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At least 775 records · Page 43

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repair Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

Visualizing Multi-process CPU Utilization using CUSP

The CPU Utilization Statistics Plotter (CUSP) tool automates the interpretation of detailed CPU Utilization trace data and statistics. It puts you on the cusp of understanding how CPU resources are split among the many parallel components of a software system.CUSP combines time-sampled CPU utilization numbers and Event Log annotations to generate human-readable plots and tables. It automatically splits up large CPU usage log files around interesting events, determines and highlights just the tasks of primary relevance by evaluating their changing contribution to each plot's total CPU usage, automatically eliminates irrelevant tasks, provides context by labeling plots with names and durations of all active commands, and uses consistent color-coding to enable quick visual comparison across multiple plots.CUSP has been used to process CPU Utilization trace logs on the Mars Science Laboratory and the Mars 2020 Rover missions during flight software development and Flight Operations on the Martian surface since December 2013.

Maimone, Mark W↗

Testing of Advanced Capabilities to Enable In-time Safety Management and Assurance for Future Flight Operations

In order to refine an initial Concept of Operations, explore Concepts of Use, and expose/validate requirements for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS), testing architectures were created, along with a set of capabilities and underlying information exchange protocols. These systems were conceived and developed based on hazards associated with two envisioned urban area flight domains: (1) highly autonomous small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) operating at low altitudes, and (2) highly autonomous air taxis. The initial scope of this development is described in [1]; this report provides an update, focusing on the subsequent developments and test activities. As stated in [1], it is important to note that there are many capabilities already in use by the industry (or soon to be in use) that will play critical roles in future IASMS designs. Those reported here were developed to address a gap in the current state-of-the-art regarding specific hazards/risks, and/or to allow for investigation of the interplay between and across hazard types — particularly regarding how overall safety risk can be reduced or managed effectively. Results of testing and development activities are organized by the operational phase wherein a particular capability would be employed (i.e., preflight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line). Pre-flight: A set of capabilities were developed to help mitigate safety risk prior to flight (e.g., during flight and mission planning). Results of testing summarize (1) validation activities to raise the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and (2) evaluation activities where the capabilities were applied to flight/mission planning procedures and used by operators/pilots. For the latter, flight plans were automatically assessed, and operators/pilots were notified of hazardous flight segments so as to enable adjustment of the flight plan and re-evaluation, and/or to better inform go/no-go decisions. Capabilities addressed hazards associated with power consumption, third-party risk, wind, navigation system performance, radiofrequency interference, and proximity to geo-spatial threats (e.g., buildings, trees, and no-fly zones). In-flight: Flight experiments tested capabilities that detect and respond to hazards encountered during flight. In the first series, safety hazards were monitored and assessed onboard, and system-generated mitigation maneuvers were recorded (but not acted upon by the vehicle). In the second series, mitigation maneuver commands directed the aircraft in response to safety hazards (i.e., auto-mitigation). The sUAS used for testing is described in full, as is the test architecture, which included commercial avionics, research avionics, and onboard software designed to detect, assess, and respond to hazards. The onboard system was designed as a run-time assurance framework, consistent with [2] and supportive of both supervisory and automated modes. The primary functions included: real-time risk assessment (RTRA), auto-pilot monitoring, constraint monitoring, and contingency select/triggering. RTRA performs integrated risk assessment considering data from several hazard-related monitors (e.g., battery, motors, navigation, communications, population density, and loss-of-control). Post-flight/off-line: Data monitored and recorded during flights can enable IASMS capabilities that execute after flights have completed (or “off-line”). These include: (1) the ability to identify anomalies and trends that may only be observable when comparing data spanning a number of similar flights; (2) the ability to update and validate pre-flight and in-flight capabilities and any underlying models to improve their performance; (3) the ability to report anomalies/off-nominals that may indicate design changes or maintenance actions are needed; and (4) the ability for humans involved in operations to report safety-relevant observations to help in understanding the flight data and/or the operational context of a flight. Progress on three such capabilities is summarized; the first investigates anomaly detection given a limited set of flight logs and applies an approach previously used for space operations. The second explores what could be identified using a larger set of flight logs, including from web-based forums where flight logs are posted by sUAS autopilot users. The third creates a new means of collecting information on UAS incidents and accidents via the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS).

