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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for Water-Foam Fracturing of Granite Rock

In addition to the foam data that were obtained from literature and that were collected from the current study, simulation data was also generated from finite element analysis (FEA) conducted in this study using COMSOL Multiphysics software. The FEA models were built to simulate the experiments conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on cement and granite samples. In these FEA models, temperature was kept at ambient while the pressure profile resembled the loading conditions during the ORNL experiments, where pressure was either monotonically increased or applied cyclically. The cement material was used as a model material and was used to study Von Mises stress and tensile stress distribution for different bore hole length geometry using a parametric sweep with water as fracturing fluid using solid-fluid interaction module. For the granite material, FEA models were developed for stress analysis of cylindrical samples with water or foam fluids. The solid mechanics module in COMSOL was implemented to solve for Von Mises stress and tensile stress. The fluid-structure interaction module was implemented to solve for water-foam interaction on granite cylinder with addition of fluid-loading on structure, i.e., large deformation in solid mechanics with no impact on fluid deformation. Foam was considered as a pseudo single-phase compressible fluid for which material properties were calculated from water and gas (nitrogen) phases. The density of foam is calculated as a function of the densities of water and nitrogen, while viscosity is a function of temperature. Four types of FEA analyses were modelled: 1. Monotonic injection with water 2. Monotonic injection with foam 3. Cyclic injection with water 4. Cyclic injection with foam All the COMSOL files are converted to a zip file which is save in .mph.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Latent variable Gaussian process models: A rank‐based analysis and an alternative approach

Abstract Gaussian process (GP) models have been extended to emulate expensive computer simulations with both qualitative/categorical and quantitative/continuous variables. Latent variable (LV) GP models, which have been recently developed to map each qualitative variable to some underlying numerical LVs, have strong physics‐based justification and have achieved promising performance. Two versions use LVs in Cartesian (LV‐Car) space and hyperspherical (LV‐sph) space, respectively. Despite their success, the effects of these different LV structures are still poorly understood. This article illuminates this issue with two contributions. First, we develop a theorem on the effect of the ranks of the qualitative factor correlation matrices of mixed‐variable GP models, from which we conclude that the LV‐sph model restricts the interactions between the input variables and thus restricts the types of response surface data with which the model can be consistent. Second, following a rank‐based perspective like in the theorem, we propose a new alternative model named LV‐mix that combines the LV‐based correlation structures from both LV‐Car and LV‐sph models to achieve better model flexibility than them. Through extensive case studies, we show that LV‐mix achieves higher average accuracy compared with the existing two.

Tao, Siyu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has profound impacts on weather patterns across the globe, yet there is no consensus on its response to global warming. Several modelling studies find a stronger ENSO in global warming scenarios, while other studies suggest ENSO weakening. Using a broad range of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and four types of warming experiments, here we show that the majority of the models predict a stronger ENSO by century-end in Shared Social Pathway (SSP) experiments, and in idealized 1pctCO 2 and abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments. Several models, however, do predict no change or ENSO weakening, especially in the idealized experiments. Critically, the strongest forcing (abrupt-4xCO 2 ) does not induce the strongest ENSO response, while differences between the models are much greater than those between warming scenarios. For the long-term response (over 1000 years) the models disagree even on the sign of change. Furthermore, changes in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability are only modestly correlated with the tropical Pacific mean state change. The highest correlation for ENSO SST amplitude is found with the mean zonal SST gradient in the SSP5-8.5 experiment (R = –0.58). In contrast, changes in ENSO rainfall variability correlate well with changes in the mean state, as well as with changes in ENSO SST variability. When evaluating the Bjerknes Stability Index for a subset of models, we find that it is not a reliable predictor of ENSO strengthening, as this index tends to predict greater stability with warming. We argue that the enhanced ENSO stability is offset by increases in atmospheric noise or/and potential nonlinear effects. However, a robust inter-model mechanism that can explain a stronger ENSO simulated with global warming is still lacking. Therefore, caution should be exercised when considering ENSO changes based on a single model or warming scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

OpenStudio®-MCP [SWR-26-035]

