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Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause hazadous high-energy particles and geomagnetic storms that, in the more serious instances, can disrupt Earth power grids, communications, and satellites.
A complete catalog is presented, listing the general characteristics of every solar eclipse from 1901 through 2100. To complement this catalog, a detailed set of cylindrical projection world maps shows the umbral paths of every solar eclipse over the 200 year interval. Focusing in on the next 50 years, accurate geodetic path coordinates and local circumstances for the 71 central eclipses from 1987 through 2035 are tabulated. Finally, the geodetic paths of the umbral and penumbral shadows of all 109 solar eclipses in this period are plotted on orthographic projection maps of the Earth. Appendices are included which discuss eclipse geometry, eclipse frequency and occurrence, modern eclipse prediction and time determination. Finally, code for a simple Fortran program is given to predict the occurrence and characteristics of solar eclipses.
In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.
We analyze high-resolution spectra of the nearby (1.34 pc) stars alpha Cen A (G2 V) and alpha Cen B (K1 V), which were obtained with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. The observations consist of echelle spectra of the Mg II 2800 A and Fe II 2599 A resonance lines and the Lyman-alpha lines of hydrogen and deuterium. The interstellar gas has a velocity (v = - 18.0 +/- 0.2 km/s) consistent with the local flow vector proposed for this line of sight by Lailement & Berlin (1992). The temperature and nonthermal velocity inferred from the Fe II, Mg II, and D I line profiles are T = 5400 +/- 500 K and xi = 1.20 +/- 0.25 km/s, respectively. However, single-component fits to the H I Lyman-alpha lines yield a Doppler parameter (b(sub HI) = 11.80 km/s) that implies a significantly warmer temperature of 8350 K, and the velocity of the H I absorption (v = - 15.8 +/- 0.2 km/s) is redshifted by about 2.2 km/s with respect to the Fe II, Mg II, and D I lines. The one-component model of the interstellar gas suggests natural logarithm N base HI = 18.03 +/- 0.01 and D/H = (5.7 +/- 0.2) x 10(exp -6) . These parameters lead to a good fit to the observed spectra, but this model does not explain the higher temperature and redshift of H I relative to the other interstellar lines. The most sensible way to resolve the discrepancy between H(I) and the other lines is to add a second absorption component to the H(I) lines. This second component is hotter (T approx. equals 30,000 K), is redshifted relative to the primary component by 2-4 km/s, and has a column density too low to be detected in the Fe(II), Mg(II), and D(I) lines. We propose that the gas responsible for this component is located near the heliopause, consisting of the heated H I gas from the interstellar medium that is compressed by the solar wind. This so-called 'hydrogen wall' is predicted by recent multifluid gasdynamical models of the interstellar gas and solar wind interaction. Our data provide the first measurements of the temperature and column density of H(I) in the hydrogen wall. After considering the effects that a corresponding hydrogen wall around alpha Cen would have on our analysis, our best estimates for the parameters of the solar hydrogen wall are natural log N(sup (2))(H(I)) = 14.74 +/- 0.24, b(sup (2))(H(I)) = 21.9 +/- 1.7 km/s (corresponding to T = 29,000 +/- 5000 K), and v(sup (2))(H(I)) greater than -16km/s. Unfortunately, the existence of this heated H(I) reduces our ability to compute the H(I) column density of the interstellar medium accurately because, with slight alterations to our assumed stellar Lyman-alpha profiles, we discovered that acceptable two-component fits also exist with natural log N(H(I))approx. 17.6. We, therefore, quote large error bars for the H I column density along the alpha Cen line of sight, natural log N(H(I)) = 17.80 +/- 0.30. For this range in N(H(I)), n(H(I)) = 0.15 /cu.cm (+/- a factor of 2) and D/H = (0.5-1.9) x 10(exp -5). This is the first direct measurement of the H(I) density in a local cloud and allows us to predict the distance from the Sun to the edge of the local cloud along various lines of sight. This range in D/H is consistent with the value D/H = 1.6 x 10(exp -5) previously derived for the Capella and Procyon lines of sight. We cannot tell whether D/H ratio varies or is constant in the local interstellar medium, but we do find that the D(I)/Mg(II) ratio for the alpha Cen line of sight is about 4 times smaller than for the Capella and Procyon lines of sight. Therefore, either D/H or the Mg depletion varies significantly over distance scales of only a few parsecs.
