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At least 775 records · Page 43

Mixture Models for Dependent Observations

Parametric mixture models appropriate for data presented in homogeneous blocks of varying sizes from several unidentified source populations are considered. For most applications, the data elements within each block are dependent. Models are proposed for multivariate normal data incorporating two types of dependence, exchangeability of elements within blocks, and a Markov structure for blocks. The consequences of assuming exchangeability, when in fact the Markov structure holds, are explored. Computational problems for each model are considered, and results of a simple test of the exchangeability hypothesis for LANDSAT data are presented.

Peters, C.↗

Recent Advancements in Modeling and Simulation of Entry Systems at NASA

This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems in support of NASA's exploration missions. Mission-tailored research and development in modeling of entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within the Orion and Mars 2020 Programs), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the broad, cross-mission research conducted by NASA's Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency's only concerted effort toward advancing entry systems across a range of technical disciplines. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Predictive material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. Investments in thermal protection material modeling are geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of handling complex structures, with an eye toward optimizing design performance and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools have been developed to characterize material properties and behavior at the microstructural level, and experimental techniques (molecular beam scattering, micro-computed tomography, among others) have been developed to measure material kinetics, morphology, and other parameters needed to inform and validate detailed simulations. Advancements have also been made in macrostructural simulation capability to enable 3-D system-scale calculations of material response with complex topological features, including differential recession of tile gaps. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. Capacity and capability of the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) have been expanded in recent years and analysis of resulting data has led to several improvements in kinetic models, while simultaneously reducing uncertainties associated with radiative heat transfer predictions. First-principles calculations of fundamental kinetic, thermodynamic, and transport data, along with state-specific models for non-equilibrium flow regimes, have also yielded new insights and have the potential to vastly improve model fidelity. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate entry environments at Mars during dust storms; Studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled and woven thermal protection systems; and Advanced numerical methods to optimize computational analyses for desired accuracy versus cost. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent. With precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals, recent efforts have yielded 6-DOF models of multi-axis control with propulsive descent of both inflatable and rigid ellipsled-like architectures.

Barnhardt, Michael D.↗

Exploration of OMI Products for Air Quality Applications Through Comparisons with Models and Observations

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA s Aura satellite was launched in July 2004, and is now providing daily global observations of total column ozone, NO2, and SO2, as well as aerosol information. Algorithms have also been developed to produce daily tropospheric ozone and NO2 products. The tropospheric ozone product reported here is a tropospheric residual computed through use of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profile data to quantify stratospheric ozone. We are investigating the applicability of OMI products for use in air quality modeling, forecasting, and analysis. These investigations include comparison of the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 products with global and regional models and with lower tropospheric aircraft observations. Large-scale transport of pollution seen in the OM1 tropospheric O3 data is compared with output from NASA's Global Modeling Initiative global chemistry and transport model. On the regional scale we compare the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 with fields from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (NOAA/EPA) operational Eta/CMAQ air quality forecasting model over the eastern United States. This 12-km horizontal resolution model output is roughly of equivalent resolution to the OMI pixel data. Correlation analysis between lower tropospheric aircraft O3 profile data taken by the University of Maryland over the Mid-Atlantic States and OMI tropospheric column mean volume mixing ratio for O3 will be presented. These aircraft data are representative of the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, the region in which much of the locally-generated and regionally-transported ozone exists.

Pickering, K. E.↗

Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models

Observational studies have shown that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The downward propagation of the QBO tends to speed up and slow down during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Recent results from general circulation models have indicated that the ENSO modulation of the QBO requires a relatively high horizontal resolution, and that it does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. Here, we demonstrate that the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2 ∘ latitude by 2.5 ∘ longitude but with its gravity wave sources being parameterized interactively. This is because El Niño events lead to more vigorous gravity wave sources generating more absolute momentum fluxes over the equatorial belt, as well as less filtering of these waves into the tropical lower stratosphere through a weakening of the Walker circulation. Various components of the ENSO system, such as the sea surface temperatures, the convective activities, and the Walker circulation, are intimately involved in the generation and propagation of parameterized gravity waves, through which ENSO modulates the QBO period in GISS E2.2 models.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation↗

Development and Verification of a Finite-Difference Model of the Sorbent-Based Atmosphere Revitalization System for the Crew Exploration

A vacuum-swing adsorption (VSA) process to remove metabolic water, metabolic carbon dioxide, and metabolic and equipment generated trace contaminant gases from the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) atmosphere is being designed. For the CEV, the approach is taken that all metabolic water must be removed by the Sorbent-Based Atmosphere Revitalization System (SBAR), a technology approach that has not been used in previous spacecraft life support systems. To support the design of the SBAR, a Finite Difference computer model has been developed. In addition, examination of the competitive adsorption aspects of water and carbon dioxide on various sorbents is being investigated in order to both refine the computer simulation and gain understanding of the VSA process

