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NASA NTRS1986

Probabilistic versus fuzzy reasoning

This paper shows how to solve problems using probability theory that the fuzzy approaches claim probability cannot solve. By using the view that probabilities are a measure of belief in a proposition in a particular context, limitations imposed by the frequncy interpretations of probability are avoided. The various fuzzy approaches (fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, possibility theory and higher order generalizations) seem to fill the gap caused by the restricted frequency interpretation. Close examination shows that the fuzzy approaches have exactly the same representation as the corresponding probabilistc approach and include similar calculi. The probabilistic approach assumes less information when the calculi differ.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

NASA NTRS1988

Advanced probabilistic methods for quantifying the effects of various uncertainties in structural response

The effects of actual variations, also called uncertainties, in geometry and material properties on the structural response of a space shuttle main engine turbopump blade are evaluated. A normal distribution was assumed to represent the uncertainties statistically. Uncertainties were assumed to be totally random, partially correlated, and fully correlated. The magnitude of these uncertainties were represented in terms of mean and variance. Blade responses, recorded in terms of displacements, natural frequencies, and maximum stress, was evaluated and plotted in the form of probabilistic distributions under combined uncertainties. These distributions provide an estimate of the range of magnitudes of the response and probability of occurrence of a given response. Most importantly, these distributions provide the information needed to estimate quantitatively the risk in a structural design.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Efficient probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis

A systematic and efficient method for probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is proposed. The method is based on a most-probable-point-locus concept. The locus is obtained iteratively where the initial locus is determined using the linear approximation of the service life N(X) function about the mean values of the random variables X. Linear and quadratic approximations of N(X) are established locally at the most probable points, and the reliability analysis methods are used to compute the cumulative probabilities. By using two examples, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient and accurate. One example involved a random loading and N(X) was computed using cycle-by-cycle integration. The method is general and can be applied to other performance functions. It is particularly suitable when the computation of the performance function is time consuming such that Monte Carlo simulation is prohibitively costly.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Validation of the NESSUS probabilistic finite element analysis computer program

A computer program, NESSUS, is being developed as part of a NASA-sponsored project to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods for propulsion system components. This paper describes the process of validating the NESSUS code, as it has been developed to date, and presents numerical results comparing NESSUS and exact solutions for a set of selected problems.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic composite micromechanics

Probabilistic composite micromechanics methods are developed that simulate expected uncertainties in unidirectional fiber composite properties. These methods are in the form of computational procedures using Monte Carlo simulation. A graphite/epoxy unidirectional composite (ply) is studied to demonstrate fiber composite material properties at the micro level. Regression results are presented to show the relative correlation between predicted and response variables in the study.

Stock, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A probabilistic approach to composite micromechanics

Stock, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Fatigue crack growth model RANDOM2 user manual. Appendix 1: Development of advanced methodologies for probabilistic constitutive relationships of material strength models

FORTRAN program RANDOM2 is presented in the form of a user's manual. RANDOM2 is based on fracture mechanics using a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model. It predicts the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given crack size. Details of the theoretical background, input data instructions, and a sample problem illustrating the use of the program are included.

Boyce, Lola↗

NASA NTRS1989

Fatigue strength reduction model: RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 user manual. Appendix 2: Development of advanced methodologies for probabilistic constitutive relationships of material strength models

FORTRAN programs RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 are documented in the form of a user's manual. Both programs are based on fatigue strength reduction, using a probabilistic constitutive model. The programs predict the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given fatigue strength. The theoretical backgrounds, input data instructions, and sample problems illustrating the use of the programs are included.

Boyce, Lola↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

Cruse, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An approach to probabilistic finite element analysis using a mixed-iterative formulation

An efficient algorithm for computing the response sensitivity of finite element problems based on a mixed-iterative formulation is proposed. This method does not involve explicit differentiation of the tangent stiffness array and can be used with formulations for which a consistent tangent stiffness is not readily available. The method has been successfully applied to probabilistic finite element analysis of problems using the proposed mixed formulation, and this exercise has provided valuable insights regarding the extension of the method to a more general class of problems to include material and geometric nonlinearities.

Dias, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A probabilistic formulation for fracture energy of continuous fibre-matrix composites

Since the fracture energy is a key design variable in brittle-matrix composites, the calculation of the energy and its probabilistic distribution becomes a prominent issue. A demonstration is presented of the way in which the statistical moments of the fracture-energy random variable may be directly calculated. The case considered is that in which continuous fibers possess periodic points of weakness along their length; the shear strength at the interface caused by the reentry of the fibers into the matrix will produce fiber-debonding.

