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At least 775 records · Page 43

Field intercomparison of ice nucleation measurements: the Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation Phase 3 (FIN-03)

Abstract. The third phase of the Fifth International Ice Nucleation Workshop (FIN-03) was conducted at the Storm Peak Laboratory in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, in September 2015 to facilitate the intercomparison of instruments measuring ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the field. Instruments included two online and four offline measurement systems for INPs, which are a subset of those utilized in the laboratory study that comprised the second phase of FIN (FIN-02). The composition of the total aerosols was characterized using the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS) and Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS) instruments, and aerosol size distributions were measured by a laser aerosol spectrometer (LAS). The dominant total particle compositions present during FIN-03 were composed of sulfates, organic compounds, and nitrates, as well as particles derived from biomass burning. Mineral-dust-containing particles were ubiquitous throughout and represented 67 % of supermicron particles. Total WIBS fluorescing particle concentrations for particles with diameters of > 0.5 µm were 0.04 ± 0.02 cm−3 (0.1 cm−3 highest; 0.02 cm−3 lowest), typical of the warm season in this region and representing ≈ 9 % of all particles in this size range as a campaign average. The primary focus of FIN-03 was the measurement of INP concentrations via immersion freezing at temperatures > −33 °C. Additionally, some measurements were made in the deposition nucleation regime at these same temperatures, representing one of the first efforts to include both mechanisms within a field campaign. INP concentrations via immersion freezing agreed within factors ranging from nearly 1 to 5 times on average between matched (time and temperature) measurements, and disagreements only rarely exceeded 1 order of magnitude for sampling times coordinated to within 3 h. Comparisons were restricted to temperatures lower than −15 °C due to the limits of detection related to sample volumes and very low INP concentrations. Outliers of up to 2 orders of magnitude occurred between −25 and −18 °C; a better agreement was seen at higher and lower temperatures. Although the 5–10 factor agreement of INP measurements found in FIN-03 aligned with the results of the FIN-02 laboratory comparison phase, giving confidence in progress of this measurement field, this level of agreement still equates to temperature uncertainties of 3.5 to 5 °C that may not be sufficient for numerical cloud modeling applications that utilize INP information. INP activity in the immersion-freezing mode was generally found to be an order of magnitude or more, making it more efficient than in the deposition regime at 95 %–99 % water relative humidity, although this limited data set should be augmented in future efforts. To contextualize the study results, an assessment was made of the composition of INPs during the late-summer to early-fall period of this study inferred through comparison to existing ice nucleation parameterizations and through measurement of the influence of thermal and organic carbon digestion treatments on immersion-freezing ice nucleation activity. Consistent with other studies in continental regions, biological INPs dominated at temperatures of > −20 °C and sometimes colder, while arable dust-like or other organic-influenced INPs were inferred to dominate below −20 °C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗

Sulfur Poisoning and Performance Recovery of SOFC Air Electrodes

The sulfur poisoning and performance recovery of the state-of-the-art SOFC cathodes (La 0 . 80 Sr 0 . 20 ) 0 . 95 MnO 3 ± δ (LSM) and (La 0 . 60 Sr 0 . 40 ) 0 . 95 Co 0 . 20 Fe 0 . 80 O 3 – δ (LSCF), have been studied. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements of LSCF|GDC and LSM|YSZ half-cells are carried out in alternating atmospheres of air and SO 2 –air at 700°C for hundreds of hours. In the presence of SO 2 , the electrochemical performance of both the cells decays with ohmic and non-ohmic losses, owing to the absorption and chemical interaction of SO 2 with the electrodes. In LSCF, the SrO segregated on the surface tends to absorb and react with SO 2 , forming SrSO 4 followed by the exsolution of Co-Fe. As for LSM, SO 2 is absorbed onto the Sr-rich areas of LSM, including the active reaction sites near the TPBs, leading to Sr exsolution and SrSO 4 formation, leaving a Sr-deficient LSM. During the subsequent exposure to air, the performance of the sulfur-contaminated LSM is almost restored. The LSM particles, exposed to alternating atmospheres of air and SO 2 -air during the electrochemical tests, show a relatively clean surface with sparsely distributed SrSO 4 particles, indicating a high stability against sulfur poisoning. It is suggested that the loosely adsorbed SO 2 at the TPBs is readily swept away by the SO 2 -free air flow, recovering its ORR activity, whereas the Sr-deficient LSM due to Sr-exsolution stays modified, contributing to the incomplete performance restoration. Unlike the case of LSM, the performance of the sulfur-poisoned LSCF partially recovers during the subsequent exposure to air. Correspondingly, the LSCF particles have a modified morphology covered with numerous nanoparticles, mostly SrSO 4 , showing the irreversible aspect of the sulfur poisoning. The morphology modification is not concentrated near the electrode/electrolyte interface but over the entire cathode, indicating that the degree of recovery from sulfur poisoning is closely related to the presence of SrO and chemical activity of Sr in the electrodes at the solid-gas interface. These results also show the potential application of LSM for a sulfur sensor available in high-temperature harsh conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Practical CO2—WAG Field Operational Designs Using Hybrid Numerical-Machine-Learning Approaches

