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Importance of Radiative Transfer Models in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a significant role in the development of satellite instruments for remote sensing applications. These models simulate electromagnetic radiation's propagation through the atmosphere, providing valuable insights into atmosphere-radiation interactions. RTMs facilitate the optimization of satellite instrument designs, ensuring their ability to measure targeted atmospheric and surface properties accurately. Moreover, they aid in simulating instrument’s measurements under various atmospheric conditions, enabling calibration and validation processes to enhance data quality and reliability. RTMs are extensively used in the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), to generate synthetic observations. By incorporating RTMs into OSSE, we can assess the potential impact of future satellite missions, sensor configurations, and data assimilation techniques. This approach allows for the optimization of satellite instruments and constellations and the evaluation of their influence on weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other Earth science applications. Another crucial application area of RT models is data assimilation, where they play a fundamental role in combining satellite observations with numerical models to improve atmospheric and environmental predictions. RTMs provide the link between observed radiances and atmospheric parameters, enhancing the accuracy of numerical models and generating more reliable forecasts for weather events, air quality assessments, and climate projections. Moreover, adapting RT models to capture the intricate radiation interactions within the Planetary Boundary Layer will significantly contribute to improving weather forecasting and climate change projections. Current community radiative transfer (RT) models are primarily developed and optimized for operational data assimilation of satellite observations. These models excel at assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecast accuracy. However, their focus on data assimilation limits their suitability for other important applications, such as satellite instrument development, OSSE, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) studies. Moreover, for PBL studies, RT models need to be adapted to capture the intricate radiation interactions within this crucial atmospheric layer. Developing RT models that can represent the PBL's unique characteristics, such as surface interactions, will contribute significantly to understanding and predicting weather phenomena, air quality, and climate dynamics. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of RT models and highlights their limitations concerning satellite instrument development, OSSE, and PBL studies. Addressing these shortcomings requires concerted efforts to enhance RT models' capabilities and expand their applications beyond data assimilation. By investing in research and development to improve these

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRS1984

Theoretical Modeling for Numerical Weather Prediction

The goal is to utilize predictability theory and numerical experimentation to identify and understand some of the dynamical processes which must be modeled more realistically if large-scale numerical weather predictions are to be improved. The emphasis is on the use of relatively simple models to exlore the properties of physically comprehensive general circulation models (GCM's). A global linear quasi-geostrophic model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) GCM were used to investigate several mechanisms which are responsible for the decay of large-scale forecast skill in mid-latitude numerical weather predictions. Five-day forecasts for an ensemble of cases were made using First GARP Global Experiment data. It was found that forecast skill depends crucially on the specification of the stationary forcing. A lack of stationary forcing leads to spurious westwad propagation of the ultralong waves. Forecasts made with stationary forcings derived from climatological data are superior to those using forcings inferred from observations immediately preceding the forecast period. Interhemispheric forecast differences were analyzed, and the model errors were compared to errors of a simple persistence-damped-to-climatology scheme and to errors of the GLAS GCM.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Finite-element models of continental extension

Numerical models of the initial deformation of extending continental lithosphere, computed to investigate the control of preexisting thermal and mechanical heterogeneities on the style of deformation, are presented. The finite element method is used to calculate deformation with a viscoelastic-plastic model for the lithosphere. Comparisons of the results of analytic models and finite-element models using this method show that good results may be obtained by the numerical technique, even with elements containing both brittle and viscoelastic sampling points. It is shown that the gross style of initial extensional deformation is controlled by the depth and width of the initial heterogeneity which localizes deformation.

