Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43

Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

Several methods for the prediction of jet noise are described. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy, whereas the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all of the approaches, some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation using a kappa-sigma turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach, but instead is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. In conclusion, a proposal is presented for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms, as is a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

Morris, Philip J.↗

Challenges in Rotorcraft Acoustic Flight Prediction and Validation

Challenges associated with rotorcraft acoustic flight prediction and validation are examined. First, an outline of a state-of-the-art rotorcraft aeroacoustic prediction methodology is presented. Components including rotorcraft aeromechanics, high resolution reconstruction, and rotorcraft acoustic prediction arc discussed. Next, to illustrate challenges and issues involved, a case study is presented in which an analysis of flight data from a specific XV-15 tiltrotor acoustic flight test is discussed in detail. Issues related to validation of methodologies using flight test data are discussed. Primary flight parameters such as velocity, altitude, and attitude are discussed and compared for repeated flight conditions. Other measured steady state flight conditions are examined for consistency and steadiness. A representative example prediction is presented and suggestions are made for future research.

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.↗

X-33 Turbulent Aeroheating Measurements and Predictions

Measurements and predictions of the X-33 turbulent aeroheating environment have been performed for Mach 6, perfect-gas air conditions. The purpose of this investigation was to compare turbulent aeroheating predictions from two Navier-Stokes codes, LAURA and GASP, with each other and with experimental data in which turbulent flow was produced through either natural transition or forced transition using roughness elements. The wind tunnel testing was conducted at free stream Reynolds numbers of 0.72 x 10(exp 7)/m to 2.4 x 10(exp 7)/m (2.2 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 7.3 x 10(exp 6)/ft) on 0.254 m (10.0-in.) X-33 models at alpha = 40 deg with smooth surfaces, smooth surfaces with discrete trips, and surfaces with simulated bowed thermal protection system panels. Turbulent flow was produced by the discrete trips and bowed panels for all but the lowest Reynolds number, while turbulent flow on the smooth model was produced only at the highest Reynolds number. Turbulent aeroheating levels on each of the three model types were measured using global phosphor thermography and agreed to within the experimental accuracy (+/= 15%) of the test technique. Computations were performed at the wind tunnel free stream conditions using both codes. Turbulent aeroheating levels predicted using the LAURA code were generally 5%-10% lower than those from GASP, although both sets of predictions fell within the experimental accuracy of the wind tunnel data.

Hollis, Brian R.↗

Summary of Data from the First AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

The results from the first AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop are summarized. The workshop was designed specifically to assess the state-of-the-art of computational fluid dynamics methods for force and moment prediction. An impartial forum was provided to evaluate the effectiveness of existing computer codes and modeling techniques, and to identify areas needing additional research and development. The subject of the study was the DLR-F4 wing-body configuration, which is representative of transport aircraft designed for transonic flight. Specific test cases were required so that valid comparisons could be made. Optional test cases included constant-C(sub L) drag-rise predictions typically used in airplane design by industry. Results are compared to experimental data from three wind tunnel tests. A total of 18 international participants using 14 different codes submitted data to the workshop. No particular grid type or turbulence model was more accurate, when compared to each other, or to wind tunnel data. Most of the results overpredicted C(sub Lo) and C(sub Do), but induced drag (dC(sub D)/dC(sub L)(exp 2)) agreed fairly well. Drag rise at high Mach number was underpredicted, however, especially at high C(sub L). On average, the drag data were fairly accurate, but the scatter was greater than desired. The results show that well-validated Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD methods are sufficiently accurate to make design decisions based on predicted drag.

Levy, David W.↗

Broadband Noise Predictions for an Airfoil in a Turbulent Stream

Loading noise is predicted from unsteady surface pressure measurements on a NACA 0015 airfoil immersed in grid-generated turbulence. The time-dependent pressure is obtained from an array of synchronized transducers on the airfoil surface. Far field noise is predicted by using the time-dependent surface pressure as input to Formulation 1A of Farassat, a solution of the Ffowcs Williams - Hawkings equation. Acoustic predictions are performed with and without the effects of airfoil surface curvature. Scaling rules are developed to compare the present far field predictions with acoustic measurements that are available in the literature.

Casper, J.↗

The Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

This paper describes several methods for the prediction of jet noise. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy while the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all the approaches some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equation using a k - epsilon turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach: but, is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. The paper concludes with a proposal for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms and a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

Morris, Philip J.↗

Computational Aeroheating Predictions for Mars Lander Configurations

The proposed Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission is intended to deliver a large rover to the Martian surface within 10 km of the target site. This paper presents computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions of forebody heating rates for two MSL entry configurations with fixed aerodynamic trim tabs. Results are compared to heating on a 70-deg sphere-cone reference geometry. All three heatshield geometries are designed to trim hypersonically at a 16 deg angle of attack in order to generate the lift-to-drag ratio (LID) required for precision landing. Comparisons between CFD and tunnel data are generally in good agreement for each configuration, but the computations predict more flow separation and higher heating on a trim tab inclined 10 deg relative to the surface. CFD solutions at flight conditions were obtained using an 8-species Mars gas in chemical and thermal non-equilibrium. Laminar and Baldwin-Lomax solutions were used to estimate the effects of the trim tabs and turbulence on heating. A tab extending smoothly from the heatshield flank is not predicted to increase laminar or turbulent heating rates above the reference levels. Laminar heating on a tab deflected 10 deg from the conical heatshield is influenced by flow separation and is up to 35% above the baseline heating rate. The turbulent solution on the inclined tab configuration predicts attached flow and a 43% heating increase above the reference level.

