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At least 775 records · Page 43

PERCEPTIVE: an R shiny $\underline{p}$ipelin$\underline{e}$ for the p$\underline{r}$edi$\underline{c}$tion of $\underline{ep}$igenetic modula$\underline{t}$ors $\underline{i}$n no$\underline{v}$el sp$\underline{e}$cies

Epigenetic processes are central to regulating gene expression, genome stability, and metabolic function across the tree of life; yet, their roles remain underexplored in microalgae, especially as new species continue to be identified and characterized. This is likely due to the cumbersome nature and species-dependent attributes of epigenetic wet-lab methodologies, which preclude the rapid identification of epigenetic modifications and modulators. However, there is high conservation of epigenetic processes from budding yeast to humans; in many cases, one may infer how behavior and function are epigenetically regulated in novel species by identifying epigenetic modulators, or the proteins responsible for conferring epigenetic modifications. Here, to this end, we have developed a graphical software package, titled PERCEPTIVE (pipeline for the prediction of epigenetic modulators in novel species). This platform solely uses the genomic sequence of an algal species, and preexisting information from other model organisms, to predict the epigenetic modulators and associated modifications in algae. Predictions are presented to the user in a graphical interface, which provides literature-based interpretation of results, enabling users to quickly understand potential epigenetic processes in their algal species of interest and plan follow-up experiments. To test PERCEPTIVE, we predicted epigenetic modulators in several feedstock candidate algae species. To validate these predictions, wet-lab studies were performed, including mass spectrometry; these results underscore the high accuracy of PERCEPTIVE predictions. Overall, PERCEPTIVE represents a powerful in silico tool for the research and manipulation of algal species, which does not require a priori knowledge of epigenetics and is accessible to a broad set of investigators.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

American-Made Solar Prize: Edgeli Enables DER Integration (CRADA 615) (Final Report)

The purpose of this project was to demonstrate how granular time series data and automated data transformation, and impact assessment tools could speed interconnection approvals for distributed energy resource projects of various types and sizes. Types included community solar, rooftop solar, and EV charging projects. Using software routines to automate the transformation of data (e.g. GIS) to a network database and power flow model then applying scenarios to create hourly (8760) hosting capacity values and voltage and thermal impacts for specific projects, we were able to demonstrate the feasibility of quickly assembling and analyzing key utility data sets for interconnection purposes. The outcomes of this effort will become the foundation for future work that will enhance and encapsulate the software components developed as part of this project, into web services (e.g. APIs) that can be integrated into queue management systems and automate interconnection screening processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Efficient generation and extreme compression of multidimensional solitary states in molecular gas-filled hollow-core fibers driven by picosecond Yb lasers

We present an in-depth study on the impact of spatiotemporal Raman enhancement in molecular gas-filled hollow-core fibers (HCFs), demonstrating the efficient generation and post-compression of multidimensional solitary states (MDSS). Through different experimental scenarios—employing large-core HCFs filled with molecular gases (N 2 and N 2 O) and driven by high energy, sub-picosecond and picosecond Fourier transform-limited ytterbium laser pulses—this work leverages multimode propagation and enhanced spatiotemporal interactions to achieve significant spectral broadening and asymmetric redshift, contrasting sharply with self-phase modulation. Our findings reveal that, beyond the regime of maximum nonadiabatic molecular alignment, spatiotemporal nonlinear enhancement primarily governs spectral broadening for input pulse durations up to 1 ps. The process shows limited sensitivity to input pulse duration and the two investigated molecular gases (N 2 and N 2 O), with only subtle differences in broadening arising from their distinct Raman spectroscopic properties. Furthermore, post-compression of MDSS was achieved in various cases. Notably, using 7 mJ, 1 ps laser pulses, we generated 22 fs pulses with a 47% energy conversion efficiency of the input pulse energy. These results position MDSS as a powerful platform for generating high-energy, ultrashort pulses with tunable wavelengths, offering a robust solution for applications such as high harmonic generation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Optimized NiTe 2 /Ni back contacts via chemical deposition for high performance CdTe solar cells

