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At least 775 records · Page 43

Reduction of Altitude Diffuser Jet Noise Using Water Injection

A feasibility study on the effects of injecting water into the exhaust plume of an altitude rocket diffuser for the purpose of reducing the far-field acoustic noise has been performed. Water injection design parameters such as axial placement, angle of injection, diameter of injectors, and mass flow rate of water have been systematically varied during the operation of a subscale altitude test facility. The changes in acoustic far-field noise were measured with an array of free-field microphones in order to quantify the effects of the water injection on overall sound pressure level spectra and directivity. The results showed significant reductions in noise levels were possible with optimum conditions corresponding to water injection at or just upstream of the exit plane of the diffuser. Increasing the angle and mass flow rate of water injection also showed improvements in noise reduction. However, a limit on the maximum water flow rate existed as too large of flow rate could result in un-starting the supersonic diffuser.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

Dot junction solar cells

A design of solar cells with reduced junction area on the cell surface is investigated for reduction of saturation current and increase in open-circuit voltage. Equidiameter dot junctions distributed across the surface of the cell offer an efficient alternative, with variations in dot diameter and in the spacing between dots giving the required variations in the ratio of junction area to total surface area. A simplified analysis for short-circuit current and other cell parameters, which enables cell design optimization, is presented. Experimental solar-cell performance results, as functions of different area ratios, are presented and compared with the model. It is shown that saturation current reduction is possible for achieving efficiencies as high as 18 percent in flat-plate terrestrial applications.

Daud, T.↗

Reliable vision-guided grasping

Automated assembly of truss structures in space requires vision-guided servoing for grasping a strut when its position and orientation are uncertain. This paper presents a methodology for efficient and robust vision-guided robot grasping alignment. The vision-guided grasping problem is related to vision-guided 'docking' problems. It differs from other hand-in-eye visual servoing problems such as tracking in that the distance from the target is a relevant servo parameter. The methodology described in this paper is a hierarchy of levels in which the vision/robot interface is decreasingly 'intelligent', and increasingly fast. Speed is achieved primarily by information reduction. This reduction exploits the use of region-of-interest windows in the image plane and feature motion prediction. These reductions invariably require stringent assumptions about the image. Therefore, at a higher level, these assumptions are verified using slower, more reliable methods. This hierarchy provides for robust error recovery in that when a lower-level routine fails, the next-higher routine will be called and so on. A working system is described which visually aligns a robot to grasp a cylindrical strut. The system uses a single camera mounted on the end effector of a robot and requires only crude calibration parameters. The grasping procedure is fast and reliable, with a multi-level error recovery system.

Nicewarner, Keith E.↗

Guidance of Nonlinear Nonminimum-Phase Dynamic Systems

The research work has advanced the inversion-based guidance theory for: systems with non-hyperbolic internal dynamics; systems with parameter jumps; and systems where a redesign of the output trajectory is desired. A technique to achieve output tracking for nonminimum phase linear systems with non-hyperbolic and near non-hyperbolic internal dynamics was developed. This approach integrated stable inversion techniques, that achieve exact-tracking, with approximation techniques, that modify the internal dynamics to achieve desirable performance. Such modification of the internal dynamics was used (a) to remove non-hyperbolicity which is an obstruction to applying stable inversion techniques and (b) to reduce large preactuation times needed to apply stable inversion for near non-hyperbolic cases. The method was applied to an example helicopter hover control problem with near non-hyperbolic internal dynamics for illustrating the trade-off between exact tracking and reduction of preactuation time. Future work will extend these results to guidance of nonlinear non-hyperbolic systems. The exact output tracking problem for systems with parameter jumps was considered. Necessary and sufficient conditions were derived for the elimination of switching-introduced output transient. While previous works had studied this problem by developing a regulator that maintains exact tracking through parameter jumps (switches), such techniques are, however, only applicable to minimum-phase systems. In contrast, our approach is also applicable to nonminimum-phase systems and leads to bounded but possibly non-causal solutions. In addition, for the case when the reference trajectories are generated by an exosystem, we developed an exact-tracking controller which could be written in a feedback form. As in standard regulator theory, we also obtained a linear map from the states of the exosystem to the desired system state, which was defined via a matrix differential equation.

