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At least 775 records · Page 43

A Novel Equivalent Model of Active Distribution Networks Based on LSTM

Dynamic behaviors of distribution networks are of great importance for the power system analysis. Nowadays, due to the integration of the renewable energy generation, energy storage, plug-in electric vehicles, and distribution networks turn from passive systems to active ones. Hence, the dynamic behaviors of active distribution networks (ADNs) are much more complex than the traditional ones. The research interests how to establish an accurate model of ADNs in modern power systems are drawing a great deal of attention. In this paper, motivated by the similarities between power system differential algebraic equations and the forward calculation flows of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), a long short-term memory (LSTM) RNN-based equivalent model is proposed to accurately represent the ADNs. First, the adoption reasons of the proposed LSTM RNN-based equivalent model are explained, and its advantages are analyzed from the mathematical point of view. Then, the accuracy and generalization performance of the proposed model is evaluated using the IEEE 39-Bus New England system integrated with ADNs in the study cases. Here, it reveals that the proposed LSTM RNN-based equivalent model has a generalization capability to capture the dynamic behaviors of ADNs with high accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Machine Learning-based Reliability Evaluation Model for Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamic remapping of parallel computations with varying resource demands

The issue of deciding when to invoke a global load remapping mechanism is studied. Such a decision policy must effectively weigh the costs of remapping against the performance benefits, and should be general enough to apply automatically to a wide range of computations. The authors propose a general mapping decision heuristic, then study its effectiveness and its anticipated behavior on two very different models of load evolution. Assuming only that the remapping cost is known, this policy dynamically minimizes system degradation (including the cost of remapping) for each computation step. This policy is quite simple, choosing to remap when the first local minimum in the degradation function is detected. Simulations show that the decision obtained provides significantly better performance than that achieved by never remapping. The authors also observe that the average intermapping frequency is quite close to the optimal fixed remapping frequency.

Nicol, David M.↗

On behaviour and scaling of small repeating earthquakes in rate and state fault models

With abundant seismic data for small repeating earthquakes, it is important to construct a dynamic model that can explain various aspects of related observations. We report on small repeating earthquakes on a fault governed by rate- and state-dependent friction laws. The earthquakes occur on a velocity-weakening patch surrounded by a much larger velocity-strengthening region. The whole fault is subject to long-term tectonic loading. The model with a circular patch and the aging form of rate- and state-dependent friction laws has been shown to reproduce the scaling of recurrence time versus seismic moment for small repeating earthquakes in a previous study. In this work we investigate the behaviour of small repeating earthquakes in related models under different scenarios, including several forms of the state evolution equations in rate- and state-dependent friction laws, rectangular velocity-weakening patch geometries, quasi-dynamic versus fully dynamic representation of inertial effects and 2-D versus 3-D simulations. We discover that the simulated scalings between the recurrence time and seismic moment for these different scenarios is similar while differences do exist. We propose a theoretical consideration for the scaling between the recurrence time and seismic moment of small repeating earthquakes. For patch radii smaller than or comparable to the full nucleation size, the scaling is explained by the increase of seismic to aseismic slip ratio with magnitude. For patch radii larger than the full nucleation size, the scaling is explained by the model in which the recurrence time is determined by the earthquake nucleation time, which is in turn determined by the time for aseismic slip to penetrate the distance of the full nucleation size into the patch. The obtained theoretical insight is used to find the combinations of fault properties that allow the model to fit the observed scaling and range of the seismic moment and recurrence time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling Quasi-Static and Fatigue-Driven Delamination Migration

An approach was proposed and assessed for the high-fidelity modeling of progressive damage and failure in composite materials. It combines the Floating Node Method (FNM) and the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) to represent multiple interacting failure mechanisms in a mesh-independent fashion. Delamination, matrix cracking, and migration were captured failure and migration criteria based on fracture mechanics. Quasi-static and fatigue loading were modeled within the same overall framework. The methodology proposed was illustrated by simulating the delamination migration test, showing good agreement with the available experimental data.