sUAS↗

Studying methane migration mechanisms at Walker Ridge, Gulf of Mexico, via 3D methane hydrate reservoir modeling

We have developed a 3D methane hydrate reservoir simulator to model marine methane hydrate systems. Our simulator couples highly nonlinear heat and mass transport equations and includes heterogeneous sedimentation, in-situ microbial methanogenesis, the influence of pore size contrast on solubility gradients, and the impact of salt exclusion from the hydrate phase on dissolved methane equilibrium in pore water. Using environmental parameters from Walker Ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, we first simulate hydrate formation in and around a thin, dipping, planar sand stratum surrounded by clay lithology as it is buried to 295mbsf. We find that with sufficient methane being supplied by organic methanogenesis in the clays, a 200x pore size contrast between clays and sands allows for a strong enough concentration gradient to significantly drop the concentration of methane hydrate in clays immediately surrounding a thin sand layer, a phenomenon that is observed in well log data. Building upon previous work, our simulations account for the increase in sand-clay solubility contrast with depth from about 1.6% near the top of the sediment column to 8.6% at depth, which leads to a progressive strengthening of the diffusive flux of methane with time. By including an exponentially decaying organic methanogenesis input to the clay lithology with depth, we see a decrease in the aqueous methane supplied to the clays surrounding the sand layer with time, which works to further enhance the contrast in hydrate saturation between the sand and surrounding clays. Significant diffusive methane transport is observed in a clay interval of about 11m above the sand layer and about 4m below it, which matches well log observations. The clay-sand pore size contrast alone is not enough to completely eliminate hydrate (as observed in logs), because the diffusive flux of aqueous methane due to a contrast in pore size occurs slower than the rate at which methane is supplied via organic methanogenesis. Therefore, it is likely that additional mechanisms are at play, notably bound water activity reduction in clays. Three-dimensionality allows for inclusion of lithologic heterogeneities, which focus fluid flow and subsequently allow for heterogeneity in the methane migration mechanisms that dominate in marine sediments at a local scale. Incorporating recently acquired 3D seismic data from Walker Ridge to inform the lithologic structure of our modeled reservoir, we show that even with deep adjective sourcing of methane along highly permeable pathways, local hydrate accumulations can be sourced either by diffusive or advective methane flux; advectively-sourced hydrates accumulate evenly in highly permeable strata, while diffusively-sourced hydrates are characterized by thin strata-bound intervals with high clay-sand pore size contrasts.

Nole, Michael↗

A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Alcohol Use on HCV-Treatment Outcomes with a Comparison of Resampling Methods to Assess Uncertainty in Parameter Estimates.

There is mounting evidence that alcohol use is significantly linked to lower HCV treatment response rates in interferon-based therapies, though some of the evidence is conflicting. Furthermore, although health care providers recommend reducing or abstaining from alcohol use prior to treatment, many patients do not succeed in doing so. The goal of this meta-analysis was to systematically review and summarize the Englishlanguage literature up through January 30, 2015 regarding the relationship between alcohol use and HCV treatment outcomes, among patients who were not required to abstain from alcohol use in order to receive treatment. Seven pertinent articles studying 1,751 HCV-infected patients were identified. Log-ORs of HCV treatment response for heavy alcohol use and light alcohol use were calculated and compared. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analytic model to accommodate the small sample size. The summary estimate for the log-OR of HCV treatment response was -0.775 with a 95% credible interval of (-1.397, -0.236). The results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are slightly more conservative compared to those obtained from a boot-strapped, random effects model. We found evidence of heterogeneity (Q = 14.489, p = 0.025), accounting for 60.28% of the variation among log-ORs. Meta-regression to capture the sources of this heterogeneity did not identify any of the covariates investigated as significant. This meta-analysis confirms that heavy alcohol use is associated with decreased HCV treatment response compared to lighter levels of alcohol use. Further research is required to characterize the mechanism by which alcohol use affects HCV treatment response.

alcohol↗

UT-GOM2-1 Hydrate Pressure Coring Expedition Prospectus

The UT-GOM2-1 Hydrate Pressure Coring Expedition will drill two holes in Green Canyon Block 955 in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico to pressure core and wireline log a coarse-grained methane hydrate reservoir. We will take ten, 10 ft, pressure cores in each well. The cores will be imaged and logged under pressure. Samples will be degassed to interpret hydrate concentration. Microbiological and pore water analyses will be performed. 20 3 ft pressure cores will be returned to shore for analysis. The log and core data will provide a foundation for scientific exploration by the greater hydrate research community