Devasia, Santosh↗

Interior Noise Reduction by Adaptive Feedback Vibration Control

The objective of this project is to investigate the possible use of adaptive digital filtering techniques in simultaneous, multiple-mode identification of the modal parameters of a vibrating structure in real-time. It is intended that the results obtained from this project will be used for state estimation needed in adaptive structural acoustics control. The work done in this project is basically an extension of the work on real-time single mode identification, which was performed successfully using a digital signal processor (DSP) at NASA, Langley. Initially, in this investigation the single mode identification work was duplicated on a different processor, namely the Texas Instruments TMS32OC40 DSP. The system identification results for the single mode case were very good. Then an algorithm for simultaneous two mode identification was developed and tested using analytical simulation. When it successfully performed the expected tasks, it was implemented in real-time on the DSP system to identify the first two modes of vibration of a cantilever aluminum beam. The results of the simultaneous two mode case were good but some problems were identified related to frequency warping and spurious mode identification. The frequency warping problem was found to be due to the bilinear transformation used in the algorithm to convert the system transfer function from the continuous-time domain to the discrete-time domain. An alternative approach was developed to rectify the problem. The spurious mode identification problem was found to be associated with high sampling rates. Noise in the signal is suspected to be the cause of this problem but further investigation will be needed to clarify the cause. For simultaneous identification of more than two modes, it was found that theoretically an adaptive digital filter can be designed to identify the required number of modes, but the algebra became very complex which made it impossible to implement in the DSP system used in this study. The on-line identification algorithm developed in this research will be useful in constructing a state estimator for feedback vibration control.

Lim, Tae W.↗

Error rate reduction of single-qubit gates via noise-aware decomposition into native gates

In the current era of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) technology, the practical use of quantum computers remains inhibited by our inability to aptly decouple qubits from their environment to mitigate computational errors. In this paper, we introduce an approach by which knowledge of a qubit’s initial quantum state and the standard parameters describing its decoherence can be leveraged to mitigate the noise present during the execution of a single-qubit gate. We benchmark our protocol using cloud-based access to IBM quantum processors. On ibmq_rome, we demonstrate a reduction of the single-qubit error rate by 38%, from $1.6 \times 10 ^{-3}$ to $1.0 \times 10 ^{-3}$ , provided the initial state of the input qubit is known. On ibmq_bogota, we prove that our protocol will never decrease gate fidelity, provided the system’s T 1 and T 2 times have not drifted above 100 times their assumed values. The protocol can be used to reduce quantum state preparation errors, as well as to improve the fidelity of quantum circuits for which some knowledge of the qubits’ intermediate states can be inferred. This paper presents a pathway to using information about noise levels and quantum state distributions to significantly reduce error rates associated with quantum gates via optimized decomposition into native hardware gates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Noise Reduction for Solar-Induced Fluorescence Retrievals Using Machine Learning and Principal Component Analysis: Simulations and Applications to GOME-2 Satellite Retrievals

We use a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network (NN) to substantially reduce noise and other artifacts in terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals. SIF is a very small emission at red and far-red wavelengths that is difficult to measure and is highly sensitive to random errors and systematic artifacts. Our approach relies upon an assumption that a trained NN can effectively reconstruct the total SIF signal from a relatively small number of leading principal components of the satellite-observed far-red radiance spectra without using information from the trailing modes that contain most of the random errors. We test the approach with simulated reflectance spectra produced with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model using different observing and geophysical parameters and various noise levels. Resulting noisy and noise-reduced retrieved SIF values are compared with true values to assess performance. We then apply our noise reduction approach to SIF derived from two different satellite spectrometers. For evaluation, since the truth in this case is unknown, we compare SIF retrievals from two independent sensors with each other. We also compare the noise-reduced SIF temporal variations with those from an independent gross primary product (GPP) product that should display similar variations. Results show that our noise reduction approach improves capture of SIF seasonal and inter-annual variability. Our approach should be applicable to many noisy data products derived from spectral measurements. Our methodology does not replace the original retrieval algorithms; rather the original noisy retrievals are needed as the target for the NN training process.

noise reduction, solar-induced fluorescence, SIF, ↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Calibration and Data Reduction of Multi-Hole Probes

This work presents procedures for implementing machine learning methods into existing algorithms for multi-hole probe calibration and data reduction. It demonstrates that using artificial neural networks (ANNs) can decrease the amount of calibration data needed to achieve a specific calibration uncertainty by over 50%, while also significantly reducing data reduction times. Instead of surface fitting methods, ANNs are employed. Initially, directional calibration coefficients related to flow angles are computed based on pressure measurements, and then these flow angles serve as input parameters for subsequent ANNs to iteratively define Mach number, static pressure, and total pressure. In an alternative approach, new calibration coefficients directly relate pressure measurements from the five-hole probe to the quantities of interest, thereby eliminating the need for iterative algorithms used in conventional surface fitting methods. This method offers several advantages: an average increase of less than 1%in calibration uncertainty for flow angles and a significant reduction in data reduction times to a few seconds on average. Additionally, the methodology is confirmed to avoid both over- and under-fitting.

