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DOE OSTI2021

Penalized ensemble Kalman filters for high dimensional non-linear systems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the well-known Kalman filter. However, its performance can suffer when the ensemble size is smaller than the state space, as is often necessary for computationally burdensome models. This scenario means that the empirical estimate of the state covariance is not full rank and possibly quite noisy. To solve this problem in this high dimensional regime, we propose a computationally fast and easy to implement algorithm called the penalized ensemble Kalman filter (PEnKF). Under certain conditions, it can be theoretically proven that the PEnKF will be accurate (the estimation error will converge to zero) despite having fewer ensemble members than state dimensions. Further, as contrasted to localization methods, the proposed approach learns the covariance structure associated with the dynamical system. These theoretical results are supported with simulations of several non-linear and high dimensional systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Mira-Titan Universe. II. Matter Power Spectrum Emulation

We introduce a new cosmic emulator for the matter power spectrum covering eight cosmological parameters. Targeted at optical surveys, the emulator provides accurate predictions out to a wavenumber k ~ 5Mpc -1 and redshift z ≤ 2. Besides covering the standard set of CDM parameters, massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy of state are included. The emulator is built on a sample set of 36 cosmological models, carefully chosen to provide accurate predictions over the wide and large parameter space. For each model, we have performed a high-resolution simulation, augmented with sixteen medium-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results to provide accurate coverage of a wide k-range; the dataset generated as part of this project is more than 1.2Pbyte. With the current set of simulated models, we achieve an accuracy of approximately 4%. Because the sampling approach used here has established convergence and error-control properties, follow-on results with more than a hundred cosmological models will soon achieve ~1% accuracy. We compare our approach with other prediction schemes that are based on halo model ideas and remapping approaches. The new emulator code is publicly available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

FDTD modelling of nanostructured OLEDs: analysis of simulation parameters for accurate radiation patterns

Nanostructures in OLEDs allow to manipulate the radiation pattern and direct light of a specific wavelength into a specific angle in the far field by resonant light outcoupling. We present a theoretical study investigating simulation conditions for accurate radiation patterns employing the FDTD method. Radiation patterns of single dipole emitters placed in a sufficiently large simulation domain are superimposed to model the incoherent emission of a continuous emission layer. The necessary simulation domain size is derived by considering propagation length and field profile of the guided mode of a corresponding unstructured OLED. A 5 nm mesh resolution is determined as a good compromise between accuracy and simulation time. The position of an emitter with respect to the grating has a large influence on the radiation pattern. Nevertheless, we demonstrate for nine different OLED structures that the radiation pattern of a homogeneous emission layer is approximated with an amplitude error of less than 5% by superimposing only four equally spaced dipoles at positions ± (1/8,3/8,5/8,7/8)⋅Λ/2, which avoid points of high symmetry.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

HPC Institutional Computing Project: W15_lesreactiveflow KIVA-hpFE Development: A Robust and Accurate Engine Modeling Software

KIVA-hpFE is a high performance computer software for solving the physics of multi-species and multiphase turbulent reactive flow in complex geometries having immersed moving parts. The code is written in Fortran 90/95 and can be used on any computer platform with any popular complier. The code is in two versions, a serial version and a parallel version utilizing MPICH2 type Message Passing Interface (MPI or Intel MPI) for solving distributed domains. The parallel version is at least 30x faster than the serial version and much faster than our previous generation of parallel engine modeling software, by many factors. The 5th generation algorithm construction is a Galerkin type Finite Element Method (FEM) solving conservative momentum, species, and energy transport equations along with two-equation turbulent model k-ω Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model and a Vreman type dynamic Large Eddy Simulation (LES) method. The LES method is capable modeling transitional flow from laminar to fully turbulent; therefore, this LES method does not require special hybrid or blending to walls. The FEM projection method also uses a Petrov-Galerkin (P-G) stabilization along with pressure stabilization. We employ hierarchical basis sets, constructed on the fly with enrichment in areas associated with relatively larger error as determined by error estimation methods. In addition, when not using the hp-adaptive module, the code employs Lagrangian basis or shape functions. The shape functions are constructed for hexahedral, prismatic and tetrahedral elements. The software is designed to solve many types of reactive flow problems, from burners to internal combustion engines and turbines. In addition, the formulation allows for direct integration of solid bodies (conjugate heat transfer), as in heat transfer through housings, parts, cylinders. It can also easily be extended to stress modeling of solids, used in fluid structure interactions problems, solidification, porous media modeling and magneto hydrodynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Mechanical Draft Cooling Tower Thermal Emissions from Visual Images of Plumes

