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At least 775 records · Page 43

Guide for Regional Integrated Assessments: Handbook of Methods and Procedures, Version 5.1

The purpose of this handbook is to describe recommended methods for a trans-disciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national scale) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. An earlier version of this Handbook was developed and used by several AgMIP Regional Research Teams (RRTs) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia (SA)(AgMIP handbook version 4.2, www.agmip.org/regional-integrated-assessments-handbook/). In contrast to the earlier version, which was written specifically to guide a consistent set of integrated assessments across SSA and SA, this version is intended to be more generic such that the methods can be applied to any region globally. These assessments are the regional manifestation of research activities described by AgMIP in its online protocols document (available at www.agmip.org). AgMIP Protocols were created to guide climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology components of its projects.

protocol (computers)↗

Ammonia and Methane Dairy Emission Plumes in the San Joaquin Valley of California from Individual Feedlot to Regional Scales

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain, with high spatiotemporal variability and a lack of widespread in situ measurements. Regional NH3 emission estimates using mass balance or emission ratio approaches are uncertain due to variable NH3 sources and sinks as well as unknown plume correlations with other dairy source tracers. We characterize the spatial distributions of NH3 and methane (CH4) dairy plumes using in situ surface and airborne measurements in the Tulare dairy feedlot region of the San Joaquin Valley, California, during the NASA Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality 2013 field campaign. Surface NH3 and CH4 mixing ratios exhibit large variability with maxima localized downwind of individual dairy feedlots. The geometric mean NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio derived from surface measurements is 0.15 +/- 0.03 ppmv ppmv−1. Individual dairy feedlots with spatially distinct NH3 and CH4 source pathways led to statistically significant correlations between NH3 and CH4 in 68% of the 69 downwind plumes sampled. At longer sampling distances, the NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio decreases 20-30%, suggesting the potential for NH3 deposition as a loss term for plumes within a few kilometers downwind of feedlots. Aircraft boundary layer transect measurements directly above surface mobile measurements in the dairy region show comparable gradients and geometric mean enhancement ratios within measurement uncertainties, even when including NH3 partitioning to submicron particles. Individual NH3 and CH4 plumes sampled at close proximity where losses are minimal are not necessarily correlated due to lack of mixing and distinct source pathways. Our analyses have important implications for constraining NH3 sink and plume variability influences on regional NH3 emission estimates and for improving NH3 emission inventory spatial allocations.

Miller, David J.↗

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.

sulfates↗

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Hydrological models↗

Experiences in Applying Earth Observing Satellite Technology in SERVIR Regions with an Emphasis on Disasters: Successes, Lessons and Paths Forward

Earth observing satellites offer a unique perspective of our environment from the vantage point of space. Repeated measurements of the Earths subsystems such as the biosphere, atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and of humans interactions with their environments, allow for a better understanding of Earth system processes, and they can provide input for decision making in areas of environmental management and disaster risk reduction. SERVIR is a joint initiative of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) that began in 2005 and has been active in applying Earth observations for sustainable development in many regions around the world, recently the Lower Mekong and West Africa regions. This talk will highlight some successes achieved and lessons learned through SERVIR in Central America, Eastern Southern Africa, and the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, focusing on disasters. We will also present opportunities for enhanced decision making with Earth observations and geospatial technologies in the Lower Mekong region.

SERVIR↗

Invisibility of Solar Active Region Umbra-to-Umbra Coronal Loops: New Evidence that Magnetoconvection Drives Solar-Stellar Coronal Heating

Coronal heating generally increases with increasing magnetic field strength: the EUV/X-ray corona in active regions is 10--100 times more luminous and 2--4 times hotter than that in quiet regions and coronal holes, which are heated to only about 1.5 MK, and have fields that are 10--100 times weaker than that in active regions. From a comparison of a nonlinear force-free model of the three-dimensional active region coronal field to observed extreme-ultraviolet loops, we find that (1) umbra-to-umbra coronal loops, despite being rooted in the strongest magnetic flux, are invisible, and (2) the brightest loops have one foot in an umbra or penumbra and the other foot in another sunspot's penumbra or in unipolar or mixed-polarity plage. The invisibility of umbra-to-umbra loops is new evidence that magnetoconvection drives solar-stellar coronal heating: evidently, the strong umbral field at both ends quenches the magnetoconvection and hence the heating. Our results from EUV observations and nonlinear force-free modeling of coronal magnetic field imply that, for any coronal loop on the Sun or on any other convective star, as long as the field can be braided by convection in at least one loop foot, the stronger the field in the loop, the stronger the coronal heating.

