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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Transport in Stochastic Media with Random Chord Length Distributions

Thermal radiation transport computations in binary Markovian random mixtures rely almost exclusively on the Levermore-Pomraning (LP) model which is obtained by applying a heuristic closure to the ensemble averaged random medium transport equation. The validity of this model has been extensively tested by comparing numerical results over a broad parameter range (material types and mixing parameters) against benchmark solutions in planar geometry. The conditions under which the LP-model provides useful results and when it breaks down are now well established, but work to date has been largely restricted to homogeneous mixing statistics, i.e., the mean chord lengths of both materials are taken to be spatially constant. In recent work, this limitation was relaxed by allowing the mean chord lengths and, in a consistent fashion, the volume fractions in the LP-model to vary spatially and in a follow-up investigation benchmark solutions were obtained by ensemble averaging results over material realizations sampled from a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). Numerical experiments in rod geometry with specifically linear and quadratic spatial dependence of chord lengths showed that the material averaged radiation intensities vary nonmonotonically with depth into the medium, in stark contrast to solutions obtained assuming uniform chord lengths. Moreover, depending on the local optical thickness and strength of scattering, the LP-model results showed locally more nuanced deviations from the benchmark solutions than was the case with constant chord lengths. These limited numerical investigations highlight the nontrivial qualitative and quantitative consequences of nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, in particular that closure approximations may not be uniformly valid or invalid over the problem domain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure and hardness evolution induced by annealing of ion irradiated LiTaO 3

We report the evolution of the microstructure and mechanical properties of low-energy heavy-ion-irradiated LiTaO 3 crystals annealed at various temperatures was investigated by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations and nanoindentation tests to extend the applications of irradiated LiTaO 3 crystals. Before annealing, randomly distributed voids formed in an approximately 200 nm thick region at the end of the ion irradiation range, which was attributed to preferential absorption of interstitials by the amorphous-crystalline interface. After annealing, a new directional diffusion path of defects was identified, resulting in a void string. Furthermore, void string diffusion to the free surface was also found during the annealing temperature increase process, which offers a potential application in designing custom sized-thickness exfoliation at the nanoscale. Meanwhile, two competing processes were identified during the annealing process: epitaxial recrystallization from the amorphous-crystalline interface and grain nucleation process in the amorphous region, which formed phases different from the matrix crystal structure, resulting in an interaction between them. Furthermore, the hardness of irradiated samples was also found to be affected by the annealing process; in particular, a hardness decrease induced by the interstitial Fe ions in the recrystallized region was also confirmed, which can improve the processability of samples for further application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quenched disorder in the triangular lattice antiferromagnet YbZn 2⁢ GaO 5

We investigate the crystal electric field (CEF) excitations of Yb 3+ ions in powder samples of the triangular-lattice rare-earth-based antiferromagnet YbZn 2⁢ GaO 5 using inelastic neutron scattering (INS). Three CEF excitations from the ground-state Kramers doublet were observed, each exhibiting significant broadening beyond instrumental resolution. Combining temperature-dependent INS and neutron powder diffraction, we identify a significant static contribution to this broadening and attribute it to heterogeneous coordination of Yb 3+ ions due to Ga 3+ /Zn 2+ site mixing. Rietveld refinement of neutron powder diffraction indicates that 35% of Ga occupies the Zn site and 60% of Zn occupies the Ga site. We show with a point charge model for the CEF Hamiltonian that heterogeneous coordination of Yb3+ ions leads to broadened CEF peaks. First-principles calculations demonstrate that the random Ga 3+ /Zn 2+ distribution can produce the distortions of the YbO 6 octahedra observed from neutron diffraction. Because the documented heterogeneity will extend to exchange interactions, our results suggest that disorder is a significant factor in the unusual magnetism previously reported in YbZn 2 ⁢GaO 5 , including broad low-energy magnetic excitations and the absence of magnetic ordering down to 0.3 K.