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low computational overheads. The history-matching work considers the heterogeneities of multiphase relative characteristics, and the CO2-WAG injection design takes multiple techno-economic objective functions into accounts. This work trained an expert response surface, a support vector machine, and a multi-layer neural network as proxy models to effectively learn the high-dimensional nonlinear data structure. The proposed workflow suggests revisiting the high-fidelity numerical simulator for validation purposes. The experience gained from this work would provide valuable guiding insights to similar CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Oxidation and Associated Pore Structure Modification During Experimental Alteration of Granite

Weathering plays a crucial role in a number of environmental processes, and the microstructure and evolution of multi-scale pore space is a critically important factor in the weathering of geological formations. In igneous rocks the infiltration of meteoric water into initially relatively dry material can cause the rock to begin to disaggregate, increasing porosity and surface area, and allowing further disaggregation and weathering to occur. These processes, in turn, allow biota to colonize the rock, further enhancing the weathering rate. In some igneous rocks this may be driven by oxidation of primary minerals. One such mineral, biotite, has been repeatedly mentioned as a cause of cracking during oxidation. However, the scale-dependence of the processes by which this occurs are poorly understood. We cannot, therefore, accurately extrapolate laboratory reaction rates to the field in predictive numerical models. In order to better understand the effects of oxidation and test the hypothesis that fracture and disaggregation are initiated by swelling of oxidizing biotites, we reacted granite cores in a selenic acid-rich aqueous solution at 200°C for up to 438 days. Elevated temperatures and selenic acid were used to provide relatively fast reaction rates and highly oxidizing conditions in sealed reaction vessels. These experiments were analyzed using a combination of imaging, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and small- and ultra-small angle neutron scattering to interrogate porosity and microfracture formation. The experimental results show little observable biotite swelling, but significant transport and growth of iron oxides and/or clays along grain boundaries throughout the sample. Significant increases in porosity were also observed at the sample rim, likely associated with feldspar alteration. Fractures and transport were observed throughout the core, suggesting that stresses due to crystallization pressures caused by the growing iron phases may be the initiating factors in granite weathering, possibly followed by biotite swelling after sufficient permeability is achieved.

Anovitz, Lawrence M.↗

Massively parallel axisymmetric fluid model for streamer discharges

A highly parallelizable fluid plasma simulation tool based upon the first-order drift-diffusion equations is discussed. Atmospheric pressure plasmas have densities and gradients that require small element sizes in order to accurately simulate the plasm resulting in computational meshes on the order of millions to tens of millions of elements for realistic size plasma reactors. To enable simulations of this nature, parallel computing is required and must be optimized for the particular problem. Here, a finite-volume, electrostatic drift-diffusion implementation for low-temperature plasma is discussed. The implementation is built upon the Message Passing Interface (MPI) library in C++ using Object Oriented Programming. The underlying numerical method is outlined in detail and benchmarked against simple streamer formation from other streamer codes. Electron densities, electric field, and propagation speeds are compared with the reference case and show good agreement. Convergence studies are also performed showing a minimal space step of approximately 4 μm required to reduce relative error to below 1% during early streamer simulation times and even finer space steps are required for longer times. Additionally, strong and weak scaling of the implementation are studied and demonstrate the excellent performance behavior of the implementation up to 100 million elements on 1024 processors. Lastly, different advection schemes are compared for the simple streamer problem to analyze the influence of numerical diffusion on the resulting quantities of interest.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An extended trajectory-mechanics approach for calculating two-phase flow paths

