SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “performance modeling and prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

DOE OSTI2022

History Matching and Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope is ongoing. After more than 3 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is less than that of the same polymer used in a polymer pilot in Argentina.

Wang, Xindan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Combustion and Surface Chemistry Simulations

Design of modern combustion systems relies on computer models to predict how changes in design will affect performance. These models have largely displaced previous methods that rely on the designer’s intuition or costly and time-consuming physical testing. By using improved models, design cycles can be shortened, and cleaner and more efficient combustion devices can be created. This project aims to improve computer simulations of transportation fuels with the goal of making these simulations faster and more accurate for predicting combustion in vehicles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Zero-RK Acceleration of Low-Lifecycle-Carbon Fuel (LLCF) Simulations

Designing modern combustion systems now relies on computer models that predict how changes in design will affect performance. These models have replaced older methods that relied on the designer's intuition or costly and time-consuming physical testing. By using improved models, design cycles can be shortened, and cleaner and more efficient combustion devices can be created. This project aims to improve computer simulations of low-lifecycle-carbon fuels (LLCFs) with the goal of making these simulations faster and more accurate for predicting combustion in vehicles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Composite Structured Surfaces for Durable Dropwise Condensation

Dropwise condensation of steam on hydrophobic substrates has a 10X higher heat transfer coefficient compared to filmwise condensation. To promote dropwise condensation, low surface energy hydrophobic coatings (polymers) are typically utilized. The low intrinsic thermal conductivity (k < 1 W/(m · K)) of polymers, coupled with high heat transfer coefficient of dropwise condensation (100 kW/(m 2 · K)), necessitates that the coating be thin (< 1µm) in order to avoid reducing the overall heat exchanger conductance. However, thin polymeric films easily degrade. The two opposing requirements result in the need for optimization between the durability (thick coating) and the heat transfer (thin coating). To enable high thermal conductivity in thicker coatings, we develop metal-polymer structured surfaces. By using porous structures as inter-connected heat-conducting backbones that are filled with hydrophobic materials, we enable tuning of the coating effective thermal conductivity and surface energy. Three metal structures were studied; micro/nanowires, inverse opals, and sintered spheres. Heat transfer performance was calculated using three-dimensional finite element method simulations with two distinct boundary conditions; convection at the walls and isothermal walls. Interestingly, the overall conductance shows up to 40% difference depending on the boundary condition used in calculating the composite coating effective thermal conductivity. We use our model to predict the heat transfer performance as a function of metal fraction by volume and by surface area for condensation. By coupling our thermal simulations with a previously verified analytical model for predicting wetting behavior on heterogeneous surfaces, we propose a regime map to predict dropwise-to-filmwise transition. Furthermore, our work not only forms a starting point for the development of durable dropwise condensing surfaces, it identifies important considerations needed for computing effective thermal conductivity of composites.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zero-RK Acceleration of Low-Life-cycle Carbon Fuel (LLFC)Simulations

Designing modern combustion systems now relies on computer models that predict how changes in design will affect performance. These models have replaced older methods that relied on the designer’s intuition or costly and time-consuming physical testing. By using improved models, design cycles can be shortened and cleaner and more efficient combustion devices can be created. This project aims to improve computer simulations of low-life-cycle carbon fuels (LLCFs) with the goal of making these simulations faster and more accurate for predicting combustion in vehicles.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark Tracking System for Performance Monitoring