Lynch, H. David↗

NASA NTRS1993

An Analytical Study of Dilution Jet Mixing in a Cylindrical Duct

The mixing performance in a mixing section of a rich burn/quick mix/lean burn (RQL) combustor was calculated using a 3-D numerical model in a non-reacting environment. The numerically calculated results were compared with the measured data reported by Hatch, Sowa, Samuelsen, and Holdeman, 1992. The numerical 3-D temperature fields qualitatively agree with the experimental data. Also, the development of the mixing flow and temperature non-uniformity trends throughout the mixing section for the numerically calculated results quantitatively agree with the measured data. The numerical model predicts less mixing and enhances the temperature gradients as compared to the measured data for the cases reported by Hatch et al. (1992) which include circular and slot orifice shapes (with different slant angles and aspect ratios). The predicted and measured results generally agree in the selection of the slanted slot orifice configuration yielding the best overall mixing performance (based on temperature uniformity) of all the configurations analyzed.

Oechsle, V. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An analytical study of dilution jet mixing in a cylindrical duct

Oechsle, V. L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true for areas with lower GVF in the SPoRT model runs. These differences in the heating and evaporation rates produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for the selected severe weather case examined.

Bell, Jordan R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Microwave (SSM/I) Estimates of the Precipitation Rate to Improve Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts

Delay in the spin-up of precipitation early in numerical atmospheric forecasts is a deficiency correctable by diabatic initialization combined with diabatic forcing. For either to be effective requires some knowledge of the magnitude and vertical placement of the latent heating fields. Until recently the best source of cloud and rain water data was the remotely sensed vertical integrated precipitation rate or liquid water content. Vertical placement of the condensation remains unknown. Some information about the vertical distribution of the heating rates and precipitating liquid water and ice can be obtained from retrieval techniques that use a physical model of precipitating clouds to refine and improve the interpretation of the remotely sensed data. A description of this procedure and an examination of its 3-D liquid water products, along with improved modeling methods that enhance or speed-up storm development is discussed.

Raymond, William H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computational capacity in hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation applied to simulate the dynamic response of floating offshore wind turbines

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) mitigates similitude distortions in model-scale tests of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) by coupling physical experiments with numerical models in real time. The coupling requires faster-than-real-time numerical computations to satisfy temporal similitude with the physical experiment, presenting a bottleneck for using more complex numerical models in RTHS. This paper presents a hydrodynamic-RTHS (hydro-RTHS) framework for FOWTs that simulates the hydrodynamics physically and the aerodynamics numerically with sensor feedback from the physical testing. The framework adapts the three-loop hardware architecture to leverage greater computational resources and mitigate strict temporal requirements, enabling more computationally demanding numerical analyses in hydro-RTHS. The three-loop hardware architecture integrates multiple machines, each dedicated to either numerical analysis or RTHS controls, with a rate-transition algorithm to synchronize the tasks executed across the different machine processors. Virtual and physical tests verified and validated the hydro-RTHS framework, respectively. The ”virtual” tests, which approximates the physical domain numerically, verified the RTHS framework with respect to a numerical full-scale complete FOWT model simulated in the open-source software, OpenFAST. The virtual tests were able to maintain comparable control signals while enabling greater computational resources for the numerical calculations. Real-world physical tests demonstrated that the hydro-RTHS framework computes aerodynamic forces similar to the complete OpenFAST model, validating the hydro-RTHS framework using the three-loop hardware architecture. Findings show that the hydro-RTHS framework with the three-loop hardware architecture is computationally efficient, with reserve capacity to simulate more complex problems due to the customized software, hardware, and rate-transition algorithm.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER Technical Support for Aquantis (Modeling): Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-21-17763

NREL will provide numerical modelling support to Requestor by completing four successive stages of numerical modeling effort which are capable of accurate predicting the performance of the Aquantis turbine. NREL will develop a baseline OpenFAST model (a couple model of AeroDyn and ElastoDyn solver) of the Aquantis turbine, subsequently couples this model to OrcaFlex or within OpenFAST framework to preliminarily design and explore a full floating tidal turbine system in a control co-design process.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Analysis and Effective Parametrization of PEM Fuel Cell Models

