic distribution and seasonal cycle of Cl also impacts the hemispheric gradient and seasonal cycle of δC-13. The large effect of Cl on δC-13 compared to total CH4 broadens the range of CH4 source mixtures that can be reconciled with δC-13 observations. Stronger constraints on tropospheric Cl are necessary to improve estimates of CH4 sources from δC-13 observations.

Global model simulations of halogen chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pump-and-Treat Impacts on Aquifer Conditions and the Development of System-Wide Performance Strategies - 20377

The pump-and-treat (P and T) system on the Hanford Site's Central Plateau currently treats multiple contaminants within the 200-ZP-1 operable unit, including nitrate through its biological treatment processes. Although it was initially designed to support the 200-ZP-1 Remedial Action Objectives, the P and T system has evolved in use to address contaminants from other regions of the aquifer as well. The P and T influents are biogeochemically distinct, treating groundwaters with elevated concentrations of cyanide, uranium, technetium-99, and nitrate. Given the varying geochemical signatures from current and potential future sources, operational conditions, and amendments considered for treatment processes, there is a need to identify the impacts that the P and T effluent has on the aquifer, and how the aquifer affects P and T performance. To this end, laboratory efforts have focused on characterizing P and T effluent and its biogeochemical effects on the sediments through a series repacked column experiments. The P and T effluent is rich in particulate matter. A systematic inspection of this particulate matter in the P and T effluent showed significant levels of manganese/iron oxides, calcite crystals, relatively large organic matter molecules, and biomass. Therefore, the column experiments were designed and conducted for four different treatment systems: artificial groundwater, filtered P and T effluent, non-filtered P and T effluent, and chlorinated P and T effluent. Different levels of microbiologically- and geochemically-induced changes in the columns occurred and modified the flow systems. For example, physical filtration occurred in the sediments where the particulate material had accumulated in the top portion of the column. Reactive transport modeling of the laboratory experiments is being carried out so that the reaction network can be extrapolated to the field scale. These simulations will provide predictive evaluations of system performance based on P and T operational changes and aquifer mass loading and capacity estimates. This information can be used to address combined subsurface and operational challenges, such as the need for frequent well redevelopment to maintain injection capacity. This information also provides the technical basis for decisions related to the P and T system operations that support remedy optimization efforts and short- and long-term remedy decisions related to multiple operable units on the Hanford Site Central Plateau. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dosimetric and biological impact of activity extravasation of radiopharmaceuticals in PET imaging

The increasing use of nuclear medicine and PET imaging has intensified scrutiny of radiotracer extravasation. To our knowledge, this topic is understudied but holds great potential for enhancing our understanding of extravasation in clinical PET imaging. This work aims to (1) quantify the absorbed doses from radiotracer extravasation in PET imaging, both locally at the site of extravasation and with the extravasation location as a source of exposure to bodily organs and (2) assess the biological ramifications within the injection site at the cellular level. A radiation dosimetry simulation was performed using a whole-body 4D Extended Cardiac-Torso (XCAT) phantom embedded in the GATE Monte Carlo platform. A 10-mCi dose of 18 F-FDG was chosen to simulate a typical clinical PET scan scenario, with 10% of the activity extravasated in the antecubital fossa of the right arm of the phantom. The extravasation volume was modeled as a 5.5 mL rectangle in the hypodermal layer of skin. Absorbed dose contributions were calculated for the first two half-lives, assuming biological clearance thereafter. Dose calculations were performed as absorbed doses at the organ and skin levels. Energy deposition was simulated both at the local extravasation site and in multiple organs of interest and converted to absorbed doses based on their respective masses. Each simulation was repeated ten times to estimate Monte Carlo uncertainties. Biological impacts on cells within the extravasated volume were evaluated by randomizing cells and exposing them to a uniform radiation source of 18 F and 68 Ga. Particle types, their energies, and direction cosines were recorded in phase space files using a separate Geant4 simulation to characterize their entry into the nucleus of the cellular volume. Subsequently, the phase space files were imported into the TOPAS-nBio simulation to assess the extent of DNA damage, including double-strand breaks (DSBs) and single-strand breaks (SSBs). Organ-level dosimetric estimations are presented for 18 F and 68 Ga radionuclides in various organs of interest. With 10% extravasation, the hypodermal layer of the skin received the highest absorbed dose of 1.32 ± 0.01 Gy for 18 F and 0.99 ± 0.01 Gy for 68 Ga. The epidermal and dermal layers received absorbed doses of 0.07 ± 0.01 Gy and 0.13 ± 0.01 Gy for 18 F, and 0.14 ± 0.01 Gy and 0.29 ± 0.01 Gy for 68 Ga, respectively. In the extravasated volume, 18 F caused an average absorbed dose per nucleus of 0.17 ± 0.01 Gy, estimated to result in 10.58 ± 0.50 DSBs and 268.11 ± 12.43 SSBs per nucleus. For 68 Ga, the absorbed dose per nucleus was 0.11 ± 0.01 Gy, leading to an estimated 6.49 ± 0.34 DSBs and 161.24 ± 8.12 SSBs per nucleus. Absorbed doses in other organs were on the order of micro-gray (µGy). The likelihood of epidermal erythema resulting from extravasation during PET imaging is low, as the simulated absorbed doses to the epidermis remain below the thresholds that trigger such effects. Moreover, the organ-level absorbed doses were found to be clinically insignificant across various simulated organs. The minimal DNA damage at the extravasation site suggests that long-term harm, such as radiation-induced carcinogenesis, is highly unlikely.

