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At least 775 records · Page 43

Study of Quadrupole Fringe Fields in the Interaction Region of the Hadron Storage Ring of the Electron Ion Collider

Fringe fields in quadrupole magnets are usually neglected in studies of beam dynamics at accelerators. However, the extreme optical parameters present in the final focus of a collider such as the Electron–Ion Collider (EIC) may give rise to effects that should not be overlooked. The calculation of quadrupole fringe fields presented in this study follows the procedure outlined in Ref. [1], specialized to the case of a straight reference orbit (i.e., with no dipole field component). A right-handed Cartesian coordinate system is employed, with the $z$-axis aligned with the quadrupole axis and $x$ and $y$ denoting the horizontal and vertical transverse coordinates, respectively. The magnetic quadrupole field gradient, $G = \partial B_y / \partial x$, transitions from its peak value inside the quadrupole—where it is nearly independent of the longitudinal coordinate $z$—to zero at some distance beyond the magnet edge. Consequently, $G$ is treated as a function of $z$. The region over which this variation occurs is defined as the quadrupole fringe field region. The study begins with the development of a description of the magnetic field in the fringe region using a power-series expansion in the transverse coordinates $x$and $y$, consistent with the longitudinally varying gradient. A model for the $z$-dependence of the gradient is then proposed and adjusted to reproduce magnetic field data obtained from three-dimensional field calculations. To evaluate the impact of the fringe fields on beam dynamics, the corresponding vector potential is derived and incorporated into a Hamiltonian formulation of particle motion. The significance of the fringe fields is quantified by calculating the amplitude-dependent tune shift from the Hamiltonian. Using linear beam optics parameters of the Hadron Storage Ring (HSR) of the EIC, the tune shift due to the fringe fields of all quadrupole magnets in the IR-6 interaction region is evaluated. Finally, the resulting tune shifts are compared with those arising from other nonlinear field components present in the HSR.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Risk Inventory for Commercial Storage Projects

The “Southeast Regional CO2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership” (SECARB USA) project supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Odice of Fossil Energy's (FE) mission to help the United States meet its need for secure, adordable, and environmentally sound fossil energy supplies by utilizing the advancements made since 2003 by the Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (RCSP) Initiative to continue to identify and address knowledge gaps. The SECARB-USA regional initiative encompasses the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and portions of Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia as noted in Figure 1. The primary objective of the project is to identify and address regional onshore storage and transport challenges facing commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth's climate system and its global carbon cycle. This study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO 2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions. Models with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO 2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean's capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO 2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of p CO 2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven p CO 2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline. Our results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20 th and the entirety of the 21 st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

AMOC↗

Climatology Perspective of Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effect for Cirrus Clouds over the Global Oceans

Long-term satellite climate data records (CDRs) of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) of cirrus clouds over the global oceans from a climatology perspective. Our study focuses on identifying the sensitive regimes and active regions where AIE signatures easily manifest themselves in the sense of the long-term average of cloud and aerosol variables. The aerosol index (AIX) regimes of AIX < 0.18 and 0.18 < AIX < 0.46 are respectively identified as the sensitive regimes for negative and positive aerosol albedos and lifetime effects of cirrus clouds. Relative humidity first decreases (along with upward motions) and then reverses to increase (along with downward motions) in the first regime of negative aerosol albedo and lifetime effects. Relatively wet and strong upward motions are the favorable meteorological conditions for the second regime of positive aerosol albedo and lifetime effects. Two swath regions extending from 15°N to 30°N over the east coastal oceans of China and the USA are the active regions of positive aerosol albedo effects. Positive aerosol lifetime effects are only active or easy to manifest in the regions where a positive aerosol albedo effect is active. The results based on the long-term averaged satellite observations are valuable for the evaluation and improvement of aerosol-cloud interactions for cirrus clouds in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Region-Growing Segmentation Approach to Delineating Timberline from Satellite-Derived Tree Fractional Cover Products

Timberline marks the transitions from continuous forests to sparse forests and tundra landscapes. As the spatial distribution and dynamics of timberline are closely associated with regional energy and carbon balance, mapping timberline is important to a wide range of environmental and ecological studies. However, current timberline delineation approaches remain under-developed. We proposed an automatic timberline delineation method based on a seeded region-growing segmentation technique and satellite-derived products of tree fractional cover. We applied our approach to the West Siberian Plain and Alaska treeline regions as defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for the accurate delineation of the timberlines that spatially align well with very-high-resolution satellite images. Based on the delineated timberlines, we find regional-scale tree encroachment to be not as substantial as previously reported. The proposed approach can be applied to understanding climate-induced forest responses and inform forest management practices.

Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map↗

Chemical Complexity of Phosphorous-bearing Species in Various Regions of the Interstellar Medium

Phosphorus-related species are not known to be as omnipresent in space as hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur-bearing species. Astronomers spotted very few P-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium and circumstellar envelopes. Limited discovery of the P-bearing species imposes severe constraints in modeling the P-chemistry. In this paper, we carry out extensive chemical models to follow the fate of P-bearing species in diffuse clouds, photon-dominated or photodissociation regions (PDRs), and hot cores/corinos. We notice a curious correlation between the abundances of PO and PN and atomic nitrogen. Since N atoms are more abundant in diffuse clouds and PDRs than in the hot core/corino region, PO/PN reflects <1 in diffuse clouds, ≪1 in PDRs, and >1 in the late warm-up evolutionary stage of the hot core/corino regions. During the end of the post-warm-up stage, we obtain PO/PN > 1 for hot core and <1 for its low-mass analog. We employ a radiative transfer model to investigate the transitions of some of the P-bearing species in diffuse cloud and hot core regions and estimate the line profiles. Our study estimates the required integration time to observe these transitions with ground-based and space-based telescopes. We also carry out quantum chemical computation of the infrared features of PH{sub 3}, along with various impurities. We notice that SO{sub 2} overlaps with the PH{sub 3} bending-scissoring modes around ∼1000–1100 cm{sup −1}. We also find that the presence of CO{sub 2} can strongly influence the intensity of the stretching modes around ∼2400 cm{sup −1} of PH{sub 3}.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Physics of the Coronal-line Region for Galaxies in Mapping Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory

The fundamental nature and extent of the coronal-line region (CLR), which may serve as a vital tracer for active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity, remain unresolved. Previous studies suggest that the CLR is produced by AGNdriven outflows and occupies a distinct region between the broad-line region and the narrow-line region, which places it tens to hundreds of parsecs from the galactic center. Here, we investigate 10 coronal line (CL; ionization potential ≳100 eV) emitting galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV Mapping Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) catalog with emission from one or more CLs detected at ≥5$σ$ above the continuum in at least 10 spaxels—the largest such MaNGA catalog. We find that the CLR is far more extended, reaching out to 1.3–23 kpc from the galactic center. We crossmatch our sample of 10 CL galaxies with the largest existing MaNGA AGN catalog and identify seven in it; two of the remaining three are galaxy mergers and the final one is an AGN candidate. Further, we measure the average CLR electron temperatures as ranging between 12,331 and 22,530 K, slightly above the typical threshold for pure AGN photoionization (~20,000 K) and indicative of shocks (e.g., merger induced or from supernova remnants) in the CLR. In conclusion, we reason that ionizing photons emitted by the central continuum source (i.e., AGN photoionization) primarily generate the CLs, and that energetic shocks are an additional ionization mechanism that likely produce the most extended CLRs we measure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanisms of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conduct four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three subregions in the climate model. The results indicate distinct responses in circulation patterns and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 132 %) and the intensity (by 30 %) of monthly air stagnation extremes being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi seas). The increased air stagnation extremes are mainly driven by an amplified planetary-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of Arctic origin takes place primarily via the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversions near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and midlatitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hyperspectral remote sensing-based plant community map for region around NGEE-Arctic intensive research watersheds at Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017-2019

Using airborne hyperspectral remote sensing data from NASA Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer- Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) platforms in a region near NGEE-Arctic intensive watersheds at Seward peninsula of Alaska, high resolution (5m) maps of plant community distribution were developed and included in this data collected. AVIRIS-NG data collected over 2017-2019 period were used to develop deep neural networks, trained using vegetation plot observations collected at NGEE-Arctic watersheds at Kougarok, Council and Teller. A hierarchical vegetation classification scheme consisting of six classes at Level I, and 16 classes at Level II contained in two .txt files were used to developed the plant community maps for the region. Two geospatial raster data files (.tif) at both thematic levels are shared in this data collection. Data files in this collection use Alaska Albers Equal Area projection. Readme files available in three formats (*.html, *.md, *.pdf) and one *.png visualization map.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

An Experimental Investigation of the Performance of the Nitrogen Tetroxide-Hydrazine System in the Oxidizer-Rich and Fuel-Rich Regions

The results of an experimental program directed toward determining some of the operational characteristics of the nitrogen tetroxide-hydrazine propellant system under oxidizer-rich and fuel-rich conditions are reported. Data are presented for the mixture-ratio ranges of 0 to 0.55 at a nominal chamber pressure of 300 psia and characteristic chamber length of 250 in., and at mixture ratios of 5.9 to 13.0 at nominal chamber pressures of 400 and 500 psia and characteristic chamber lengths of 100 and 3900 in. The relationship of the actual performance data obtained in each region with those predicted from thermochemical performance calculations is presented. From this comparison, it is concluded that in neither region are equilibrium conditions obtained and that utilization of performance data obtained from assumptions of equilibrium will lead to serious errors. In the oxidizer-rich region investigated, temperatures considerably below those predicted occur throughout the range of mixture ratios investigated because of the lack of exothermic dissociation of the nitrogen oxides. In the fuel-rich region, below a mixture ratio of 0.3, temperatures considerably higher than those predicted occur because of the lack of endothermic dissociation of ammonia.

Chilenski, J. J.↗

Boundedness regions of discrete-time dynamic systems

Techniques for obtaining quantitative information about boundedness properties are developed and applied to the sampled-data control of satellite attitude with quantization. Relevant stability concepts are introduced as a series of definitions, and interrelationships between various definitions are discussed. The boundedness regions are estimated by means of quadratic Liapunov functions, and a sufficient condition for the existence of a boundedness region is given for a certain class of systems. A quadratic Liapunov function is applied to the Lur'e-Postinkov class of systems, where the linear part of the system is not asymptotically stable and the quantizer represents the nonlinear characteristic. A numerical calculation of the region of boundedness estimates is performed for satellite attitude control and is compared with simulation results. It is tentatively concluded that the Liapunov results may be good and that simulation results may be difficult to interpret and time-consuming to generate. The Lur'e-based technique yields estimates of regions of absolute boundedness, but at the cost of greater analytical complexity.

Siljak, D.↗