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At least 775 records · Page 43

Fast Computational Algorithms for Partial Differential Equations and Uncertainty Quantifications

This project concerned the construction, testing and analysis of computational algorithms for solving parameterized and stochastic partial differential equations. The study and understanding of equations of this type is of fundamental importance in numerous engineering and scientific applications. Examples include simulation of plasma dynamics in models of electric propulsion and nuclear fusion, simulation of multiphase flows, such as the flow of water, gas and oil in reservoirs, and structural analysis of the dependence of structures on materials. Parametrization is used in such settings when properties of the models such as viscosity of fluids or electric resistivity of materials are not precisely understood and instead are treated as random variables. The resulting solutions are themselves random, and having such solutions will enable engineers to use probabilistic methods to assess the likelihood of events, for example, whether a pollutant in a liquid will exceed a limit, and to use such analyses to develop ways to ensure positive outcomes. Construction of accurate (high resolution) computational solutions is expensive, requiring significant computer time and computational resources, and there is need to reduce computational cost to make simulation useful and effective. The aim of the project was to construct algorithms to efficiently compute surrogate solutions to parameterized problems to allow for efficient and accurate simulation. The technical approach used focused on two related strategies, based on rank-reduction methods and reduced-order models. These methods construct surrogate solutions of parameter-dependent models by projection or interpolation into low-dimensional approximation spaces. Cost savings are achieved if the low-dimensional spaces can be identified and constructed efficiently and if the resulting low-dimensional algebraic systems can be solved cheaply. Accomplishments include: Theoretical and empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of fast multigrid solution strategies for computing low-rank representations of parameter-dependent solutions to discrete partial differential equations, including the first proof establishing so-called textbook convergence properties for low-rank methods. Development of efficient solution algorithms for solving nonlinear parameter-dependent partial differential equations used in models of fluid dynamics. Developent of efficient algorithms for low-rank representation of solutions of time-dependent simulations of fluid dynamics using multi-dimensional tensor representations of solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of a High-Energy Neutron Sniffer and Subsequent Dose Quantification for High-Energy Particle Accelerator Shielding Surveys

The objective of this research is to design a portable neutron detector that is lightweight and responds to neutrons with energies of 20 MeV and greater. The instrument will be used as a ‘sniffer’ probe for identifying shielding weaknesses at high-energy particle accelerators and be paired with a plastic scintillator to quantify the high-energy neutron dose equivalent. The sniffer probes are two different sizes and comprised of either cesium iodide or sodium iodide, all doped with thallium, making a total of four detectors. The probes were calibrated to respond only to radiations with 8 MeV electron equivalent energy or higher, vastly reducing detector response from background and lower energy radiations. The sniffer probes were tested using californium- 252 and americium-beryllium sources, followed by high-energy (up to 800 MeV) neutron exposures at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Weapons Neutron Research (WNR) facility. The sniffer probes were then used to identify areas around the accelerator facility where elevated levels of high-energy radiation was present and the plastic scintillators were placed in these locations to determine the high-energy neutron dose equivalent. The dose equivalent is calculated by measuring the 12 C(n,2n) 11 C reaction, which has a 20.4 MeV neutron threshold. Two locations behind the WNR facility were identified with the probes and the dose equivalent rates from neutron energies above 20 MeV were calculated to be 1.24 mrem/h behind flightpath 30-left and 1.53 behind flightpath 30-right. Of the four sniffer probes, the 2-inch x 2-inch cesium iodide is the recommended probe for performing high-energy shielding surveys. The larger crystal size yields higher sensitivity at lower count rates and the more dense material increases the likelihood of interaction within the crystal.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Robust data-driven uncertainty quantification in water cycle extreme predictions

Climate experts apply global climate models to predict the future climate, informing decisions and adaptations. Uncertainty plays a fundamental role in this process (particularly for the water cycle simulation, the most relevant but least well-simulated). For many aspects of the water cycle there are disagreements for future climate projections, reflecting the significant uncertainty in model formulation. Also, the chaotic nature of climate dynamics, as well as indeterministic future projection emission scenarios, contribute to the uncertainty in climate predictions. New AI methods that are beginning to be adopted by the climate community have the power to improve predictions of water cycle extremes. The crucial question is how to capture all sources of uncertainty in a systematic way in order for the predictions from the AI models to be maximally leveraged by decision makers