OpenStudio®-MCP is a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server that lets AI assistants perform building energy modeling through natural language. Rather than requiring users to learn the OpenStudio® SDK, EnergyPlus® scripting, or Ruby/Python automation, the server translates conversational requests into sequences of tool calls that create models, design HVAC systems, run simulations, and extract results — all within a single chat session. The server's 124 tools are organized into a skills architecture where each skill encapsulates a domain of building energy modeling (envelope, HVAC, loads, weather, simulation, results) behind typed, LLM-friendly interfaces. High-leverage operations like applying ASHRAE 90.1 baseline systems or generating standards-compliant typical buildings are exposed as single tool calls that internally wire dozens of OpenStudio® objects. Bundled measures from ComStock™ and Openstudio® -common-measures-gem are wrapped with dedicated tools and typed arguments rather than exposed through a generic measure interface, so AI models get consistent, error-resistant recipes without needing to discover measure arguments at runtime. A key design decision is structured results extraction: six SQL-based tools return surgical ~300–1,000 token responses (end-use breakdowns, envelope summaries, HVAC sizing, timeseries data) instead of requiring the AI to parse ~100K-token raw HTML reports, making iterative design exploration practical within context window limits. The codebase is designed as a reference implementation — explicit, well-commented, and modular — so that other simulation engines (EnergyPlus® standalone, TRNSYS, DOE-2) can use it as a template for building their own MCP servers.

Ball, Brian [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transport across interfaces in symmetric orbifolds

We examine how conformal boundaries encode energy transport coefficients — namely transmission and reflection probabilities — of corresponding conformal interfaces in symmetric orbifold theories. These constitute a large class of irrational theories and are closely related to holographic setups. Our central goal is to compare such coefficients at the orbifold point (a field theory calculation) against their values when the orbifold is highly deformed (a gravity calculation) — an approach akin to past AdS/CFT-guided comparisons of physical quantities at strong versus weak coupling. At the orbifold point, we find that the (weighted-average) transport coefficients are simply averages of coefficients in the underlying seed theory. We then focus on the symmetric orbifold of the T 4 sigma model interface CFT dual to type IIB supergravity on the 3d Janus solution. We compare the holographic transmission coefficient, which was found by [1], to that of the orbifold point. We find that the profile of the transmission coefficient substantially increases with the coupling, in contrast to boundary entropy. We also present some related ideas about twisted-sector data encoded by boundary states.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alternative Conceptual Models of the Subsurface at the Hanford Site

This report describes the use of a multipoint geostatistics (MPS) framework with multiple data types for developing alternative conceptual-mathematical models of the subsurface at the Hanford Site. Developing multiple conceptual-mathematical models of the site is important for assessing potential uncertainties related to the features, events, and processes that control the subsurface flow of groundwater and the transport of contaminants of concern (COCs). Evaluating the effects of these uncertainties can result in better site characterization, monitoring, and remedial decisions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Optimization of Seismo-Acoustic Monitoring Networks with Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design

The Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) problem seeks to identify data, sensor configurations, or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty. The goal of OED is to find an experiment that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge about expected data. Therefore, within the context of seismic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types, and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize the ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases. In order to do utilize Bayesian OED we must develop four elements:1. A likelihood function that describes the uncertainty of detection and travel times; 2. A Bayesian solver that takes a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior; 3. An algorithm to compute EIG; and, 4. An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we can explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how and what multiphenomenology data can be used to optimally reduce uncertainty, how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty, and how sensor types, number, and locations influence uncertainty

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vehicle-Cycle Inventory for Type C School Buses & Intra-City Transit Buses

This report documents the new inventory incorporated into the Research and Development version of Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) 2025 model for the vehicle cycle of Type C school buses and intracity transit buses. The transportation sector contributes significantly to the United States’ energy consumption and resultant emissions (EPA, 2025a). However, public transit plays an important role in mitigating these impacts because it consumes a relatively low amount of energy per passenger (Congressional Budget Office, 2022). Public transit is widely used in the United States; more than 500,000 school buses (EPA, 2025b) and ~75,000 service buses (American Public Transportation Association, 2025) operate in the nation. These are primarily internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) powered by diesel. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are making efforts to electrify U.S. bus fleets by using batteries as a propulsion system to replace internal combustion engines. Electrification can reduce tailpipe emissions, such as particulate matter (with a diameter ≤10 µm [PM 10 ] and with a diameter ≤2.5 µm [PM 2.5 ]) and nitrogen oxides (Jonas et al., 2025; Martinez and Samaras, 2024; EPA, 2025b; Wayne et al., 2009). Hence, any energy and emission impact analysis of public transit must consider both conventional ICEVs and upcoming electric vehicle (EV) options for the school and transit buses that dominate this landscape. To understand the detailed environmental impact profiles of ICEV and EV school and transit buses, it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis covering both vehicle manufacturing and vehicle use stages. The current literature lacks a detailed vehicle-cycle inventory for school and transit buses, which makes this kind of comparison difficult. To overcome this gap, we developed a comprehensive vehicle-cycle model for school and transit buses in Argonne’s R&D GREET 2025 model. The model is flexible in handling user inputs for key assumptions, such as component weights and material compositions, upstream energy sources for material processing, and vehicle operating parameters, to understand their impacts on energy use and emissions for both school and transit buses. This report is organized as follows: Section 2 provides details on the modeling approach and vehicle specifications (weights and composition of different vehicle components, and vehicle operating parameters) for both school and transit buses. Section 3 provides details on vehicle assembly, disposal, and recycling (ADR) approaches for the two buses. Section 4 includes details about their incorporation into the R&D GREET model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