Crystal field excitations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Z-Sequence: photometric redshift predictions for galaxy clusters with sequential random k-nearest neighbours

ABSTRACT We introduce Z-Sequence, a novel empirical model that utilizes photometric measurements of observed galaxies within a specified search radius to estimate the photometric redshift of galaxy clusters. Z-Sequence itself is composed of a machine learning ensemble based on the k-nearest neighbours algorithm. We implement an automated feature selection strategy that iteratively determines appropriate combinations of filters and colours to minimize photometric redshift prediction error. We intend for Z-Sequence to be a standalone technique but it can be combined with cluster finders that do not intrinsically predict redshift, such as our own DEEP-CEE. In this proof-of-concept study, we train, fine-tune, and test Z-Sequence on publicly available cluster catalogues derived from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We determine the photometric redshift prediction error of Z-Sequence via the median value of |Δ$z$|/(1 + $z$) (across a photometric redshift range of 0.05 ≤ $z$ ≤ 0.6) to be ∼0.01 when applying a small search radius. The photometric redshift prediction error for test samples increases by 30–50 per cent when the search radius is enlarged, likely due to line-of-sight interloping galaxies. Eventually, we aim to apply Z-Sequence to upcoming imaging surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time to provide photometric redshift estimates for large samples of as yet undiscovered and distant clusters.

Chan, Matthew C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

3-D Radiological Data Acquisition, Visualization and Modeling - 20211

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) was tasked to investigate and remediate low activity radiological contamination from research and production of the nation's first nuclear weapons at the former DuPont Chambers Works Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site (DuPont). The DuPont site had several buildings used for the Manhattan project that were demolished in the 1940's and 1950's apparently using heavy earthmoving equipment. Some of the contaminated rubble from the demolition appears to have been spread out by this equipment resulting in somewhat random scattering of radiologically contaminated soil and debris along with aqueous spills. Traditional investigative methods such as soil borings, test pits and 2-dimensional gamma walkovers were only partially successful in delineating the radiological contamination at the site. It was feared that even 'chasing' the contamination during remediation would miss contamination if the demolition resulted in discontinuous trails of radiologically contaminated soils. In evaluating the data generated over the interceding decades, the USACE determined that a better method to collect and process the remedial action radiological data was needed to enable the project team to optimize predictive planning and meet documentation expectations. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the effort and progress to combine and organize radiological survey methods into a highly flexible sampling, modeling, and decision analysis approach that emphasizes the quality of decision-making during remediation. This innovative system blends multiple tools to develop a methodology that can extend MARRSIM [1] into the subsurface and provide tools that can be applied to other sites. (authors)

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Genarris 2.0: A Random Structure Generator for Molecular Crystals

Genarris is an open source Python package for generating random molecular crystal structures with physical constraints for seeding crystal structure prediction algorithms and training machine learning models. Here we present a new version of the code, containing several major improvements. A MPI-based parallelization scheme has been implemented, which facilitates the seamless sequential execution of user-defined workflows. A new method for estimating the unit cell volume based on the single molecule structure has been developed using a machine-learned model trained on experimental structures. A new algorithm has been implemented for generating crystal structures with molecules occupying special Wyckoff positions. A new hierarchical structure check procedure has been developed to detect unphysical close contacts efficiently and accurately. New intermolecular distance settings have been implemented for strong hydrogen bonds. To demonstrate these new features, we study two specific cases: benzene and glycine. Genarris finds the experimental structures of the two polymorphs of benzene and the three polymorphs of glycine. Program summary Program Title: Genarris 2.0 Program Files doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/grx6mz4pjn.1 Licensing provisions: BSD-3 Clause Programming language: Python, C External routines/libraries: Spglib, ASE, pymatgen, SciPy, mpi4py, scikit-learn, PyTorch, FHI-aims. Nature of problem: Molecular crystal structure prediction. Solution method: Genarris 2.0 generates molecular crystal structures over the 230 space groups, on general and special Wyckoff positions, using physical constraints. Down-sampling of the generated structures may be performed subsequently, based on molecular crystal packing descriptors and an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Lastly, ab initio structure relaxation may be performed for the final pool. Depending on the user-defined workflow implemented, Genarris may be used to generate diverse molecular crystal datasets to seed evolutionary algorithms or to train machine learning algorithms or as a standalone crystal structure prediction method. Restrictions: For crystal structure generation, the molecule of interest must be semi-rigid with no bond rotational degrees of freedom. Unusual features: Genarris 2.0 is a highly distributed program, making use of MPI for Python parallelization. The user has the ability to design and implement workflows by executing a user-defined list of procedures. Genarris 2.0 offers new features including a machine learning model for estimating the molecular volume in the solid state from the single molecule structure, structure generation in special Wyckoff positions of space groups, hierarchical structure checks including rigorous treatment of non-orthogonal structures, and clustering and down-selection workflows combining first principles simulations with machine learning. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystal structure prediction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular systematics-free cosmological analysis of galaxy clustering in configuration space

