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At least 775 records · Page 43

Effect of hydrogen on plasticity of $α$-Fe: A multi-scale assessment

A multi-scale study was carried out to quantify the effect of interstitial hydrogen concentration on plasticity in $α$-Fe. Here, in this work, the influence of hydrogen on the screw dislocation glide behavior was examined across several length-scales. The insights obtained were integrated to provide an accurate continuum description for the effect of hydrogen on the dislocation based plasticity in polycrystalline $α$-Fe. At the outset of this work, a new Fe—H interatomic potential was formulated that enhanced the atomistic estimation of the variation in dislocation glide behavior in presence of hydrogen. Next, the dislocation core reconstruction observed due to the addition of hydrogen using atomistic simulations was validated with the help of large-scale DFT calculations based on the DFT-FE framework. Several atomistic simulations were carried out to comprehensively quantify the effect of hydrogen on the non-Schmid behavior exhibited during the dislocation glide in $α$-Fe. Finally, crystal plasticity simulations were carried out to understand the effect of hydrogen on the meso-scale deformation behavior of polycrystalline $α$-Fe.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Fundamentally New Coupled Approach to Contact Mechanics via the Dirichlet‐Neumann Schwarz Alternating Method

Contact phenomena are crucial for understanding the behavior of mechanical systems. However, existing computational approaches for simulating mechanical contact often face numerical challenges, such as inaccurate physical predictions, energy conservation errors, and unwanted oscillations. Here, we introduce an alternative technique for simulating dynamic contact based on the non‐overlapping Schwarz alternating method, originally developed for domain decomposition. In multibody contact scenarios, this method treats each body as a separate, non‐overlapping domain and prevents interpenetration using an alternating Dirichlet–Neumann iterative process. This approach has a strong theoretical foundation, eliminates the need for contact constraints, and offers flexibility, making it ideal for multiscale and multiphysics applications. We conducted a numerical comparison between the Schwarz method and traditional methods, such as the Lagrange multiplier and penalty methods, focusing on a benchmark impact problem. Our results indicate that the Schwarz alternating method outperforms traditional methods in several key areas: it provides more accurate predictions for various measurable quantities and demonstrates exceptional energy conservation capabilities. To address unwanted oscillations in contact velocities and forces, we explored various algorithms and stabilization techniques, ultimately opting for the naïve‐stabilized Newmark scheme for its simplicity and effectiveness. Additionally, we validated the efficiency of the Schwarz method in a three‐dimensional impact problem, highlighting its inherent capacity to accommodate different mesh topologies, time‐integration schemes, and time steps for each interacting body.

Schwarz alternating method↗

Accelerating Multiscale Materials Modeling with Machine Learning

The focus of this project is to accelerate and transform the workflow of multiscale materials modeling by developing an integrated toolchain seamlessly combining DFT, SNAP, LAMMPS, (shown in Figure 1-1) and a machine-learning (ML) model that will more efficiently extract information from a smaller set of first-principles calculations. Our ML model enables us to accelerate first-principles data generation by interpolating existing high fidelity data, and extend the simulation scale by extrapolating high fidelity data (10 2 atoms) to the mesoscale (10 4 atoms). It encodes the underlying physics of atomic interactions on the microscopic scale by adapting a variety of ML techniques such as deep neural networks (DNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs). We developed a new surrogate model for density functional theory using deep neural networks. The developed ML surrogate is demonstrated in a workflow to generate accurate band energies, total energies, and density of the 298K and 933K Aluminum systems. Furthermore, the models can be used to predict the quantities of interest for systems with more number of atoms than the training data set. We have demonstrated that the ML model can be used to compute the quantities of interest for systems with 100,000 Al atoms. When compared with 2000 Al system the new surrogate model is as accurate as DFT, but three orders of magnitude faster. We also explored optimal experimental design techniques to choose the training data and novel Graph Neural Networks to train on smaller data sets. These are promising methods that need to be explored in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasmasheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasmasheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasma sheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasma sheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

WUS256: An Adjoint Waveform Tomography Model of the Crust and Upper Mantle of the Western United States for Improved Waveform Simulations