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (Phase III Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership (BSCSP) pursued a Phase III demonstration project at Kevin Dome in north central Montana. Kevin Dome covers approximately 700 square miles and is a naturally occurring CO 2 reservoir that is flanked by oil and gas fields. The carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is in the upper Devonian Duperow (carbonate) formation and does not reach the spill point of the dome; therefore, the dome has potential as a CO 2 sequestration reservoir, a CO 2 supply, or as both if anthropogenic sources and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations are associated with the dome. Kevin Dome could potentially act as a buffer to continue accepting anthropogenic CO 2 when EOR flooding operations are interrupted or completed. The project objective was to produce one million tonnes of CO 2 from the gas cap of Kevin Dome, pipe it laterally, inject, and re-store it in the brine leg of the same formation to test the hub / buffer storage concept. This was to be accomplished by drilling up to five production wells, building a short pipeline and compression facilities, and drilling an injection well and several monitoring wells. BSCSP commenced outreach and site characterization activities including acquiring baseline data for near-surface insurance monitoring, acquiring 3-dimensional, 9-component surface seismic over the project area, drilling two test wells (one in the production area and one in the injection area), coring key intervals, and performing comprehensive logging. Well tests of those wells revealed two barriers to the project. The production (Danielson 33-17) well was perforated in multiple zones but failed to produce any significant CO 2 . This was despite being drilled in the near vicinity of a historic well that had produced 3700 MCF per day in a drill stem test. Modeling indicated that this was likely due to a phase change during production causing a temperature drop resulting in hydrate and/or water ice formation that clogged the formation. Tests of the injection zone (Wallewein 22-1) well indicated total dissolved solids (TDS) slightly below the EPA required 10,000 parts per million (ppm) for a Class VI underground injection control permit. While the project was initiated before Class VI rules were promulgated, and this was an experimental project (seemingly qualified for a Class V permit), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicated that injection would require a Class VI permit. The low salinity result was unexpected as contours plotted based on regional formation water quality data indicated an expected TDS above 20,000 ppm, and wells between the recharge zone and the Wallewein well tested above 10,000 ppm. Faced with the inability to obtain an injection permit, the demonstration project could not proceed. However, the project had generated valuable samples and data on a large natural analog including 32 sq. mi. of 3-D, 9-C seismic, 430 ft. of carbonate core covering seven different depositional environments taken from areas with, and without the presence of CO 2 , 30 ft. of core of two caprocks, a tight carbonate and an anhydrite, a full set of modern logs on both wells, and well tests. DOE decided to re-scope the project around completing studies utilizing this data. This report covers both the initial scope and the re-scope (Task / Section numbers preceded with an R). While the report covers a wide range of project activities, highlights of this work include: Development of a geostatic model using neural nets to match well logs to facies and using multi-waveform seismic to inform reservoir heterogeneity; Unique mechanical testing of permeability – stress relationship in two caprock materials; Development of full waveform inversion to generate a high resolution velocity model; Model development for dual permeability (fracture and matrix) systems to better account for matrix-matrix interactions; Joint seismic wave inversion (including the first quadr-joint inversion) exhibiting better imaging of a challenging reservoir zone in stiff rock; Core flow and core flood results on a reactive carbonate; and Innovative laboratory measurements of seismic response of fractured core as a function of fluid fill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting uniaxial compressive strength from empirical relationships between ultrasonic p-wave velocities, porosity, and core measurements in a potential geothermal reservoir, Snake River Plain, Idaho