ABSTRACT Galaxy redshift surveys are subject to incompleteness and inhomogeneous sampling due to the various constraints inherent to spectroscopic observations. This can introduce systematic errors on the summary statistics of interest, which need to be mitigated in cosmological analysis to achieve high accuracy. Standard practices involve applying weighting schemes based on completeness estimates across the survey footprint, possibly supplemented with additional weighting schemes accounting for density-dependent effects. In this work, we concentrate on pure angular systematics and describe an alternative approach consisting in analysing the galaxy two-point correlation function where angular modes are nulled. By construction, this procedure removes all possible known and unknown sources of angular observational systematics, but also part of the cosmological signal. We use a modified Landy–Szalay estimator for the two-point correlation function that relies on an additional random catalogue where angular positions are randomly drawn from the galaxy catalogue, and provide an analytical model to describe this modified statistic. We test the model by performing an analysis of the full anisotropic clustering in mock catalogues of luminous red and emission-line galaxies at 0.43 < z < 1.1. We find that the model fully accounts for the modified correlation function in redshift space, without introducing new nuisance parameters. The derived cosmological parameters from the analysis of baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions display slightly larger statistical uncertainties, mostly for the growth rate of structure parameter fσ8 that exhibits a $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ statistical error increase, but free from angular systematic error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electron-phonon coupling and superconductivity in the doped topological crystalline insulator ( Pb 0.5 Sn 0.5 ) 1 – x In x Te

Here, we present a neutron-scattering study of phonons in single crystals of ( Pb 0.5 Sn 0.5 ) 1 – x In x Te with x = 0 (metallic, but nonsuperconducting) and x = 0.2 (nonmetallic normal state, but superconducting). We map the phonon dispersions (more completely for x = 0 ) and find general consistency with theoretical calculations, except for the transverse and longitudinal optical (LO) modes at the Brillouin-zone center. At low temperature, both modes are strongly damped but sit at a finite energy ( ≈ 4 meV in both samples), shifting to higher energy at room temperature. These modes are soft due to a proximate structural instability driven by the sensitivity of Pb-Te and Sn-Te p -orbital hybridization to off-center displacements of the metal atoms. The impact of the soft optical modes on the low-energy acoustic modes is inferred from the low thermal conductivity, especially at low temperature. Given that the strongest electron-phonon coupling is predicted for the LO mode, which should be similar for both studied compositions, it is intriguing that only the In-doped crystal is superconducting. In addition, we observe elastic diffuse (Huang) scattering that is qualitatively explained by the difference in Pb-Te and Sn-Te bond lengths within the lattice of randomly distributed Pb and Sn sites. We also confirm the presence of anomalous diffuse low-energy atomic vibrations that we speculatively attribute to local fluctuations of individual Pb atoms between off-center sites.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferring transmission heterogeneity using virus genealogies: estimation and targeted prevention