The development of efficient and stable back contacts remains a major challenge in achieving high performance and long-term stability of CdTe thin-film solar cells. Here, this work revisits the formation of NiTe 2 by chemical bath deposition (CBD) as a back contact for CdTe devices. An optimized CBD recipe, based on high-purity precursors and the addition of copper chloride directly into the bath, was developed and applied to fabricate Cu-doped CdTe solar cells. A modified Cu-free methodology was also applied to Group V doped absorbers. The process included pinhole filling, ion milling, CBD, annealing, and sputtering to form a low-barrier back contact. Devices fabricated using this method achieved consistent open-circuit voltages (V oc ) above 800 mV and fill factors (FF) exceeding 70%. The best Cu-doped devices reached power conversion efficiencies (PCE) above 18 %, and preliminary results with Group V-doped material demonstrated compatibility of the method with high-efficiency, state-of-the-art CdTe devices. This study shows that NiTe 2 /Ni back contacts, formed via an optimized chemical process followed by sputtering of Ni, represent a promising pathway for achieving low-barrier and potentially stable back contacts in modern CdTe photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantum-Based Molecular Dynamics Simulations Using Tensor Cores

Tensor cores, along with tensor processing units, represent a new form of hardware acceleration specifically designed for deep neural network calculations in artificial intelligence applications. Tensor cores provide extraordinary computational speed and energy efficiency but with the caveat that they were designed for tensor contractions (matrix–matrix multiplications) using only low-precision floating-point operations. Despite this perceived limitation, we demonstrate how tensor cores can be applied with high efficiency to the challenging and numerically sensitive problem of quantum-based Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, which requires highly accurate electronic structure optimizations and conservative force evaluations. The interatomic forces are calculated on-the-fly from an electronic structure that is obtained from a generalized deep neural network, where the computational structure naturally takes advantage of the exceptional processing power of the tensor cores and allows for high performance in excess of 100 Tflops on a single Nvidia A100 GPU. Stable molecular dynamics trajectories are generated using the framework of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, which combines computational efficiency with long-term stability, even when using approximate charge relaxations and force evaluations that are limited in accuracy by the numerically noisy conditions caused by the low-precision tensor core floating-point operations. A canonical ensemble simulation scheme is also presented, where the additional numerical noise in the calculated forces is absorbed into a Langevin-like dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Validation and Demonstration of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an integrated energy system (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. The new RAVEN plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) only addresses the limits that affect the production variables and the corresponding rates of variation (explicit constraints). However, other variables are subject to constraints, and the associated limits should be accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response affects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. To obtain a more accurate approximation of the nonlinear dynamic behavior, a parametric version of the dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) algorithm was developed to derive the state-space representation matrices of the IES components at different scheduling parameter. Thanks to this approach, a more accurate approximation of the system response can be obtained, the limits imposed by thermal mechanical implicit constraints can be translated into power dispatch limits, and the feedbacks to HERON power dispatcher can be provided. To assess the developed methodology, a power dispatching test case composed of three power generating and storage units (Balance of Plant, Secondary Energy Source, Thermal Energy Storage) was developed. The power output of each one of the three units was optimized to meet the imposed time-dependent load demand trajectory and to maximize the IES profitability by meeting both the explicit and implicit constraints.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-fidelity multiphysics load following and accidental transient modeling of microreactors using NEAMS tools: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The feasibility of modeling microreactors using high-fidelity models with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) tools is investigated in this report. Three overarching questions guided this research: can NEAMS tools readily be applied for high-fidelity multiphysics modeling of different types of transients in microreactor designs; how accurate are the results obtained; and are improvements needed in accuracy or user experience of NEAMS tools, especially considering newly developed capabilities? This work builds upon FY-2022 work, and two microreactor concepts considering heat pipe (HP-MR) and gas-cooled (GC-MR) technologies were further analyzed using high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. The NEAMS tools considered and coupled within the MultiApp environment are Griffin for neutronics, BISON for thermo-mechanics, Sockeye for heat pipe modeling (in HP-MR), SAM for 1D Fluid – 3D solid modeling of coolant channels and system modeling of balance of plant components (in GC-MR), and the SWIFT code for hydrogen redistribution in hydride moderator. The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept was further analyzed in FY-2023 to demonstrate the stochastic TRISO failure modeling capability in BISON to check operational limits of the TRISO fuel. A new full-core Gas-Cooled MicroReactor (GC-MR) model was developed based on the initial assembly-model used in Y-2022 and used for steady-state and accidental depressurization transient simulations. Accuracy of the simulations performed was assessed through 1) verification analyses completed on the different physics with code-to-code comparison, and 2) validation of the multiphysics simulations based on modeling of the Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY) experiment. In FY-2023, the mesh and model of KRUSTY was updated to closely match publicly available data, and the neutronic model was verified and validated against experimental control rod worth measurements. The multiphysics model of KRUSTY was developed and used for steady-state analysis and for modeling reactivity insertion transient. The calculated power increase and stabilization agrees well with experimental data following adjustment in fuel thermal expansion coefficient. As an important component of this project, the ANL team gathered experience with a wide range of NEAMS tools: the MOOSE Mesh System, Griffin, BISON, SWIFT, Sockeye, SAM, Workbench, and the MOOSE MultiApp System, and provided assessment of new capabilities. Noteworthy are the user assessment of the “vapor-only” flow model in Sockeye and development of a multiphysics startup transient in HP-MR unit cell for use as tutorial in Sockeye. The full-core GC-MR model was used for assessment of SAM for balance of plant modeling and for demonstrating the SWIFT code capability for hydrogen redistribution modeling in multiphysics transient analyses. In this process, several bugs/issues were identified and reported to developers. Finally, the assembly GC-MR model developed in FY-2022 coupling Griffin, BISON and SAM through flow blockage and rod ejection transients was published to the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB). The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept high-fidelity multiphysics coupling of Griffin/BISON/Sockeye in load-following and heat pipe failure transients was also published on the VTB. Those submissions are enabling thorough review of these models as well as wide distribution to industry, regulator, and university users. In this analysis, several new research questions were uncovered, and follow-up analyses are recommended to further improve some models, consider additional transients, and continue development of VTB models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Intelligent Manufacturing for Extreme Environments Conference Proceedings