A technique originating in quantum dynamics is used to derive a trajectory-based, semi-analytical solution for two-phase flow. The partial differential equation governing the evolution of the aqueous phase is equivalent to a family of ordinary differential equations defined along a path through the porous medium. The trajectories may be found by solving the differential equations directly or by post-processing the output of a numerical solution to the full set of governing equations. The trajectories, which differ from conventional streamlines, are found to bend downward in response to gravitational forces. The curvature is more pronounced as the dip of the porous layer containing the flow increases. Subtle changes in the relative permeability curve can lead to significant variations in the trajectories. The ordinary differential equation for the trajectory provides an expression for the travel time along the path. The expression produces a semi-analytical approximation to the model parameter sensitivities, the partial derivatives of the travel times with respect to changes in the permeability model. The semi-analytical trajectory-based sensitivities generally agree with those computed using a numerical reservoir simulator and a perturbation approach. The sensitivities are useful in tomographic imaging algorithms designed to estimate the spatial variation in permeability within a porous medium using multiphase observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interaction of cosmological domain walls with large classical objects, like planets and satellites, and the flyby anomaly

Cosmological domain walls can be formed as a result of symmetry breaking at any epoch during the evolution of our universe. We study their interaction with a classical macroscopic object, like Earth or a satellite in Earth’s orbit. We set up an action that includes the interaction term between the massive classical object and the scalar field that the domain wall is made of. We use numerical calculations to solve the coupled equations of motion which describe the crossing between the domain wall and the classical object. Depending on the strength of the interaction, relative velocity and size, the object can be either stopped by the wall, or it can pass through it inducing deformations in the wall that cost energy. At the same time, the coupling to the scalar filed might change the object’s mass during the crossover. The fact that satellites in Earth’s orbit (or planets in Sun’s orbit) can change their mass and/or lose energy interacting with walls can be used as a new domain wall detection probe. For example, a typical velocity precision of a satellite is about 0.5 mm/s, which directly puts an upper limit on its mass change to ΔM/M ≲ 5 × 10 –17 . Alternatively, a known satellite flyby anomaly can easily be explained as an interaction with a closed domain wall. We also show that the presence of matter modifies the scalar filed potential and can locally create a bubble of the true vacuum, and thus trigger the decay of the false vacuum. For a critical bubble which is able to expand, such an interaction with the domain wall must be strong enough.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Volcanic electrification: recent advances and future perspectives

Abstract The electrification of volcanic plumes has been described intermittently since at least the time of Pliny the Younger and the 79 AD eruption of Vesuvius. Although sometimes disregarded in the past as secondary effects, recent work suggests that the electrical properties of volcanic plumes reveal intrinsic and otherwise inaccessible parameters of explosive eruptions. An increasing number of volcanic lightning studies across the last decade have shown that electrification is ubiquitous in volcanic plumes. Technological advances in engineering and numerical modelling, paired with close observation of recent eruptions and dedicated laboratory studies (shock-tube and current impulse experiments), show that charge generation and electrical activity are related to the physical, chemical, and dynamic processes underpinning the eruption itself. Refining our understanding of volcanic plume electrification will continue advancing the fundamental understanding of eruptive processes to improve volcano monitoring. Realizing this goal, however, requires an interdisciplinary approach at the intersection of volcanology, atmospheric science, atmospheric electricity, and engineering. Our paper summarizes the rapid and steady progress achieved in recent volcanic lightning research and provides a vision for future developments in this growing field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydro-mechanical coupled modeling of hydraulic fracturing using the mesh fragmentation technique

The inclusion of special interface elements between standard finite elements is becoming a common technique to model discontinuities in porous media using the finite element method (FEM). Recently, it was proved that high aspect ratio (HAR) elements can reproduce very satisfactorily the main features of behavior observed in a single hydraulically-induced fracture. In this paper, the mesh fragmentation technique (MFT) is proposed to extend the application of HAR elements to simulate more general problems involving the formation of hydraulic fractures in rocks by introducing this type of element in-between the standard FE of a typical mesh. The proposed framework makes use of standard FE techniques. Therefore, it is relatively easy to upgrade an existing FE program for continuous porous media to deal with evolving discontinuities. The proposed approach is verified and validated against available analytical and numerical solutions. The crack patterns predicted by the MFT are also compared with the ones observed in the laboratory. The formation of multiple fractures is also analyzed. In all cases, the proposed technique was able to properly capture the main features of rock behavior subjected to hydraulic fracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A unified finite strain gradient-enhanced micropolar continuum approach for modeling quasi-brittle failure of cohesive-frictional materials