Abstract We report a new model (WUS256) of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds of the crust and upper mantle of the western United States (WUS) obtained from adjoint waveform tomography for the purpose of improving synthetic waveform fits to observed data. WUS256 is based on inversion of over 94,000 waveforms from 72 earthquakes recorded by nearly 3,400 stations. We started with the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab277 ) and waveforms in the period band of 50–120 s. We followed a conservative multiscale inversion approach with eight stages and 256 total inversion iterations which enabled monotonic misfit reduction to 20‐s minimum‐period waves. WUS256 relied on time‐frequency (TF) phase misfits and a trust region limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (L‐BFGS) optimization. Hessian‐vector products were used to qualitatively assess model resolution. Results indicate that WUS256 has good coverage of the continental regions to depths of about 150 km and is able to resolve features on lateral scales of about 200 km. We quantify waveform fits by the reduction in TF and normalized amplitude difference misfits between WUS256 and the SPiRaL starting model. WUS256 significantly improves waveform fits with misfit reduction 64% for both inversion and validation data sets compared to the SPiRaL starting model and shows even better fits compared to other models. Waveform fits illustrate that WUS256 reproduces body‐waves, fundamental mode surface waves as well as late arriving dispersed and/or scattered short period surface waves. The improvement in waveform fit indicates that WUS256 can be used to reproduce path effects on regional complete waveforms and moment tensor inversions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Integrated Multiscale Modeling Framework for Unconventional Stimulation and Production (Final Report)

The production of oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs largely depends upon two main features operating at different scales: (1) the establishment of a reservoir scale stimulated fracture network that effectively communicates with the rock volume, enhancing permeability and transport to the wellbore and (2) the coupled multi-phase flow, chemical and mechanical processes affecting the migration of hydrocarbons from the low permeability country rock adjacent to the stimulated fracture network. To date, there has been no simulation framework that allows seamless and integrated prediction of these features across spatial scales extending from the pore structure of the reservoir rock to the volume of the reservoir. In addition, there has been a lack of suitable field measurements to test such models, as stimulation and production data are often proprietary and not freely available to national laboratories and academic institutions. New multi-scale simulation capabilities are needed that are validated against suitable field-based research experiments on hydraulic fracturing and shale production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Multiscale Modeling of Ablation and Pyrolysis in PICA-Like materials

During atmospheric entry of planetary probes, the thermal protection system (TIPS) of the probe is exposed to high temperatures under low pressures. In these conditions, carbonous fibrous TIPS materials may undergo oxidation leading to mass loss and wall recession called ablation. This work aims to improve the understanding of material/environment interactions through a study of the coupling between oxygen transport in the Knudsen regime, heterogeneous oxidation of carbon, and surface recession. A 3D Random Walk Monte Carlo simulation tool is used for this study. The fibrous architecture of a model material, consisting of high porosity random array of carbon fibers, is numerically represented on a 3D Cartesian grid. Mass transport in the Knudsen regime from the boundary layer to the surface, and inside this porous material is simulated by random walk. A reaction probability is used to simulate the heterogeneous oxidation reaction. The surface recession of the fibers is followed by front tracking using a simplified marching cube approach. The output data of the simulations are ablation velocity and dynamic evolution of the material porosity. A parametric study is carried out to analyze the material behavior as a function of Knudsen number for the porous media (length of the mean free path compared to the mean pore diameter) and the intrinsic reactivity of the carbon fibers. The model is applied to Stardust mission reentry conditions and explains the unexpected behavior of the TIPS material that underwent mass loss in volume.

Lachaud, Jean↗

Input specific neural networks

Neural networks have emerged as powerful tools for mapping between inputs and outputs. However, their black-box nature limits the ability to encode or impose specific structural relationships between inputs and outputs. Many scientific and engineering problems, such as constitutive modeling in solid mechanics, require networks that can enforce convexity, monotonicity, or other structural constraints to ensure physical consistency. Here, we introduce the Input Specific Neural Network (ISNN), a new architecture that enables multiple, distinct constraints to be imposed on different input subsets for scalar-valued outputs. This framework unifies convex, monotone–convex, monotone, and arbitrary mappings within a single network for the first time. Two ISNN architectures with analytical first- and second-order derivatives are developed. We demonstrate the performance on synthetic toy problems, inverse problems in isotropic hyperelasticity, and finite element simulations. ISNNs achieve improved extrapolation behavior, require fewer invariant inputs than standard input convex networks for polyconvex potentials, and enable significant computational savings via manual differentiation. We also show how ISNNs can be used to learn structural relationships between inputs and outputs via a binary gating mechanism. Particularly, ISNNs are employed to model a homogenized anisotropic free energy potential in a decoupled multiscale setting. The network learns whether or not the potential should be modeled as polyconvex and retains only the relevant layers while using the minimum number of inputs. ISNNs provide a flexible foundation for embedding structural priors into neural networks, enhancing both interpretability and stability. They are broadly applicable across computational mechanics and other scientific domains requiring constrained functional relationships.