The Intelligent Manufacturing for Extreme Environments (IMEE) workshop was held at the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES) in Idaho Falls, Idaho, May 2–3, 2023, in support of the United States (U.S.) National Science Foundation (NSF) Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: Workshop Opportunities (EPSCoR-WO) program. This workshop featured keynote speakers, panels, and breakout sessions with 58 participants. Nuclear reactors need to operate under extreme service conditions, such as high temperatures, corrosive environments, and high-radiation doses. Hence, reactor components must be able to withstand those conditions. The participants envision a future where on demand manufacture of components for small modular reactors (SMRs), microreactors, and other advanced reactor designs are possible. In this future, regulatory bodies accept validated manufacturing processes and standardized feedstocks, thus eliminating the need for individual component testing. However, the necessary technologies and regulatory policies needed for this future do not exist today. Successful innovation would revolutionize the nuclear power sector, enable fast commercial development, create economic opportunities in the U.S., reduce the carbon footprint and associated risks, and promote a skilled and highly competitive workforce. The objective of the workshop was to convene world-class experts, researchers, educators, and students to identify gaps and envision solutions for five interrelated challenges for intelligent manufacturing in extreme environments. The key outcomes of the conference were: (1) to take the opportunity for researchers and educators to network and form collaborations; and (2) to produce a full report to inform policy-makers, industry, and the academic community of various challenges and opportunities in the nuclear energy sector.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring the Nature of Neutrinos with the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE)

