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At least 775 records · Page 43

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Isovector Axial Charge and Form Factors of Nucleons from Lattice QCD

A survey of the calculations of the isovector axial vector form factor of the nucleon using lattice QCD is presented. Attention is paid to statistical and systematic uncertainties, in particular those due to excited state contributions. Based on a comparison of results from various collaborations, a case is made that lattice results are consistent within 10%. A similar level of uncertainty is in the axial charge gAu−d, the mean squared axial charge radius ⟨rA2⟩, the induced pseudoscalar charge gP∗, and the pion–nucleon coupling gπNN. Even with the current methodology, a significant reduction in errors is expected over the next few years with higher statistics data on more ensembles closer to the physical point. Lattice QCD results for the form factor GA(Q2) are compatible with those obtained from the recent MINERνA experiment but lie 2–3σ higher than the phenomenological extraction from the old ν–deuterium bubble chamber scattering data for Q2>0.3 GeV2. Current data show that the dipole ansatz does not have enough parameters to fit the form factor over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, whereas even a z2 truncation of the z expansion or a low order Padé are sufficient. Looking ahead, lattice QCD calculations will provide increasingly precise results over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, and MINERνA-like experiments will extend the range to Q2∼2 GeV2 or higher. Nevertheless, improvements in lattice methods to (i) further control excited state contributions and (ii) extend the range of Q2 are needed.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Thermochemical Platform Analysis WBS: 2.1.0.302

The objective of the NREL Thermochemical Platform Analysis (WBS 2.1.0.302) project is to inform and guide R&D priorities for thermal and catalytic conversion processes by providing process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This is achieved through close collaboration with researchers and external experts, along with the use of both commercially available modeling tools and the development or use of collaboration-derived domain-specific tools and resources, such as refinery integration, kinetic and reactor models, phase equilibrium models, and pertinent bio-products market studies. This project is directly aligned with DOE-BETO goals, with the enabling of technology advancements and cost reduction for biomass derived biofuels being one of its primary objectives. TEA-guided research facilitated by this project has helped achieve significant modeled cost reductions for the ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) pathway and the indirect liquefaction (IDL) pathway for the conversion of syngas to high-octane gasoline (HOG). Cost reduction through refinery integration, development of valuable co-products, and other options are being identified for future research to help reduce the modeled MFSP to $2.50/GGE by 2030. Additional priorities anticipated in the future, such as the use of renewable electricity for liquid fuels and products, and emphasis on waste utilization are also being explored in conjunction with research on catalytic utilization of syngas and other gases (including CO2). Industry-relevant parameters are given deliberate attention as part of the work done under this project to help answer questions important for future commercialization and address associated risks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of fission yield covariance matrices on decay heat uncertainty quantification with the DARWIN2 package

Although fission yields are strongly correlated, correlations between them are usually not taken into account when performing decay heat uncertainty calculations with the CEA DARWIN2 package due to the lack of reference covariance matrices associated to the JEFF-3.1.1 evaluation. However, covariance matrices for {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu thermal fission yields have been produced recently by the subgroup 37 of OECD/NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation (WPEC). The study presented in this paper evaluates the effect of those covariances on the decay heat uncertainty calculation, both on fission burst experiments and on integral decay heat measurements that are part of the DARWIN2 experimental validation database. Although some differences are observed, partly due to the variety of models used to produce the matrices, the propagation of fission yield covariances always leads to a reduction of the decay heat uncertainty for cooling time above 10 seconds, indicating that not taking them into account is a conservative hypothesis from a safety point of view. Nevertheless, the strong impact of those covariances on the decay heat uncertainty also highlights the need of documented and consistent fission yield uncertainties and correlation data. On top of that, all the covariance matrices used for this study represent the correlation between the physical model parameters, but none of them includes the experimental correlations. An evaluation of the experimental correlations would also be of strong interest for decay heat uncertainty calculations. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A mechanistic damage model for solid oxide fuel cell ceramic materials - Part I: Constitutive modeling

