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DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the KSTAR experiments and future plan

The Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) device has recently entered a new phase of operation following the installation of a tungsten mono-block divertor, providing a unique platform to investigate high-performance, long-pulse plasma scenarios for future reactors. The 2023–2024 experimental campaigns demonstrated significant progress in commissioning the tungsten divertor, developing plasma operation scenarios, and achieving real-time control. Comparative studies revealed increased core radiation losses and associated performance degradation relative to the carbon divertor environment. Alleviation strategies, such as optimized neutral beam injection timing, boron powder seeding, and impurity control through gas puffing, were shown to reduce tungsten accumulation and extend high-performance phases, including record H-mode operation exceeding 100 s. International collaboration enabled the first demonstration of high poloidal beta scenarios with an internal transport barrier on KSTAR. Advances in control included upgraded real-time resonant magnetic perturbation schemes and disruption forecasting. Furthermore, divertor detachment control using a new surrogate-model-based approach with real-time radiation imaging demonstrated active impurity and heat flux management. Supported by enhanced heating, current drive, and diagnostic systems, these achievements offer valuable insights into tungsten impurity behavior, transport physics, and control strategies for future reactors including ITER. Planned upgrades toward a full-tungsten wall and ITER-aligned real-time plasma control will further establish KSTAR as a leading experimental platform for developing operational scenarios required to achieve steady-state, burning plasma conditions.

KSTAR↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Circular Economy Contributions to Decarbonizing the US Steel Sector

The potential benefits of the circular economy (CE) for decarbonization have recently attracted much attention in the academic and grey literature. The department of energy (DOE) industrial decarbonization roadmap highlight that in addition to the four pillars (energy efficiency, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)) identified in the roadmap, "scenarios [...] will need to be developed that incorporate materials efficiency and circular economy strategies". Moreover, the roadmap identifies hard-to-abate CO2 emissions across the five industrial subsectors included in the analysis (iron & steel, chemical, food & beverage, refining, and cement manufacturing). Thus, additional options to decarbonize the industrial sector, like the CE, could prove beneficial to address those hard-to-abate emissions. Moreover, they may be less costly, require less R&D or incentives, and be more readily adopted than other strategies such as energy efficiency and CCUS. While the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap includes some CE strategies (e.g., the increasing market share of steel from electric arc furnaces - which incorporate steel scrap), a deeper dive into what role the CE could play in the United States (US) industrial decarbonization is needed. In this work, we present several industrial decarbonization scenarios that incorporate materials efficiency and circular economy strategies for the iron & steel subsector. The scenarios identify barriers (including technical limits and constraints), opportunities, and R&D needs.Moreover, we estimate the contribution of those scenarios to reducing the industrial sector's CO2 emissions and their potential synergies with the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap's four pillars. Iron & steel manufacturing was responsible for 90 million tons of industrial CO2 emissions in 2020 - 7% of the industrial sector's total process- related emissions. Besides recycling - which presents technical limitations due to trace contaminants - CE strategies on the demand side could lower iron & steel manufacturing emissions (e.g., the development of lighter products or business models that encourage a more intensive use). This study reviews barriers, opportunities, and trade-offs for 5 material efficiency strategies. Many topics explored in the review call for further research.

barriers↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical analysis of the COHERENT data and applications to new physics

The observation of coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering (CEvNS) by the COHERENT collaboration in 2017 has opened a new window to both test Standard Model predictions at relatively low energies and probe new physics scenarios. Our investigations show, however, that a careful treatment of the statistical methods used to analyze the data is essential to derive correct constraints and bounds on new physics parameters. In this manuscript we perform a detailed analysis of the publicly available COHERENT CsI data making use of all available background data. We point out that Wilks’ theorem is not fulfilled in general and a calculation of the confidence regions via Monte Carlo simulations following a Feldman-Cousins procedure is necessary. As an example for the necessity of this approach to test new physics scenarios we quantify the allowed ranges for several scenarios with neutrino non-standard interactions. Furthermore, we provide accompanying code to enable an easy implementation of other new physics scenarios as well as data files of our results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmic millicharge background and reheating probes

