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NASA NTRS1994

Gamma-ray observations of Ophiuchus with EGRET: The diffuse emission and point sources

Observations of the Ophiuchus region made with the Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) during the first 2 1/2 years of operation show the diffuse emission from the interstellar gas in Ophiuchus as well as variable emission from two point sources. The gamma-ray emission is modeled in terms of cosmic-ray interactions with atomic and molecular hydrogen in Ophiuchus and with low-energy photons along the line of sight. The model also includes the flux from the two point sources and an isotropic diffuse contribution. The cosmic-ray density is assumed to be uniform. The derived ratio of molecular hydrogen column density to integrated CO intensity is (1.1 +/- 0.2) x 10(exp 20) H-mols/sq cm (K km/s)(exp -1). At the sensitivity and resolution of the gamma-ray data, no variation of this ratio over the modeled region is discernible, nor are any regions of enhanced cosmic-ray density apparent. The model was fitted to seven narrow energy bands to obtain the energy depedence of the gamma-ray production function and the spectra of the point sources. The derived production function is in good agreement with theoretical calculations and the local cosmic-ray electron and proton spectra. The positions of the point sources were determined from maximum likelihood analysis of the gamma-ray emission observed in excess of the diffuse model. We identify one point source with the quasar PKS 1622-253, which has an average flux, E greater than 100 MeV, of (2.5 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp -7) photons/sq cm/s and photon spectral index -1.9 +/- 0.3. The other source, denoted GRO J1631-27, has not yet been identified at other wavelengths. Its average flux, E greater than 100 MeV, is (1.1 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp -7) photons/sq cm/s; however, its spectral index is poorly determined. The spectral index and intensity of the isotropic contribution to the model agree well with the extragalactic diffuse emission derived from the SAS 2 data.

Hunter, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Einstein X-ray observations of Herbig Ae/Be stars

We have investigated the X-ray emission from Herbig Ae/Be stars, using the full set of Einstein Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) observations. Of a total of 31 observed Herbig stars, 11 are confidently identified with X-ray sources, with four additonal dubious identifications. We have used maximum likelihood luminosity functions to study the distribution of X-ray luminosity, and we find that Be stars are significantly brighter in X-rays than Ae stars and that their X-ray luminosity is independent of projected rotational velocity v sin i. The X-ray emission is instead correlated with stellar bolometric luminosity and with effective temperature, and also with the kinetic luminosity of the stellar wind. These results seem to exclude a solar-like origin for the X-ray emission, a possibility suggested by the most recent models of Herbig stars' structure, and suggest an analogy with the X-ray emission of O (and early B) stars. We also observe correlations between X-ray luminosity and the emission at 2.2 microns (K band) and 25 microns, which strengthen the case for X-ray emission of Herbig stars originating in their circumstellar envelopes.

Damiani, F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance of mean-frequency estimators for Doppler radar and lidar

The performance of mean-frequency estimators for Doppler radar and lidar measurements of winds is presented in terms of two basic parameters: Phi, the ratio of the average signal energy per estimate to the spectral noise level; and Omega, which is proportional to the number of independent samples per estimate. For fixed Phi and Omega, the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) (theoretical best performance) for unbiased estimators of mean frequency (normalized by the spectral width of the signal), signal power, and spectral width are essentially independent of the number of data samples M. For large Phi, the estimators of mean frequency are unbiased and the performance is independent of M. The spectral domain estimators and covariance based estimators are bounded by the approximate period of M. The spectral domain estimators and covariance based estimators are bounded by the approximate periodogram CRB. The standard deviation of the maximum-likelihood estimator approaches the exact CRB, which can be more than a factor of 2 better than the performance of the spectral domain estimators or covariance-based estimators for typical Omega. For small Phi, the estimators are biased due to the effects of the uncorrelated noise (white noise), which results in uniformly distributed 'bad' estimates. The fraction of bad estimates is a function of Phi and M with weak dependence on the parameter Omega. Simple empirical models describe the standard deviation of the good estimates and the fraction of bad estimates. For Doppler lidar and for large Phi, better performance is obtained by using many low-energy pulses instead of one pulse with the same total energy. For small Phi, the converse is true.

