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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

How state transitions balance photosynthetic electron transport in plants – a quantitative study

In plants, the process of state transition regulates the allocation of sunlight energy between Photosystem II (PSII) and PSI. However, the implications of state transitions for harmonizing electron transport rates between photosystems, and a full quantitative picture of this process, remain underexplored. We integrated quantitative biology (biochemical and biophysical approaches) with in vivo spectroscopy on wild-type Arabidopsis and protein phosphorylation mutants. This combination facilitated monitoring of Chl redistribution and its functional implications for light harvesting and electron transport. Our findings demonstrate the reallocation of 12% of highly phosphorylated ‘extra’ light-harvesting complex II under state 2 from stacked to unstacked thylakoids. This reduces the number of Chls per PSII from 216 to 182, while increasing the number in PSI from 187 to 223. Such Chl redistribution compensates for differences in photosystem stoichiometry and photochemical quantum efficiencies, thereby precisely synchronizing electron transport rates in both photosystems. Mutant analyses corroborate that this regulatory mechanism involves reversible phosphorylation. We inferred that state transitions optimize linear electron transport, leaving no additional capacity for cyclic electron transport. Furthermore, the results suggest that the controversies about long-range migration of LHCII from stacked to unstacked thylakoid domains arise from differences in phosphorylation levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning and LHC event generation

First-principle simulations are at the heart of the high-energy physics research program. They link the vast data output of multi-purpose detectors with fundamental theory predictions and interpretation. This review illustrates a wide range of applications of modern machine learning to event generation and simulation-based inference, including conceptional developments driven by the specific requirements of particle physics. New ideas and tools developed at the interface of particle physics and machine learning will improve the speed and precision of forward simulations, handle the complexity of collision data, and enhance inference as an inverse simulation problem.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual dressed black holes as the end point of the charged superradiant instability in $\mathcal{N} = 4$ Yang Mills

Charged Black holes in AdS_5 × S^5 A d S 5 × S 5 suffer from superradiant instabilities over a range of energies. Hairy black hole solutions (constructed within gauged supergravity) have previously been proposed as endpoints to this instability. We demonstrate that these hairy black holes are themselves unstable to the emission of large dual giant gravitons. We propose that the endpoint to this instability is given by Dual Dressed Black Holes (DDBH)s; configurations consisting of one, two, or three very large dual giant gravitons surrounding a core AdS A d S black hole with one, two, or three SO(6) S O ( 6 ) chemical potentials equal to unity. The dual giants each live at AdS A d S radial coordinates of order \sqrt{N} N and each carry charge of order N^2 N 2 . The large separation makes DDBHs a very weakly interacting mix of their components and allows for a simple computation of their thermodynamics. We conjecture that DDBHs dominate the phase diagram of \mathcal{N}=4 𝒩 = 4 Yang-Mills over a range of energies around the BPS plane, and provide an explicit construction of this phase diagram, briefly discussing the interplay with supersymmetry. We develop the quantum description of dual giants around black hole backgrounds and explicitly verify that DDBHs are stable to potential tunneling instabilities, precisely when the chemical potentials of the core black holes equal unity. We also construct the 10-dimensional DDBH bulk solutions.

Choi, Sunjin (ORCID:0000000283310199)↗
DOE OSTI2025

HfTa_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys hafnium-tantalum (Hf-Ta). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP). Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Hf and Ta. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect BCC lattice sites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,040 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. Further methodological and structural information is contained in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Delineation of the impact on temporal behaviors of off-axis photoemission in an ultrafast electron microscope

Efforts to push the spatiotemporal imaging-resolution limits of femtosecond laser-driven ultrafast electron microscopes (UEMs) to the combined angstrom–fs range will benefit from stable sources capable of generating high bunch charges. Recent demonstrations of unconventional off-axis photoemitting geometries are promising, but connections to the observed onset of structural dynamics are yet to be established. Here we use the in-situ photoexcitation of coherent phonons to quantify the relative time-of-flight (r-TOF) of photoelectron packets generated from the Ni Wehnelt aperture and from a Ta cathode set-back from the aperture plane. We further support the UEM experiments with particle-tracing simulations of the precise electron-gun architecture and photoemitting geometries. In this way, we measure discernible shifts in electron-packet TOF of tens of picoseconds for the two photoemitting surfaces. Furthermore, these shifts arise from the impact that the Wehnelt-aperture off-axis orientation has on the electron-momentum distribution, which modifies both the collection efficiency and the temporal-packet distribution relative to on-axis emission. Future needs are identified; we expect this and other developments in UEM electron-gun configuration to expand the range of material phenomena that can be directly imaged on scales commensurate with fundamental structural dynamics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