Using a one-dimensional code, we computed the power (enthalpy discharge rate) of a twelve-cell mechanical draft cooling tower (MDCT) using over two hundred visible condensed water vapor plume volume measurements derived from images, weather data, and tower operating conditions. The plume images were simultaneously captured by multiple stationary digital cameras surrounding the cooling tower. An analysis technique combining structure from motion (SfM), a neural-network-based image segmentation algorithm, and space carving was used to quantify the volumes. Afterwards, the power output was computed using novel techniques in the one-dimensional code that included cooling tower exhaust plume adjacency effects implemented with a modified version of the entrainment function, weather data averaged from eleven stations, and fan operations at the times when plume volumes were measured. The model was then compared with the averaged observed power output, and it validated well with an average error ranging from 6 to 12%, depending on the meteorological data used in the simulations. This methodology can possibly determine power plant fuel consumption rates by applying visible imagery.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reconstruction of the Density Power Spectrum from Quasar Spectra using Machine Learning

We describe a novel end-to-end approach using Machine Learning to reconstruct the power spectrum of cosmological density perturbations at high redshift from observed quasar spectra. State-of-the-art cosmological simulations of structure formation are used to generate a large synthetic dataset of line-of-sight absorption spectra paired with 1-dimensional fluid quantities along the same line-of-sight, such as the total density of matter and the density of neutral atomic hydrogen. With this dataset, we build a series of data-driven models to predict the power spectrum of total matter density. We are able to produce models which yield reconstruction to accuracy of about 1% for wavelengths $k \leq 2 h Mpc^{-1}$, while the error increases at larger $k$. We show the size of data sample required to reach a particular error rate, giving a sense of how much data is necessary to reach a desired accuracy. This work provides a foundation for developing methods to analyse very large upcoming datasets with the next-generation observational facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2014

Kinetic and interaction components of the exact time-dependent correlation potential

The exact exchange-correlation (xc) potential of time-dependent density functional theory has been shown to have striking features. For example, step and peak features are generically found when the system is far from its ground-state, and these depend nonlocally on the density in space and time. We analyze the xc potential by decomposing it into kinetic and interaction components and comparing each with their exact-adiabatic counterparts, for a range of dynamical situations in model one-dimensional two-electron systems. We find that often, but not always, the kinetic contribution is largely responsible for these features that are missed by the adiabatic approximation. The adiabatic approximation often makes a smaller error for the interaction component, which we write in two parts, one being the Coulomb potential due to the time-dependent xc hole. Non-adiabatic features of the kinetic component were also larger than those of the interaction component in cases that we studied when there is negligible step structure. In ground-state situations, step and peak structures arise in cases of static correlation, when more than one determinant is essential to describe the interacting state. We investigate the time-dependent natural orbital occupation numbers and find the corresponding relation between these and the dynamical step is more complex than for the ground-state case.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved loss functions for machine-learned atomic potentials

Machine learning (ML) has become an invaluable tool across a wide array of domains in science as researchers find new ways to leverage its predictive power. This is especially true in chemistry, where ML is used to fit chemical properties or desirable attributes to the local structure of molecules and materials. In the pursuit of greater accuracy, it is relatively simple to increase the size or complexity of such models, although this often requires simultaneously seeking larger datasets in order to both fit and interpret the larger number of parameters. However, it is equally important to assess the quality and relative importance of the data and how these factors impact the training process. We, therefore, investigate the impact of using different loss functions for training neural network potentials (NNPs), as the loss function defines the error and parameter gradients used to train the NNP. In particular, we test the mean-squared error and Huber loss functions and, using insight from these functions, derive a new loss function based on the Asinh function, which yields significant improvement in the accuracy and generality of NNPs. We show that by discounting/minimizing errors and anomalies in the optimization process, both the Huber and Asinh loss functions improve the training of NNPs, leading to a final potential with a greater effective dimensionality.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Zero-truncated Poisson regression for sparse multiway count data corrupted by false zeros