Machine Learning↗

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗

Oscillating surge wave energy converter using a novel above-water power takeoff with belt-arc speed amplification

We investigate the performance of a novel power takeoff (PTO) featuring belt-arc speed amplification for oscillating surge wave energy converters (OSWECs), aiming to address the challenges of extremely low rotary speed and large torque under the low-frequency ocean wave excitations. The belt-arc design significantly increases the rotary speed of the generator, enabling generator downsizing and decreasing the powertrain friction losses. The design also allows for placing the generator above water, eliminating the need for high Ingress Protection ratings for the generator and powertrain, and potentially leading to substantial reductions in capital and maintenance costs. Using the linear potential wave theory, the dynamics of the integrated system are analyzed, and key parameters are identified. To validate the numerical analysis, a 1:10 scale model is designed, fabricated, and tested in a wave tank. Performance evaluations are conducted under regular and irregular wave conditions, with quantified effects of parameter tuning. The results reveal an optimal wave-to-electric efficiency of 48% under regular wave excitation and 20% under irregular excitation. Furthermore, these findings underscore the effectiveness of the proposed novel PTO design in addressing the challenges of low rotation speed and large torque inherent in OSWECs, demonstrating its ability to efficiently convert wave power into electricity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Overcoming significant challenges in extracting off-stoichiometric thermodynamics using the compound energy formalism through complementary use of experimental and first principles data: A case study of Ba 1-x Sr x FeO 3-δ

The compound energy formalism (CEF) is a powerful framework to describe the thermodynamics of metal oxides as a function of off-stoichiometry, temperature, and composition. The thermodynamic properties are crucial materials design attributes in metal oxide-based oxygen-exchange chemical processes. Despite the richness of information an accurate CEF model provides, a method to determine a unique and accurate fit for oxygen exchange materials remains elusive. This contribution details a method for fitting the CEF model that overcomes the current fitting challenges through three innovations: 1) the combination of density functional theory calculations with experimental data decorrelates excess terms and delineates the enthalpic/entropic contributions to the Gibbs free energy; 2) a systematic determination of the important CEF model terms, removing thermodynamic predetermining human intervention; 3) a self-consistent solution of the starting oxygen offstoichiometry (δ 0 ) of thermogravimetric measurements. Thus, our method enables the reliable extraction of off-stoichiometric metal oxide thermodynamic properties and facilitates rapid materials compositional screening, and reliable process design of systems dependent on off-stoichiometric redox-active metal oxides. We apply this method to a Ba x Sr 1-x FeO 3-δ test case. We find by systematically examining the performance of the CEF model fit with and without each innovation that all three innovations are necessary for an accurate fit. We determined that reduction enthalpy is higher and more sensitive to off-stoichiometry when the Sr fraction is large (139.5 and 185.3 kJ/mol O 2 for SrFeO 3 at δ = 0 and δ = 0.5, respectively vs. nearly constant 83 kJ/mol O 2 for BaFeO 3 ). However, the reduction entropy is mostly insensitive to Sr fraction, but highly dependent on δ suggesting larger contributions in the non-configurational entropy parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Estimating Energy Bounds for Adoption of Shared Micromobility

Shared micromobility has garnered widespread popularity in recent years, but limited attention has been given to the energy impacts of trips replaced by micromobility. This paper investigates the energy bounds of shared micromobility adoption. Travel demand data at the national and city level were analyzed to identify trips that can be served through micromobility, and scenarios with varying levels of micromobility adoption were evaluated. Results show that peak adoption of shared micromobility can reduce energy consumption from reported passenger travel by 1% at the national level and 2.6% at the city level, with micromobility-induced transit trips identified as the largest contributor for energy reduction. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to show how the energy impacts would change with various levels of key micromobility-related parameters, and results show distance threshold having a stronger influence on the energy impacts, compared to redistribution energy intensity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Enabling Microscale Processing: Combined Raman and Absorbance Spectroscopy for Microfluidic On-Line Monitoring