Empirical, core-based, predictive correlations for the calculation of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) were developed from compressive sonic velocity measurements (55 whole core samples) and porosity, density, and unconfined compressive tests (110 whole core samples). The samples were collected at 55 different depths in a 550 m (1800 ft) interval of core from the MH-2 borehole located in southern Idaho, USA. The western Snake River Plain is a known region of high heat flow and the borehole was drilled into a potential geothermal reservoir characterized by artesian flow of high-temperature (~140°C) fluids from fractured basalt. UCS was measured in unconfined compressive tests, density and porosity were measured using a He-pycnometer, and p-wave velocities were measured in a pressure vessel under variable confining pressures. We use correlations between density and p-wave velocity (R 2 = 0.91), UCS and porosity (R 2 = 0.78), and UCS and p-wave velocity (R 2 = 0.79) in a method to calculate calibrated UCS from wireline logs. Here, the impact of this predictive correlation is that UCS can be calculated from as little as a bulk density log when sonic logs and core are not available, greatly increasing the number of wells in which we can obtain a local UCS estimate.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

AGR-5/6/7 Capsule Leach Station Hardware Qualification - Phase 1

Procedural changes to this document shall be logged and justified using the EQP Change Log below. Typographical errors do not need to be logged, but do require the Lead Engineers initials and date. Each entry shall be numbered (i.e., CN #1) for identification in the left-hand margin of the table. Each entry may include individual or groups of related procedural changes. Changes to the EQP shall made by pen and ink and/or addition of additional pages depending on the extent of the change.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Alaska North Slope 2018 Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well: Technical Results

The Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well was drilled in December 2018 to confirm that a seismically-identified location within the western Prudhoe Bay Unit might be suitable for extended-duration scientific production testing. The well featured the acquisition of a full suite of logging-while-drilling data, collection of side-wall pressure cores, and installation of distributed temperature and distributed acoustic sensor (DTS, DAS) fiber-optic cables. Evaluation of the logging-while-drilling data confirms gas hydrate is present at high saturation in two target sands of high reservoir quality. Acquired logs and samples enable critical petrophysical information to be compiled for input into production models. The well tested two primary targets: the deeper Unit B is highly favorable due to optimal reservoir temperature and minimal observed risk for direct communication with permeable, hydrate-free water-bearing zones. The shallower Unit D provides a secondary target and opportunity to

Boswell, Ray↗

Numerical Simulations of Gas Production from Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Prudhoe Bay Unit 7-11-12 Pad on Alaska North Slope

In December 2018, a partnership between the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL), the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) successfully drilled and logged the Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well (STW) in the greater Prudhoe Bay oil field on Alaska North Slope. The logging-while-drilling (LWD) data confirmed the presence of gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs within two sand reservoirs (Unit B and Unit D) that are suitable targets for future testing. The interpreted log data and core sample measurements were used to create reservoir models for the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) Kuparuk 7-11-12 Site. The models combine both gas hydrate-bearing sections in Unit B and Unit D together with the intermediate Unit C and over- and underburden sands and shales. The vertical heterogeneity in porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and permeability distributions for reservoir and non-reservoir units was implemented using fine mesh discretization. The depressurization method was applied to Unit B to induce gas hydrate destabilization at constant bottom hole pressure (BHP) values. The results of the numerical simulations support the development of production scenarios, well design, surface facilities, and field test procedures with the main goal to perform efficient and safe scientific production testing. Project results contribute to the knowledge base of permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations as a future energy source.

Myshakin, Evgeniy↗

GOM2: Prospecting, Drilling and Sampling Coarse-Grained Hydrate Reservoirs in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico

The UT-GOM2-1 Hydrate Pressure Coring Expedition will drill two holes in Green Canyon Block 955 in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico to pressure core and wireline log a coarse-grained methane hydrate reservoir. We will take ten, 10 ft, pressure cores in each well. The cores will be imaged and logged under pressure. Samples will be degassed to interpret hydrate concentration. Microbiological and porewater analyses will be performed. 20 3 ft pressure cores will be returned to shore for analysis. The log and core data will provide a foundation for scientific exploration by the greater hydrate research community.