DNA strand breaks↗
NASA NTRS1998

Pulsations, Shocks, and Mass Loss

This grant provided long-term support for my investigation of the outflows powered by young stars. Several major research results emerged during the course of this research, including: (1) The discovery of giant Herbig-Haro outflows from young stars that can extend for many parsecs from their sources. The first parsec-scale outflow to be recognized led to the realization that Herbig-Haro outflows, even those produced by low mass young stellar objects, can extend orders of magnitude farther from their sources than previously thought. Our preconceptions were to a large extent driven by the narrow fields-of-view then provided by CCD detectors. With the recent advent of large format CCDs and CCD mosaics, we have come to realize that most outflows attain parsec-scale dimensions. Even at the distance of the Orion star forming clouds, such flows can subtend a degree on the sky. Our work has led to the recognition of over two dozen giant. (2) The discovery that outflows are highly clustered. Even regions of relatively isolated star formation such as those in Taurus frequently produce multiple outflows. (3) The discovery of a new family of externally irradiated jets. During the last year of support from this grant, we made the startling discovery that there is a class of jets from young stars that are illuminated by the ionizing radiation field of nearby massive stars. The first four examples were discovered in the vicinity of the a Orionis sub-group of the Orion OB Association which is believed to be at least 2 million years old. Since the jets are photo-ionized, their densities can be reliably estimated. Most HH jets are shock excited, and are therefore notoriously difficult to characterize since their visibility and observed properties depend on the complex and highly non-linear processes associated with shocks. Furthermore, many irradiated jets are one sided rather than bipolar. Thus, irradiated jets may for the first time be used to accurately diagnose jet densities and mass loss rates, and to probe the physics of jet collimation, and may indicate that the jet production phase of certain young stars may last more than a million years. These three discoveries provide us with fundamental new insights into the star formation process, into the physical conditions inside and near star forming clouds, and into new ways to probe the physics and chemistry of such clouds.

Bally, John↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chronology of alkali anorthosite 14304 clast “b” records basin forming impact at ~3.95 Ga