Tiwari, Sanjiv K.↗

GC13I-0860: An Assessment of Surface Water Detection Methods for the Tahoua Region, Niger

The recent release of several global surface water datasets derived from remotely sensed data has allowed for unprecedented analysis of the earth's hydrologic processes at a global scale. However, some of these datasets fail to identify important sources of surface water, especially small ponds, in the Sahel, an arid region of Africa that forms a border zone between the Sahara Desert to the north, and the savannah to the south. These ponds may seem insignificant in the context of wider, global-scale hydrologic processes, but smaller sources of water are important for local and regional hydrologic assessments. Particularly, these smaller water bodies are significant sources of hydration and irrigation for nomadic pastoralists and smallholder farmers throughout the Sahel. For this study, several methods of identifying surface water from Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel 1 SAR, Sentinel 2 MSI, and Planet Dove data were compared to determine the most effective means of delineating these features in the Tahoua Region of Niger. The Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEInsh) had the best performance when validated against very high resolution Digital Globe imagery, with an overall accuracy of 98.6%. This study reiterates the importance of region-specific algorithms and suggests that the AWEInsh method may be the best for delineating surface water in the Sahelian ecozone, likely due to the nature of the exposed geology and lack of dense green vegetation.

Herndon, Kelsey E.↗

Changing Circulation Structure and Precipitation Characteristics in Asian Monsoon Regions: Greenhouse Warming vs. Aerosol Effects

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870's to present. During the same period, a mid tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS) [Lau and Kim, 2015]. The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellar overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Rainfall characteristics analyses indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Asian monsoon↗

The Magnetospheric Source Region of the Bright Proton Aurora

The bright proton aurora is generally understood to be the projection of the Central Plasma Sheet where there is sufficient particle energy to cause auroral luminosity and strong pitch angle scattering (presumably due to field line curvature). This region is often interpreted as the transition region between dipolar and tail-like magnetic topologies. The location of auroral features relative to the peak in the proton aurora has been used, for example, to argue that the substorm onset arc lies on field lines that thread this transition region. In this paper, we present statistics of proton aurora luminosity computed from Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions in Substorms electrostatic analyzer measurements for various radial distances in the magnetotail. These results are compared to ground observations of proton auroral luminosity and used to derive a statistical source region of the bright proton aurora.

Spanswick, E.↗

Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission Observations of the Outer Electron Diffusion Region

This paper presents Magnetospheric Multiscale mission (MMS) observations of the exhaust region in the vicinity of the central reconnection site in Earth's magnetopause current sheet. High-time-resolution measurements of field and particle distributions enable us to explore the fine structure of the diffusion region near the X line. Ions are decoupled from the magnetic field throughout the entire current sheet crossing. Electron jets flow downstream from the X line at speeds greater than the E by B drift velocity. At or around the magnetospheric separatrix, large-amplitude electric fields containing field-aligned components accelerate electrons along the magnetic field toward the X line. Near the neutral sheet, crescent-shaped electron distributions appear coincident with (1) an out-of-plane electric field whose polarity is opposite to that of the reconnection electric field and (2) the energy transfer from bulk kinetic to field energy. The observations indicate that MMS passed through the edge of an elongated electron diffusion region (EDR) or the outer EDR in the exhaust region.

Hwang, K.-J.↗

Developing and Diagnosing Climate Change Indicators of Regional Aerosol Optical Properties

Given the importance of aerosol particles to radiative transfer via aerosol-radiation interactions, a methodology for tracking and diagnosing causes of temporal changes in regional-scale aerosol populations is illustrated. The aerosol optical properties tracked include estimates of total columnar burden (aerosol optical depth, AOD), dominant size mode (Ångström exponent, AE), and relative magnitude of radiation scattering versus absorption (single scattering albedo, SSA), along with metrics of the structure of the spatial field of these properties. Over well-defined regions of North America, there are generally negative temporal trends in mean and extreme AOD, and SSA. These are consistent with lower aerosol burdens and transition towards a relatively absorbing aerosol, driven primarily by declining sulfur dioxide emissions. Conversely, more remote regions are characterized by increasing mean and extreme AOD that is attributed to increased local wildfire emissions and long-range (transcontinental) transport. Regional and national reductions in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are leading to declining spatial autocorrelation in the aerosol fields and increased importance of local anthropogenic emissions in dictating aerosol burdens. However, synoptic types associated with high aerosol burdens are intensifying (becoming more warm and humid), and thus changes in synoptic meteorology may be offsetting aerosol burden reductions associated with emissions legislation.