Here, in this work, a novel framework for modeling quasi-brittle crack propagation and shear band dominated failure of cohesive-frictional materials like concrete, mortar, rock, tough ceramics, energetic materials, but also granular materials like sands or powders in terms of a unified continuum approach is proposed. It is based on a combination of the gradient-enhanced continuum with gradients of internal variables for representing quasi-brittle cracking, and the micropolar continuum, accounting for the deformation of the microstructure. For developing the gradient-enhanced micropolar framework, the set of balance equations and the kinematic relations are derived, and the constitutive relations are established in a general manner. The framework is formulated in a geometrically exact setting, based on the thermodynamically sound theory of hyperelasto-plasticity, and the numerical implementation by means of the finite element method is discussed. For assessing the approach, realizations of this new approach in terms of constitutive models for particular materials are developed. They are applied to numerical benchmark examples, investigating various loading conditions, and the obtained results are validated by means of a comparison with experiments from the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Performance evaluation of surface riding wave energy converter with linear electric generator

In this work, we devised a new WEC (wave energy converter) called SR-WEC (Surface Riding WEC). The SR-WEC consists of two bodies: the outer cylinder with an armature assembly (body #1) and a magnet assembly (body #2) sliding inside the armature. For the SR-WEC, the relative sliding displacement and velocity are caused by gravity acceleration and the outer cylinder's motions, and they lead to electrical power generation. To evaluate its performance, a numerical simulation tool was developed, which solves the fully-coupled floater-mooring-generator dynamics. During the developing stage, the appropriate hydrodynamics model, sliding mechanics model, mooring dynamics model, and LEG (linear electric generator) electro-magnetic model were independently developed and then fully coupled in time domain to account for the cross-coupling interactions among them. Then, the developed simulation tool was verified component by component against various laboratory tests. Subsequently, systematic parametric studies were conducted with several important design parameters under various wave conditions to enhance power generation. After that, the average output power was evaluated in enlarged operational wave conditions. The present SR-WEC is particularly designed to be efficient at low sea states, which is good since they cover the majority of typical annual sea states.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Direct Observation of Solvent–Reaction Intermediate Interactions in Heterogeneously Catalyzed Alcohol Coupling

The relative stability of reactive intermediates and reactants on a surface, which dictates the rate and selectivity of catalytic reactions in both gas and liquid phases, is dependent on numerous factors. One well-established example is secondary interactions, such as van der Waals interactions between the catalyst surface and the pendant group of the intermediate, which can govern reaction selectivity for coupling reactions. In this work, we directly show that interactions between adsorbed reaction intermediates and reactant molecules increase the binding energy and affects the geometrical arrangement of coadsorbed reactant/solvent molecules. Evidence for this effect is demonstrated for the oxidative coupling reaction of methanol on a single crystal gold (Au(110)) surface. The rate-limiting reaction intermediate for methanol selfcoupling, methoxy, stabilizes excess adsorbed methanol, which desorbs as a result of beta-hydride decomposition of the adsorbed methoxy. Direct molecular-scale imaging by scanning tunneling microscopy, supplemented by density functional theory, revealed interactive structures formed by methoxy and coadsorbed methanol. Interactions between the methoxy intermediate and coadsorbed methanol stabilizes a hydrogen-bonded network comprising methoxy and methanol by a minimum of 0.13 eV per methanol molecule. Inclusion of such interactions between reaction intermediates and coadsorbed reactants and solvents in kinetic models is important for microkinetic analysis of the rates and selectivities of catalytic reactions in both the gas and liquid phases whenever appreciable coverages of species from the ambient phase exist.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crystal structure and polymorphic forms of auranofin revisited

Auranofin, initially developed as a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, is currently under extensive investigation as a potential drug for various conditions, including cancer, bacterial infections, and parasitic infections. The compound is a known inhibitor of thioredoxin reductase (TXNRD1) and related selenoproteins. Although preliminary studies on the auranofin crystal polymorphism exist, and a low-quality crystal structure has been reported, a comprehensive crystallographic characterization remains unexplored. Utilizing X-ray crystallography techniques, we conducted detailed structural analysis of auranofin and compared our findings with related organogold compounds. Implementation of Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR) enabled a more accurate hydrogen atom positioning in the structure. The crystal packing reveals a layered arrangement stabilised by numerous weak hydrogen bonds and dispersive interactions. Notably, our attempts to reproduce the previously reported polymorphic form of auranofin, purportedly more water-soluble, were unsuccessful despite following published protocols. To our knowledge, this is the first study describing a “disappearing polymorph” phenomenon of any pharmaceutically relevant transition metal coordination compound. Our findings may have significant implications for medicinal chemistry and pharmacology of coordination complexes, suggesting the need for systematic revision of historical crystallographic data in this field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-accuracy emulators for observables in ΛCDM, N eff, Σ m ν, and w cosmologies