Frehlich, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance of a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar for wind measurements

Measurements of boundary layer winds are presented using a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar and the optimal performance of the maximum likelihood estimator. The systematic error for single-shot estimates was estimated as 3.6 cm/s using measurements from a stationary hard target. The estimation error for measurements of the radial component of the wind field was determined, as well as the fraction of the estimates that are randomly distributed over the velocity search space, when the signal power is low and speckle fading is important. The results from actual data are compared with the results from ideal simulations. The first direct estimation of the spatial structure function of the radial wind field and of the energy dissipation rate is presented for both horizontal and vertical directions of propagation. The rms estimation error of the velocity estimates is found to be within 30% of ideal performance based on simulation.

Frehlich, Rod↗
NASA NTRS1994

The massive halos of spiral galaxies

We use a sample of satellite galaxies to demonstrate the existence of extended massive dark halos around spiral galaxies. Isolated spirals with rotation velocities near 250 km/s have a typical halo mass within 200 kpc of 1.5-2.6 x 10(exp 12) solar mass (90% confidence range for H(sub 0) = 75 km/s/Mpc). This result is most easily derived using standard mass estimator techniques, but such techniques do not account for the strong observational selection effects in the sample, nor for the extended mass distributions that the data imply. These complications can be addressed using scale-free models similar to those previously employed to study binary galaxies. When satellite velocities are assumed isotropic, both methods imply massive and extended halos. However, the derived masses depend sensitively on the assumed shape of satellite orbits. Furthermore, both methods ignore the fact that many of the satellites in the sample have orbital periods comparable to the Hubble time. The orbital phases of such satellites cannot be random, and their distribution in radius cannot be freely adjusted; rather these properties reflect ongoing infall onto the outer halos of their primaries. We use detailed dynamical models for halo formation to evaluate these problems, and we devise a maximum likelihood technique for estimating the parameters of such models from the data. The most strongly constrained parameter is the mass within 200-300 kpc, giving the confidence limits quoted above. The eccentricity, e, of satellite orbits is also strongly constrained, 0.50 less than e less than 0.88 at 90% confidence, implying a near-isotropic distribution of satellite velocities. The cosmic density parameter in the vicinity of our isolated halos exceeds 0.13 at 90% confidence, with preferred values exceeding 0.3.

Zaritsky, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS1995

Gaussian statistics of the cosmic microwave background: Correlation of temperature extrema in the COBE DMR two-year sky maps

We use the two-point correlation function of the extrema points (peaks and valleys) in the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) 2 year sky maps as a test for non-Gaussian temperature distribution in the cosmic microwave background anisotropy. A maximum-likelihood analysis compares the DMR data to n = 1 toy models whose random-phase spherical harmonic components a(sub lm) are drawn from either Gaussian, chi-square, or log-normal parent populations. The likelihood of the 53 GHz (A+B)/2 data is greatest for the exact Gaussian model. There is less than 10% chance that the non-Gaussian models tested describe the DMR data, limited primarily by type II errors in the statistical inference. The extrema correlation function is a stronger test for this class of non-Gaussian models than topological statistics such as the genus.

Kogut, A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Multiparameter linear least-squares fitting to Poisson data one count at a time

A standard problem in gamma-ray astronomy data analysis is the decomposition of a set of observed counts, described by Poisson statistics, according to a given multicomponent linear model, with underlying physical count rates or fluxes which are to be estimated from the data. Despite its conceptual simplicity, the linear least-squares (LLSQ) method for solving this problem has generally been limited to situations in which the number n(sub i) of counts in each bin i is not too small, conventionally more than 5-30. It seems to be widely believed that the failure of the LLSQ method for small counts is due to the failure of the Poisson distribution to be even approximately normal for small numbers. The cause is more accurately the strong anticorrelation between the data and the wieghts w(sub i) in the weighted LLSQ method when square root of n(sub i) instead of square root of bar-n(sub i) is used to approximate the uncertainties, sigma(sub i), in the data, where bar-n(sub i) = E(n(sub i)), the expected value of N(sub i). We show in an appendix that, avoiding this approximation, the correct equations for the Poisson LLSQ (PLLSQ) problems are actually identical to those for the maximum likelihood estimate using the exact Poisson distribution. We apply the method to solve a problem in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy for the JPL High-Resolution Gamma-Ray Spectrometer flown on HEAO 3. Systematic error in subtracting the strong, highly variable background encountered in the low-energy gamma-ray region can be significantly reduced by closely pairing source and background data in short segments. Significant results can be built up by weighted averaging of the net fluxes obtained from the subtraction of many individual source/background pairs. Extension of the approach to complex situations, with multiple cosmic sources and realistic background parameterizations, requires a means of efficiently fitting to data from single scans in the narrow (approximately = 1.2 keV, HEAO 3) energy channels of a Ge spectrometer, where the expected number of counts obtained per scan may be very low. Such an analysis system is discussed and compared to the method previously used.