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation experimental program designed to study the behaviour of neutrino oscillation. DUNE will utilize a neutrino beam originating at Fermilab, near Chicago, and will leverage a detector at Fermilab (Near Detector) and a detector 1300 km away in South Dakota (Far Detector), south of Saskatchewan. In the first phase of DUNE, its Far Detector will comprise of two 10,000 ton (fiducial) liquid argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) modules – powerful tracking calorimeter detectors – placed nearly a mile underground. With this large, sensitive, underground detector, DUNE aims to collect a high statistics and pure sample of neutrinos at the Far Detector. This setup also offers the potential to study non-beam physical processes via e.g. neutrinos produced in the atmosphere, supernova neutrino bursts, and/or solar neutrinos, etc. A second phase will aim to add more detector mass and expand the program. The Near Detector will consist of a LAr TPC module as well: critical to constraining systematic uncertainties in the oscillation analysis. However, this LAr TPC will have a novel design using a pixel-based readout instead of the traditional wire-based readout. This and the segmentation of the LAr TPC into multiple units are crucial in mitigating the high multiplicity of neutrino interactions expected in any readout window given its proximity to the beam. The Near Detector will feature additional components and capability beyond the LAr TPC, allowing one to deeply characterize the neutrino flux. Due to the complexity of this experimental program, several smaller-scale prototype detectors have been operating to test, validate, and improve both the technical designs and software for processing and analyzing events. By operating in charged particle test beams or neutrino beams, several of the prototypes are also capable of producing valuable results. Canadian institutions are involved in the realization of the DUNE through efforts with both the Near and Far Detectors and prototypes. DUNE is anticipated to begin operating near the end of this decade/the beginning of the next. This talk will focus on the overall DUNE program, for example its ultimate plans, status, and the efforts with prototypes.

Howard, Bruce [York U., Canada; Fermilab]↗

Demonstration of a Novel Technology to Manage Electricity Demand in Grid-Independent Military Microgrids

This research was conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with the S&C Electric Inc. through funding provided by the ESTCP. The project demonstrates use of cybersecure Automated Demand Response (ADR) technology to effectively manage microgrid loads during grid-independent, also known as "islanded," operation. When military microgrids become isolated from the main electrical grid, they are required to balance electricity supply and demand locally. Given that local generation may be constrained, the prevailing strategy involves shedding all but the most critical loads by tripping smart circuit breakers, which then necessitate manual resetting. This approach is generally implemented at the building level, which means that the buildings with mission-critical activities are exempt from load management and remain fully powered, whereas those deemed non-critical can experience a complete loss of service. In this research we developed a method that allows building automation systems to selectively control their assets in response to load shedding request from a microgrid controller, avoiding total loss of service in contrast to the conventional control approach. A commercial OpenADR client server by GridFabric is used for communication between the microgrid controller and the building management system (BMS). The microgrid controller monitors both generation capacity and various assets within the microgrid and issues a demand reduction request when necessary. This request is communicated to the OpenADR server via Modbus. Upon receiving the request, the OpenADR server forwards it to the BMS utilizing the OpenADR protocol. The BMS is pre-configured with various levels of load reduction strategies based on the controllable assets available, allowing for a nuanced approach to demand reduction. Both lab and field tests were performed that considered load shedding needed to achieve closed transition into island mode and to accommodate changing loads and power source availability while islanded. A commercial microgrid controller was used for these tests with normal programming within the expected constraints of the system capabilities. That is, the solution did not require any specialized modification to the code base of the controller. Given the latency of the round-trip communication path between the microgrid controller and the various devices involved with the load shed processes, there are certain scenarios for which the demonstrated solution are appropriate and some which are not. The methods described in this report can be used for load shedding/restoration during transitions between islanded and grid-tied modes of operation, as well as accommodating normal variations in load and the need to remove a power source from operation for maintenance. These methods should not be used for scenarios that require load shedding within a second or two such as sudden and unanticipated significant load increases or loss of power sources through equipment faults.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of Lighting Application Efficacy Measurement Framework

Lighting significantly contributes to electricity consumption in buildings. The most widely used measure of lighting energy efficiency, luminous efficacy, quantifies only the intensity of light generated by light sources, weighted by the spectral sensitivity of the human visual system (i.e., the energy efficiency of individual lighting devices). However, luminous efficacy does not fully address the use of lighting in architectural spaces. To address these limitations, we developed a framework to framework to calculate lighting application efficacy (LAE), the relationship between the electrical power consumed by lighting hardware, and the amount of light that contributes to the visual perception of building occupants. The proposed LAE framework is based on the primary pathway of light in architectural settings: the generation and emission of light from a luminaire, the travel of the light throughout the space and into the eyes of occupants, and the process of visual perception. The project’s primary outputs are a method for measuring lighting application efficacy and a framework for facilitating future research to improve the metric.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Unexpected Breakdown of Collinear Factorisation at Leading Twist in Exclusive π 0 γ Photoproduction Due to Glauber Pinch