ABSTRACT We use the emulation framework CosmoPower to construct and publicly release neural network emulators of cosmological observables, including the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra, matter power spectrum, distance-redshift relation, baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and redshift-space distortion (RSD) observables, and derived parameters. We train our emulators on Einstein–Boltzmann calculations obtained with high-precision numerical convergence settings, for a wide range of cosmological models including ΛCDM, wCDM, ΛCDM + Neff, and ΛCDM + Σmν. Our CMB emulators are accurate to better than 0.5 per cent out to ℓ = 104, which is sufficient for Stage-IV data analysis, and our P(k) emulators reach the same accuracy level out to $k=50 \, \, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, which is sufficient for Stage-III data analysis. We release the emulators via an online repository (CosmoPower Organisation), which will be continually updated with additional extended cosmological models. Our emulators accelerate cosmological data analysis by orders of magnitude, enabling cosmological parameter extraction analyses, using current survey data, to be performed on a laptop. We validate our emulators by comparing them to class and camb and by reproducing cosmological parameter constraints derived from Planck TT, TE, EE, and CMB lensing data, as well as from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 4 CMB data, Dark Energy Survey Year-1 galaxy lensing and clustering data, and Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 12 BAO and RSD data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Fluctuating intertwined stripes in the strange metal regime of the Hubbard model

Strongly correlated electron systems host a variety of poorly understood correlations in their high-temperature normal state. Unlike ordered phases defined by order parameters, regions of the normal state are often defined through unconventional properties such as strange metallic transport or spectroscopic pseudogaps. Characterizing the microscopic correlations in the normal state is necessary to elucidate mechanisms that lead to these properties and their connection to ground-state orders. Here, in this paper, we establish the presence of intertwined charge and spin stripes in the strange metal normal state of the Hubbard model using determinant quantum Monte Carlo calculations. The charge and spin density waves constituting the stripes are fluctuating and short ranged; yet they obey a mutual commensurability relation and remain microscopically interlocked, as evidenced through measurements of three-point spin-spin-hole correlation functions. Our findings demonstrate the ability of many-body numerical simulations to unravel the microscopic correlations that define quantum states of matter.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Design Optimization of Medium-Frequency Transformer for DAB Converters With DC Bias Capacity

Medium-frequency transformer (MFT) dc bias is critical for the safe operation of dual-active-bridge (DAB) converters. To analyze the dc bias, expressions of dc bias are derived for SiC MOSFET DAB converters. It shows that the dc bias is a current source in steady state; thus, a dc bias current capacity is defined and used as a design constraint in the optimization of MFT. The dc bias current capacity is related to core materials, geometric parameters, and flux density, which is analyzed with analytical expression. Optimization equations with geometric variables are derived, which can be solved theoretically or numerically for both interleaved winding (IW) and separated winding (SW) MFT without and/or with leakage inductance design. Based on the optimization equations, different MFT designs for a 150-kW SiC MOSFET DAB converter are compared on the aspects of core materials, winding structures, and without/with leakage inductance design. The combination of IW structure MFT with auxiliary phase shift inductors is chosen, and the assembled prototype is tested with the 150-kW DAB converter. Here, the designed dc bias capacity, temperature rise, and efficiency are verified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Criticality in the Shallow-to-Deep Transition of Simulated Tropical Marine Convection

Idealized simulations of tropical, marine convection depict shallow, nonprecipitating cumuli located beneath the 0°C level transitioning into cumulonimbi that reach up to 12 km and higher. The timing of the transition was only weakly related to environmental stability, and 13 of the 15 simulations run with 5 different lapse-rate profiles had rain develop at nearly the same time after model start. The key quantity that apparently controlled deep convective formation was vertical acceleration inside cloudy updrafts between cloud base and the 0°C level. Below a critical value of updraft vertical acceleration, little rainfall occurred. Just as the domain-mean updraft acceleration reached the critical value, the first convection quickly grew to past 12 km altitude. Then, as acceleration increased above the critical value, rain rate averaged in the model domain increased quickly over about a 3-h-long period. The specific value of the critical updraft acceleration depended on how updrafts were defined and in what layer the acceleration was averaged; however, regardless of how criticality was defined, a robust relationship between domain-mean updraft vertical acceleration and rain rate occurred. Positive acceleration of updrafts below the 0°C level was present below 2.75 km and was largest in the 500 m above cloud base. However, the maximum difference between updraft and environmental temperatures occurred between 2 and 3 km. The domain-mean Archimedean buoyancy of updrafts relative to some reference state was a poor predictor for domain-mean rain rate. In conclusion, the exact value of the critical updraft acceleration likely depends on numerous other factors that were not investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