Wheaton, Wm. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar performance

The performance of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar is presented in terms of the statistical distribution of the maximum-likelihood velocity estimator from simulations for fixed range resolution and fixed velocity search space as a function of the number of coherent photoelectrons per estimate. The wavelength dependence of the aerosol backscatter coefficient, the detector quantum efficiency, and the atmospheric extinction produce a simple shift of the performance curves. Results are presented for a typical boundary layer measurement and a space-based measurement for two regimes: the pulse-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the transmitted pulse, and the atmospheric-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the velocity fluctuations over the range gate. The optimal choice of wavelength depends on the problem under consideration.

Frehlich, Rod↗
NASA NTRS1994

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

X-ray spectra of a complete sample of extragalactic core-dominated radio sources

We present ROSAT soft X-ray spectra for the members of a complete sample of 13 core-dominated, flat radio spectrum sources. The sample comprises all radio sources from a flux-limited radio catalog (S(sub 5GHz) greater than 1 Jy; Kuehr et al. 1981) which are north of delta = 70 deg, at galactic latitudes b greater than 10 deg, and have a flat radio spectrum between 1.4 and 5 GHz (alpha(sub r) less than 0.5; f approximately nu(sup -alpha)). The sources have already undergone much study at radio and optical wavelengths and are classified in broad terms as quasars (8 sources) and BL Lac objects (5 sources). We find mean X-ray power-law energy indices of alpha(sub x) = 0.59 +/- 0.19 for the quasars and 1.36 +/- 0.27 for the BL Lac objects (68% confidence range for two parameters of interest as determined by a maximum likelihood method), supporting earlier Einstein Observatory results for heterogeneous samples of sources (Worrall & Wilkes 1990). A non-zero dispersion on alpha(sub x) is found for both the quasars and the BL Lac objects. When we incorporate published radio, mm, and optical measurements and compare the X-ray and broad-band spectral indices alpha(sub x), alpha(sub rx), alpha(sub mm,x), and alpha(sub ox), the most obvious difference between the quasar and BL Lac subsamples lies within the X-ray band. We have fitted the multi-wavelength data to inhomogeneous synchotron-self-Compton models and find that, for the BL Lac objects with steep X-ray spectra, synchotron emission can account for the radio to soft X-ray measurements, whereas the BL Lac objects with hard X-ray spectra and the quasars require significant Compton emission to model the spectral flattening indicated by alpha(sub x) less than alpha(sub ox).

Brunner, H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

HST observations of the core of the globular cluster NGC 6624

We have used the Faint Object Camera (FOC) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to observe three fields near the center of the post-collapse globular cluster NGC 6624 in B and V. We use individual stellar positions and a maximum-likelihood technique to measure a position for the cluster center. We then transfer this position and the position of the x-ray source 4U 1820-30 to right ascension and declination, and correct an error of 1.8 sec in an earlier paper. From star counts, we obtain a density profile, with a power-law cusp of slope -0.84 +/- 0.16. No flat core is evident. We construct color-magnitude diagrams down to the main-sequence turnoff near the cluster center, and more than three magnitudes below the turnoff in the outermost field at r = 28 sec. The former diagram reveals a central population of blue stragglers, which has not previously been observed in this cluster. These blue stragglers are quite similar in specific frequency to those recently observed by HST in the core of 47 Tuc, and their presence adds to the growing evidence of stellar interactions in dense globular-cluster cores.

Sosin, Craig↗
NASA NTRS1995

Pseudocoherent Demodulation Of DPSK Radio Signals

Three schemes for pseudocoherent demodulation of differential-phase-shift keyed (DPSK) radio signals proposed for use in land-mobile/satellite communications. Enables fast reacquisition. Also amounts to compromise between two extremes of coherent demodulation and differentially coherent demodulation, for which bit-error rates greater than those of coherent demodulation by amounts corresponding to difference of about 1 dB in bit-energy/noise-energy ratio. Based on maximum-likelihood estimation and detection during N-symbol observation periods, where N integer typically chosen between 5 and 15.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS1994

Estimation and classification by sigmoids based on mutual information

An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the mutual information between the input and the output of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's s method, applied to an estimated density, yields a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, consisting of a single internal layer of sigmoids, for a random variable or a random sequence. Applications to the diamond classification and to the prediction of a sun-spot process are demonstrated.