Alkali-suite rocks constitute one of three major suites of lunar crustal rocks. As such, constraining their formation timescales and petrogenesis is important for understanding the earliest magmatic history of the Moon. However, the magmatic history of alkali-suite rocks is partly obscured by superimposed effects of major basin-forming impact events on the lunar nearside. Consequently, unambiguous crystallization ages of samples from this suite of rocks have not been determined. Here, the aim of this study is to better understand the petrogenetic history of the alkali-suite and the potential superimposed effects of impact metamorphism by determining Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for an alkali anorthosite clast from Apollo 14 lithic breccia 14304 termed clast “b”. The new chronologic measurements of clast “b” yield concordant Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of 3947 ± 13 Ma, 3975 ± 34 Ma, and 3937 ± 37 Ma respectively, resulting in a weighted mean age of 3949 ± 11 Ma. This age is not interpreted to date an igneous event related to production of the lunar highlands crust and instead the chronology and petrography of clast “b” are most readily explained by an impact event at ~3.95 Ga that caused near-complete isotopic re-equilibration of the Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar chronometers. The weighted mean age of 3949 ± 11 Ma of clast “b” is several hundred Ma younger than 4.3–4.4 Ga ages typically determined for samples of other crustal rock suites but in very good agreement with independent estimates for the formation of Imbrium basin ejecta and other marginally older impact events which are thought to have been sampled at the Apollo 14 landing site. Thus, although petrologic and geochemical examination suggest that clast “b” is a pristine igneous clast, its age likely records an impact event at the Apollo 14 landing site. Whereas the various determined ages of clast “b” do not reflect the timescales of alkali-suite magmatism, the relatively low initial Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of clast “b” indicate that its protolith evolved with very low 147 Sm/ 144 Nd and 87 Rb/ 86 Sr that are distinct from estimates for urKREEP but similar to that of lunar plagioclase. This implies that the igneous protolith of clast “b” derived from a plagioclase-dominated KREEP-rich source that must have formed after the formation of the urKREEP source at ~4.35 Ga but well before the impact event recorded by clast “b” at ~3.95 Ga.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fluidized-Bed Gasification of Coal-Biomass-Plastics for Hydrogen Production

Coal is one of the most abundant fossil energy resources in the United States and in the world. The recoverable reserves in the United States are estimated to be about 252 billion tons – more than 350 years of supply at current rates of usage. However, the share of coal in total primary energy consumption in the US has been declining over the years. The decline of coal is mainly attributed to cheap natural gas and precipitous declines in the cost of electricity production from renewable technologies such as wind and solar. Coal can potentially be used if it is coupled with carbon-neutral feedstock such as biomass-agricultural residues, forest biomass, and forest residues. Co-gasification of coal and biomass can become a negative carbon emission technology if the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is captured and sequestered. Although the biomass gasification process has a lot of similarities to coal gasification, the large-scale adaptation of power production sourced from biomass has not come to fruition. The main reason is that the power production from biomass is still expensive when compared with natural gas or coal power technologies. To address the feedstock cost, one approach is to use low-cost feedstocks, such as municipal solid wastes (MSW) or plastics, for gasification. Gasification involves the partial oxidation of coal and/or biomass feedstocks to produce a combustible fuel called synthesis gas (syngas) which is composed of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen (H 2 ), CO 2 , methane (CH 4 ), nitrogen (N 2 ), water (H 2 O), and other compounds that might be considered as contaminants. Raw syngas from gasification must go through multiple steps to produce high-purity hydrogen. The specific steps depend upon the quality (gas composition, contaminants, and their concentration) and condition (pressure and temperature) of syngas. The long-term goal of the project was to utilize coal and plastics together with biomass to produce energy and fuels using a gasification platform while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The main objective of this research was to examine gasification performance in a laboratory-scale fluidized-bed gasifier for hydrogen production. The specific objectives of the research were to: (i) study coal-plastic-biomass mixture flowability for consistent feeding in the gasifier; (ii) understand the gasification behavior of the mixture in steam and oxygen environments; (iii) perform thermal property characterization of ash and slag from the mixture feedstock and refractory-ash interface of the mixture under gasification conditions; and (iv) develop process models to determine the technology needed for syngas cleanup and contaminants. The study found that there was no apparent segregation when biomass, coal, and waste plastics were mixed together during feeding. Although there were differences in hydrogen production when individual feedstock were fed, the hydrogen concentration remained almost constant with various blends. Therefore, blending waste plastics with biomass and coal, which are all abundant, is a better approach for energy production. Results of the techno-economic analysis suggested that integration of advanced gasification (GTI’s R-GAS™) and syngas cleanup and conditioning technologies (RTI’s WDP and AFWGS) for clean hydrogen production resulted in substantial benefits, including significant capital cost and operating cost reductions. Advanced technologies resulted in 16% reduction in the hydrogen production cost (COH) from 2.94 $\$$/kg to 2.47 $\$$/g, with further scope for optimization and cost reduction. These advanced technologies also result in lower emissions, and improved energy efficiency.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating biofuel contaminant concentration from 4D ERT with mixing models