Wetherhold, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic modeling of solar power systems

The author presents a probabilistic approach based on Markov chain theory to model stand-alone photovoltaic power systems and predict their long-term service performance. The major advantage of this approach is that it allows designers and developers of these systems to analyze the system performance as well as the battery subsystem performance in the long run and determine the system design requirements that meet a specified service performance level. The methodology presented is illustrated by using data for a radio repeater system for the Boston, Massachusetts, location.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in composite uniaxial strengths

Probabilistic composite micromechanics methods are developed that simulate uncertainties in unidirectional fiber composite strengths. These methods are in the form of computational procedures using composite mechanics with Monte Carlo simulation. The variables for which uncertainties are accounted include constituent strengths and their respective scatter. A graphite/epoxy unidirectional composite (ply) is studied to illustrate the procedure and its effectiveness to formally estimate the probable scatter in the composite uniaxial strengths. The results show that ply longitudinal tensile and compressive, transverse compressive and intralaminar shear strengths are not sensitive to single fiber anomalies (breaks, intergacial disbonds, matrix microcracks); however, the ply transverse tensile strength is.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of bladed turbine disks and the effect of mistuning

Probabilistic assessment of the maximum blade response on a mistuned rotor disk is performed using the computer code NESSUS. The uncertainties in natural frequency, excitation frequency, amplitude of excitation and damping are included to obtain the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of blade responses. Advanced mean value first order analysis is used to compute CDF. The sensitivities of different random variables are identified. Effect of the number of blades on a rotor on mistuning is evaluated. It is shown that the uncertainties associated with the forcing function parameters have significant effect on the response distribution of the bladed rotor.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Review of probabilistic analysis of dynamic response of systems with random parameters

The various methods that have been studied in the past to allow probabilistic analysis of dynamic response for systems with random parameters are reviewed. Dynamic response may have been obtained deterministically if the variations about the nominal values were small; however, for space structures which require precise pointing, the variations about the nominal values of the structural details and of the environmental conditions are too large to be considered as negligible. These uncertainties are accounted for in terms of probability distributions about their nominal values. The quantities of concern for describing the response of the structure includes displacements, velocities, and the distributions of natural frequencies. The exact statistical characterization of the response would yield joint probability distributions for the response variables. Since the random quantities will appear as coefficients, determining the exact distributions will be difficult at best. Thus, certain approximations will have to be made. A number of techniques that are available are discussed, even in the nonlinear case. The methods that are described were: (1) Liouville's equation; (2) perturbation methods; (3) mean square approximate systems; and (4) nonlinear systems with approximation by linear systems.

Kozin, F.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic model for fracture mechanics service life analysis

The service longevity of complex propulsion systems, such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), can be at risk from several competing failure modes. Conventional life assessment practice focuses upon the most severely life-limited feature of a given component, even though there may be other, less severe, potential failure locations. Primary, secondary, tertiary failure modes, as well as their associated probabilities, must also be considered. Futhermore, these probabilities are functions of accumulated service time. Thus a component may not always succumb to the most severe, or even the most probable failure mode. Propulsion system longevity must be assessed by considering simultaneously the actions of, and interactions among, life-limiting influences. These include, but are not limited to, high frequency fatigue (HFF), low cycle fatigue (LCF), and subsequent crack propagation, thermal and acoustic loadings, and the influence of less-than-ideal nondestructive evaluation (NDE). An outline is provided for a probabilistic model for service life analysis, and the progress towards its implementation is reported.

Annis, Charles↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic methods for robot motion determination

The outline of a research effort in probabilistic approaches to robot motion determination is presented. A heuristic path planner that has met with considerable success in the JPL telerobot testbed is presented together with an interpretation of its performance. The relevance of techniques from stochastic geometry and stochastic diffusion is addressed, as is the possibility of using sensor data directly in the motion determination process.

Balaram, J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A fractal approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The definition of a fractal distribution is that the number of objects (events) N with a characteristic size greater than r satisfies the relation N proportional to r exp - D is the fractal dimension. The applicability of a fractal relation implies that the underlying physical process is scale-invariant over the range of applicability of the relation. The empirical frequency-magnitude relation for earthquakes defining a b-value is a fractal relation with D = 2b. Accepting the fractal distribution, the level of regional seismicity can be related to the rate of regional strain and the magnitude of the largest characteristic earthquake. High levels of seismic activity indicate either a large regional strain or a low-magnitude maximum characteristic earthquake (or both). If the regional seismicity has a weak time dependence, the approach can be used to make probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

Turcotte, D. L.↗