HfTi_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys hafnium-titanium (Hf-Ti). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP). Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Hf and Ti. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect bcc lattice cites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,100 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. The calculations have been collected on Air Force HPC11 cluster using the VASP 6.5.1. Additional methodology and file structure information is available in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

TiV_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys titanium-vanadium (Ti-V). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP). Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Ti and V. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect bcc lattice cites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,100 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. The calculations have been collected on Air Force HPC11 cluster using the VASP 6.5.1. Additional methodology and file structure information is available in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

NbTi_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys niobium-titanium (Nb-Ti). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP), https://github.com/ORNL/ScalableWorkflow_VASP_Calculations. Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Nb and Ti. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect bcc lattice cites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,100 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. The calculations have been collected on Air Force HPC11 cluster using the VASP 6.5.1. Additional methodology and file structure information is available in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. Methods: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. Results: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $\$7.5$ billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $\$97$ billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($\$88$-$\$103$ billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. Conclusions: We found that the net costs per death averted ($\$180,000$-$\$4.2$ million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($\$4.6$ to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sr-Nd-Pb isotope systematics of Australasian tektites: Implications for the nature and composition of target materials and possible volatile loss of Pb

The Australasian tektite (AAT) strewn field is the largest strewn field on the Earth with about ~10–30% coverage, both land and ocean, but a clearly identified source impact crater is absent despite the young age of AAT of ca. 790 ka. A genetic link between the Australasian tektites and their unequivocal parental materials is therefore largely impossible to establish. Nevertheless, the nature of the parental materials and the extent of volatilization can be constrained using the splash form tektites, carrying the chemical signatures of high-temperature processes, and the layered (so-called Muong Nong-type) tektites, which are less chemically homogenized and exceptionally abundant in the AAT field. New high-precision Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic measurements were obtained for a chemically and petrographically well-characterized suite of AAT, which included the Muong Nong-type (MN-AAT) with precisely known field locations in Laos and splash forms (SF-AAT) from different parts of the strewn field. Additionally, optically dark and light zones of the MN-AAT were also separately analyzed. Homogeneous ε Nd values from -11.8 to -11.2, combined with a narrow range of two-stage Nd model ages from 1.67 to 1.72 Ga for the entire AAT suite, point to a well-mixed source, in terms of REE, of the crustal segment from which the sedimentary material for tektites was ultimately derived. The Sr isotopic data largely overlap for SF-AAT and MN-AAT ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.71636–0.72021) and indicate Paleozoic to Mesozoic sedimentary parentage. However, late Neogene to early Quaternary re-deposition and formation of a thick silt-sized sedimentary section with vertical stratification is required to comply with 10Be data. Lead isotope systematics documents at least three different components which can perhaps be represented by different mineral phases, such as feldspar, zircon, organic matter adsorbed on young sediments etc., sorted during fluvial transport and final deposition. In addition, the SF-AAT have systematically lower Pb contents than the MN-AAT, and generally show isotopically heavier Pb isotopic ratios. This is theoretically consistent with a preferential volatilization of lighter Pb isotopes during evaporation and considerably larger Pb loss from SF-AAT when compared to MN-AAT. Nevertheless, further experimental work would be necessary to unambiguously distinguish kinetic fractionation from source mixing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of the center-of-mass energies of $e^+e^-$ collisions at BESIII*

During the 2016-17 and 2018-19 running periods, the BESIII experiment collected 7.5 fb -1 of $e^+e^-$ collision data at center-of-mass energies ranging from 4.13 to 4.44 GeV. These data samples are primarily used for the study of excited charmonium and charmoniumlike states. By analyzing the di-muon process $e^+e^-$ → $e^+e^-$ →, we measure the center-of-mass energies of the data samples with a precision of 0.6 MeV. Through a run-by-run study, we find that the center-of-mass energies were stable throughout most of the data-collection period.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Conduction Cooling Strategies for Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) processing consists of numerous parameters which take time to optimize for various geometries. One aspect of the metal AM process that continues to be explored is the control of thermal energy accumulation during component manufacturing due to the melting and solidification of the feedstock. Excessive energy accumulation causes thermal failure of the component while minimal energy accumulation causes lack of fusion with the build plate or previous layer. The ability to simulate the thermal response of an AM component can increase research efficiency by reducing the time to optimize thermal energy accumulation. This paper presents an effective implementation of finite element analysis to determine the thermal response of a wire arc additive manufactured component with various build plate sizes and cooling methods including, integral build plate cooling, oversized build plates with passive cooling, and non-integral build plate cooling. The use of integral build plate cooling channels was shown to decrease the interpass temperature at the conclusion of the build process by 55% and build plate temperature by 96% compared to the conventionally deposited sample with 20 second dwell time. The use of a tall build plate with passive cooling was shown to reduce the interpass temperature by 32% as compared to the conventionally deposited sample with 20 second dwell time. Each cooling strategy evaluated decreased the interpass temperature within a range of 20–55% which enables higher deposition rates and decreased dwell times during depositions. The cooling strategies are designed to be implemented in a hybrid or retrofit AM platform to mitigate concerns of the thermal input from the additive process having detrimental effects on the precision of the machining process. This paper shows that accurate simulations of all strategies can be used to accurately predict the thermal response of the various strategies discussed. These cooling strategies will allow for increased deposition rates with comparable interpass temperature and decreased dwell time, increasing deposition efficiency. This model and these simulations are verified by experimental results. It is concluded that passive strategies, such as the over-sized tall build plate, can be used when liquid coolant in the AM environment could negatively affect the deposition process. Active cooling strategies, such as the integral build plate cooling could be used if low thermal conductivity materials are deposited or higher material deposition rates are desired. This paper discusses the use of active and passive cooling used during AM and shows how a simulation model can be used to make design choices for cooling strategies. The model also enables verification of select critical process parameters such as dwell times for a desired interpass temperature.