Ritter, James↗

Reducing On-Board Computer Propagation Errors Due to Omitted Geopotential Terms by Judicious Selection of Uploaded State Vector

Several future, and some current missions, use an on-board computer (OBC) force model that is very limited. The OBC geopotential force model typically includes only the J(2), J(3), J(4), C(2,2) and S(2,2) terms to model non-spherical Earth gravitational effects. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WIRE), Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS), and X-ray Timing Explorer (XTE) all plan to use this geopotential force model on-board. The Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) is already flying this geopotential force model. Past analysis has shown that one of the leading sources of error in the OBC propagated ephemeris is the omission of the higher order geopotential terms. However, these same analyses have shown a wide range of accuracies for the OBC ephemerides. Analysis was performed using EUVE state vectors that showed the EUVE four day OBC propagated ephemerides varied in accuracy from 200 m. to 45 km. depending on the initial vector used to start the propagation. The vectors used in the study were from a single EUVE orbit at one minute intervals in the ephemeris. Since each vector propagated practically the same path as the others, the differences seen had to be due to differences in the inital state vector only. An algorithm was developed that will optimize the epoch of the uploaded state vector. Proper selection can reduce the previous errors of anywhere from 200 m. to 45 km. to generally less than one km. over four days of propagation. This would enable flight projects to minimize state vector uploads to the spacecraft. Additionally, this method is superior to other methods in that no additional orbit estimates need be done. The definitive ephemeris generated on the ground can be used as long as the proper epoch is chosen. This algorithm can be easily coded in software that would pick the epoch within a specified time range that would minimize the OBC propagation error. This techniques should greatly improve the accuracy of the OBC propagation on-board future spacecraft such as TRMM, WIRE, SWAS, and XTE without increasing complexity in the ground processing.

Greatorex, Scott↗

Magnetic field of Jupiter: A generalized inverse approach

The estimation of planetary magnetic fields from observations of the magnetic field gathered along a spacecraft flyby trajectory is examined with the aid of generalized inverse techniques, with application to the internal magnetic field of Jupiter. Model nonuniqueness resulting from the limited spatial extent of the observations and noise on the data is explored and quantitative estimates of the model parameter resolution are found. The presence of a substantial magnetic field of external origin due to the currents flowing in the Jovian magnetodisc is found to be an important source of error in estimates of the internal Jovian field, and new models explicitly incorporating these currents are proposed. New internal field models are derived using the vector helium magnetometer observations and the high field fluxgate observations of Pioneer 11, and knowledge of the external current system gained from the Pioneer 10 and Voyagers 1 and 2 encounters.

Connerney, J. E. P.↗

Mars 94 Mission: Current plans and science

The Soviet Space Program proposes large-scale investigations of Mars as one of the most important trends for the next 10 to 15 years. The objectives include global studies of the surface of Mars, its atmosphere, and the return of soil samples to Earth. The first stage of the program is to be implemented in the mid-90s. It includes measurements from an orbiter and a balloon in the atmosphere and on the surface from a rover as well. This can be done using the high energy upper stage of the launch vehicle. The payload mass could amount to about 1500 to 1700 kg. The capabilities of the Mars Mission in 1994 are discussed. As presently planned, Mars will be studied concurrently with the following facilities: an orbiter with instruments for remote sensing from a polar orbit; a balloon deployed in the Martian atmosphere; a rover on the surface; a network of smaller stations on the surface; a subsatellite; and a device to return a container with photo films of the Martian surface taken with a super high resolution. If the exploration of Mars with the MARS-94 spacecraft begins late in 1994 the American Mars-Observer will still be functioning in the near-Mars orbit. Thus, joint operation of the two satellites becomes possible providing coordinated exploration, the creation of joint data banks, joint data interpretation, and the development of a joint engineering model of Mars for its further exploration. There is an opportunity for experiments and instrumentation on the Soviet missions that address questions of interest to exobiology. American scientists are invited to participate in the upcoming Soviet missions, and lend expertise to further understanding of the relationship between the physical and chemical evolution of the solar system and the appearance of life.