Flemings, Peter↗

Geothermal Exploration North of Mount St. Helens: Washington State Play-Fairway Project

Active seismicity within a broad zone in proximity to volcanism in the St. Helens Seismic Zone north of Washington State’s Mount Saint Helens provide key ingredients for hydrothermal circulation at depth. This seismicity extends well north of the volcanic edifice below where several faults and associated fractures in outcrop record repeated slip, dilation and alteration indicative of localized fluid flow. Candidate reservoir rocks include marine metasediments overlain by extrusive volcanics. This study characterizes the faults and fractures in the extrusives which are available in outcrop and sampled along well TGH17-24 and Plate Boundary Observatory strainmeter borehole, B201. Outcrop mapping and borehole image log analysis down to 250 m document abundant volcaniclastic deposits and basalt flows that are highly fractured, although intervening ash layers truncate the vertical extent of many of these structures. However, strike slip faults with well-developed gouge zones and adjacent localized high fracture density provide potential for vertically extensive fracture flow paths. Where these rocks are altered by intrusion, they develop high fracture density that can support heat transfer. Borehole image logs further record breakout that indicate the azimuth of SHmax in the shear zone is approximately 054/234°±23.6°, consistent with seismically active strike slip faults in the seismic zone, faults mapped in outcrop and evident in the borehole image logs, and with of plate convergence data. Furthermore, temperature profiles in two wells indicate isothermal conditions at average groundwater temperatures, consistent with rapidly flowing water localized within fractures.

drill↗

Dwarf galaxy halo masses from spectroscopic and photometric lensing in DESI and DES

We present the most precise and lowest-mass weak lensing measurements of dwarf galaxies to date, enabled by spectroscopic lenses from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and photometric lenses from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) calibrated with DESI redshifts. Using DESI spectroscopy from the first data release, we construct clean samples of galaxies with median stellar masses $\log_{10}(M_*/M_{\odot})=8.3-10.1$ and measure their weak lensing signals with sources from DES, KiDS, and SDSS, achieving detections with $S/N$ up to 14 for dwarf galaxies ($\log_{10}(M_*/M_{\odot})<$9.25) -- opening up a new regime for lensing measurements of low-mass systems. Leveraging DES photometry calibrated with DESI, we extend to a photometric dwarf sample of over 700,000 galaxies, enabling robust lensing detections of dwarf galaxies with combined $S/N=38$ and a significant measurement down to $\log_{10}(M_*/M_{\odot})=8.0$. We show that the one-halo regime (scales $\lesssim 0.15h^{-1}\rm Mpc$) is insensitive to various systematic and sample selection effects, providing robust halo mass estimates, while the signal in the two-halo regime depends on galaxy color and environment. These results demonstrate that DESI already enables precise dwarf lensing measurements, and that calibrated photometric samples extend this capability. Together, they pave the way for novel constraints on dwarf galaxy formation and dark matter physics with upcoming surveys like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's LSST.

Treiber, Helena [Princeton U., Astrophys. Sci. Dep↗

Rancor Integrated Procedure System (RIPS): A Computer-Based Procedure Platform for Advanced Reactor Research

The Rancor Microworld Simulator is a simplified, pressurized water, small modular reactor simulator that includes a multi-unit plant model server, an advanced digital human-machine control interface, and the Rancor Integrated Procedure System (RIPS). Rancor provides a research and development tool that can be used for collecting operator performance data and for prototyping concepts of operations (ConOps) for advanced reactor development. RIPS is meant as a research tool and includes many unique features: (1) RIPS has a robust procedure authoring system. (2) RIPS has the capability to run any of the three IEEE-Std-1786 computer-based procedure types. (3) RIPS can be configured to take on the look and feel of different vendors’ computer-based procedure systems for the purpose of developing and evaluating different ConOps for plant upgrades or new builds. (4) RIPS includes the capability for logging operator procedure use, including integrating procedure logs with Rancor simulator logs, thereby allowing automated data collection of operator scenario runs. (5) RIPS integrates with the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), a dynamic human reliability analysis environment that creates a digital human twin or virtual operator to mimic reactor operator performance. (6) RIPS includes support for automation of plant monitoring and control functions. While RIPS is explicitly built into Rancor, it may also be used with full-scope training simulators. This functionality allows RIPS to be used for existing plants and advanced reactors under development.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Counter Unmanned Aircraft System Metrics Tool

SAND2023-05387O The Counter Unmanned Aircraft System (CUAS) Metrics Tool consists of three applications: • The Data Collection Tool is designed to be used during testing and captures details that can be imported into the Figure Creator application. • The Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Log Converter converts different UAS logs into a standardized hierarchical data format with a timeline of geospatial data. • The Figure Creator develops relevant images for the test event. The application includes logic to ingest and correlate data from the Data Collection Tool and the UAS Log Converter to produce the chosen figures. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Mayle, Ashley↗