We demonstrate the breakdown of collinear factorisation for the exclusive photoproduction at leading twist of a pair, sensitive to both quark and gluon GPD channels. For the very first time in the case of an exclusive process, we demonstrate the breakdown of collinear factorisation through soft-to-collinear Glauber exchanges. We show that the amplitude fails to factorise due to the presence of a Glauber pinch, which has the same power counting as the standard collinear pinch. The Glauber pinch that occurs here is peculiar, since the mechanism that produces it involves two-loop integrals. This is corroborated by an explicit calculation of the gluon GPD channel to pair photoproduction, which leads to a divergent amplitude already at leading twist-2 and at leading order in . On the other hand, for processes where the gluon GPD channel is forbidden, for example when the outgoing meson is a charged pion or a rho meson, collinear factorisation works without any issues.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Effect of Zr and Sc additions on coarsening- and creep resistance of AlSi10Mg fabricated by laser powder bed fusion

Microstructure and creep properties are studied in a eutectic AlSi10Mg alloy modified with Zr and Sc additions (Al-9.8Si-0.32Mg-0.70Zr-0.23Sc, wt%) manufactured through laser powder-bed fusion (L-PBF). Three types of Zr/Sc-bearing powders - elemental, master-alloy, and pre-alloyed - are employed in the fabrication process, with the pre-alloyed powders providing the highest incorporation of Zr and Sc in the Al matrix. Here, the as-printed alloy exhibits a fine cellular Al-Si eutectic structure which fragments and coarsens into micron-sized Si particles during aging at 300 ºC, leading to a steady drop in alloy microhardness between 0.1 and 1000 h. Coarsening of the eutectic Si phase during aging is not measurably affected by Zr and Sc in solid solution, which precipitate during aging and increases strength, compensating weakening from Si coarsening between 1 and 200 h at 300 ºC. Atom-probe analysis in the peak-aged condition (96 h/300 °C) confirms the presence of Al 3 (Sc,Zr) secondary nano-precipitates with an average radius of 1.0 nm and some Si solubility. Micron-sized grains are present throughout the alloy, with ultra-fine-grained regions at the melt pool boundaries, neither of which coarsen during long-term aging at 300 ºC. Under creep conditions at 300 °C, the Zr/Sc-bearing alloy with Al 3 (Sc,Zr) nano-precipitates exhibits power-law behavior, with a high apparent stress exponent (n a = 9) and a high threshold stress (σ th = 43 MPa), exhibiting nearly double the strength of a Zr/Sc-free AlSi10Mg control alloy (σ th = 22 MPa).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Incorporating energy justice and equity objectives in power system models

Ensuring an equitable energy transition requires models and tools that can account for equity and energy justice goals. Power system models (PSMs) are widely used throughout industry, government, and academia to simulate or optimize the operations and planning of current and future electricity systems under different scenarios, parameter assumptions and policy frameworks. These models are important tools that allow users to understand how the power system may evolve under different future conditions, but importantly, they are also used to inform policy implementation and investment decisions across all aspects of the power system. However, existing models seldom include energy justice considerations and therefore energy justice priorities are not reflected in the policies and other decision-making processes that are informed by these models. The purpose of this review is to provide a framework that energy modelers can draw upon to integrate energy justice and equity goals into PSMs. To this end, 99 papers that examine the intersection of energy justice and power system models are summarized and ten core aspects of the power system that can impact energy justice outcomes, and therefore require new modeling approaches, are identified. This review then establishes key current practices, challenges, and opportunities associated with capturing energy justice considerations in power system models across these ten aspects. This review concludes by proposing four key research directions that should be pursued to improve the representation of energy justice and equity in power system modeling. Finally, this review also addresses challenges raised by United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7, which aims to ensure affordable energy access to everyone and Sustainable Development Goal 13, which aims to take urgent action to address climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Industrial Electrification Assessment Framework