Mukhin, Lev↗

Evolving UMM-S to Better Accommodate NASA EOSDIS Web User Interfaces and Downloadable Tools for Data Use

EOSDIS has a services metadata model that is growing too complex and trying to serve multiple use cases. A potential solution being explored is to break out the model for front-end and back-end use cases. This talk will discuss how best to accommodate web user interfaces and downloadable tools in NASA's Common Metadata Repository (CMR) and how to model this information for improved discovery centered around the user experience (UI/UX) approach. The challenges and strategy for addressing the evolution of the model will be discussed along with a proposed path forward for implementation.

User Experience↗

Aerothermodynamic Testing of the Crew Exploration Vehicle in the LaRC 20-Inch Mach 6 and 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnels

An experimental wind tunnel program is being conducted in support of a NASA wide effort to develop a Space Shuttle replacement and to support the Agency s long term objective of returning to the Moon and Mars. This article documents experimental measurements made on several scaled ceramic heat transfer models of the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle Crew Module. The experimental data highlighted in this article are to be used to assess numerical tools that will be used to generate the flight aerothermodynamic database. Global heat transfer images and heat transfer distributions were obtained over a range of freestream Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with the phosphor thermography technique. Heat transfer data were measured on the forebody and afterbody and were used to infer the heating on the vehicle as well as the boundary layer state on the forebody surface. Several model support configurations were assessed to minimize potential support interference. In addition, the ability of the global phosphor thermography method to provide quantitative heating measurements in the low temperature environment of the capsule base region was assessed. While naturally fully developed turbulent levels were not obtained on the forebody, the use of boundary layer trips generated fully developed turbulent flow. Laminar and turbulent computational results were shown to be in good agreement with the data. Backshell testing demonstrated the ability to obtain data in the low temperature region as well as demonstrating the lack of significant model support hardware influence on heating.

Berger, Karen T.↗

Aerothermodynamic Testing of the Crew Exploration Vehicle in the LaRC 20-Inch Mach 6 and 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnels

An experimental wind tunnel program is being conducted in support of a NASA wide effort to develop a Space Shuttle replacement and to support the Agency s long term objective of returning to the Moon and Mars. This report documents experimental measurements made on several scaled ceramic heat transfer models of the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle Crew Module. The experimental data highlighted in this test report are to be used to assess numerical tools that will be used to generate the flight aerothermodynamic database. Global heat transfer images and heat transfer distributions were obtained over a range of freestream Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with the phosphor thermography technique. Heat transfer data were measured on the forebody and afterbody and were used to infer the heating on the vehicle as well as the boundary layer state on the forebody surface. Several model support configurations were assessed to minimize potential support interference. In addition, the ability of the global phosphor thermography method to provide quantitative heating measurements in the low temperature environment of the capsule base region was assessed. While naturally fully developed turbulent levels were not obtained on the forebody, the use of boundary layer trips generated fully developed turbulent flow. Laminar and turbulent computational results were shown to be in good agreement with the data. Backshell testing demonstrated the ability to obtain data in the low temperature region as well as demonstrating the lack of significant model support hardware influence on heating.

Berger, Karen T.↗

Modeling of vortex generated sound in solid propellant rocket motors

There is considerable evidence based on both full scale firings and cold flow simulations that hydrodynamically unstable shear flows in solid propellant rocket motors can lead to acoustic pressure fluctuations of significant amplitude. Although a comprehensive theoretical understanding of this problem does not yet exist, procedures were explored for generating useful analytical models describing the vortex shedding phenomenon and the mechanisms of coupling to the acoustic field in a rocket combustion chamber. Since combustion stability prediction procedures cannot be successful without incorporation of all acoustic gains and losses, it is clear that a vortex driving model comparable in quality to the analytical models currently employed to represent linear combustion instability must be formulated.

Flandro, G. A.↗

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

Development of a Ground Test and Analysis Protocol to Support NASA's NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts

The NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) program is a public-private partnership model that seeks commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities to support extensive human spaceflight missions around and beyond cislunar space. NASA first issued the Phase 1 NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement to U.S. industries in 2014, which called for innovative cislunar habitation concepts that leveraged commercialization plans for low Earth orbit. These habitats will be part of the Deep Space Gateway (DSG), the cislunar space station planned by NASA for construction in the 2020s. In 2016, Phase 2 of the NextSTEP program selected five commercial partners to develop ground prototypes. A team of NASA research engineers and subject matter experts have been tasked with developing the ground test protocol that will serve as the primary means by which these Phase 2 prototype habitats will be evaluated. Since 2008, this core test team has successfully conducted multiple spaceflight analog mission evaluations utilizing a consistent set of operational products, tools, methods, and metrics to enable the iterative development, testing, analysis, and validation of evolving exploration architectures, operations concepts, and vehicle designs. The purpose of implementing a similar evaluation process for the NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts is to consistently evaluate the different commercial partner ground prototypes to provide data-driven, actionable recommendations for Phase 3.