Jadoon, Asghar A. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (Uni↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ionic Interdiffusion at Cathode|Solid-Electrolyte Interface: A Machine Learning–Assisted Multiscale Investigation and Mitigation Strategies

Future lithium batteries are expected to use solid electrolytes to achieve higher energy density and fast charge capabilities. However, most solid electrolytes are thermodynamically unstable against layered oxide cathodes. In this study, the stability of LiCoO2 (LCO) cathode with Li10GeP2S12 (LGPS) solid electrolyte is investigated using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and machine learning molecular dynamics (MLMD). The propensity of ionic interdiffusion, formation of a passivating interphase layer, and corresponding decay in cell performance is addressed using a continuum model. Large-scale MLMD simulations confirm that the LCO|LGPS interface permits interdiffusion of cobalt (Co) and other ionic species, leading to the formation and growth of a resistive interphase and to dramatic capacity fade even in the first cycle. We examine the literature evidence that incorporating a thin layer of LiNb0.5Ta0.5O3 (LNTO) between LCO and LGPS prevents the interdiffusion of ions. Atomistic simulations suggest that substituting lithium (Li) in LNTO with Co is thermodynamically unfavorable, thereby inhibiting ionic interdiffusion. The stable Nb5+/Ta5+ states form a rigid metal-oxide framework, which consequently also prevents the substitution of niobium (Nb) or tantalum (Ta). However, continuum-level analysis suggests that the higher mechanical stiffness of LNTO can lead to interfacial delamination between the LCO and LNTO. This phenomenon reduces the effectiveness of the protective layer. This paper, therefore, highlights the need to develop novel interlayers that balance low ionic interdiffusion with low mechanical stiffness.

Ncube, Musawenkosi K.↗

Self-consistent calculations of the electric charge, ion drag force, and the drift velocity of spherical grains using Langevin dynamics and comparisons against canonical experiments

We present trajectory simulation-based modeling to capture the interactions between ions and charged grains in dusty or complex plasmas. Our study is motivated by the need for a self-consistent and experimentally validated approach for accurately calculating the ion drag force and grain charge that determine grain collective behavior in plasmas. We implement Langevin dynamics in a computationally efficient predictor–corrector approach to capture multiscale ion and grain dynamics. Predictions of grain velocity, grain charge, and ion drag force are compared with prior measurements to assess our approach. The comparisons reveal excellent agreement to within ±20% between predicted and measured grain velocities [Yaroshenko et al., Phys. Plasmas 12, 093503 (2005) and Khrapak et al., Europhys. Lett. 97, 35001 (2012)] for 0.64, 1.25 μm grains at ∼20−500 Pa. Comparisons with the measured grain charge [Khrapak et al., Phys. Rev. E 72, 016406 (2005)] under similar conditions reveal agreement to within ∼20% as well. Measurements of the ion drag force [Hirt et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 5690 (2004); IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 32, 582 (2004)] are used to assess the viability of the presented approach to calculate the ion drag force experienced by grains exposed to ion beams of well-defined energy. Excellent agreement between calculations and measurements is obtained for beam energies >10 eV, and the overprediction below 10 eV is attributed to the neglect of charge exchange collisions in our modeling. Along with critical assessments of our approach, suggestions for future experimental design to probe charging of and momentum transfer onto grains that capture the effect of space charge concentration and external fields are outlined.

Physics↗

Insights into Supported Subnanometer Catalysts Exposed to CO via Machine-Learning-Enabled Multiscale Modeling

Subnanometer catalysts offer high noble metal utilization and superior performance for several reactions. However, understanding their structures and properties on an atomic scale under working conditions is challenging due to the large configurational space. Here, we introduce an efficient multiscale framework to predict their stability exposed to an adsorbate. The framework integrates a comprehensive toolset including density functional theory (DFT) calculations, cluster expansion, machine learning, and structure optimization. The end-to-end machine-learning workflow guides DFT data generation and enables significant computational acceleration. We demonstrate the approach for CO-adsorbed Pdn (n = 1–55) clusters on CeO 2 (111). Simulation results reveal that CO can facilitate restructuring by stabilizing smaller planar structures and bilayer structures of specific intermediate sizes, consistent with experimental reports. Metal–support interactions, preferential CO adsorption, and metal nuclearity and structure control catalyst stability. As a result, the framework allows automatic discovery of stable catalyst structures and a systematic strategy to exploit properties in the subnanometer scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tracking ion intercalation into layered Ti 3 C 2 MXene films across length scales