A multiscale mechanistic damage model for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) ceramics that combines micromechanics of stiffness reduction due to material porosity change and microcracking with a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) description for the evolution of microcracks up to fracture is developed in this work. The model also accounts for volumetric swelling of the anode due to redox cycling. Porosity change and swelling during redox combined with normal operating thermomechanical loads could increase the stress, strain and damage distributions in SOFC stacks leading them to failure. The proposed model involves three governing parameters: (i) the porosity in terms of the pore or void volume fraction, (ii) material swelling magnitude prescribed at a given loading step, and (iii) the damage variable that describes microcracking caused by thermomechanical loads and swelling. Pores and microcracks in the ceramics are modeled as randomly distributed ellipsoidal inclusions with negligible stiffness by an Eshelby-Mori-Tanaka formulation combined with an inclusion orientation distribution method. Microcracking damage evolution is described by a CDM formulation. Volumetric swelling is treated in a similar way to thermal expansion in the constitutive relations. After validation and numerical checks, the damage model is used to analyze a simplified SOFC positive-electrode/electrolyte/negative-electrode (PEN) structure subjected a redox cycle in addition to thermomechanical loads experienced during normal operation of a SOFC stack.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Direct observation of the local microenvironment in inhomogeneous CO 2 reduction gas diffusion electrodes via versatile pOH imaging

In this study, we report how the micrometer-scale morphology of a carbon dioxide reduction (CO 2 R) gas diffusion electrode (GDE) affects the mass transport properties and with it, the local CO 2 R performance. We developed a technique to probe the microenvironment in a CO 2 R GDE via local pOH imaging with time- and three-dimensional spatial, micrometer-scale resolution. The local activity of hydroxide anions (OH - ), represented by the pOH value, around a GDE in contact with an aqueous electrolyte is a crucial parameter that governs the catalytic activity and CO 2 R selectivity. Here, we use fluorescence confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) to create maps of the local pOH around a copper GDE by combining two ratiometric fluorescent dyes, one of which is demonstrated as a pOH sensor for the first time in this work. We observe that the local pOH decreases when current is applied due to the creation of OH - as a byproduct of CO 2 R. Interestingly, the pOH is lower inside microtrenches compared to the electrode surface and decreases further as trenches become more narrow due to enhanced trapping of OH - . We support our experimental results with multiphysics simulations that correlate exceptionally well with measurements. These simulations additionally suggest that the decreased pOH inside microcavities in the surface of a CO 2 R GDE leads to locally enhanced selectivity towards multicarbon (C 2+ ) products. This study suggests that narrow microstructures on the length scale of 5 μm in a GDE surface serve as local CO 2 R hotspots, and thus highlights the importance of a GDE's micromorphology on the CO 2 R performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tape-in-tape-out (TITO): a new approach for in-situ contact resistance measurements in high temperature superconducting CORC® cables

One of the ongoing development challenges with ReBCO high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cables is normal zone initiation and local heating, which is associated with over-critical current flowing through and around local performance reductions in individual tapes. Although inter-tape contact resistances are well-reported for individual tapes and HTS cables, these measurements are a challenge in CORC® cables as current percolates through much of the cable. In this work, developments in tape-in-tape-out (TITO) automated individual tape powering experiments are presented, and a simplified modeling approach for current percolation in CORC® cables is developed. An optimization is formulated to fit the model parameters to a large set of TITO experiments on a single cable, allowing the layer-dependent inter-tape contact resistance to be extracted. Measurements are presented and discussed for a straight CORC® cable and a cable bent to a 152 mm and 76 mm radius. The approach provides both quantitative insight and facilitates better understanding of current sharing phenomena in HTS cables.

Teyber, Reed↗

Keck Infrared Transient Survey. I. Survey Description and Data Release 1

Abstract We present the Keck Infrared Transient Survey, a NASA Key Strategic Mission Support program to obtain near-infrared (NIR) spectra of astrophysical transients of all types, and its first data release, consisting of 105 NIR spectra of 50 transients. Such a data set is essential as we enter a new era of IR astronomy with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman). NIR spectral templates will be essential to search JWST images for stellar explosions of the first stars and to plan an effective Roman SN Ia cosmology survey, both key science objectives for mission success. Between 2022 February and 2023 July, we systematically obtained 274 NIR spectra of 146 astronomical transients, representing a significant increase in the number of available NIR spectra in the literature. Here, we describe the first release of data from the 2022A semester. We systematically observed three samples: a flux-limited sample that includes all transients <17 mag in a red optical band (usually ZTF r or ATLAS o bands); a volume-limited sample including all transients within redshift z < 0.01 ( D ≈ 50 Mpc); and an SN Ia sample targeting objects at phases and light-curve parameters that had scant existing NIR data in the literature. The flux-limited sample is 39% complete (60% excluding SNe Ia), while the volume-limited sample is 54% complete and is 79% complete to z = 0.005. Transient classes observed include common Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae, tidal disruption events, luminous red novae, and the newly categorized hydrogen-free/helium-poor interacting Type Icn supernovae. We describe our observing procedures and data reduction using PypeIt , which requires minimal human interaction to ensure reproducibility.