We demonstrate that the searches for dark sector particles can provide probes of reheating scenarios, focusing on the cosmic millicharge background produced in the early universe. We discuss two types of millicharge particles (mCPs): either with, or without, an accompanying dark photon. These two types of mCPs have distinct theoretical motivations and cosmological signatures. We discuss constraints from the overproduction and mCP-baryon interactions of the mCP without an accompanying dark photon, with different reheating temperatures. We also consider the ∆n eff constraints on the mCPs from kinetic mixing, varying the reheating temperature. The regions of interest in which the accelerator and other experiments can probe the reheating scenarios are identified in this paper for both scenarios. These probes can potentially allow us to set an upper bound on the reheating temperature down to ~ 10 MeV, much lower than the previously considered upper bound from inflationary cosmology at around ~ 10 16 GeV. In addition, we derive a new “distinguishability condition”, in which the two mCP scenarios may be differentiated by combining cosmological and theoretical considerations. Finally, we discuss the implications of dedicated mCP searches, future CMB-S4 observations, and the target for experiments when considering the minimally allowed reheating temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxidation Resistance in 1200°C Steam of a FeCrAl Alloy Fabricated by Three Metallurgical Processes

Abstract FeCrAl alloys are a leading candidate material for accident tolerant fuel cladding due to their good performance in both normal light-water reactor operating conditions as well as their resilience to high-temperature accident scenarios. For commercial-scale production, new fabrication techniques need to be investigated. In this study, the effects of fabrication methods on the high-temperature steam oxidation performance of C26M (Fe12Cr6Al2Mo in wt.%) were investigated. Three variants of C26M were manufactured: wrought (cast and forged) (WC26M), powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PMC26M), and laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (AMC26M). All three variants were exposed to steam at 1200°C for 2 h. Results showed no significant variation in mass change between the variants after steam exposure. All three variants effectively formed stable protective alumina films with ~0.6–1.3 µ m thickness. This study suggests FeCrAl alloys have excellent resilience to high-temperature steam in nuclear reactor accident scenarios regardless of the fabrication method.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory testing methods to evaluate the reliability of occupancy sensors for commercial building applications

The energy performance of commercial buildings is greatly influenced by occupants which are highly variable and among the most unpredictable components of a building's operation. While most building control systems use fixed, predetermined occupancy schedules, these fixed occupancy levels can be quite different from actual occupancy. This can cause unnecessary energy consumption, particularly from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems which are responsible for approximately 60% of commercial buildings' energy use. The use of occupancy counting sensor systems integrated with building management system controls is one method that can be used to improve the energy-consuming performance of buildings. However, there is no standardized universal methodology and metrics to evaluate their reliability. The aim of this research is to develop a uniform evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy counting sensor systems in a controlled laboratory environment. The developed testing methodology includes both “typical” scenarios representing the occupancy scenarios of a typical commercial building, and “failure” testing scenarios which represent a range of potential scenarios that may impact a sensor system's reliability. These methods were then implemented in a case study to evaluate the performance of two novel occupancy counting sensor systems (i.e., door-centric, and camera-based). Results suggest that typical testing results can be used to compare the overall performance of the occupancy counting sensor systems; however, failure testing is also important to understand the weaknesses of the sensor system in order to select the suitable one for the intended use of the commercial building. In addition, the proposed methodology includes a modified confusion matrix which enables the ability to identify if failures are caused by over or under counting occupants and to what extent this occurs over the testing period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear microreactor transient and load-following control with deep reinforcement learning

The economic feasibility of nuclear microreactors will depend on minimizing operating costs through advancements in autonomous control, especially when these microreactors are operating alongside other types of energy systems (e.g., renewable energy). This study explores the application of deep reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time drum control in microreactors, exploring performance in regard to load-following scenarios. By leveraging a point kinetics model with thermal and xenon feedback, we first establish a baseline using a single-output RL agent, then compare it against a traditional proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controller. This study demonstrates that RL controllers, including both single- and multi-agent RL (MARL) frameworks, can achieve similar or even superior load-following performance as traditional PID control across a range of load-following scenarios. In short transients, the RL agent was able to reduce the tracking error rate in comparison to PID by one half to one third. Over extended 300-minute load-following scenarios in which xenon feedback becomes a dominant factor, PID maintained better accuracy, but RL still remained within a 1% error margin despite being trained only on short-duration scenarios. This highlights RL’s strong ability to generalize and extrapolate to longer, more complex transients, affording substantial reductions in training costs and reduced overfitting. Furthermore, when control was extended to multiple drums, MARL enabled independent drum control as well as maintained reactor symmetry constraints without sacrificing performance---an objective that standard single-agent RL could not learn. We also found that, as increasing levels of Gaussian noise were added to the power measurements, the RL controllers were able to maintain lower error rates than PID, and to do so with at least 10% and upwards of 150% less control effort. These findings illustrate RL's potential for autonomous nuclear reactor control, laying the groundwork for future integration into high-fidelity simulations and experimental validation efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fossil energy deployment through midcentury consistent with 2°C climate stabilization