The cost of proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) remains a major hurdle in large-scale commercialization of this technology. To improve their performance and reduce cost, novel materials and electrode designs are continuously envisioned, e.g., non-PGM catalyst layers, ultra-thin Pt/Pt-Ni based catalyst layers, structured ionomer arrays or NSTF catalyst layers.1 Understanding the impact of these improvement strategies can be extremely time and cost intensive due to complex physical phenomena and large design space. We have previously developed a PEMFC modeling framework2 which has been a time and cost effective tool for understanding and optimizing the complex multi-physics phenomena within PEMFCs; however, several of the cell parameters used in the modeling have large spread in measured data.3 Furthermore, several transport parameters such as water adsorption kinetics have not been accurately measured and the approximations are spread over several orders of magnitude. These uncertainties cause problems in ascertaining accuracy of the modeling approach and they reduce the predictive power of the numerical models. The aim of this work is to identify the sensitivity of PEFC numerical model outputs to various input parameters. The previously in-house developed MEA modeling framework2 is used for PEMFC modeling. The sensitivity of the model outputs with respect to inputs parameters is obtained by analyzing the condition numbers for different output-input pairs at varying operating conditions. An example of the sensitivity analysis is shown in Figure 1. The condition numbers are obtained for the entire possible range of input parameters at varying operating conditions to identify the most crucial parameters of the PEMFC model. Based on our preliminary analysis, parameters related to kinetics (exchange current density and ECSA) and heat/water management in electrodes and ionomer (ionomer fraction, thermal conductivity) are most crucial. One of the major goals of this work is to identify the most crucial set of parameters towards which the model shows maximum sensitivity. This will guide future experimentalists to measure these properties with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis will also enable us to optimize the PEMFC performance by selectively targeting the most sensitive parameters and thereby making the largest impact. Acknowledgements The work is funded under the Fuel Cell Performance and Durability Consortium (FC-PAD), by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors would like to thank Nathan Craig at Robert Bosch LLC for his valuable input in designing the sensitivity analysis. The authors would also like to thank Giovanna Bucci and Matthias Hanauer at Robert Bosch for their valuable inputs and discussion. References P. K. Sinha, W. Gu, A. Kongkanand and E. Thompson, J. Electrochem. Soc., 158, B831 (2011). L. M. Pant, M. R. Gerhardt, N. Macauley, R. Mukundan, R. L. Borup and A. Z. Weber, Electrochim. Acta, 326, 134963 (2019). R. Vetter and J. O. Schumacher, ArXiv181110091 Phys. (2018). Figure 1

Pant, Lalit↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). Portions of the Northern Plains states experienced substantial increases in convective available potential energy as a result of the higher SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. These differences produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for this event.

Bell, Jordan R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

TEM Analyses of Itokawa Regolith Grains and Lunar Soil Grains to Directly Determine Space Weathering Rates on Airless Bodies