Benchmarking is essential for high-performance software development, particularly for monitoring performance across code iterations. This project focused on enhancing the benchmarking process for Lamellar, an asynchronous runtime for High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Prior to this work, benchmark results were difficult to track and compare across code versions, presenting significant challenges in identifying performance regressions and long-term trends. The primary objective was to establish a systematic, reproducible approach for measuring performance and detecting regressions following code commits. Our methodology involved three key components: standardizing benchmark outputs, implementing data versioning, and developing analysis tools. We standardized the benchmark output format to JSON Line records containing specific fields (execution time, hardware specifications, and environmental variables). To address data management challenges, we evaluated several options and eventually chose a git repository dedicated to benchmark data. We developed a suite of Python tools that processed benchmark results, enriched them with metadata, and facilitated search in the repository. The resulting system enables more efficient filtering and comparison of performance metrics across commit histories, hardware configurations, and benchmark variants through a unified query interface. Our implementation reduces computational overhead by first checking for existing results through configuration matching before initiating new benchmark runs, thereby conserving resources. The system has been validated by Lamellar developers. It organizes results by benchmark type and build configurations for efficient retrieval. Future developments include a planned Large Language Model interface for predicting benchmark performance, incorporating the criterion package for statistical analysis, which will enable automated detection of statistically significant performance changes, and integration with continuous integration pipelines. Despite these enhancements being reserved for future work, this project has successfully provided the Lamellar development team with a framework for maintaining consistent performance standards and identifying optimization opportunities across workloads and hardware environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1997

Angled Injection: Turbulent Flow Hybrid Bearings Comparison to Test Results

Hydrostatic/hydrodynamic (hybrid) journal bearings handling process liquids have limited dynamic stability characteristics and their application as support elements to high speed flexible rotating systems is severely restricted. Measurements on water hybrid bearings with angled orifice injection have demonstrated improved rotordynamic performance with virtual elimination of cross-coupled stiffness coefficients and null or negative whirl frequency ratios. A bulk-flow model for prediction of the static performance and force coefficients of hybrid bearings with angled orifice injection is advanced. The analysis reveals that the fluid momentum exchange at the orifice discharge produces a pressure rise in the hydrostatic recess retards the shear flow induced by journal rotation, and thus, reduces cross-coupling forces. The predictions from the model are compared with experimental measurements for a 45 deg. angled orifice injection, 5 recess water hybrid bearing operating at 10.2, 17.4, and 24.6 krpm and with supply pressures of 4, 5.5, and 7 MPa. The correlations include recess pressures, flow rates, and rotordynamic force coefficients at the journal centered position.

SanAndres, Luis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Array Performance Modeling for NASA’s Artemis Missions

NASA’s Artemis exploration campaign includes multiple elements that utilize photovoltaic power generation. Artemis mission profiles feature a variety of events that can limit solar array generation and stress electrical power system (EPS) performance, including eclipses, propulsive or navigational maneuvers which constrain the positioning of the solar arrays, and spiral trajectories with significant radiation degradation. These features make predicting the performance of the power system particularly important and requires accurate modeling of power generation by the solar arrays under a variety of conditions. One of the tools used to predict spacecraft EPS performance is the System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. SPACE is used by NASA to model EPS performance for the Orion crew transport vehicle and the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) of the Gateway space station. This presentation will provide an overview of how SPACE calculates solar array performance, including degradation factors considered and environmental conditions that drive the solar array designs. Additionally, Orion array performance predictions generated by SPACE will be compared to flight data collected during the Artemis I mission.

Photovoltaic↗

NASA NTRS2017

Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.

operational safety↗

DOE OSTI2019

Short-term traffic state prediction from latent structures: Accuracy vs. efficiency

Recently, deep learning models have shown promising performances in many research areas, including traffic states prediction, due to their ability to model complex nonlinear relationships. However, deep learning models also have drawbacks that make them less preferable for certain short-term traffic prediction applications. For example, they require a large amount of data for model training, which is also computationally expensive. Moreover, deep learning models lack interpretability of the results. This paper develops a short-term traffic states forecasting algorithm based on partial least square (PLS) to help enhance real-time decision-making and build better insights into traffic data. The proposed model is capable of predicting short-term traffic states accurately and efficiently by capturing dominant spatiotemporal features and day-to-day variations from collinear and correlated traffic data. Three case studies are developed to demonstrate the proposed model in short-term traffic prediction applications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Imaging Phase Segregation in Nanoscale Li x CoO 2 Single Particles