Tinyanont, S. (ORCID:0000000214814676)↗

SPT-3G D1: Axion early dark energy with CMB experiments and DESI observations

We present the most up-to-date constraints on axion early dark energy (AEDE) from cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements. In particular, we assess the impact of data from ground-based CMB experiments, the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT)—both with and without Planck—on constraints on AEDE. We also highlight the impact that BAO information from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) has on these constraints. From CMB data alone, we do not find statistically significant evidence for the presence of AEDE, and we find only moderate reduction in the Hubble tension. From the latest SPT data alone, we find the maximal fractional contribution of AEDE to the cosmic energy budget is f EDE < 0.12 at 95% confidence level (CL), and the Hubble tension between the SPT and Supernovae, H0, for the Equation of State of Dark Energy (SH0ES) results is reduced to the 2.3 σ level. When combining the latest SPT, ACT, and Planck datasets, we find f EDE < 0.070 at 95% CL and the Hubble tension at the 3.6 σ level. In contrast, adding DESI data to the CMB datasets results in mild preference for AEDE and, in some cases, non-negligible reduction in the Hubble tension. From SPT + DESI , we find f EDE = 0.08 1 - 0.052 + 0.037 at 68% CL, and the Hubble tension reduces to 1.5 σ . From the combination of DESI with all three CMB experiments, we get f EDE = 0.05 5 - 0.047 + 0.024 at 68% CL and a weak preference for AEDE over Λ CDM . This data combination, in turn, reduces the Hubble tension to 2.6 σ . We highlight that this shift in parameters when adding the DESI dataset is a manifestation of the discrepancy currently present between DESI and CMB experiments in the concordance model Λ CDM .

Khalife, A. R. [Paris, Inst. Astrophys.] (ORCID:00↗

Multi‐hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models reveals the unexpected influence of empirical assumptions at leaf and global scales

Abstract Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation ( A ). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Two predominant photosynthesis models are in common usage: Farquhar (FvCB) and Collatz (CBGB). However, a detailed quantitative comparison of these two models has never been undertaken. In this study, we unify the FvCB and CBGB models to a common parameter set and use novel multi‐hypothesis methods (that account for both hypothesis and parameter variability) for process‐level sensitivity analysis. These models represent three key biological processes: carboxylation, electron transport, triose phosphate use (TPU) and an additional model process: limiting‐rate selection. Each of the four processes comprises 1–3 alternative hypotheses giving 12 possible individual models with a total of 14 parameters. To broaden inference, TBM simulations were run and novel, high‐resolution photosynthesis measurements were made. We show that parameters associated with carboxylation are the most influential parameters but also reveal the surprising and marked dominance of the limiting‐rate selection process (accounting for 57% of the variation in A vs. 22% for carboxylation). The limiting‐rate selection assumption proposed by CBGB smooths the transition between limiting rates and always reduces A below the minimum of all potentially limiting rates, by up to 25%, effectively imposing a fourth limitation on A . Evaluation of the CBGB smoothing function in three TBMs demonstrated a reduction in global A by 4%–10%, equivalent to 50%–160% of current annual fossil fuel emissions. This analysis reveals a surprising and previously unquantified influence of a process that has been integral to many TBMs for decades, highlighting the value of multi‐hypothesis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigations of Relative Stability and Distribution of Mo Species in Pore Space of Mo/ZSM-5 Systems