“Mirror” magnet experiment for quench studies, quench analysis techniques development and in support of superconducting magnet modeling

In order to progress on various research points related to superconducting magnets, we suggest performing series of tests with induced and natural quenches on a mirror magnet, probably using a “11 T” coil. The “mirror” is to have voltage taps instrumented on half the strands, on both coil ends. It is to be instrumented with multiple spot-heaters, of the order of ten, in designated pole-turn areas. Instrumentation is to include quench antenna array facing the inner coil surface, as well as acoustic sensors on the inner layer pole. Further, acoustic sensors at the magnet ends and an acoustic calibration transducer are to be installed. Thus, we are to test sensitivity and precision of acoustic and quench antenna (QA) array sensors, both at close proximity to the coil, and we are to test and commission acoustic on-magnet real-time “calibration”. New or extended DAQ will be tested as well. In addition to diagnostic development, the purpose of the magnet experiment is to investigate current redistribution in the coil, both during quenching and in operating conditions; to assess voltage build up across strands and in the coil segments during quenching, to explore voltage signature differentiation between different type of quenches; to improve modeling of processes during quenching and for magnet design purposes. In this experiment, we expect to be able to characterize the processes during a quench in unprecedented details.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observable proton decay in flipped SU(5)

We explore proton decay in a class of realistic supersymmetric flipped SU(5) models supplemented by a U(1) R symmetry which plays an essential role in implementing hybrid inflation. Two distinct neutrino mass models, based on inverse seesaw and type I seesaw, are identified, with the latter arising from the breaking of U(1) R by nonrenormalizable superpotential terms. Depending on the neutrino mass model an appropriate set of intermediate scale color triplets from the Higgs superfields play a key role in proton decay channels that include p → (e + , μ + ) π 0 , p → (e + , μ + ) K 0 , p → $\bar v$π + , and p → $\bar v$K + . We identify regions of the parameter space that yield proton lifetime estimates which are testable at Hyper-Kamiokande and other next generation experiments. We discuss how gauge coupling unification in the presence of intermediate scale particles is realized, and a Z 4 symmetry is utilized to show how such intermediate scales can arise in flipped SU(5). Finally, we compare our predictions for proton decay with previous work based on SU(5) and flipped SU(5).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Consolidated Hydropower Data Repository: Value and Opportunities

Hydropower is one of several types of generating assets that provides energy, capacity, and services to electric power systems. It does so under rubrics and objectives—market driven and regulated, internal and external to asset and fleet owners—that address reliability, cost, price, and, increasingly, flexibility of output. The aggregation of data from multiple hydropower units can provide insights into asset operations and maintenance practices and needs and assist in meeting hydropower objectives. This paper examines the concept and potential benefits of aggregating hydropower asset data—primarily supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) information—with examples of insights developed from data aggregated by the Hydropower Research Institute (HRI). Data aggregation as discussed herein, and as implemented by the HRI, extends beyond multiple units in a powerhouse and beyond multiple hydropower facilities in an electric utility fleet or river system. Examples of research and analytics from such aggregated datasets range from unit load dependency analyses to modeling sensor measurements to detect and diagnose anomalies in assets. These examples showed the benefits of utilizing the entire dataset for insights into how the sensor layout of a single unit or set of units compares to the hydropower industry overall. Such insights include whether additional sensors are needed to complete analyses or to make decisions. In addition, utilizing multiple sensors of the same kind within a unit can provide an indication of possible current or upcoming problems with equipment. Although other analyses are possible, their use requires the development of complex models and, potentially, access to types of data that are currently not included with the example dataset used in this study. However, the examples studied herein confirmed the value of data aggregation in the fleet and unit contexts, and the value extends beyond multiple units in a powerhouse and beyond multiple hydropower facilities in an electric utility fleet or river system. The assessments also provided insights into potential extensions to the data aggregation concept that could further add to their value to the hydropower community, and these are included in this document as a set of recommendations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine Controls Series: Part 1-Flatirons Campus Model Overview – Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