Enhancing the energy stored and power delivered by layered materials relies strongly on improved understanding of the intricate interplay of electrolyte ions, solvents, and electrode interactions as well as the role of confinement. Here we report a highly integrated study with multiscale theory/modelling and experiments to track the intercalation of aqueous Li + , Na + , K + , Cs + , and Mg 2+ ions into Ti 3 C 2 MXene. The integrated analysis of experiments assisted by theory/modelling allows for a deep understanding of energy storage processes highlighting the importance of the dynamics of cations, their positionings between MXene sheets, their effects on mechanical properties and capacitive energy storage. Computational simulations and operando calorimetry measurements prove the processes involving cation dehydration and H+ rehydration, showing a good correlation for heat variations between experiments and theory. Operando liquid AFM mapped energy dissipation of ions appears non-uniformly across the MXene surface, indicating heterogeneities of ions inside the MXene and confirming partially the ion behaviour obtained in theory. We directly demonstrate that the average distance between the cation and MXene surface follows a modified two-sided Helmholtz model when plotted versus the open circuit potential capacitance, revealing a different electrical double layer mechanism in confinement. This new fundamental understanding lays the foundation for improved functional devices utilizing electrodes and membranes made of two-dimensional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deformation and failure of the CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy subjected to extreme shock loading

The extraordinary work hardening ability and fracture toughness of the face-centered cubic (fcc) high-entropy alloys render them ideal candidates for many structural applications. Here, the deformation and failure mechanisms of an equiatomic CrCoNi medium-entropyalloy (MEA) were investigated by powerful laser-driven shock experiments. Multiscale characterization demonstrates that profuse planar defects including stacking faults, nanotwins, and hexagonal nanolamella were generated during shock compression, forming a three-dimensional network. During shock release, the MEA fractured by strong tensile deformation and numerous voids was observed in the vicinity of the fracture plane. High defect populations, nanorecrystallization, and amorphization were found adjacent to these areas of localized deformation. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the experimental results and suggest that deformation-induced defects formed before void nucleation govern the geometry of void growth and delay their coalescence. Our results indicate that the CrCoNi-based alloys are impact resistant, damage tolerant, and potentially suitable in applications under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Solvent-Mediated Control of Nanocellulose Dispersion: An Integrated Computational and Experimental Investigation

Fibrillated cellulose derived from forestry feedstocks represents a renewable and high-strength materials platform for circular bioeconomies. However, its practical implementation is hindered by the irreversible aggregation of nanocellulose architectures, including cellulose nanofibers (CNFs). Solvent-based dispersion offers a simple and practical route to prevent CNF aggregation. Here, in this work, we integrate classical and enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with experimental suspension rheology and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to elucidate how solvent environments tune CNF–CNF interactions and dispersion stability. CNF–CNF contact free energies computed from MD simulations reveal reduced aggregation in acetone/water, γ-valerolactone (GVL)/water, and tetrahydrofuran (THF)/water and pure acetone compared with pure water, reflecting stronger CNF-solvent relative to inter-CNF interactions. Correspondingly, CNF-solvent suspensions in these solvent systems exhibit stronger inter-fibril network structures and enhanced recovery compared to water, indicating improved CNF-solvent affinity. Liquid cell AFM imaging in acetone–water mixtures and in pure acetone further confirm the presence of well-dispersed CNFs. By combining multiscale computation with targeted experiments, this study establishes a rational framework for solvent design to achieve stable nanocellulose dispersions for high-strength biobased materials and efficient bioenergy conversion.

cellulose↗

Advanced Materials for Energy-Water Systems: The Central Role of Water/Solid Interfaces in Adsorption, Reactivity, and Transport

The structure, chemistry, and charge of interfaces between materials and aqueous fluids play a central role in determining properties and performance of numerous water systems. Sensors, membranes, sorbents, and heterogeneous catalysts almost uniformly rely on specific interactions between their surfaces and components dissolved or suspended in the water-and often the water molecules themselves-to detect and mitigate contaminants. Deleterious processes in these systems such as fouling, scaling (inorganic deposits), and corrosion are also governed by interfacial phenomena. Despite the importance of these interfaces, much remains to be learned about their multiscale interactions. Developing a deeper understanding of the molecular- and mesoscale phenomena at water/solid interfaces will be essential to driving innovation to address grand challenges in supplying sufficient fit-for-purpose water in the future. In this Review, we examine the current state of knowledge surrounding adsorption, reactivity, and transport in several key classes of water/solid interfaces, drawing on a synergistic combination of theory, simulation, and experiments, and finally, provide an outlook for prioritizing strategic research directions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