Beaton, Kara H.↗

Development of a Ground Test and Analysis Protocol for NASA's NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts

The NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) program is a public-private partnership model that seeks commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities to support human spaceflight missions around and beyond cislunar space. NASA first issued the Phase 1 NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement to U.S. industries in 2014, which called for innovative cislunar habitation concepts that leveraged commercialization plans for low-Earth orbit. These habitats will be part of the Deep Space Gateway (DSG), the cislunar space station planned by NASA for construction in the 2020s. In 2016, Phase 2 of the NextSTEP program selected five commercial partners to develop ground prototypes. A team of NASA research engineers and subject matter experts (SMEs) have been tasked with developing the ground-test protocol that will serve as the primary means by which these Phase 2 prototypes will be evaluated. Since 2008, this core test team has successfully conducted multiple spaceflight analog mission evaluations utilizing a consistent set of operational tools, methods, and metrics to enable the iterative development, testing, analysis, and validation of evolving exploration architectures, operations concepts, and vehicle designs. The purpose of implementing a similar evaluation process for the Phase 2 Habitation Concepts is to consistently evaluate different commercial partner ground prototypes to provide data-driven, actionable recommendations for Phase 3. This paper describes the process by which the ground test protocol was developed and the objectives, methods, and metrics by which the NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts will be rigorously and systematically evaluated. The protocol has been developed using both a top-down and bottom-up approach. Top-down development began with the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) exploration objectives and ISS Exploration Capability Study Team (IECST) candidate flight objectives. Strategic questions and associated rationales, derived from these candidate architectural objectives, provide the framework by which the ground-test protocol will address the DSG stack elements and configurations, systems and subsystems, and habitation, science, and EVA functions. From these strategic questions, high-level functional requirements for the DSG were drafted and associated ground-test objectives and analysis protocols were established. Bottom-up development incorporated objectives from NASA SMEs in autonomy, avionics and software, communication, environmental control and life support systems, exercise, extravehicular activity, exploration medical operations, guidance navigation and control, human factors and behavioral performance, human factors and habitability, logistics, Mission Control Center operations, power, radiation, robotics, safety and mission assurance, science, simulation, structures, thermal, trash management, and vehicle health. Top-down and bottom-up objectives were integrated to form overall functional requirements - ground-test objectives and analysis mapping. From this mapping, ground-test objectives were organized into those that will be evaluated through inspection, demonstration, analysis, subsystem standalone testing, and human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing. For the HITL tests, mission-like timelines, procedures, and flight rules have been developed to directly meet ground test objectives and evaluate specific functional requirements. Data collected from these assessments will be analyzed to determine the acceptability of habitation element configurations and the combinations of capabilities that will result in the best habitation platform to be recommended by the test team for Phase 3.

Gernhardt, Michael L.↗

Fifteen-minute Extravehicular Activity Prebreathe Protocol Using NASA's Exploration Atmosphere (8.2 psia/ 34% 02)

A TBDM DCS probability model based on an existing biophysical model of inert gas bubble growth provides significant prediction and goodness-of-fit with 84 cases of DCS in 668 human altitude exposures. 2. Model predictions suggest that 15-minute O2 prebreathe protocols used in conjunction with suit ports and an 8.2 psi, 34% O2, 66% N2 atmosphere may enable rapid EVA capability for future exploration missions with the risk of DCS ≤ 12%.  EVA could begin immediately at 6.0 psi, with crewmembers decreasing suit pressure to 4.3 psi after completing the 15-minute in-suit prebreathe. 3. Model predictions suggest that intermittent recompression during exploration EVA may reduce decompression stress by 1.8% to 2.3% for 6 hours of total EVA time. Savings in gas consumables and crew time may be accumulated by abbreviating the EVA suit N2 purge to 2 minutes (20% N2) compared with 8 minutes (5% N2) at the expense of an increase in estimated decompression risk of up to 2.4% for an 8-hour EVA.  Increased DCS risk could be offset by IR or by spending additional time at 6 psi at the beginning of the EVA.  Savings of 0.48 lb of gas and 6 minutes per person per EVA corresponds to more than 31 hours of crew time and 1800 lb of gas and tankage under the Constellation lunar architecture. 6. Further research is needed to characterize and optimize breathing mixtures and intermittent recompression across the range of environments and operational conditions in which astronauts will live and work during future exploration missions. 7. Development of exploration prebreathe protocols will begin with definition of acceptable risk, followed by development of protocols based on models such as ours, and, ultimately, validation of protocols through ground trials before operational implementation.

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.↗