Wind turbines are typically deployed to provide energy, reduce diesel-fuel consumption, reduce carbon emissions, and reduce costs for energy and fuel transportation. However, in addition to solely providing energy to the power system, wind turbines contain rotating masses and inverter-based controls that can enable various reliability and resilience services through advance controls. As part of the Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL), it is demonstrated that advanced wind turbine controls can be employed to support higher contributions of wind, and to demonstrate ways that wind can play a role in supporting grid stability in islanded or grid-connected configurations. This paper documents models of various subsystem comprising a portion of NREL's Flatirons campus that will be used in three subsequent reports to demonstrate capabilities of advanced wind turbine controls. The series of reports will detail advanced capabilities of distributed wind turbines to provide support to isolated grids, distribution grids, and microgrids. We developed models to simulate a wind turbine (600 kW), solar PV (430 kW), battery energy storage system (1 MW/1MWh), a diesel generator (2 MW) and various types of loads (critical, dynamic). The model of the subsystems in MATLAB/Simulink are validated with available data from real-world components on NREL's Flatirons Campus. These validated models can be configured for various studies including four MIRACL use cases: 1) isolated grids, 2) microgrids, and 3) behind-the-meter, and 4) front-of-the-meter wind turbine deployments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The SOUX AGN sample: SDSS– XMM-Newton optical, ultraviolet, and X-ray selected active galactic nuclei spanning a wide range of parameter space – sample definition

Abstract We assemble a sample of 696 type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) up to a redshift of z = 2.5, all of which have an SDSS spectrum containing at least one broad emission line (H α, H β, or Mg ii) and an XMM-Newton X-ray spectrum containing at least 250 counts in addition to simultaneous optical/ultraviolet photometry from the XMM Optical Monitor. Our sample includes quasars and narrow-line Seyfert 1s: thus our AGN span a wide range in luminosity, black hole mass, and accretion rate. We determine single-epoch black hole mass relations for the three emission lines and find that they provide broadly consistent mass estimates whether the continuum or emission line luminosity is used as the proxy for the broad emission line region radius. We explore variations of the UV/X-ray energy index αox with the UV continuum luminosity and with black hole mass and accretion rate, and make comparisons to the physical quasar spectral energy distribution model qsosed. The majority of the AGN in our sample lie in a region of parameter space with 0.02 < L/LEdd < 2 as defined by this model, with narrow-line type 1 AGN offset to lower masses and higher accretion rates than typical broad-line quasars. We find differences in the dependence of αox on UV luminosity between both narrow/broad-line and radio-loud/quiet subsets of AGN: αox has a slightly weaker dependence on UV luminosity for broad-line AGN and radio-loud AGN have systematically harder αox.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of dose, dose rate, and irradiation type and their equivalence on radiation-induced segregation in binary alloy systems via phase-field simulations

Radiation-induced segregation is a phenomenon commonly observed in many alloys which consists of the redistribution of elements (solute or interstitial impurities) under irradiation. The onset and development of radiation-induced segregation can only occur when a sufficient flux of defects is sustained and defect sinks are present. Irradiation dose, dose rate, and particle types all affect defect flux. In this work, we employ a phase-field model to examine the effects of dose, dose rate, and type of incident particles on radiation-induced segregation behavior in a model binary alloy. The phase-field model takes into account the formation and evolution of point defects as well as defect clusters, the diffusion and clustering of alloy species, the presence of additional extrinsic defect sinks in the form of dislocations, and two different methods of radiation-damage insertion, which are intended to simulate either light-ion/electron irradiation via Frenkel pairs or heavy-ion irradiation in the form of cascades. Our results show a dose-rate and particle-type dependence on the amount of solute segregation. We show that the material systems exposed to higher dose rates are less subjected to solute segregation at equivalent doses. We also show that such dose-rate-dependence behavior is due to a delay of the incubation dose at which radiation-induced segregation effectively starts. Particle type and the presence of dislocations can accentuate this behavior. Our model predictions correlate with many experimental observations made over the years on radiation-induced segregation providing credence to the simulation results. The methodology presented in this study allows for a first-order prediction of the dose rate at which proxy irradiation experiments could be performed to approximate radiation-induced segregation behaviors seen in targeted irradiation conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to bottom quarks in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for dark matter particles produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a bottom quark-antiquark pair in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV is presented. The data, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 . The analysis is performed in exclusive categories targeting both Lorentz-boosted (merged) and resolved 𝑏 jet pair topologies, covering a wide range of Higgs boson transverse momentum. A statistical combination is made with a previous search using data collected in 2016 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb −1 . The observed data agree with the standard model background predictions. Constraints are placed on models predicting new particles or interactions, such as those in the simplified frameworks of baryonic-𝑍′ and 2⁢HDM + 𝑎, where the latter is a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model featuring a heavy pseudoscalar with an additional light pseudoscalar. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the production cross section for these models. For the baryonic-𝑍′ model, 𝑍′ boson masses below 2.25 TeV are excluded for a dark matter particle candidate mass of 1 GeV. In the 2⁢HDM + 𝑎 model, heavy pseudoscalar masses between 850 and 1300 GeV are excluded for a light pseudoscalar mass of 350 GeV.

Hayrapetyan, A. [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