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models

This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains

In order to accurately compare the costs of two vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) should consist of all costs related to both purchasing and operating the vehicle. This TCO analysis builds on previous work to provide a comprehensive perspective of all relevant vehicle costs of ownership. In this report, we present what we believe to be the most comprehensive explicit financial analysis of the costs that will be incurred by a vehicle owner. This study considers vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs to formulate a holistic total cost of ownership and operation of multiple different vehicles. For each of these cost parameters that together constitute a comprehensive TCO, extensive literature review and data analysis were performed to find representative values in order to build a holistic TCO for vehicles of all size classes. The light- and heavy-duty vehicles selected for analysis in this report are representative of those that are on the road today and expected to be available in the future. Important additive analyses in this study include systematic analysis of vehicle depreciation, in-depth examination of insurance premium costs, comprehensive maintenance and repair estimates, analysis of all relevant taxes and fees, and considerations of specific costs applicable to commercial vehicles. We find that cars depreciate faster than light trucks and that older plug-in electric vehicles have a greater depreciation rate than newer electric vehicles. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) insurance costs show comparable costs for different powertrains, and lower costs for larger size classes. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) insurance costs vary significantly by vocation. Electric and electrified powertrains have lower maintenance and repair costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains for all vehicle sizes, relative to vehicle price. MHDV maintenance and repair costs depend heavily on vocation and duty cycle. LDV taxes and fees are comparable across powertrain types and size classes, though marginally higher registration fees exist for alternative fuel vehicles. MHDV fees depend on the vocation, weight rating, and state. Many electric tractor trailers would be affected by additional battery weight, reducing the available payload capacity, and this cost can be substantial. Electric vehicle charging for commercial vehicles can be time-consuming; labor rates can cause this cost to dominate TCO. With improved knowledge of each of the cost components, we calculate a lifetime TCO for comparison across vehicles of different types and attributes. For a simulated small sport utility vehicle in 2025, modeled using Autonomie, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has the lowest cost, followed by the conventional ICE vehicle. For MHDV, TCO can be drastically different depending on the vocation. Long-haul vehicles typically have the lowest per-mile costs. Excluding labor costs, the class 4 delivery has a comparable TCO to the day cab. Vocational trucks, refuse trucks, and transit buses have a high per-mile cost of ownership due to maintenance and insurance. For all of these vehicles, the cost of operating the vehicle is heavily weighted by the labor of the driver, followed by the fuel costs. While the HEV begins as the lowest cost powertrain for passenger vehicles, fuel cells are forecast to reach cost parity by 2030 when hydrogen prices reach $\$ 5$/kg while battery electric vehicles (BEV) reach cost parity by 2035 at a battery cost of $\$ 98$ per usable kWh of capacity, with these two technologies being the lowest cost in 2050. For the class 8 day cab tractor, the HEV and ICE vehicle begin as the lowest cost powertrains, and the 250-mile BEV reduces in cost from the most expensive to the least expensive by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimized Microwave Digestion and Quantification Procedure for Boron Carbide samples

A microwave-assisted HNO3-H2SO4-HF digestion system was explored/optimized for the total dissolution of Boron Carbide samples followed by multi-elemental determination using ICP-MS and ICP OES, in order to improve the methods used in a previous try using a microwave-assisted H2O2-HNO3-HF digestion system. The samples were microwave digested to accomplish complete dissolution needed to perform quantitative analysis of their metal content. Two Boron Carbide samples were provided to us: JM10 and JM11. The Boron Carbide samples were completely dissolved at the end of the optimized microwave digestion procedure that was developed. The digested samples were analyzed for metals mostly by ICP MS; few elements were analyzed by ICP-OES. Microwave digestion reactions were performed in a Titan MPS instrument (Perkin Elmer, USA). Titan MPS instrument is equipped with Temperature and Pressure regulations and controlled by software. Each microwave digestion batch contained the samples of interest along with a reagent blank and one certified standard (1632e) in order to (i) compensate for the contaminations present in the reagents, (ii) ensure that the digestion was complete and (iii) that there was a good recovery of all the constituents. The certified standard used (1632e) was provided with USGS certificates of analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty Quantification in High Explosives Equations of State [Slides]

In order to fit models to data, we need a way to simulate the data given a model. Our projects involved simulators for the Manganin gauge experiment and for cylinder tests, which we use to calibrate models to experiments. We call the parameters we seek to optimize the degrees of freedom (DOF). We use a Bayesian approach with its associated UQ benefits.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Nonlocal Operator Learning with Uncertainty Quantification

The goal of this work is to develop a Bayesian framework to characterize the uncertainty of material response when using a nonlocal, homogenized model to describe wave propagation through heterogeneous, disordered materials. Our approach is based on an operator regression technique combined with Bayesian optimization, through which the nonlocal kernel for a specific disordered microstructure is investigated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