Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probability of failure”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Model 0A wind turbine generator FMEA

The results of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) conducted for the Wind Turbine Generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems which are also reflected in this FMEA.

Klein, William E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Model-OA wind turbine generator - Failure modes and effects analysis

The results failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) conducted for wind-turbine generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems, which are also reflected in this FMEA.

Klein, William E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

PISCES: A Tool for Predicting Software Testability

Before a program can fail, a software fault must be executed, that execution must alter the data state, and the incorrect data state must propagate to a state that results directly in an incorrect output. This paper describes a tool called PISCES (developed by Reliable Software Technologies Corporation) for predicting the probability that faults in a particular program location will accomplish all three of these steps causing program failure. PISCES is a tool that is used during software verification and validation to predict a program's testability.

Voas, Jeffrey M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics for Physics-Informed Learning

Advances in machine learning and deep neural networks has enabled complex engineering tasks like image recognition, anomaly detection, regression, and multi-objective optimization, to name but a few. The complexity of the algorithm architecture, e.g., the number of hidden layers in a deep neural network, typically grows with the complexity of the problems they are required to solve, leaving little room for interpreting (or explaining) the path that results in a specific solution. This drawback is particularly relevant for autonomous aerospace and aviation systems, where certifications require a complete understanding of the algorithm behavior in all possible scenarios. Including physics knowledge in such data-driven tools may improve the interpretability of the algorithms, thus enhancing model validation against events with low probability but relevant for system certification. Such events include, for example, spacecraft or aircraft sub-system failures, for which data may not be available in the training phase. This paper investigates a recent physics-informed learning algorithm for identification of system dynamics, and shows how the governing equations of a system can be extracted from data using sparse regression. The learned relationships can be utilized as a surrogate model which, unlike typical data-driven surrogate models, relies on the learned underlying dynamics of the system rather than large number of fitting parameters. The work shows that the algorithm can reconstruct the differential equations underlying the observed dynamics using a single trajectory when no uncertainty is involved. However, the training set size must increase when dealing with stochastic systems, e.g., nonlinear dynamics with random initial conditions.

Corbetta, Matteo↗
NASA NTRS1988

Analysis of the Space Shuttle Orbiter skin panels under simulated hydrodynamic loads

The Space Shuttle orbiter skin panels were analyzed under pressure loads simulating hydrodynamic loads to determine their capability to sustain a potential ditching and to determine pressures that typically would produce failures. Two Dynamic Crash Analysis of Structures (DYCAST) finite element models were used. One model was used to represent skin panels (bays) in the center body, while a second model was used to analyze a fuselage bay in the wing region of the orbiter. From an assessment of the DYCAST nonlinear computer results, it is concluded that the probability is extremely high that most, if not all, of the lower skin panels would rupture under ditching conditions. Extremely high pressure loads which are produced under hydrodynamic planning conditions far exceed the very low predicted failure pressures for the skin panels. Consequently, a ditching of the orbiter is not considered to have a high probability of success and should not be considered a means of emergency landing unless no other option exists.

Carden, Huey D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1986

On the decode error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

Upper bounds on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes are derived. By definition, decoder error occurs when the decoder finds a codeword other than the transmitted codeword; this is in contrast to decoder failure, which occurs when the decoder fails to find any codeword at all. The results imply, for example, that for a t error correcting Reed-Solomon code of length q - 1 over GF(q), if more than t errors occur, the probability of decoder error is less than 1/t! In particular, for the Voyager Reed-Solomon code, the probability of decoder error given a word error is smaller than 3 x 10 to the minus 14th power. Thus, in a typical operating region with probability 100,000 of word error, the probability of undetected word error is about 10 to the minus 14th power.

Mceliece, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

On the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

Upper bounds on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes are derived. By definition, decoder error occurs when the decoder finds a codeword other than the transmitted codeword; this is in contrast to decoder failure, which occurs when the decoder fails to find any codeword at all. The results imply, for example, that for a t error-correcting Reed-Solomon code of length q - 1 over GF(q), if more than t errors occur, the probability of decoder error is less than 1/t. In particular, for the Voyager Reed-Solomon code, the probability of decoder error given a word error is smaller than 3 x 10 to the minus 14th power. Thus, in a typical operating region with probability 100,000 of word error, the probability of undetected word error is about 10 to the minus 14th power.

Mceliece, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Nondestructive Evaluation Capabilities at NASA MSFC

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods examine material integrity without impairing its usefulness. The NDE team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama is responsible for applying existing methods to new hardware designs and material systems, probability of detection studies to quantify detection capabilities, overseeing NDE requirements for flight hardware, inspecting development articles and flight hardware, engineering support for failure investigations, and investigating emerging NDE methods. NASA MSFC has been on the cutting edge of developing new NDE techniques, first for the space shuttle, then for composite structures, and most recently for additive manufacturing (AM). Standard in-house inspection capabilities include eddy current, magnetic particle, liquid penetrant, ultrasonic, and radiographic testing (including computed tomography). Other advanced inspection capabilities include infrared flash thermography, shearography, acoustic emission, and microwave/millimeter wave testing. Some recent research studies include AM probability of detection testing, investigating in-situ process monitoring methods for AM, and correlating the NDE response of true fatigue cracks with artificial notches.

nondestructive evaluation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Ion Propulsion System on NASA's Space Technology 4/Champollion Comet Rendezvous Mission