Here, we present the results of a lab-scaled feasibility study to assess the performance of electrical resistivity tomography for detection, characterization, and monitoring of fuel grade ethanol releases to the subsurface. Further, we attempt to determine the concentration distribution of the ethanol from the electrical resistivity tomography data using mixing-models. Ethanol is a renewable fuel source as well as an oxygenate fuel additive currently used to replace the known carcinogen methyl tert-butyl ether; however, ethanol is preferentially biodegraded and a cosolvent. When introduced to areas previously impacted by nonethanol-based fuels, it will facilitate the persistence of carcinogenic fuel compounds like benzene and ethylbenzene, as well as remobilize them to the ground water. These compounds would otherwise be retained in the soil column undergoing active or passive remediation processes such as soil vapor extraction or natural attenuation. Here, we introduce ethanol to a saturated Ottawa sand in a tank instrumented for four-dimensional geoelectrical measurements. Forward model results suggest pure phase ethanol released into a water saturated silica sand should present a detectable target for electrical resistivity tomography relative to a saturated silica sand only. We observe the introduction of ethanol to the closed hydraulic system and subsequent migration over the duration of the experiment. One-dimensional and three–dimensional temporal data are assessed for the detection, characterization, and monitoring of the ethanol release. Results suggest one-dimensional geoelectrical measurements may be useful for monitoring a release, while three-dimensional geoelectrical field imaging would be useful to characterize, monitor, and design effective remediation approaches for an ethanol release, assuming field conditions do not preclude the application of geoelectrical methods. We then attempt to use predictive mixing models to calculate the distribution of ethanol concentration within the measurement domain. For this study we examine four different models: a nested parallel mixing model, a nested cubic mixing model, the complex refractive index model (CRIM), and the Lichtenecker-Rother (L-R) model. The L-R model, modified to include an electrical formation factor geometry term, provided the best agreement with expected EtOH concentrations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dose Rate Analysis of the WCS Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

This report describes a confirmatory calculation for a proposed consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) to support the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s review of the license application submitted by the Interim Storage Partners. The scope of this report is limited to an assessment of the annual dose from direct radiation associated with Phase 1 of the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) CISF and the determination of the minimum controlled area boundary based on the 10 CFR 72.104 limit of 25 mrem annual dose to the whole body. The confirmatory dose rate calculations used the source term and shielding calculation capabilities of the SCALE 6.2.3 computer code system. The calculation method employed in the confirmatory calculations uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation from source to dose rate. This method differs from the two-step method used in the safety analysis report (SAR), which requires determination of the photon and neutron energy and angular distributions on the cask external surface and then the use of this surface source in a new radiation transport calculation to determine dose rate as a function of distance from the storage facility. A simulation was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present) but with only one cask containing source, and a total of 467 independent calculations were performed to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. Basic input data and assumptions used in the SAR (e.g., cask design parameters and design basis assembly characteristics) were used in this confirmatory calculation for consistency with the SAR. Local atmospheric conditions for skyshine calculations were simulated using US standard atmosphere data, which describe average air temperature, pressure, and density as a function of altitude. The determined minimum required distances from the WCS Phase 1 CISF to a contour defined by the 25 mrem annual dose limit were approximately 623 m (0.387 miles) in the N-NE direction, 594 m (0.369 miles) in the SSW direction, and 533 m (0.331 miles) in the E-SE direction and the W-NW direction. The annual dose results of the confirmatory calculation are in relatively good agreement with the annual dose values presented in the WCS SAR. The annual dose produced by the Phase 1 CISF at the nearest site boundary, 0.75 miles away from the CISF, was estimated by this study to be approximately 6.02E-02 ± 2.0E-04 mrem, which is significantly smaller than the 25 mrem annual dose limit provided in 10 CFR 72.104. The SAR annual dose rate value for the nearest site boundary was 7.52E-2 mrem, which included 7.73E-03 mrem due to postulated leakage of the FO-, FC-, and FF-canisters. A comparison with the dose rate values reported in the SAR for 16 detector locations, D1 through D16, on the protected area boundary is also included in this report. This comparison shows that the SAR determined higher annual dose values for detectors D1 through D14 by 12% to 45% and lower annual dose values for detectors D15 and D16 by 18% and 8%, respectively, as compared with this ORNL confirmatory calculation. Sensitivity studies have been performed to support a comprehensive review of the application. In these studies, the effects on dose rate of the modeled air volume, density, and humidity were analyzed. The sensitivity calculations showed that the air volume used in the Monte Carlo simulations was adequate and that a larger air volume would not further increase the dose rate due to skyshine contributions. The sensitivity analysis showed that simulation of local atmospheric conditions is important for the accuracy of dose rate estimates at large distances from the facility. Air humidity was demonstrated to have negligible effects on dose rate values for the simulated local atmospheric conditions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