Abstract We propose a novel statistical inference methodology for multiway count data that is corrupted by false zeros that are indistinguishable from true zero counts. Our approach consists of zero-truncating the Poisson distribution to neglect all zero values. This simple truncated approach dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts and reduces the amount of data to be processed. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank tensor structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $N$-way rank-$R$ parametric tensor $\boldsymbol{\mathscr{M}}\in (0,\infty )^{I\times \cdots \times I}$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated by zero-truncated Poisson regression from approximately $IR^2\log _2^2(I)$ non-zero counts under the nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Our result also quantifies the error made by zero-truncating the Poisson distribution when the parameter is uniformly bounded from below. Therefore, under a low-rank multiparameter model, we propose an implementable approach guaranteed to achieve accurate regression in under-determined scenarios with substantial corruption by false zeros. Several numerical experiments are presented to explore the theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting initial dissolution rates using structural features from molecular dynamics simulations

Predicting chemical durability of glass materials is important for various applications from daily life such as drink glass and kitchen ware to advanced technologies such as nuclear waste disposal and biomedicine. In this work, we explored prediction of initial dissolution rate through structural features from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations for a wide range of glass compositions (total 28) including borosilicate and aluminosilicate glasses, ZrO 2 -containing and V 2 O 5 -containing boroaluminosilicate glasses. The initial dissolution rates (r 0 ) measured experimentally at 90 °C with varying solution conditions were correlated with structural features (e.g., polyhedral linkages and non-bridging oxygen species) obtained from MD simulations, either from this study or from literature. Since hydrolysis of the glass network through breaking of the network former linkages (e.g., Si-O-Si, Si-O-Al, etc.) is a critical step of network glass dissolution, the statistics of these linkages obtained from MD were correlated to r0 through linear regression, where the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and root mean square error are found to be 0.949 and 0.681, respectively. This model was compared and discussed with existing models developed by various approaches including machine learning, the kinetic rate equation, topological constraint theory, and other descriptors from MD simulations. The discussion provides insights on future model improvements to predict glass dissolution. In addition, the impact of V 2 O 5 on the glass dissolution was examined in detail, implicating that the impact is not the same across all glass compositions and test conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electronic structure analysis and DFT benchmarking of Rydberg-type alkali-metal-crown ether, -cryptand, and -adamanzane complexes

Density functional theory (DFT) and electron propagator theory (EPT) calculations were performed to study ground and excited electronic structures of alkali-metal (M) coordinated 9-crown-3, 24-crown-8, [2.1.1]cryptand, o-Me 2 -1.1.1, and 3 6 Adamanzane complexes. Each complex bears an expanded electron in the periphery and occupies diffuse 1p-, 1d-, 1f-type molecular orbitals (or superatomic 1P, 1D, 1F orbitals) in excited electronic states. The calculated superatomic shell model of the M(9-crown-3) 2 is 1S, 1P, 1D, 1F, 2S, 2P, 2D, 1G and it is held by all other complexes up to the studied 1F level. Due to the highly diffuse nature of the electron, the ionization energies of these complexes are significantly lower (1.6–2.0 eV) and hence these complexes belong to the superalkali category. Further, the ab initio EPT ionization energy and the excitation energies of the Li(9-crown-3) 2 were used to evaluate DFT errors associated with a series of exchange correlation functionals that span multiple rungs of Jacob's ladder (i.e., GGA, meta-GGA, global GGA hybrid, meta-GGA hybrid, range-separated hybrid, double-hybrid). Among these, the best performing functional is the range-separated hybrid CAM-B3LYP and the errors are within 6% of high-level ab initio EPT results. The accuracy of CAM-B3LYP is indeed transferable to similar complexes and hence the findings are expected to accelerate the progression of studies of Rydberg-type systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of the classical trajectory treatment of photon dynamics for polaritonic phenomena

Simulating photon dynamics in strong light–matter coupling situations via classical trajectories is proving to be powerful and practical. Here, in this work, we analyze the performance of the approach through the lens of the exact factorization approach. Since the exact factorization enables a rigorous definition of the potentials driving the photonic motion, it allows us to identify that the underestimation of photon number and intensities observed in earlier work is primarily due to an inadequate accounting of light–matter correlation in the classical Ehrenfest force rather than errors from treating the photons quasiclassically per se. The latter becomes problematic when the number of photons per mode begins to exceed a half.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Three-Dimensional, Analytical Wind Turbine Wake Model: Flow Acceleration, Empirical Correlations, and Continuity