Nature of solar flares - magnetic field energy source and prediction of flare occurrence
The thermodynamic stability of clathrate hydrate is calculated to predict the formation conditions corresponding to a range of solar system parameters. The calculations were performed using the statistical mechanical theory developed by van der Waals and Platteeuw (1959) and existing experimental data concerning clathrate hydrate and its components. Dissociation pressures and partition functions (Langmuir constants) are predicted at low pressure for CO clathrate (hydrate) using the properties of chemicals similar to CO. It is argued that nonsolar but well constrained noble gas abundances may be measurable by the Galileo spacecraft in the Jovian atmosphere if the observed carbon enhancement is due to bombardment of the atmosphere by clathrate-bearing planetesimals sometime after planetary formation. The noble gas abundances of the Jovian satellite Titan are predicted, assuming that most of the methane in Titan is accreted as clathrate. It is suggested that under thermodynamically appropriate conditions, complete clathration of water ice could have occurred in high-pressure nebulas around giant planets, but probably not in the outer solar nebula. The stability of clathrate in other pressure ranges is also discussed.
Although solar cells usually have chips and cracks, no material specifications concerning the allowable crack size on solar cells are available for quality assurance and engineering design usage. Any material specifications that the cell manufacturers use were developed for cosmetic reasons that have no technical basis. Therefore, the Applied Solar Energy Corporation (ASEC) has sponsored a continuing program for the fracture mechanics evaluation of GaAs. Fracture mechanics concepts were utilized to develop an analytical model that can predict the critical crack size of solar cells. This model indicates that the edge cracks of a solar cell are more critical than its surface cracks. In addition, the model suggests that the material specifications on the allowable crack size used for Si solar cells should not be applied to GaAs solar cells. The analytical model was applied to Si and GaAs solar cells, but it would also be applicable to the semiconductor wafers of other materials, such as a GaAs thin film on a Ge substrate, using appropriate input data.
Earth’s magnetosphere responds to solar wind input over time scales ranging from minutes to days. On minute times scales, researchers seek to identify discontinuities in the solar wind that may trigger transient magnetospheric phenomena such as flux transfer events or substorm onsets. On hour time scales, researchers seek to determine the solar wind phenomena that drive the growth phase of geomagnetic substorms and the storage of magnetic flux within the magnetotail. On longer time scales, researchers seek to determine the solar wind features than propel geomagnetic storms through their initial, main, and recovery phases. Researchers must, perforce, rely upon spacecraft located near the L1 libration point for observations of the solar wind input into the magnetosphere over periods ranging from hours to days. Some of the hazards of doing this are well known. Features seen far upstream at locations away from the Sun-Earth line may never arrive at Earth due to structure in the solar wind transverse to the Sun-Earth line. Alternatively, they may arrive at unexpected times due to errors in calculating their orientation and velocity. Other hazards when predicting the magnetospheric response to varying solar wind conditions are less well understood. When observations of large solar wind drivers at spacecraft far upstream and off the Sun-Earth line are used to select events for study, the ‘reversion to the mean’ effect associated with spatial structure and errors in arrival timing for solar wind features at Earth demands that the magnetosphere will actually be subjected to and respond to solar wind drivers with much lower strengths. Consequently, the magnetospheric response must saturate for the highest solar wind drivers.
In this work, we consider the consequences of phase transition in dense QCD on the properties of compact stars and implications for the observational program in gravitational wave and x-ray astrophysics. The key underlying assumption of our modeling is a strong first-order phase transition past the point where the hadronic branch of compact stars reaches the two-solar mass limit. Furthermore, our analysis predicts ultracompact stars with very small radii—in the range of 6–9 km—living on compact star sequences that are entirely consistent with the current multimessenger data. We show that sequences featuring two-solar mass hadronic stars consistent with radio-pulsar observations are also consistent with the inferences of large radii for massive neutron stars by NICER x-ray observations of neutron stars and the small radii predicted by gravitational waves analysis of the binary neutron star inspiral event GW170817 for our models that feature a strong first-order QCD phase transition.
Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.
A computer program (CTS 41B) used to determine the trajectory of a spacecraft signal raypath was updated to increase its usefulness during solar conjunctions (CTS 41C). The closest point of approach of the raypath to the sun is projected onto the surface and the solar latitude and longitude calculated. A sample computation and plots are given for the 1976 Viking solar conjunction. Eventually it may be possible to predict the communication link performance degradation in the near sun region due to solar activity.