Li x CoO 2 (LCO) is a common battery cathode material that has recently emerged as a promising material for other applications including electrocatalysis and as electrochemical random access memory (ECRAM). During charge– discharge cycling LCO exhibits phase transformations that are significantly complicated by electron correlation. While the bulk phase diagram for an ensemble of battery particles has been studied extensively, it remains unclear how these phases scale to nanometer dimensions and the effects of strain and diffusional anisotropy at the single-particle scale. Understanding these effects is critical to modeling battery performance and for predicting the scalability and performance of electrocatalysts and ECRAM. Here we investigate isolated, epitaxial LiCoO 2 islands grown by pulsed laser deposition. After electrochemical cycling of the islands, conductive atomic force microscopy (c-AFM) is used to image the spatial distribution of conductive and insulating phases. Above 20 nm island thicknesses, we observe a kinetically arrested state in which the phase boundary is perpendicular to the Li-planes; we propose a model and present image analysis results that show smaller LCO islands have a higher conductive fraction than larger area islands, and the overall conductive fraction is consistent with the lithiation state. Thinner islands (14 nm), with a larger surface to volume ratio, are found to exhibit a striping pattern, which suggests surface energy can dominate below a critical dimension. When increasing force is applied through the AFM tip to strain the LCO islands, significant shifts in current flow are observed, and underlying mechanisms for this behavior are discussed. The c-AFM images are compared with photoemission electron microscopy images, which are used to acquire statistics across hundreds of particles. Finally, the results indicate that strain and morphology become more critical to electrochemical performance as particles approach nanometer dimensions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1992

System model development for nuclear thermal propulsion

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. This is crucial for mission analysis and for control subsystem testing as well as for the modeling of various failure modes. Performance must be accurately predicted during steady-state and transient operation, including startup, shutdown, and post operation cooling. The development and application of verified and validated system models has the potential to reduce the design, testing, and cost and time required for the technology to reach flight-ready status. Since Oct. 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DOD), and NASA have initiated critical technology development efforts for NTP systems to be used on Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions to the Moon and Mars. This paper presents the strategy and progress of an interagency NASA/DOE/DOD team for NTP system modeling. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs to simulate various NTP systems. The first level will provide rapid, parameterized calculations of overall system performance. Succeeding computer programs will provide analysis of each component in sufficient detail to guide the design teams and experimental efforts. The computer programs will allow simulation of the entire system to allow prediction of the integrated performance. An interagency team was formed for this task to use the best capabilities available and to assure appropriate peer review.

Walton, James T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of protein assemblies, the next frontier: The CASP14-CAPRI experiment

Here we present the results for CAPRI Round 50, the fourth joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round comprised a total of twelve targets, including six dimers, three trimers, and three higher-order oligomers. Four of these were easy targets, for which good structural templates were available either for the full assembly, or for the main interfaces (of the higher-order oligomers). Eight were difficult targets for which only distantly related templates were found for the individual subunits. Twenty-five CAPRI groups including eight automatic servers submitted ~1250 models per target. Twenty groups including six servers participated in the CAPRI scoring challenge submitted ~190 models per target. The accuracy of the predicted models was evaluated using the classical CAPRI criteria. The prediction performance was measured by a weighted scoring scheme that takes into account the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group as part of their five top-ranking models. Compared to the previous CASP-CAPRI challenge, top performing groups submitted such models for a larger fraction (70–75%) of the targets in this Round, but fewer of these models were of high accuracy. Scorer groups achieved stronger performance with more groups submitting correct models for 70–80% of the targets or achieving high accuracy predictions. Servers performed less well in general, except for the MDOCKPP and LZERD servers, who performed on par with human groups. In addition to these results, major advances in methodology are discussed, providing an informative overview of where the prediction of protein assemblies currently stands.

protein complexes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Unveiling the Transferability of PLSR Models for Leaf Trait Estimation: Lessons from a Comprehensive Analysis with a Novel Global Dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47,393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally-distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12-0.49, 0.15-0.42, and 0.25-0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58-18.24%, 6.27-11.55% and 7.0-33.12%) compared to nonspatial random cross-validation (NRCV). The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs and time due to biased validation schemes and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

Leaf traits↗