Samples returned from the moon and Asteroid Itokawa by NASA's Apollo Missions and JAXA's Hayabusa Mission, respectively, provide a unique record of their interaction with the space environment. Space weathering effects result from micrometeorite impact activity and interactions with the solar wind. While the effects of solar wind interactions, ion implantation and solar flare particle track accumulation, have been studied extensively, the rate at which these effects accumulate in samples on airless bodies has not been conclusively determined. Results of numerical modeling and experimental simulations do not converge with observations from natural samples. We measured track densities and rim thicknesses of three olivine grains from Itokawa and multiple olivine and anorthite grains from lunar soils of varying exposure ages. Samples were prepared for analysis using a Leica EM UC6 ultramicrotome and an FEI Quanta 3D dual beam focused ion beam scanning electron microscope (FIB-SEM). Transmission electron microscope (TEM) analyses were performed on the JEOL 2500SE 200kV field emission STEM. The solar wind damaged rims on lunar anorthite grains are amorphous, lack inclusions, and are compositionally similar to the host grain. The rim width increases as a smooth function of exposure age until it levels off at approximately 180 nm after approximately 20 My (Fig. 1). While solar wind ion damage can only accumulate while the grain is in a direct line of sight to the Sun, solar flare particles can penetrate to mm-depths. To assess whether the track density accurately predicts surface exposure, we measured the rim width and track density in olivine and anorthite from the surface of rock 64455, which was never buried and has a surface exposure age of 2 My based on isotopic measurements. The rim width from 64455 (60-70nm) plots within error of the well-defined trend for solar wind amorphized rims in Fig. 1. Measured solar flare track densities are accurately reflecting the surface exposure of the grains. Track densities correlate with the amorphous rim thicknesses. While the space-weathered rims of anorthite grains are amorphous, the space-weathered rims on both Itokawa and lunar olivine grains show solar wind damaged rims that are not amorphous. Instead, the rims are nanocrystalline with high dislocation densities and sparse inclusions of nanophase Fe metal. The rim thicknesses on the olivine grains also correlate with track density. The Itokawa olivine grains have track densities that indicate surface exposures of approximately 10(exp 5) years. Longer exposures (up to approximately 10(exp 7) years) do not amorphize the rims, as evidenced by lunar soil olivines with high track densities (approximately 10(exp 11) cm(exp -2)). From the combined data, shown in Fig. 1, it is clear that olivine is damaged (but not amorphized) more rapidly by the solar wind compared to anorthite. The olivine damaged rim forms quickly (in approximately 10(exp 6) y) and saturates at approximately 120nm with longer exposure time. The anorthite damaged rims form more slowly, amorphize, and grow thicker than the olivine rims. This is in agreement with numerical modeling data which predicts that solar wind damaged rims on anorthite will be thicker than olivine. However, the models predict that both olivine and anorthite rims will amorphize and reach equilibrium widths in less than 10(exp 3) y, in contrast to what is observed for natural samples. Laboratory irradiation experiments, which show rapid formation of fully amorphous and blistered surfaces from simulated solar wind exposures are also in contrast to observations of natural samples. These results suggest that there is a flux dependence on the type and extent of irradiation damage that develops in olivine. This flux dependence suggests that great caution be used in extrapolating between high-flux laboratory experiments and the natural case, as demonstrated by. We constrain the space weathering rate through analysis of returned samples. Provided that the track densities and the solar wind damaged rim widths exhibited by the Itokawa grains are typical of the fine-grained regions of Itokawa, then the space weathering rate is on the order of 10(exp 5) y. Space weathering effects in lunar soils saturate within a few My of exposure while those in Itokawa regolith grains formed in approximately 10(exp 5) y. Olivine and anorthite respond differently to solar wind irradiation. The space weathering effects in olivine are particularly difficult to reconcile with laboratory irradiation studies and numerical models. Additional measurements, experiments, and modeling are required to resolve the discrepancies among the observations and calculations involving solar wind amorphization of different minerals on airless bodies.

Berger, Eve L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Evaluation of a distributed catchment scale water balance model

The validity of some of the simplifying assumptions in a conceptual water balance model is investigated by comparing simulation results from the conceptual model with simulation results from a three-dimensional physically based numerical model and with field observations. We examine, in particular, assumptions and simplifications related to water table dynamics, vertical soil moisture and pressure head distributions, and subsurface flow contributions to stream discharge. The conceptual model relies on a topographic index to predict saturation excess runoff and on Philip's infiltration equation to predict infiltration excess runoff. The numerical model solves the three-dimensional Richards equation describing flow in variably saturated porous media, and handles seepage face boundaries, infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff production, and soil driven and atmosphere driven surface fluxes. The study catchments (a 7.2 sq km catchment and a 0.64 sq km subcatchment) are located in the North Appalachian ridge and valley region of eastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic data collected during the MACHYDRO 90 field experiment are used to calibrate the models and to evaluate simulation results. It is found that water table dynamics as predicted by the conceptual model are close to the observations in a shallow water well and therefore, that a linear relationship between a topographic index and the local water table depth is found to be a reasonable assumption for catchment scale modeling. However, the hydraulic equilibrium assumption is not valid for the upper 100 cm layer of the unsaturated zone and a conceptual model that incorporates a root zone is suggested. Furthermore, theoretical subsurface flow characteristics from the conceptual model are found to be different from field observations, numerical simulation results, and theoretical baseflow recession characteristics based on Boussinesq's groundwater equation.