A new, three-dimensional, analytical, steady-state wake model is presented that includes local flow acceleration near the rotor, improving the wake description compared to existing models. Wake structures such as the momentum deficit and regions of accelerated flow are concisely described with compound and normal Gaussian functions. Large-eddy simulations (LES) are used as training data to develop the model using two in-line turbines under various inflow conditions parameterized by hub-height wind speed and turbulence intensity. Mass conservation is considered by fixing two components of the wake velocity model and optimizing the third to best satisfy continuity; after which, the model performs comparably if not better than existing work with regards to both relative error and mass consistency. The final model demonstrates a high degree of flexibility, making use of empirical correlations to scale across different inflow conditions. The inclusion of these effects is capable of revealing unused opportunities for enhanced power generation by aligning wake trajectories with these regions of accelerated flow.

modeling↗

DOE OSTI2018

Review article: therapeutic bile acids and the risks for hepatotoxicity

Summary Background Bile acids play important roles in cholesterol metabolism and signal through farnesoid X receptor and G protein‐coupled receptors. Given their importance in liver biology, bile acid therapy enables therapeutic applications beyond the treatment of cholestatic liver disease. However, predicting hepatotoxicity of bile acids in humans is obscured due to inconsistent extrapolations of animal data to humans. Aim To review the evidence that could explain discordant bile acids hepatotoxicity observed in humans and animals. Method Literature search was conducted in PubMed using keywords “bile acid,” “transporter,” “hepatotoxicity,” “clinical study,” “animal study,” “species difference,” “mechanism,” “genetic disorder.” Relevant articles were selected for review. Results Clinically significant hepatotoxicity was reported in response to certain bile acids, namely chenodeoxycholic acid, which was given a boxed warning for potential hepatotoxicity. The chemical structure, specifically the number and orientation of hydroxyl groups, significantly affects their hydrophobicity, an important factor in bile acid toxicity. Experimental studies show that hydrophobic bile acids can lead to liver injury through various mechanisms, such as death receptor signalling, mitochondrial dysfunction and inflammation. Although animal studies play a central role in investigating bile acid safety, there are considerable differences in bile acid composition, metabolism and hepatobiliary disposition across species. This does not allow appropriate safety inference, especially for predicting hepatotoxicity in humans. Exploring evidences stemming from inborn errors, genetic models of disease and toxicology studies further improves an understanding of bile acid hepatotoxicity. Conclusion Species differences should be considered in the development of bile acid related therapeutics. Although the mechanism of bile acid hepatotoxicity is still not fully understood, continued mechanistic studies will deepen our understanding.

Ashby, K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Generalization Equations for Machine Learners Based on Physical and Abstract Laws

The physical and abstract laws derived from the first principles have been recently exploited to customize and sharpen machine learning (ML) methods and also derive their generalization equations. These laws often encapsulate knowledge that complements datasets and ML models. We present a generic framework that uses these laws to provide ML codes that are transferable across multiple areas, including data transport infrastructures and thermal hydraulics analytics of nuclear reactors. By anchoring on datasets from these areas and the statistical generalization theory, we present a rigorous approach to co-develop ML solutions and the generalization equations that characterize them, by exploiting the structure and constraints from the laws. We present illustrative examples using practical problems from existing literature on the performance characterization of data transport infrastructures, and the sensor error and power level estimation in nuclear reactor systems using sensor measurements of primary and secondary coolant systems, respectively.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2020

Covalency competition dominates the water oxidation structure–activity relationship on spinel oxides

Spinel oxides have attracted growing interest over the years for catalysing the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness, but fundamental understanding of their structure–property relationships remains elusive. Here we demonstrate that the OER activity on spinel oxides is intrinsically dominated by the covalency competition between tetrahedral and octahedral sites. The competition fabricates an asymmetric M$_T-O-M_O$ backbone where the bond with weaker metal–oxygen covalency determines the exposure of cation sites and therefore the activity. Driven by this finding, a dataset with more than 300 spinel oxides is computed and used to train a machine-learning model for screening the covalency competition in spinel oxides, with a mean absolute error of 0.05 eV. [Mn]$_T$[Al$_{0.5}$Mn$_{1.5}$]OO$_4$ is predicted to be a highly active OER catalyst and subsequent experimental results confirm its superior activity. This work sets mechanistic principles of spinel oxides for water oxidation, which may be extendable to other applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