Edquist, Karl T.↗

Vision for CFD-Based Combustion Instability Predictions

This viewgraph representation presents an overview of the proposed development for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based combustion instability predictions. These predictions are discussed in regard to Next Generation Launch Technologies (NGLT). Topics covered include: relevance of combustion instability to NGLT, evolution of combustion instability prediction techniques, and development of CFD-based models to support combustion instability predictions to support NGLT and beyond.

Rocker, Marvin↗

Improving Resource Selection and Scheduling Using Predictions

The introduction of computational grids has resulted in several new problems in the area of scheduling that can be addressed using predictions. The first problem is selecting where to run an application on the many resources available in a grid. Our approach to help address this problem is to provide predictions of when an application would start to execute if submitted to specific scheduled computer systems. The second problem is gaining simultaneous access to multiple computer systems so that distributed applications can be executed. We help address this problem by investigating how to support advance reservations in local scheduling systems. Our approaches to both of these problems are based on predictions for the execution time of applications on space- shared parallel computers. As a side effect of this work, we also discuss how predictions of application run times can be used to improve scheduling performance.

Smith, Warren↗

Comparison of Wind-Tunnel Predictions with Flight Measurements of the Longitudinal-Stability and -Control Characteristics of a Douglas BTD-1 Airplane

Low Mach number longitudinal-stability and control characteristics as predicted by use of wind tunnel data from a powered 3/16-scale model are compared with flight test measurements of a Navy BTD-1 airplane. The accuracy of the wind tunnel data and the discrepancies involved in attempting to correlate with flight data are discussed and analyzed. The comparison showed that wind tunnel predictions were, in general, in good agreement with flight test data. The predicted values were for the most part sufficiently accurate to show the satisfactory and unsatisfactory characteristics in the preliminary design stage and to indicate possible methods of improvement. The discrepancies which did occur were attributed principally to physical dissimilarities between model and airplane and the instability to determine accurately the flight power conditions. The effect of Mach number was considered negligible since the maximum flight test value was about 0.5. In order to simulate more closely the flight conditions and hence obtain more accurate data for predictions, it appears desirable to perform large-scale tests of unorthodox control surfaces such as the sealed vaned elevators with which the airplane was equipped.

Bunnell, Mort V.↗

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. This includes completion of a literature survey regarding Weibull size effect in MEMS and strength testing techniques. Also of interest is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in tensile specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. Another potential item of interest is analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structuredlife (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. Along these lines work may also be performed on transient fatigue life prediction methodologies.

Jadaan, Osama M.↗

Computational Aeroheating Predictions for Mars Lander Configurations

The proposed Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission is intended to deliver a large rover to the Martian surface within 10 km of the target site. This paper presents computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions of forebody heating rates for two MSL entry configurations with fixed aerodynamic trim tabs. Results are compared to heating on a 70-deg sphere-cone reference geometry. All three heatshield geometries are designed to trim hypersonically at a 16 deg angle of attack in order to generate the lift-to-drag ratio (L/D) required for precision landing. Comparisons between CFD and tunnel data are generally in good agreement for each configuration, but the computations predict more flow separation and higher heating on a trim tab inclined 10 deg relative to the surface. CFD solutions at flight conditions were obtained using an 8-species Mars gas in chemical and thermal nonequilibrium. Laminar and Baldwin-Lomax solutions were used to estimate the effects of the trim tabs and turbulence on heating. A tab extending smoothly from the heatshield flank is not predicted to increase laminar or turbulent heating rates above the reference levels. Laminar heating on a tab deflected 10 deg from the conical heatshield is influenced by flow separation and is up to 35% above the baseline heating rate. The turbulent solution on the inclined tab configuration predicts attached flow and a 43% heating increase above the reference level.

Edquist, Karl T.↗

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Cranked Arrow Wing (F-16XL-1) Flight Flow Physics with CFD Predictions at Subsonic and Transonic Speeds

The CFD modeling used has produced reasonably good global upper-surface pressure coefficient comparisons with measured flight data at both transonic and subsonic speeds at the angles of attack presented. Boundary layer comparisons showed the profiles to be reasonably well predicted inboard and under the primary vortex system. However, the secondary vortex profile was not well predicted either at the anticipated separation point or under the secondary vortex. Moreover, the flight data showed there to be a vortex/boundary-layer interaction that occurred in the vicinity of the secondary vortex. The spanwise distribution of local skin friction measured data was reasonably well predicted, especially away from the wing leading-edge. Lastly, predicted and measured flight-pressures, as well as flight-image data, for the F-16XL-1 airplane are now available via the World Wide Web.

Lamar, John E.↗

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Yang, Fanglin↗

Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

Soloway, Don↗