Reduced forms of molybdenum (Mo) carbides anchoring in pore space of zeolites are considered as activated catalysts for the methane dehydroaromatization reaction. However, the atomic structure of the active sites and their stability under reactive conditions are still not clearly understood. Herein, we employ a synergistic theoretical and experimental approach to investigate this research gap. The Raman data shows the existence of the distributed binuclear and mononuclear Mo oxides in the pores that are corroborated by the hydrogen temperature-programmed reduction experiments. The binding free energies of mono- and bi-nuclear Mo carbides in straight and sinusoidal channels and their intersections as a function of temperature and anchoring sites have been determined. The catalysts with Mo coordinated at two anchoring sites are more stable compared to those located at the rings with one Al substitution. The activation energies of the catalysts migration to adjacent rings were estimated as a function of temperature and kinetics parameters of such migrations were determined. The migration is facilitated if there is one anchoring site shared between two rings. This process can contribute to an agglomeration mechanism leading to loss of catalytic activity.

Myshakin, Evgeniy↗

Analytic techniques for solving the transport equations in electroweak baryogenesis

We develop an efficient method for solving transport equations, particularly in the context of electroweak baryogenesis. It provides fully-analytical results under mild approximations and can also test semi-analytical results, which are applicable in more general cases. Key elements of our method include the reduction of the second-order differential equations to first order, representing the set of coupled equations as a block matrix of the particle densities and their derivatives, identification of zero modes, and block decomposition of the matrix. We apply our method to calculate the baryon asymmetry of the Universe (BAU) in a Standard Model effective field theory framework of complex Yukawa couplings to determine the sensitivity of the resulting BAU to modifications of various model parameters and rates, and to estimate the effect of the commonly-used thin-wall approximation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Scale-up of microwave-assisted, continuous flow, liquid phase reactors: Application to 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural production

Microwave (MW) technology can be powerful for the electrification and intensification of chemical manufacturing. However, very few examples of scaled MW processes exist. In this work, we build a scaled, MW-assisted, continuous flow reactor for the processing of liquid phase chemistries with specific application to 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) production. Here, we demonstrate a corresponding computational fluid dynamics model to simulate the reactor’s temperature profile and performance, both of which are in good agreement with experiments. We construct a surrogate model to relate operating parameters to performance for guiding experiments, without demanding simulations, via active learning. Heat recirculation is demonstrated in this scaled reactor, further extending its scale and reducing the energy demand. An HMF yield of ~55 % and a productivity of 0.1 kg/hr, 8x higher than any other reactor, at a flowrate >20x than prior work, are demonstrated while maintaining energy efficiency of >98 %. A basic economic analysis estimates a $1.85/kg cost of HMF from fructose and >60 % reduction in CO 2 emissions than a conventional system without considering the impact of green electricity. We demonstrate that MW technology is well-applied to systems larger than the laboratory scale, and strategies to further reduction in cost and CO 2 are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating cascaded and tunable phase change materials for enhanced thermal energy storage utilization and effectiveness in building envelopes

The incorporation of phase change materials (PCMs) in envelope is considered an effective thermal energy storage (TES) method for energy savings and load flexibility in buildings. However, an important limitation of PCMs is their fixed and narrow transition temperature range. Because the interior temperature setpoints are typically different in summer versus winter, and the exterior temperature varies substantially above and below the setpoints during the year, PCMs with a fixed transition temperature are utilized only during part of the year. In this paper, we provide an extensive numerical analysis of the performance of a lightweight building envelope containing three different types of PCMs: traditional single-layer PCM with a fixed transition temperature, novel cascaded two-layer PCM with different transition temperatures, and a "futuristic" tunable PCM whose transition temperature can be varied in-situ using external excitation. We compare their performances by evaluating the relationship between the PCM utilization and parameters such as latent heat, transition temperature range, PCM thickness, and PCM location. While traditional PCMs are mostly active during one season, properly designed cascaded and tunable PCMs can be active much longer, thereby allowing load shift and energy savings in both heating and cooling seasons. Under the operating conditions considered in this study, tunable PCMs performed best, providing the highest utilization (about 2 times the traditional PCMs) and enhanced effectiveness (up to 99% peak load reduction in cooling season and 34% peak load reduction in heating season) with the same amount of material as the traditional PCMs; however, cascaded PCMs can be a good alternative while tunable PCMs are unavailable.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Wettability of ultra-small pores of carbon electrodes by size-asymmetric ionic fluids