Troch, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

White, Warren B.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A time-dependent ice sheet model - Preliminary results

A numerical model of ice sheet flow is developed, and preliminary results are described. This model includes vertical resolution of temperature, stress, and strain rate which represents a considerable improvement over previous vertically averaged ice sheet models. The model follows the flow of ice along a flow line within an ice sheet drainage basin. Longitudinal stresses and basal sliding are included. Basal sliding is dependent on the base shear stress and a specified distribution of basal water pressure. The numerical methods used to solve the coupled set of stress and velocity equations for the static and time-evolutionary cases are discussed. A steady state profile simulating an ice stream is calculated for a particular set of input parameters, and changes in the profile are examined for different choices of parameters. Preliminary studies of response behavior are completed using a simplified ice sheet geometry with a fixed terminus or grounding line. The results of these studies illustrate ice sheet thinning in response to a lowered sea level or to a reduction in the extent of ice rises (or pinning points) within ice shelves.

Bindschadler, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of Input Uncertainties in Numerical Simulations of Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser powder bed fusion has the potential of redefining state-of-the-art processing and production methods, but defect formation and inconsistent build quality have limited the implementation of this process. Numerical models are widely used to study this process and predict the formation of these defects. Presently, the uncertainties of model input parameters and thermophysical properties used by these numerical simulations have not been investigated. In the present study, the uncertainty in these input parameters and material properties are quantified for laser powder bed fusion, with and without a simulated powder bed, to determine their influence on the predictive accuracy of an experimentally validated numerical model. Accounting for all possible sources of uncertainty quickly becomes computationally expensive on account of the curse of dimensionality. Uncertainty in laser absorption, solid, and liquid specific heat of the metal were found to have the largest effect on model prediction reliability with or without the use of a powder bed. Results also illustrate that accounting for these three uncertain parameters still captures the majority of model prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, the methodology of this study may be used to understand the uncertainty in as-built microstructure through propagation to microstructure prediction models, or applied under processing conditions where high Péclet numbers are observed and the thermal convection and fluid flow within the molten pool are substantial.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward integrating high-fidelity CFD approaches in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of turbulent dry cask systems

Nuclear power plants have been supplying resilient and reliable electricity for decades, contributing to energy independence of the U.S.. However, nuclear waste management remains one of the most significant challenges in the industry. The safety of dry cask storage systems relies heavily on their thermal-hydraulic performance. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are often used to demonstrate this performance and ensure that the system design meets safety standards. This study presents reduced numerical models for various types of dry cask systems. These numerical models can produce efficient and fast results based on the employed modeling strategies. Additionally, the study uses a novel approach to high-fidelity simulations to evaluate modeling assumptions in dry cask modeling. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are used for this purpose, particularly in regions where fluid velocity is relatively high and the turbulence characteristics become important. Furthermore, the results of these high-fidelity simulations will enhance the interpretation of outcomes produced from a lower-fidelity CFD model.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vegetation Type and Decomposition Priming Mediate Brackish Marsh Carbon Accumulation Under Interacting Facets of Global Change

Coastal wetland carbon pools are globally important, but their response to interacting facets of global change remain unclear. Numerical models neglect species-specific vegetation responses to sea level rise (SLR) and elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) that are observed in field experiments, while field experiments cannot address the long-term feedbacks between flooding and soil growth that models show are important. Here, we present a novel numerical model of marsh carbon accumulation parameterized with empirical observations from a long-running eCO 2 experiment in an organic rich, brackish marsh. Model results indicate that eCO 2 and SLR interact synergistically to increase soil carbon burial, driven by shifts in plant community composition and soil volume expansion. Furthermore, newly parameterized interactions between plant biomass and decomposition (i.e. soil priming) reduce the impact of eCO 2 on marsh survival, and by inference, the impact of eCO 2 on soil carbon accumulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