Spread of HIV typically involves uneven transmission patterns where some individuals spread to a large number of individuals while others to only a few or none. Such transmission heterogeneity can impact how fast and how much an epidemic spreads. Further, more efficient interventions may be achieved by taking such transmission heterogeneity into account. To address these issues, we developed two phylogenetic methods based on virus sequence data: 1) to generally detect if significant transmission heterogeneity is present, and 2) to pinpoint where in a phylogeny high-level spread is occurring. We derive inference procedures to estimate model parameters, including the amount of transmission heterogeneity, in a sampled epidemic. We show that it is possible to detect transmission heterogeneity under a wide range of simulated situations, including incomplete sampling, varying levels of heterogeneity, and including within-host genetic diversity. When evaluating real HIV-1 data from different epidemic scenarios, we found a lower level of transmission heterogeneity in slowly spreading situations and a higher level of heterogeneity in data that included a rapid outbreak, while R0 and Sackin’s index (overall tree shape statistic) were similar in the two scenarios, suggesting that our new method is able to detect transmission heterogeneity in real data. We then show by simulations that targeted prevention, where we pinpoint high-level spread using a coalescence measurement, is efficient when sequence data are collected in an ongoing surveillance system. Such phylogeny-guided prevention is efficient under both single-step contact tracing as well as iterative contact tracing as compared to random intervention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic average model methods

We consider the solution of finite-sum minimization problems, such as those appearing in nonlinear least-squares or general empirical risk minimization problems. We are motivated by problems in which the summand functions are computationally expensive and evaluating all summands on every iteration of an optimization method may be undesirable. Here we present the idea of stochastic average model (SAM) methods, inspired by stochastic average gradient methods. SAM methods sample component functions on each iteration of a trust-region method according to a discrete probability distribution on component functions; the distribution is designed to minimize an upper bound on the variance of the resulting stochastic model. We present promising numerical results concerning an implemented variant extending the derivative-free model-based trust-region solver POUNDERS, which we name SAM-POUNDERS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating sticky particles: A Monte Carlo method to sample a stratification

Many problems in materials science and biology involve particles interacting with strong, short-ranged bonds that can break and form on experimental timescales. Treating such bonds as constraints can significantly speed up sampling their equilibrium distribution, and there are several methods to sample probability distributions subject to fixed constraints. We introduce a Monte Carlo method to handle the case when constraints can break and form. More generally, the method samples a probability distribution on a stratification: a collection of manifolds of different dimensions, where the lower-dimensional manifolds lie on the boundaries of the higher-dimensional manifolds. We show several applications of the method in polymer physics, self-assembly of colloids, and volume calculation in high dimensions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the discovery of stars, quasars, and galaxies in the Southern Hemisphere with S-PLUS DR2

ABSTRACT This paper provides a catalogue of stars, quasars, and galaxies for the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey Data Release 2 (S-PLUS DR2) in the Stripe 82 region. We show that a 12-band filter system (5 Sloan-like and 7 narrow bands) allows better performance for object classification than the usual analysis based solely on broad bands (regardless of infrared information). Moreover, we show that our classification is robust against missing values. Using spectroscopically confirmed sources retrieved from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR16 and DR14Q, we train a random forest classifier with the 12 S-PLUS magnitudes + 4 morphological features. A second random forest classifier is trained with the addition of the W1 (3.4 $\mu\mathrm{m} $) and W2 (4.6 $\mu\mathrm{m} $) magnitudes from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Forty-four per cent of our catalogue have WISE counterparts and are provided with classification from both models. We achieve 95.76 per cent (52.47 per cent) of quasar purity, 95.88 per cent (92.24 per cent) of quasar completeness, 99.44 per cent (98.17 per cent) of star purity, 98.22 per cent (78.56 per cent) of star completeness, 98.04 per cent (81.39 per cent) of galaxy purity, and 98.8 per cent (85.37 per cent) of galaxy completeness for the first (second) classifier, for which the metrics were calculated on objects with (without) WISE counterpart. A total of 2926 787 objects that are not in our spectroscopic sample were labelled, obtaining 335 956 quasars, 1347 340 stars, and 1243 391 galaxies. From those, 7.4 per cent, 76.0 per cent, and 58.4 per cent were classified with probabilities above 80 per cent. The catalogue with classification and probabilities for Stripe 82 S-PLUS DR2 is available for download.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid spatial analysis of surrogate TRISO fuel particles using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy image analysis