Baram, Yoram↗
NASA NTRS1995

Lidar Analyses

A brief description of enhancements made to the NASA MSFC coherent lidar model is provided. Notable improvements are the addition of routines to automatically determine the 3 dB misalignment loss angle and the backscatter value at which the probability of a good estimate (for a maximum likelihood estimator) falls to 50%. The ability to automatically generate energy/aperture parametrization (EAP) plots which include the effects of angular misalignment has been added. These EAP plots make it very easy to see that for any practical system where there is some degree of misalignment then there is an optimum telescope diameter for which the laser pulse energy required to achieve a particular sensitivity is minimized. Increasing the telescope diameter above this will result in a reduction of sensitivity. These parameterizations also clearly show that the alignment tolerances at shorter wavelengths are much stricter than those at longer wavelengths. A brief outline of the NASA MSFC AEOLUS program is given and a summary of the lidar designs considered during the program is presented. A discussion of some of the design trades is performed both in the text and in a conference publication attached as an appendix.

Spiers, Gary D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Equalization and detection for digital communication over nonlinear bandlimited satellite communication channels

This dissertation evaluates receiver-based methods for mitigating the effects due to nonlinear bandlimited signal distortion present in high data rate satellite channels. The effects of the nonlinear bandlimited distortion is illustrated for digitally modulated signals. A lucid development of the low-pass Volterra discrete time model for a nonlinear communication channel is presented. In addition, finite-state machine models are explicitly developed for a nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. A nonlinear fixed equalizer based on Volterra series has previously been studied for compensation of noiseless signal distortion due to a nonlinear satellite channel. This dissertation studies adaptive Volterra equalizers on a downlink-limited nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. We employ as figure of merits performance in the mean-square error and probability of error senses. In addition, a receiver consisting of a fractionally-spaced equalizer (FSE) followed by a Volterra equalizer (FSE-Volterra) is found to give improvement beyond that gained by the Volterra equalizer. Significant probability of error performance improvement is found for multilevel modulation schemes. Also, it is found that probability of error improvement is more significant for modulation schemes, constant amplitude and multilevel, which require higher signal to noise ratios (i.e., higher modulation orders) for reliable operation. The maximum likelihood sequence detection (MLSD) receiver for a nonlinear satellite channel, a bank of matched filters followed by a Viterbi detector, serves as a probability of error lower bound for the Volterra and FSE-Volterra equalizers. However, this receiver has not been evaluated for a specific satellite channel. In this work, an MLSD receiver is evaluated for a specific downlink-limited satellite channel. Because of the bank of matched filters, the MLSD receiver may be high in complexity. Consequently, the probability of error performance of a more practical suboptimal MLSD receiver, requiring only a single receive filter, is evaluated.

Gutierrez, Alberto, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Transfer function bounds on the performance of turbo codes

In this article we apply transfer function bounding techniques to obtain upper bounds on the bit-error rate for maximum likelihood decoding of turbo codes constructed with random permutations. These techniques are applied to two turbo codes with constraint length 3 and later extended to other codes. The performance predicted by these bounds is compared with simulation results. The bounds are useful in estimating the 'error floor' that is difficult to measure by simulation, and they provide insight on how to lower this floor. More refined bounds are needed for accurate performance measures at lower signal-to-noise ratios.

Divsalar, D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Estimation of the longitudinal and lateral-directional aerodynamic parameters from flight data for the NASA F/A-18 HARV

This progress report presents the results of an investigation focused on parameter identification for the NASA F/A-18 HARV. This aircraft was used in the high alpha research program at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. In this study the longitudinal and lateral-directional stability derivatives are estimated from flight data using the Maximum Likelihood method coupled with a Newton-Raphson minimization technique. The objective is to estimate an aerodynamic model describing the aircraft dynamics over a range of angle of attack from 5 deg to 60 deg. The mathematical model is built using the traditional static and dynamic derivative buildup. Flight data used in this analysis were from a variety of maneuvers. The longitudinal maneuvers included large amplitude multiple doublets, optimal inputs, frequency sweeps, and pilot pitch stick inputs. The lateral-directional maneuvers consisted of large amplitude multiple doublets, optimal inputs and pilot stick and rudder inputs. The parameter estimation code pEst, developed at NASA Dryden, was used in this investigation. Results of the estimation process from alpha = 5 deg to alpha = 60 deg are presented and discussed.

Napolitano, Marcello R.↗