Microfluidics have many potential applications including characterization of chemical processes on a reduced scale, spanning the study of reaction kinetics using on-chip liquid–liquid extractions, sample pretreatment to simplify off-chip analysis, and for portable spectroscopic analyses. The use of in situ characterization of process streams from laboratory-scale and microscale experiments on the same chemical system can provide comprehensive understanding and in-depth analysis of any similarities or differences between process conditions at different scales. A well-characterized extraction of Nd(NO 3 ) 3 from an aqueous phase of varying NO 3– (aq) concentration with tributyl phosphate (TBP) in dodecane was the focus of this microscale study and was compared to an earlier laboratory-scale study utilizing counter current extraction equipment. Here, we verify that this same extraction process can be followed on the microscale using spectroscopic methods adapted for microfluidic measurement. Concentration of Nd (based on UV–vis) and nitrate (based on Raman) was chemometrically measured during the flow experiment, and resulting data were used to determine the distribution ratio for Nd. Extraction distributions measured on the microscale were compared favorably with those determined on the laboratory scale in the earlier study. Both micro-Raman and micro-UV–vis spectroscopy can be used to determine fundamental parameters with significantly reduced sample size as compared to traditional laboratory-scale approaches. This leads naturally to time, cost, and waste reductions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Molecular and biochemical characterization of rice developed through conventional integration of nDart1-0 transposon gene

Mutations, the genetic variations in genomic sequences, play an important role in molecular biology and biotechnology. During DNA replication or meiosis, one of the mutations is transposons or jumping genes. An indigenous transposon nDart1-0 was successfully introduced into local indica cultivar Basmati-370 from transposon-tagged line viz., GR-7895 (japonica genotype) through conventional breeding technique, successive backcrossing. Plants from segregating populationsshowed variegated phenotypes were tagged as BM-37 mutants. Blast analysis of the sequence data revealed that the GTP-binding protein, located on the BAC clone OJ1781_H11 of chromosome 5, contained an insertion of DNA transposon nDart1-0. The nDart1-0 has “A” at position 254 bp, whereas nDart1 homologs have “G”, which efficiently distinguishes nDart1-0 from its homologs. The histological analysis revealed that the chloroplast of mesophyll cells in BM-37 was disrupted with reduction in size of starch granules and higher number of osmophillic plastoglobuli, which resulted in decreased chlorophyll contents and carotenoids, gas exchange parameters (Pn, g, E, Ci), and reduced expression level of genes associated with chlorophyll biosynthesis, photosynthesis and chloroplast development. Along with the rise of GTP protein, the salicylic acid (SA) and gibberellic acid (GA) and antioxidant contents(SOD) and MDA levels significantly enhanced, while, the cytokinins (CK), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), catalase (CAT), total flavanoid contents (TFC) and total phenolic contents (TPC) significantly reduced in BM-37 mutant plants as compared with WT plants. These results support the notion that GTP-binding proteins influence the process underlying chloroplast formation. Therefore, it is anticipated that to combat biotic or abiotic stress conditions, the nDart1-0 tagged mutant (BM-37) of Basmati-370 would be beneficial.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tearing Stable Stationary ITER Baseline Operation in DIII-D

We present a tearing stable, stationary and reproducible operating solution for DIII-D plasmas characterized by the ITER Baseline Scenario normalized parameter set and shape. In these plasmas low differential rotation (Δf1,2) between the core and edge is identified as the single root cause of the onset of the primary limiting instability, the 2,1 Neoclassical Tearing Mode (NTM), while a group of other examined parameters have a much weaker impact on the stability. Explanation is offered by drift kinetic simulations, which show a six-fold reduction in the NTM onset threshold due to diminished stabilizing ion polarization currents when the seed island drift frequency ceases in the local plasma frame. Based on the experimental observation and the explanation provided by the theory, a new method is developed to sustain Δf1,2 by modifying the edge neoclassical potential through neutral gas fueling. This method enables stationary ITER baseline operation free of disruptive 2,1 tearing modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Decoding the shift-invariant data: applications for band-excitation scanning probe microscopy *

A shift-invariant variational autoencoder (shift-VAE) is developed as an unsupervised method for the analysis of spectral data in the presence of shifts along the parameter axis, disentangling the physically-relevant shifts from other latent variables. Using synthetic data sets, we show that the shift-VAE latent variables closely match the ground truth parameters. The shift VAE is extended towards the analysis of band-excitation piezoresponse force microscopy data, disentangling the resonance frequency shifts from the peak shape parameters in a model-free unsupervised manner. The extensions of this approach towards denoising of data and model-free dimensionality reduction in imaging and spectroscopic data are further demonstrated. This approach is universal and can also be extended to analysis of x-ray diffraction, photoluminescence, Raman spectra, and other data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