The effects of redshifts and focusing on the spectrum of an accretion disk in the galactic center black hole candidate Sagittarius A(sup *)

There are firm indications that Sgr A(sup *), a compact, nonthermal radio source at the Galactic center, may be powered by the dissipation of gravitational energy as gas trapped from an ambient wind descends down the potential well, first through a quasi-spherical inflow (extending out to approximately 3 x 10(exp 16) cm) and then through a small accretion disk at less than or approximately = 5-10 Schwarzschild radii. Earlier three-dimensional Bondi-Hoyle numerical simulations have indicated that fluctuations in the accreted specific angular momentum can lead to a variability in the disk flux on a timescale of years. With greatly improved flux measurements at K and H, and the hint of a approximately 10 minute modulation in the IR luminosity, it is crucial to model the disk emission much more precisely than has been attempted thus far. In this Letter we take into account the effects of Doppler and gravitational redshifts, the light-travel time factor, and the light bending near the black hole to determine the measurable spectrum of Sgr A(sup *) in the increasingly important 10(exp 13) Hz less than or approximately = v less than or approximately = 10(exp 16) Hz frequency range. We find that the relativistic disk spectrum is much softer than its Newtonian counterpart, with a predicted UV flux roughly an order of magnitude smaller than had previously been anticipated. In addition, we find that when the physical conditions in the disk are taken to be consistent with the properties of the quasi-spherical infall (specifically, in terms of the accretion rate and disk size), only a slowly spinning or Schwarzschild black hole appears to fit the observations. Our calculations also reveal that the disk flux is much more weakly dependent on the observer's inclination angle than had been suspected on the basis of earlier Newtonian estimates.

Hollywood, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Laser Sounder for Measuring Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations: Progress Toward Ascends

The next generation of space-based, active remote sensing instruments for measurement of tropospheric CO2 promises a capability to quantify global carbon sources and sinks at regional scales. Active (laser) methods will extend CO2 measurement coverage in time, space, and perhaps precision such that the underlying mechanisms for carbon exchange at the surface can be understood with .sufficient detail to confidently project the future of carbon-climate interaction and the influence of remediative policy actions. The recent Decadal Survey for Earth Science by the US National Research Council has recommended such a mission called the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) for launch in 2013-2016. We have been developing a laser technique for measurement of tropospheric CO2 for a number of years. Our immediate goal is to develop and demonstrate the method and instrument technology that will permit measurements of the CO2 column abundance over a horizontal path and from aircraft at the few-ppmv level. Our longer-term goal is to demonstrate the required capabilities of the technique, develop a space mission approach, and design the instrument for an ASCENDS-type mission. Our approach is to use a dual channel laser absorption spectrometer (i.e., differential absorption in altimeter mode), which continuously measures from a near-polar circular orbit. We use several co-aligned tunable fiber laser transmitters allowing simultaneous measurement of the absorption from a CO2 line in the 1570 nm band, O2 extinction in the oxygen A-band (near 765 nm), and aerosol backscatter in the same measurement path. We measure the energy of the laser echoes at nadir reflected from land and water surfaces, day and night. The lasers have spectral widths much narrower than the gas absorption lines and are turned on and off the selected CO2 and O2 lines at kHz rates. The gas extinction and column densities for the CO2 and O2 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on and off-line singnals via the DIAL technique. We used pulsed laser signals, photon counting detectors, and time gating to isolate the laser returns from the surface, and to reject photons scattered from thin clouds and aerosols. High signal-to-noise ratios are required and the CO2 estimates can be sensitive to small drifts or other errors in the instrument, so the absorption estimates need to be quite stable for hours. We have constructed a breadboard version of the CO2 sensor that uses a low power fiber laser and a 20 cm diameter telescope. We have used it to make measurements of CO2 absorption in the laboratory and over 200-m to 2-km long open horizontal paths. These have been done in several sessions extending over multiple days, which allows us to assess the measurement stability and to compare absorption variations to readings from an external in situ CO2 sensor. We have also calculated characteristics of the technique for space including its expected measurement performance for different modulation types, and have performed an initial space mission accommodation study. We sill describe these results in the presentation.