Ryan C Sullivan↗

Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

Some of the most extreme thunderstorms on the planet routinely occur in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region— where many government organizations lack the resources needed to fully assess the risk associated with hazards that result from high impact convective weather. This project combines innovative numerical weather prediction, satellite-based precipitation and land imagery techniques into a high impact weather assessment tool kit (HIWAT) that is building the capabilities of national meteorological departments and other weather sensitive agencies in the HKH region to predict, observe and effectively respond to threats and impacts posed by thunderstorms that affect the region, thereby enhancing extreme weather resilience in the region.

extreme weather↗

Satellite-Based View of the Aerosol Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Cordoba Region (Argentina) Using over Ten Years of High-Resolution Data

Space-based observations offer a unique opportunity to investigate the atmosphere and its changes over decadal time scales, particularly in regions lacking in situ and/or ground based observations. In this study, we investigate temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric particulate matter (aerosol) over the urban area of Córdoba (central Argentina) using over ten years (2003–2015) of high-resolution (1 km) satellite-based retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD). This fine resolution is achieved exploiting the capabilities of a recently developed inversion algorithm (Multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction, MAIAC) applied to the MODIS sensor datasets of the NASA-Terra and -Aqua platforms. Results of this investigation show a clear seasonality of AOD over the investigated area. This is found to be shaped by an intricate superposition of aerosol sources, acting over different spatial scales and affecting the region with different yearly cycles. During late winter and spring (August-October), local as well as near- and long-range transported biomass burning (BB) aerosols enhance the Córdoba aerosol load, and AOD levels reach their maximum values (>0.35 at 0.47 µm). The fine AOD spatial resolution allowed to disclose that, in this period, AOD maxima are found in the rural/agricultural area around the city, reaching up to the city boundaries pinpointing that fires of local and near-range origin play a major role in the AOD enhancement. A reverse spatial AOD gradient is found from December to March, the urban area showing AODs 40–80% higher than in the city surroundings. In fact, during summer, the columnar aerosol load over the Córdoba region is dominated by local (urban and industrial) sources, likely coupled to secondary processes driven by enhanced radiation and mixing effects within a deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL). With the support of modelled AOD data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), we further investigated into the chemical nature of AOD. The results suggest that mineral dust is also an important aerosol component in Córdoba, with maximum impact from November to February. The use of a long-term dataset finally allowed a preliminary assessment of AOD trends over the Córdoba region. For those months in which local sources and secondary processes were found to dominate the AOD (December to March), we found a positive AOD trend in the Córdoba outskirts, mainly in the areas with maximum urbanization/population growth over the investigated decade. Conversely, a negative AOD trend (up to −0.1 per decade) is observed all over the rural area of Córdoba during the BB season, this being attributed to a decrease of fires both at the local and the continental scale.

aerosols↗

Birth of a Bipolar Active Region in a Small Coronal Hole

We report on an the emergence of an anemone active region in a very small coronal hole (about 120'' across), beginning at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emergence was initially observed by an amateur astronomer (RW) in an H-alpha movie from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG); it attracted the attention of the observer because there was no active region at the site of the H-alpha brightening. To examine the region in detail, we use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), provided by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) in wavelengths 193 Å, 211 Å, 304 Å, and 94 Å, and with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Data analysis and calibration activities such as scaling, rotation so that north is up, and removal of solar rotation are accomplished with SunPy. The emergence seen in HMI data begins with the appearance of a bipole close to the center of the coronal hole, followed by the appearance and growth of a coronal anemone in AIA-EUV images; as the emergence proceeds, the anemone fills the coronal hole in AIA wavelengths. The interchange reconnection of the emerging closed field with ambient open field builds the anemone and shifts the coronal hole from one side of the anemone to the other. Eventually, a sunspot forms in one foot of the emerging field. To date, studies of observations with SDO of anemone emergence in on-disk coronal holes are rare. This bipolar flux emergence episode fits well with the standard picture for the production of coronal-anemone regions.

Adams, Mitzi↗

Understanding Heating in Active Region Cores through Machine Learning. I. Numerical Modeling and Predicted Observables

To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward modeling active region emission using magnetic field extrapolations and field-aligned hydrodynamic models. We use this pipeline to predict time-dependent emission from active region NOAA 1158 for low-, intermediate-, and high-frequency nanoflares. In each pixel of our predicted multi-wavelength, time-dependent images, we compute two commonly used diagnostics: the emission measure slope and the time lag. We find that signatures of the heating frequency persist in both of these diagnostics. In particular, our results show that the distribution of emission measure slopes narrows and the mean decreases with decreasing heating frequency and that the range of emission measure slopes is consistent with past observational and modeling work. Furthermore, we find that the time lag becomes increasingly spatially coherent with decreasing heating frequency while the distribution of time lags across the whole active region becomes more broad with increasing heating frequency. In a follow-up paper, we train a random forest classifier on these predicted diagnostics and use this model to classify real observations of NOAA 1158 in terms of the underlying heating frequency.