The ST4/Champollion mission is designed to rendezvous with and land on the comet Tempel 1 and return data from the first-ever sampling of a comet surface. Ion propulsion is an enabling technology for this mission. The ion propulsion system on ST4 consists of three ion engines each essentially identical to the single engine that flew on the DS1 spacecraft. The ST4 propulsion system will operate at a maximum input power of 7.5 kW (3.4 times greater than that demonstrated on DS1), will produce a maximum thrust of 276 mN, and will provide a total (Delta)V of 11.4 km/s. To accomplish this the propulsion system will carry 385 kg of xenon. All three engines will be operated simultaneously for the first 168 days of the mission. The nominal mission requires that each engine be capable of processing 118 kg. If one engine fails after 168 days, the remaining two engines can perform the mission, but must be capable of processing 160 kg of xenon, or twice the original thruster design requirement. Detailed analyses of the thruster wear-out failure modes coupled with experience from long-duration engine tests indicate that the thrusters have a high probability of meeting the 160-kg throughput requirement.

Brophy, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Failure Propagation Modeling Method for Launch Vehicle Safety Assessment

A method has been developed with the objective of making the potentially intractable problem of launch vehicle failure propagation somewhat less intractable. The approach taken is to essentially decouple the potentially multi-stepped propagation process into a series of bi-component transition probabilities. These probabilities are then used within a simple Monte Carlo simulation process through which the more complex behavior evolves. The process is described using a simple model problem and some discussion of enhancements for real-world applications is included. The role of the model within a broader analysis process for assessing abort effectiveness from launch vehicle failure modes is also described.

Lawrence, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Melis, Matthew E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the findings and recommendations from the NESC assessment.

Piascik, Robert S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of internal and external surface finishing technologies for additively manufactured metallic alloys components and new frontiers

Surface finishing in additive manufacturing (AM) is a technological bottleneck. The field of surface finishing of AM parts is vast because it not only focuses on roughness reduction in the hard-to-access internal surfaces but also includes the scope of adding coatings and sensors. Even though metal AM component is reaching the density and bulk microstructure at par or even better than conventionally produced components, adverse impact of surface roughness and imperfections is becoming the major obstruction. It is observed that external and internal surface roughness of AM components is a high probability cause of many unavoidable issues such as corrosion, incorrect tolerance estimations during the build stage, and the fatigue failure of parts before the expected life cycle. At present, AM field mainly focuses on improving and enhancing the internal and external surface roughness to pass the stringent qualification requirements for actual applications. To address these challenges, researchers worldwide are conducting many experiments and developing different surface finishing techniques. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art knowledge and processes of different surface finishing technology that can be applied to AM metal components. This article mainly highlights several liquid-based surfaces finishing approaches to develop promising surface microstructures on interior and exterior surfaces as a micromachining tool. The future of making strong and self-monitoring AM component requires broadening of surface finishing field and including advanced topics such as coatings and adding sensor technology. We also discuss new frontiers and the scope of future work in the surface finishing field to bring attention to related concerns and possibilities associated with making smart and strong AM components for twenty-first-century integrated engineering systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1980

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

ASCA measurements of the grain-scattered X-ray halos of eclipsing massive X-ray binaries: Vela X-1 and Centaurus X-3

We have measured the decaying dust-scattered X-ray halo of Cen X-3 during its binary eclipse with the ASCA solid-state imaging spectrometer (SIS). The surface brightness profile (SBP) of the image in the low-energy band (0.5-3 keV) lies substantially above the point-spread function (PSF) of the X-ray telescope, while the SBP in the high-energy band (5-10 keV) exhibits no significant deviation. By contrast, the SBPs of Vela X-1 during its eclipse are consistent with the PSF in both the low- and high-energy bands -- strong evidence that a dust halo is indeed present in Cen X-3. Accordingly, we modeled the SBP of Cen X-3 taken from six consecutive time segments under the principal assumptions that the dust is distributed uniformly along a segment of the line of sight, the grains have a power-law size distribution, and the low-energy source flux was the same function of orbital phase before as during our observation. The best-fit set of parameters included a grain density value of 1.3 g/cu cm, substanially less than the density of 'astronomical silicate.' This result supports the idea that interstellar grains are 'fluffy' aggregates of smaller solid particles. We attribute the failure to detect a halo of Vela X-1 during its eclipse phase to extended strong circumsource absorption that probably occurred before the eclipse and allowed the halo to decay away before the observation began.

Woo, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Passive Stability on an Entry Vehicle to Enhance Crew Survival

The most desirable crew survival feature for an entry vehicle is probably a full coverage escape system. With full coverage escape, crew survival is maintained for a wide range of failures by the allowing the crew to escape from the failed vehicle and performing the entry to touchdown flight phase in an alternative system. However, there are considerable challenges in providing a separate entry capability, and for some programs, requiring full coverage escape could result in program cancellation. An alternative means of providing for crew survival if the flight control system fails is to design a return vehicle that can enter without active attitude control. A study was performed to assess the feasibility of performing a totally passive entry. Lift over drag has a major impact on performing a passive entry, so a parametric of three typical lift over drag concepts was performed. First an assessment of historical entry vehicles was completed. Second an assessment of end of mission entry trajectories and entry trajectories initiated from ascent abort profiles were made. Trajectories for a wide array of pitch, yaw, and roll rates were made. Third, six-degree-of freedom analyses of the entry were performed. FOP a truly passive return, the entry vehicle must trim in only the heat shield forward orientation. An assessment of the effect of center of gravity placement to achieve this orientation was made.

Deger, Daniel J.↗