Energy system transformation scenarios satisfying particular climate stabilization objectives, such as 2°C, suggest that a wide range of fossil energy outcomes could be consistent with such objectives. The underlying drivers of variability in these outcomes cannot, however, be easily separated. This paper attempts to shed light on such drivers using a single, state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model (GCAM) to evaluate the energy system implications of climate stabilization near 2°C. We focus specifically on the role of fossil primary energy through midcentury under different assumptions about carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy supply. In our scenarios, coal and natural gas primary energy are most sensitive to the availability of CCS, with bioenergy supply having a secondary impact on these sources. Looking across primary energy sources, we find that primary energy from coal declines by midcentury relative to 2015 in all GCAM mitigation scenarios considered here, whereas primary energy from natural gas and oil increases by midcentury relative to 2015 in most of the scenarios in which CCS is available. We explain these results in terms of fundamental energy-economic relationships and discuss the implications of these findings for broader energy policy and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $\$$250 and $\$$500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic feasibility of borehole thermal energy storage system connected to geothermal heat pumps for seasonal heating load of two buildings in Fairbanks, Alaska

Borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) is an effective solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads in cold regions. This study evaluated the long-term feasibility of a BTES system in the Fairbanks area, Alaska, through building energy modeling, resource characterization, and numerical modeling. The system was designed to store waste heat from a nearby coal power plant during summer and provide thermal energy during winter to geothermal heat pumps supplying heating loads in two buildings. Heating load profiles were modeled for the buildings using EnergyPlus, and the results indicated the annual heating load was 5.6 times greater than the cooling load. 40 borehole heat exchangers were pre-designed approximately 100 m away from the two buildings in terms of land availability and regulatorily optimized depth. The 20-year performance of the designed BTES system under two operational scenarios—one with a 5-year preheating period and one without—was numerically modeled using subsurface temperature and properties characterized through the literature review and thermal response tests. Both scenarios demonstrated that the BTES has the capacity to fully cover the heating loads in the two buildings throughout the 20-year lifetime. Production temperatures at central wells were 33 % higher on average than at outer wells in both scenarios. The 5-year preheating period increased subsurface and extraction temperatures, and correspondingly annual average and total thermal energy production was higher for 8 years than in the scenario without the preheating period. These results highlight the long-term reliability and sustainability of the BTES system in meeting heating demands over its lifetime, with the preheating period offering potential performance improvements. Implementing the BTES system in cold regions with high heating demand, such as Fairbanks, Alaska, could provide a long-term, sustainable energy solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for green hydrogen production with land-based wind in the United States

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is an efficient energy carrier and storage mechanism that can supply both stationary and transport energy demand. Rapidly declining renewable energy generation costs; technology innovations in wind, solar, battery storage, and electrolysis; and a global push for more sustainable and secure energy have driven increased interest in green H 2 production. In this study, we develop an H 2 scenario analysis tool to assist in rapid, high-resolution insights into future, green H 2 pathways to achieve policy goals and market competitiveness. Using this tool, we estimate H 2 production and costs for U.S., off-grid scenarios given varying policy and cost scenarios from 2025–2035. Results indicate that achieving economically competitive green H 2 production (below $\$$2/kg) is possible in 2030 with no policy incentives (one site achieves this target), while increasing policy support to include wind and green H 2 production tax credits enables widespread economic viability sooner, with sub-$\$$2/kg LCOH targets achieved by 2025 and 51.7% of sites achieving this target by 2035. Maximizing policy support through prevailing wage and apprenticeship credit multipliers enable widespread economic viability, including sub-$\$$2/kg of green H 2 by 2025 and even negative pricing by 2035. Regions with lowest LCOH values correspond to high wind resource areas and capacity factors. Achieving decarbonization goals with green H 2 depends on technology cost reductions and policy support, with a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$23.10 between no and maximum policy support scenarios, and a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$25.86 between current, conservative technology costs and 2035 projected technology cost assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