Electrification refers to the process of transitioning from fuel-powered systems to electric-powered systems, or electrotechnologies. This document first provides an overview of industrial electrification, including possible advantages and common applications. Next, it provides a comprehensive, step-by-step framework for assessing the potential for electrification at an individual industrial facility. The steps in this framework include inventorying current fuel-powered systems, evaluating a manufacturing facility’s electrification readiness, and identifying, evaluating, and prioritizing strategies and technologies. This document also contains information about project implementation, and the appendices provide tools and resources to support organizations pursuing electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Understanding Structures of Cyber Competition in an Era of Major Power Rivalry

Over the past two decades, the cyber domain has emerged and evolved into a key strategic domain for nations across the globe. Security strategies are espoused by heads of state that focus on how to manage the increasingly enormous, crosscutting impact that the cyber domain has on national security across economic, military, intelligence, intellectual property, and countless other facets. These strategies frequently evolve, and even change entirely, as leaders adapt to new technologies and administrations change. Even if these strategies did not change at all, they would take inordinate amounts of time to effectively implement within the organizational structures of government. The time required to go from setting department and agency-level goals, to the time small teams have well-oiled processes and expertise to accomplish tactical objectives that meet the strategic vision is lengthy. With near certainty, by the time objectives and vision are implemented, the landscape, strategy, or both has changed entirely. While this churn will likely never cease due to the rapidly changing nature of the cyber domain, this problem raises an important question: can governmental structures be organized to rapidly adapt to changing cyber strategies? As offices responsible for particular missions in cyberspace shuffle about within the bureaucracy, are technical capabilities enabled or enhanced? No matter how advanced a particular technical capability is or how adept the staff is at solving problems, they will be ineffective if placed haphazardly within the organization: the right authorities may not exist for their office, the correct lines of interpersonal communication may not be established properly, or insufficient resources have not been allocated to effectively deploy a brilliant technical solution. This concept of organizational agility in the context of national cyber capabilities is important when taking into account the National Defense Strategy’s emphasis on cyber capability and the ability of the United States to compete and rapidly adapt to new challenges posed by rivals. As a nation, we are at a point where technology evolves rapidly enough to warrant thoughtful and nimble changes to the bureaucratic structures that support how cyber operations are carried out. Taking these questions and cross-comparing them to the organizational structures across China, Russia, and the United States provides for an interesting thought experiment. As non-democratic regimes, China and Russia have differing priorities and internal power dynamics than the United States and thus organize their governments differently. By combining known and broadcasted strategies of these nations with the observed technical capabilities demonstrated in the public domain, we can begin to see how organizational structures map to strategic goals and directly enable technical capabilities. Insight can be gained by introducing organizational structures into traditional analysis focusing solely around strategies and capabilities; additionally, otherwise unknown capabilities or intents might be discovered or inferred by analyzing organizational structures alone. Analyzing cyber operations from this oft-overlooked perspective could potentially provide useful insight and more concrete actions that can be undertaken to realize the National Defense Strategy’s goals.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Cost estimation of balance of plant equipment scale up for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer systems

Water electrolyzers that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen could be a key technology for increasing hydrogen supply to meet expanded and emerging market applications, although currently the capital costs of these electrolyzers are high. Here we examine cost reductions that might be achieved by scaling up proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems and leveraging economies of scale through balance of plant (BOP) components for system sizes between 1 MW and 1 GW. We estimate BOP equipment capital costs of about $\$$848/kW at 1 MW, potentially decreasing to $\$$87/kW at 1 GW (2022-dollar year basis) with most of the cost reduction happening as systems scale from 1 MW to 100 MW. We find that BOP subsystems hydrogen drying and water knockout benefited the most from economies-of-scale cost reductions, and piping, instrumentation, and housing and power electronics were less impacted. These cost reductions from economies of scale could be more significant than estimated cost reductions from manufacturing scale-up reported in literature. These results add to the knowledge base that could guide optimal system designs that balance process scale-up with plant modularization and numbering-up. We also estimate that scaling up BOP could potentially lower the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by $\$$1.7-$\$$4.6/kg, depending on the scale-up magnitude and the plant capacity factor.

08 HYDROGEN↗