De Carvalho, N. V.↗

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Stochastic Multi-Timescale Power System Operations With Variable Wind Generation

This paper describes a novel set of stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch models that consider stochastic loads and variable generation at multiple operational timescales. The stochastic model includes four distinct stages: stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC), stochastic real-time SCUC, stochastic real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED), and deterministic automatic generation control (AGC). These sub-models are integrated together such that they are continually updated with decisions passed from one to another. The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is applied to solve the stochastic models to maintain the computational tractability of the proposed models. Comparative case studies with deterministic approaches are conducted in low wind and high wind penetration scenarios to highlight the advantages of the proposed methodology, one with perfect forecasts and the other with current state-of-the-art but imperfect deterministic forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with sensitivity tests using both economic and reliability metrics to provide a broader view of its impact.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The effects of particle loading on turbulence structure and modelling

The objective of the present research was to extend the Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) approach to particle-laden turbulent flows using a simple model of particle/flow interaction. The program addressed the simplest type of flow, homogeneous, isotropic turbulence, and examined interactions between the particles and gas phase turbulence. The specific range of problems examined include those in which the particle is much smaller than the smallest length scales of the turbulence yet heavy enough to slip relative to the flow. The particle mass loading is large enough to have a significant impact on the turbulence, while the volume loading was small enough such that particle-particle interactions could be neglected. Therefore, these simulations are relevant to practical problems involving small, dense particles conveyed by turbulent gas flows at moderate loadings. A sample of the results illustrating modifications of the particle concentration field caused by the turbulence structure is presented and attenuation of turbulence by the particle cloud is also illustrated.

Squires, Kyle D.↗

Two Dimensional Heat Transfer around Penetrations in Multilayer Insulation

The objective of this task was to quantify thermal losses involving integrating MLI into real life situations. Testing specifically focused on the effects of penetrations (including structural attachments, electrical conduit/feedthroughs, and fluid lines) through MLI. While there have been attempts at quantifying these losses both analytically and experimentally, none have included a thorough investigation of the methods and materials that could be used in such applications. To attempt to quantify the excess heat load coming into the system due to the integration losses, a calorimeter was designed to study two dimensional heat transfer through penetrated MLI. The test matrix was designed to take as many variables into account as was possible with the limited test duration and system size. The parameters varied were the attachment mechanism, the buffer material (for buffer attachment mechanisms only), the thickness of the buffer, and the penetration material. The work done under this task is an attempt to measure the parasitic heat loads and affected insulation areas produced by system integration, to model the parasitic loads, and from the model produce engineering equations to allow for the determination of parasitic heat loads in future applications. The methods of integration investigated were no integration, using a buffer to thermally isolate the strut from the MLI, and temperature matching the MLI on the strut. Several materials were investigated as a buffer material including aerogel blankets, aerogel bead packages, cryolite, and even an evacuated vacuum space (in essence a no buffer condition).

Johnson, Wesley L.↗

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Effects of winglets on a first-generation jet transport wing. 7: Sideslip effects on winglet loads and selected wing loads at subsonic speeds for a full-span model

The effect of sideslip on winglet loads and selected wing loads was investigated at high and low subsonic Mach numbers. The investigation was conducted in two separate wind tunnel facilities, using two slightly different 0.035-scale full-span models. Results are presented which indicate that, in general, winglet loads as a result of sideslip are analogous to wing loads caused by angle of attack. The center-of-pressure locations on the winglets are somewhat different than might be expected for an analogous wing. The spanwise center of pressure for a winglet tends to be more inboard than for a wing. The most notable chordwise location is a forward center-of-pressure location on the winglet at high sideslip angles. The noted differences between a winglet and an analogous wing are the result of the influence of the wing on the winglet.

Meyer, Robert R., Jr.↗

A non-linear dynamic lumped-parameter model of a rectangular plate.

A lumped-parameter model of a rectangular plate is developed by assuming fundamental mode solutions and using Hamilton's Principle and the Euler equations to set up the differential equation of motion for the system. The plate theory used may be described as the dynamic analogue of the von Karman large-deflection theory. Four sets of symmetrical boundary conditions are considered with the restriction of uniform pressure dynamic loads. The model takes the form of a mass on a cubic-hardening spring with each term defined by algebraic expressions of the plate parameters. The results for some specific problems are compared with two previous solutions. This method is less accurate but simpler to develop and apply.