UV radiation↗

Mapping in the Northern Martian Plains: A Renewed Survey of the Acidalia Mensae and Colles Regions

Acidalia Mensae is an oblong field of tilted mesas roughly trending east-west, with Acidalia Colles encompassing a regime of knobby terrain trending northeast from the center of the mesa region. Each province extends for approximately 300km in their respective directions in the heart of the vast plains of Acidalia Planitia. As part of efforts in the 1980s targeting evidences for a putative northern Martian paleo-ocean – manifesting itself most notably in geologic maps of quadrangles in East Acidalia – the Acidalia Mensae region was selected and divided into three quadrangles ranging across 26.8 deg W to 36 deg W and 47.5 deg N to 52.5 deg N. The region was then mapped at a 1:1,000,000 scale using Canvas on a Viking base map. We present an updated draft of this document converted into ArcMap, including a completed fourth quadrangle that covers the bulk of the Acidalia Colles region. Previously mapped units have been updated according to the availability of new higher-resolution data – particularly, Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) Day Infrared (IR) data as a base map, paired with supporting Context Camera (CTX) and High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) HRSC stamps extracted from the Mars Orbital Data Explorer repository. Geologic units and contacts for the mesa and knob regimes, interstitial alluvial units and the surrounding plains are comprehensively presented alongside lower-level features such as levels (hypothesized to be shorelines) and pitted cones (putative pingos). The project was mapped in a transverse Mercator projection. Upon minor revision, the map is to be submitted to the USGS for publication.

Siwabessy, Andrew G.↗

Boundary Condition Controls on the High-Sand-Flux Regions of Mars

Wind has been an enduring geologic agent throughout the history of Mars, but it is often unclear where and why sediment is mobile in the current epoch. We investigated whether eolian bed-form (dune and ripple) transport rates are depressed or enhanced in some areas by local or regional boundary conditions (e.g., topography, sand supply/availability). Bedform heights, migration rates, and sand fluxes all span two to three orders of magnitude across Mars, but we found that areas with the highest sand fluxes are concentrated in three regions: Syrtis Major, Hellespontus Montes, and the north polar erg. All regions are located near prominent transition zones of topography (e.g., basins, polar caps) and thermophysical properties (e.g., albedo variations); these are not known to be critical terrestrial boundary conditions. The two regions adjacent to major impact basins (Hellas and Isidis Planitia) showed radially outward upslope winds driving sand movement, although seasonally reversing wind regimes were also observed. The northern polar dunes yielded the highest known fluxes on the planet, driven by summer katabatic winds modulated by the seasonal CO2 cap retreat—processes not known to affect terrestrial dunes. In contrast, southern dune fields (<45°S) were less mobile, likely as a result of seasonal frost and ground ice suppressing sand availability. Results suggest that, unlike on Earth, large-scale topographic and thermophysical variabilities play a leading role in driving sand fluxes on Mars.

Matthew Chojnacki↗

A Systematic Review of Local to Regional Yield Forecasting Approaches and Frequently Used Data Resources

Forecasting crop yields, or providing an expectation of ex-ante harvest amounts, is highly relevant to the whole agricultural production chain. Farmers can adapt their management, traders or insurers their pricing schemes, suppliers their stocks, logistic companies their routes, national authorities their food balance sheets to guide import or export and, finally, international aid organizations can mobilize reliefs. Evidence has grown in the literature that such forecasts with a meaningful lead time are possible on various geographic scales and for a broad range of crops. Here, we present a systematic review of the methods applied in end-of-season yield forecasting and three frequently used data sources: weather data, satellite data and crop masks. Our literature database comprises 362 studies (2004–2019) which were evaluated regarding methods, crops, regions, data sources, lead time and performance. Moreover, we present 24 sources of real-time and predictive weather data, 21 sources of remote sensing data and 16 crop masks. Yield forecasting in our literature sample has been performed for 44 crops in 71 countries, also including many non-staple crops, but with an apparent bias in regions and crops. Forecasting performance depends on various factors, including crop, region, method, lead time to harvest and input diversity. Our systematic review supports a broader application of locally successful approaches at larger scales by providing a comprehensive, accessible compendium of necessary information for yield forecasting. We discuss improvement potentials with respect to methodological approaches and available data sources. We additionally suggest standardization procedures for future forecasting studies and encourage studying additional crops and geographic regions. Implications of forecasts for different target groups on different scales and the adaptation towards climate change are also discussed.

Seasonal crop yield forecasting↗