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) mapping enables rapid elemental and spatial analysis of solid samples. In this work, surrogate TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) particles with various layers consisting of Zr, W, C, and Si were used to demonstrate the use of a new thickness measurement tool developed to analyze elemental images generated from LIBS maps. Zr particles with varying outer-layer thicknesses ranging from 16 to 32 μm were measured with scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and LIBS with both a complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) detector and an intensified charged coupled device (ICCD) detector. LIBS maps of particles were completed using CMOS and ICCD spectrometers with effective spatial resolutions of 4 and 2 μm, respectively. The novel thickness measurement tool identified layer regions within a LIBS map and then identified the locations of the boundaries between these layers. The tool then generated up to 1000 random profiles stemming radially from the center region, which were used to measure the layer thickness/radius. This image analysis tool demonstrated LIBS's ability to provide values comparable with SEM-EDS (3.7% relative difference) along with a 95% reduction in measurement time. Furthermore, the precision of these measurements was on par with the SEM-EDS measurements at <15% relative standard deviation. Following the analysis of the Zr particles, W particles with increased complexity (e.g., five versus three layers) were analyzed using both the CMOS and ICCD spectrometers simultaneously. The spatial dimensions were extracted with an average relative difference of 2.7% and an average relative standard deviation of 9%.

Andrews, Hunter B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beating the Auditors: Comparing Doping in Sport to Nuclear Proliferators

The Berlinger Bottle (Figure 1, below) is the central part of the BEREG-Kit that has been used by anti-doping agencies worldwide for over 25 years. As documented in the World Anti-Doping Agency’s investigative report [Ref 1], in 2014, Russian state-level actors found ways to defeat these bottles and was able to secretly replace an athlete’s drug-laced urine with clean urine samples that had been collected earlier. This cheating scheme allowed rampant performance enhancing drug use by its athletes, and (before disqualifications) earned Russia 33 medals in the 2014 Sochi Olympics – more than double its haul of 15 medals at the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. All this activity was conducted despite the watchful eye of the World Anti-Doping Agency. Similarly, Lance Armstrong and the US Postal Team infamously used performance enhancing drugs and blood transfusions to win 7 Tour de France titles (again, before disqualification) in a row, all under the supervision of L’Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) and the US Anti Doping Agency. The inspection role of anti-doping agencies is similar in scope to the role of a Safeguards Inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency: detect the misuse of facilities, and conduct scheduled and randomized testing to detect and deter would-be cheaters. This paper will explore the motivation, the means, and the mistakes which led to discovery – and will draw out commonalities between those who seek to cheat in sports, and those who seek to undermine international nuclear safeguards as Iraq tried in the 1980s.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classical combinatorial optimization scaling for random Ising models on 2D heavy-hex graphs

Motivated by near term quantum computing hardware limitations, combinatorial optimization problems that can be addressed by current quantum algorithms and noisy hardware with little or no overhead are used to probe capabilities of quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm. In this study, a specific class of near term quantum computing hardware defined combinatorial optimization problems, Ising models on heavy-hex graphs both with and without geometrically local cubic terms, are examined for their classical computational hardness via empirical computation time scaling quantification. Specifically the time-to-solution (TTS) metric using the classical heuristic simulated annealing is measured for finding optimal variable assignments (ground states), as well as the time required for the optimization software Gurobi to find an optimal variable assignment. Because of the sparsity of these Ising models, the classical algorithms are able to find optimal solutions efficiently even for large instances (i.e. 100 000 spin variables). The Ising models both with and without geometrically local cubic terms exhibit average-case linear-time or weakly quadratic scaling when solved exactly using Gurobi, and the Ising models with no cubic terms show evidence of exponential-time TTS scaling when sampled using simulated annealing. These findings point to the necessity of developing and testing more complex, namely more densely connected, optimization problems in order for quantum computing to ever have a practical advantage over classical computing. Our results are another illustration that different classical algorithms can indeed have exponentially different running times, thus making the identification of the best practical classical technique important in any quantum computing vs. classical computing comparison.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