Bayles, D. J.↗

Global Aerosol Optical Models and Lookup Tables for the New MODIS Aerosol Retrieval over Land

Since 2000, MODIS has been deriving aerosol properties over land from MODIS observed spectral reflectance, by matching the observed reflectance with that simulated for selected aerosol optical models, aerosol loadings, wavelengths and geometrical conditions (that are contained in a lookup table or 'LUT'). Validation exercises have showed that MODIS tends to under-predict aerosol optical depth (tau) in cases of large tau (tau greater than 1.0), signaling errors in the assumed aerosol optical properties. Using the climatology of almucantur retrievals from the hundreds of global AERONET sunphotometer sites, we found that three spherical-derived models (describing fine-sized dominated aerosol), and one spheroid-derived model (describing coarse-sized dominated aerosol, presumably dust) generally described the range of observed global aerosol properties. The fine dominated models were separated mainly by their single scattering albedo (omega(sub 0)), ranging from non-absorbing aerosol (omega(sub 0) approx. 0.95) in developed urban/industrial regions, to neutrally absorbing aerosol (omega(sub 0) approx.90) in forest fire burning and developing industrial regions, to absorbing aerosol (omega(sub 0) approx. 0.85) in regions of savanna/grassland burning. We determined the dominant model type in each region and season, to create a 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid of assumed aerosol type. We used vector radiative transfer code to create a new LUT, simulating the four aerosol models, in four MODIS channels. Independent AERONET observations of spectral tau agree with the new models, indicating that the new models are suitable for use by the MODIS aerosol retrieval.

Levy, Robert C.↗

When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?

Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.

Climate Change↗

CELCAP: A Computer Model for Cogeneration System Analysis

A description of the CELCAP cogeneration analysis program is presented. A detailed description of the methodology used by the Naval Civil Engineering Laboratory in developing the CELCAP code and the procedures for analyzing cogeneration systems for a given user are given. The four engines modeled in CELCAP are: gas turbine with exhaust heat boiler, diesel engine with waste heat boiler, single automatic-extraction steam turbine, and back-pressure steam turbine. Both the design point and part-load performances are taken into account in the engine models. The load model describes how the hourly electric and steam demand of the user is represented by 24 hourly profiles. The economic model describes how the annual and life-cycle operating costs that include the costs of fuel, purchased electricity, and operation and maintenance of engines and boilers are calculated. The CELCAP code structure and principal functions of the code are described to how the various components of the code are related to each other. Three examples of the application of the CELCAP code are given to illustrate the versatility of the code. The examples shown represent cases of system selection, system modification, and system optimization.

Source record↗

Real-Time Optimized Load Recovery Considering Frequency Constraints

A self-healing power grid can mitigate the impact of power outages and recover the affected area swiftly. To properly size the optimal amount and location of de-energized loads in the presence of both conventional and renewable sources, a precise optimization-based load recovery tool is proposed herein. The steady-state and transient behaviors of loads have been taken into account. The proposed tool contains three separate problems that interact with each other during the restoration period. The first-level problem determines the dispatching of generation units. The second-level problem comprises the non-linear algebraic equations, whose task is to provide the initial conditions for the third-level problem. Finally, the third-level problem intends to determine the optimal location and amount of load pickup through modeling the governor of generators as well as loads' dynamic behaviors. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed tool, a modified IEEE 39-system under a partial blackout condition has been tested. The results are verified by a commercial time-domain simulation software (PSS/E) to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed approach. Ultimately, the impact of wind turbine frequency control on the load recovery process has been studied under different penetration levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transient Stability of the US Western Interconnection with High Wind and Solar Generation

The addition of large amounts of wind and solar generation to bulk power systems that are traditionally subject to operating constraints set by transient limitations is the subject of considerable concern in the industry. The US Western Interconnection (WI) is expected to experience substantial additional growth in both wind and solar generation. These plants will, to some extent, displace large central station thermal generation, both coal and gas-fired, which have traditionally helped maintain stability. This paper reports the results of a study that investigated the transient stability of the WI with high penetrations of wind and solar generation. The main goals of this work were to (1) create a realistic, baseline model of the WI, (2) test selected transient stability events, (3) investigate the impact of large amounts of wind and solar generation, and (4) examine means to improve performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