Heinrich, Lauren↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cylinders’ percolation: Decoupling and applications

In this paper we establish a strong decoupling inequality for the cylinder’s percolation process introduced by Tykesson and Windisch (Probab. Theory Related Fields 154 (2012) 165–191). This model features a very strong dependency structure, making it difficult to study, and this is why such decoupling inequalities are desirable. It is important to notice that the type of dependencies featured by cylinder’s percolation is particularly intricate, given that the cylinders have infinite range (unlike some models like Boolean percolation) while at the same time being rigid bodies (unlike processes such as random interlacements). Here our work introduces a new notion of fast decoupling, proves that it holds for the model in question and finishes with an application. More precisely, we prove that for a small enough density of cylinders, a random walk on a connected component of the vacant set is transient for all dimensions d≥3.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

LHCspin: a Polarized Gas Target for LHC

The goal of the LHCspin project is to develop innovative solutions for measuring the 3D structure of nucleons in high-energy polarized fixed-target collisions at LHC, exploring new processes and exploiting new probes in a unique, previously unexplored, kinematic regime. A precise multi-dimensional description of the hadron structure has, in fact, the potential to deepen our understanding of the strong interactions and to provide a much more precise framework for measuring both Standard Model and Beyond Standard Model observables. This ambitious task poses its basis on the recent experience with the successful installation and operation of the SMOG2 unpolarized gas target in front of the LHCb spectrometer. Besides allowing for interesting physics studies ranging from astrophysics to heavy-ion physics, SMOG2 provides an ideal benchmark for studying beam-target dynamics at the LHC and demonstrates the feasibility of simultaneous operation with beam-beam collisions. With the installation of the proposed polarized target system, LHCb will become the first experiment to simultaneously collect data from unpolarized beam-beam collisions at $\sqrt{s}$=14 TeV and polarized and unpolarized beam-target collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}\sim$100 GeV. LHCspin has the potential to open new frontiers in physics by exploiting the capabilities of the world's most powerful collider and one of the most advanced spectrometers. This document also highlights the need to perform an R&D campaign and the commissioning of the apparatus at the LHC Interaction Region 4 during the Run 4, before its final installation in LHCb. This opportunity could also allow to undertake preliminary physics measurements with unprecedented conditions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polarization Control via Artificial Optical Nonlinearity in Dielectric Metasurfaces

Nonlinear optical phenomena are generally governed by geometry in matter systems, as they depend on the spatial arrangement of atoms within materials or molecules. Metasurfaces, through precisely designed geometries on a subwavelength scale, allow the optical response of a material to be tailored far beyond its natural properties. Therefore, metasurfaces are highly appealing for enabling the engineering of nonlinear optical interactions. Current studies of nonlinear metasurfaces predominantly focus on the phase control of the generated light. Nonetheless, investigating the tensorial nature of the nonlinearity of metasurfaces and its effect on the polarization of the generated light is critical to fully unlocking a range of applications, such as nonlinear vector beam generation and nonlinear polarization imaging. Here, we study the artificial optical nonlinearity of a dielectric metasurface originating from its meta-atom symmetry and describe the third-order nonlinear behavior by considering the polarization degree of freedom. We establish an effective nonlinear medium model that serves as a design toolbox for developing amorphous silicon-based geometric metasurfaces with customizable features for third-harmonic generation. We further extract quantitative values of the artificial nonlinear susceptibility tensor elements related to the investigated nonlinear process and geometry. The implemented functional devices demonstrate the versatility of dielectric metasurfaces in shaping the emitted light in terms of amplitude, phase, and polarization for the precise engineering of advanced nonlinear architectures targeting applications in nonlinear imaging and complex light generation.

Diffraction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