Recently, we studied the phase behavior of ionic fluids under confinement using the classical density functional theory within the framework of the restricted primitive model. Additionally, the theoretical results indicate that narrowing the pore size may lead to a drastic reduction in the electric double layer capacitance, while increasing the surface electrical potential would improve the ionic accessibility of micropores. In this work, we extend the theoretical investigation to systems containing size-asymmetric electrolytes that may exhibit a vapor-liquid like phase transition in the bulk phase. The effects of pore size and surface electric potential on the phase diagram and microscopic structures of the confined electrolytes were studied over a broad range of parameters. We found that decreasing the pore size or increasing the surface potential could destabilize the liquid phase in micropores, and capillary evaporation could occur regardless of the size asymmetry between cations and anions. Compared to that in a symmetric ionic system, the vapor-liquid phase separation is more likely to take place as the size asymmetry becomes more pronounced. The phase transition would alter the “accessibility” of ions to micropores and lead to coexisting micropores with different surface charge densities as identified by Monte Carlo simulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

2D analysis of tokamak divertor-plasma detachment-bifurcation with operational parameters and geometries

UEDGE simulations with density scans for various input power, transport coefficients and outer poloidal leg length are performed to study the conditions for the existence of a bifurcation-like drop of T e at the outer strike point, commonly referred to as a detachment cliff, when transitioning to a detached plasma from an attached plasma in the outer divertor as the upstream density increases (McLean et al., 2015). The simulation results show that a detachment cliff tends to occur with a higher power input regardless of diffusivities and leg length. Further analysis of change of plasma profiles at a cliff indicate that, in addition to the sharp reduction of the E x B drift fluxes in the outer divertor studied in Jaervinen et al., (2018), the substantial change of the Mach number in the outer divertor and the decrease of the outer mid-plane T e due to the radiation front moving across the separatrix into the confinement region above the X-point consistently occur for all UEDGE density scans that have a detachment cliff. UEDGE time-dependent simulation of the evolution of a detachment cliff shows that the rapid increase of radiation above the X-point occurs in a time scale of ~0.3–0.5, which could possibly be the trigger for the formation of a detachment cliff, quicker than the Mach number change in a time scale of ~1 ms and the drop of T e in a time scale of ~2–3 ms in the outer divertor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A dimensionality reduction algorithm for mapping tokamak operational regimes using a variational autoencoder (VAE) neural network

Abstract A variational autoencoder (VAE) is a type of unsupervised neural network which is able to learn meaningful data representations in a reduced dimensional space. We present an application of VAE in identifying the operational stability boundary of tokamak plasma discharges. This model was implemented using a dataset of over 3000 discharges from the high beta tokamak-extended pulse (HBT-EP) device. We found the VAE model to be capable of forming a continuous low-dimensional operational space map and identifying the operational boundaries using a specified warning time window. By projecting the operational parameters onto the same reduced space, this provides an intuitive way for the machine operator or an automated control system to perform disruption avoidance using a relevant control actuator as a discharge approaches a boundary. Pre-programmed GPU control experiments were conducted to demonstrate this control technique using HBT-EP’s saddle control coils as a horizontal position actuator, showing the ability to avoid the oncoming disruptive event and extend the duration of the discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Investigation of SF6 Alternatives in Spark Gap Switches for GWP Reduction

This primary purpose of this project was to evaluate alternative gas mixtures to sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) developed for high voltage power delivery applications for use in high voltage spark gap switches. These SF6 alternatives lower global warming potential emissions and enable improvements to the pressure-voltage design space. A combined experimental, computational, and theoretical study was used to quantify the impact of persistent breakdown products on the breakdown distribution of SF6-replacement gas mixtures. Viable SF6 replacements suitable for use in spark gap switches were studied to enable performance and agility improvements for next-generation pulsed power research relevant to national security missions. Experimental campaign included establishing parameters of switch gases as function of concentration. Various concentrations and pressures were tested for trends in breakdown voltage, repeatability, and durability, and breakdown constituents. A zero-dimensional plasma global model was used to simulate the plasma arc decay and recombination process in spark-gap switches relevant to the Z machine. Finally, a complete and consistent set of electron-neutral collision cross-sections for the novel insulating gas C4F7N is reported.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