Abshire, J. B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Long-term Trends in the Collection 4 Total Ozone Record from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

Long-term changes in total ozone affect the amount of harmful UV radiation reaching Earth’s surface and reflect progress made towards recovery of stratospheric ozone. Satellite total ozone data are also used to estimate long-term trends in tropospheric ozone, a reactive and potent greenhouse gas, by subtracting the stratospheric column timeseries from that of total ozone. For these scientific applications, the long-term stability should be better than 1%. Left unchecked, instrument calibration drift can produce a trend of this magnitude or greater. NASA has produced nearly twenty years of total ozone data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) algorithm. The drift in the OMI instrument as monitored by ice radiance calibration has been relatively slow, but it has reached a level of ~3% over the mission lifetime. This drift was corrected in the recently released Collection 4 OMI calibrated radiances, updating the Collection 3 calibration released in 2006. We have reprocessed the OMI total ozone record using the Collection 4 calibration and updates to the TOMS algorithm. We summarize these changes and evaluate their impact by comparing to the previous Collection 3 OMI dataset, the Suomi NPP Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) and Solar Backscatter UV (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD) total ozone records and other independent satellite total ozone datasets. Climatological radiance residuals from OMI and OMPS-NM are calculated and compared to investigate differences in spectral calibration that can cause drifts in long-term total ozone trends. We also analyze the tropospheric ozone record produced using the Collection 4 OMI total ozone and stratospheric column ozone from MLS. Collection 3 OMI data processed with the TOMS algorithm show a positive drift relative to other satellite and ground-based data of 1-2 DU per decade. Initial results show that this drift is reduced in Collection 4 OMI, due to the updated OMI calibration. In this work we will quantify the improvements in Collection 4 OMI relative to independent data sources at both the ozone and radiance level

Collection 4 OMI Total Ozone↗
NASA NTRS2003

Satellite Detection of Precipitation over the North Pacific

Intense extratropical winter cyclones often impact the West Coast of North America with strong winds and heavy precipitation. Several times during a winter season, short-term forecasts (24 - 48 hours) of these storms are seriously deficient with central pressure errors in the 10's of hPa and surface low position errors in the 100's of km. For example, 48-hr sea level pressure errors (forecast - observation) at buoy 46005 off the Oregon coast for the 2001 - 2002 winter season is plotted. In addition, two times the standard deviation (determined from pressure errors from the last four winter seasons) are also shown. It is evident from this figure that large forecast errors (i.e. greater than 10 hPa) occurred about 10 times this past winter at buoy 46005 with three events where the errors were 20 hPa. Beside large forecast errors of sea level pressure, numerical forecasts of precipitation for land falling cyclones can also be flawed. This is due in large part to the lack of accurate precipitation information over the ocean. Therefore, remote sensing techniques are the only viable option for obtaining accurate information on the distribution and intensity of precipitation over the North Pacific. Due to the radiative characteristics of precipitation sized hydrometeors at microwave frequencies, microwave sensors are able to detect precipitation over oceanic regions. Past studies have demonstrated the utility of passive microwave rainrate data for locating intense rainfall in rapidly deepening cyclones, in detecting developing polar mesocyclones and in determining frontal bands. There are currently many sources of microwave rainrate data: the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) (currently flying on three platforms), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B) (currently flying on NOAA-15, NOAA-16, and NOAA-17), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI). Data will soon be available from the Advanced Microwave Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) on the Aqua platform. In this paper, we present a new technique for mapping rainrate distributions over the North Pacific utilizing rainrate estimates from several microwave sensors and upper-tropospheric winds derived from geosynchronous satellite IR data. The goal of this work is to develop a way to obtain high temporal and spatial rainfall information over the North Pacific. This information will be used to support the verification of model derived precipitation distributions and to support the analysis of in situ measurements of rainfall during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE) field campaigns.

Smith, Jeremy↗