The ratio of helium to proton differential intensities at a fixed energy per charge in the diffuse ion population during long-lived upstream particle events is compared with the simultaneously measured solar wind He/H ratio. It is found that the He/H intensity ratio at about 30 keV in upstream events is highly correlated with and on the average directly proportional to the He/H ratio in the solar wind, and larger than the He/H ratio in the solar wind by an average factor of 1.6. It is concluded that the solar wind is the parent population for the diffuse ions. The He abundance in the diffuse component is on average observed to be larger than in the solar wind. The observations are consistent with the predictions of Fermi acceleration models for a seed particle population drawn from the solar wind with little compositional bias and moderately enhanced in He during the acceleration process.
Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.
A reference of moderately detailed eclipse predictions and maps for use by the professional astronomical community is provided. The general characteristics of every solar eclipse and a detailed set of cylindrical project world maps which show the umbral paths of every solar eclipse from 1901 to 2100 are presented. The geodetic path coordinates and local circumstance on the center line, and a series of orthographic projection maps which show the regions of visibility of both partial and central phases for every eclipse from 1986 through 2035 are also provided.
The technique of linear prediction filtering is used to create filters relating solar wind parameters to the Dst index and to the polar cap potential. The square root of solar wind dynamic pressure and the solar wind electric field together are found to account for nearly 70 percent of the Dst variance. The prediction filter for the polar cap potential requires the square of the solar wind velocity and the solar wind electric field as inputs. The results suggest that both polar cap potential and ring current injection are primarily controlled by the solar wind, and that substorm expansions do not play a major role in ring current injection.
A kinetic framework for the ultrafast photophysics of tris(2,2-bipyridine)ruthenium(II) phosphonated and methyl-phosphonated derivatives is used as a basis for modeling charge injection by ruthenium dyes into a semiconductor substrate. By including the effects of light scattering, dye diffusion, and adsorption kinetics during sample preparation and the optical response of oxidized dyes, quantitative agreement with multiple transient absorption datasets is achieved on timescales spanning femtoseconds to nanoseconds. In particular, quantitative agreement with important spectroscopic handles—the decay of an excited state absorption signal component associated with charge injection in the UV region of the spectrum and the dynamical redshift of a ~500 nm isosbestic point—validates our kinetic model. Pseudo-first-order rate coefficients for charge injection are estimated in this work, with an order of magnitude ranging from 10 11 to 10 12 s –1 . The model makes the minimalist assumption that all excited states of a particular dye have the same charge injection coefficient, an assumption that would benefit from additional theoretical and experimental exploration. Here, we have adapted this kinetic model to predict charge injection under continuous solar irradiation and find that as many as 68 electron transfer events per dye per second take place, significantly more than prior estimates in the literature.
In comparison to wind and solar energy, tidal resources are predictable with a high degree of certainty. Although tides are inherently variable, their periodicity and predictability create the possibility of providing smooth power output to the grid. By spatially diversifying tidal devices to capture the tidal wave as it propagates through a system, aggregate power becomes smoother. Tidal energy assessments have indicated that energy extraction is viable in several regions around the world, leading to the development and testing of many devices. However, less attention has been given to the interface between energy production and grid integration, particularly in the United States. We evaluate tidal phases for several regions across the United States to determine if there is enough diversity within relatively close distances of one another. By calculating the cross correlations of estimated tidal current velocity time series between representative locations in defined regions, we show three regions in the United States that have the potential to aggregate power output from geographically diversified turbines to generate a smoother, baseload-like power profile.
In this work, we report on the spectroscopic analysis of RAVE J183013.5-455510, an extremely metal-poor star, highly enhanced in CNO, and with discernible contributions from the rapid neutron-capture process. There is no evidence of binarity for this object. At [Fe/H] = –3.57, this star has one of the lowest metallicities currently observed, with 18 measured abundances of neutron-capture elements. The presence of Ba, La, and Ce abundances above the solar system $\textit{r}$-process predictions suggests that there must have been a non-standard source of $\textit{r}$-process elements operating at such low metallicities. One plausible explanation is that this enhancement originates from material ejected at unusually high velocities in a neutron star merger event. We also explore the possibility that the neutron-capture elements were produced during the evolution and explosion of a rotating massive star. In addition, based on comparisons with yields from zero-metallicity faint supernova, we speculate that RAVE J1830-4555 was formed from a gas cloud pre-enriched by both progenitor types. From analysis based on Gaia DR2 measurements, we show that this star has orbital properties similar to the Galactic metal-weak thick-disk stellar population.