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DOE OSTI2020

Thermodynamic Consistent Neural Networks for Learning Material Interfacial Mechanics

For multilayer materials in thin substrate systems, interfacial failure is one of the most challenges. The traction-separation relations (TSR) quantitatively describe the mechanical behavior of a material interface undergoing openings, which is critical to understand and predict interfacial failures under complex loadings. However, existing theoretical models have limitations on enough complexity and flexibility to well learn the real-world TSR from experimental observations. A neural network can fit well along with the loading paths but often fails to obey the laws of physics, due to a lack of experimental data and understanding of the hidden physical mechanism. In this paper, we propose a thermodynamic consistent neural network (TCNN) approach to build a data-driven model of the TSR with sparse experimental data. The TCNN leverages recent advances in physics-informed neural networks (PINN) that encode prior physical information into the loss function and efficiently train the neural networks using automatic differentiation. We investigate three thermodynamic consistent principles, i.e., positive energy dissipation, steepest energy dissipation gradient, and energy conservative loading path. All of them are mathematically formulated and embedded into a neural network model with a novel defined loss function. A real-world experiment demonstrates the superior performance of TCNN, and we find that TCNN provides an accurate prediction of the whole TSR surface and significantly reduces the violated prediction against the laws of physics.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Seismograms in the Time Domain Using a Deep Learning Model

Deep learning has emerged as a transformative tool for enhancing the extraction of reliable information from seismograms, addressing the increasing demand for precise and efficient seismic data analysis. We introduce an innovative encoder–decoder deep learning model, named WaveDenoiser, designed for noise reduction in the time domain, thereby eliminating the need for spectrogram computations that have been used for existing deep learning tools and significantly improving processing speed. Utilizing the benchmark dataset that is Stanford Earthquake Dataset, we developed three models of varying sizes: base, medium, and large. Notably, the large (referred to as WaveDenoiser) model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a median signal‐to‐noise ratio improvement of 8.8 dB on in‐distribution unseen data (in the same geographic region) and 7.7 dB on out‐distribution unseen data (in a new geographic region), outpacing both the base and medium models. Further evaluation of the WaveDenoiser model revealed a reduction in median arrival‐time errors by 0.02 s for P waves and 0.01 s for S waves when processing waveforms prior to phase picking using PhaseNet on in‐distribution unseen data. When tested on out‐distribution unseen data, the model also effectively reduced the P‐wave median arrival‐time error by 0.02 and 0.01 s in median arrival‐time error for S waves. Importantly, the application of WaveDenoiser resulted in a significant reduction of phase picking outliers by 1.1% to 3.6% for both P and S waves. In addition, we achieved over five times acceleration in processing speed compared with the seisBench implementation of DeepDenoiser. Our findings underscore the potential of WaveDenoiser as a powerful tool for improving seismic data analysis and processing efficiency.

P-waves↗

DOE OSTI2023

ProvSec: Open Cybersecurity System Provenance Analysis Benchmark Dataset with Labels

System provenance forensic analysis has been studied by a large body of research work. This area needs fine granularity data such as system calls along with event fields to track the dependencies of events. While prior work on security datasets has been proposed, we found a useful dataset of realistic attacks and details that are needed for high-quality provenance tracking is lacking. We created a new dataset of eleven vulnerable cases for system forensic analysis. It includes the full details of system calls including syscall parameters. Realistic attack scenarios with real software vulnerabilities and exploits are used. For each case, we created two sets of benign and adversary scenarios which are manually labeled for supervised machine-learning analysis. In addition, we present an algorithm to improve the data quality in the system provenance forensic analysis. We demonstrate the details of the dataset events and dependency analysis of our dataset cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

ISS Logistics Hardware Disposition and Metrics Validation

I was assigned to the Logistics Division of the International Space Station (ISS)/Spacecraft Processing Directorate. The Division consists of eight NASA engineers and specialists that oversee the logistics portion of the Checkout, Assembly, and Payload Processing Services (CAPPS) contract. Boeing, their sub-contractors and the Boeing Prime contract out of Johnson Space Center, provide the Integrated Logistics Support for the ISS activities at Kennedy Space Center. Essentially they ensure that spares are available to support flight hardware processing and the associated ground support equipment (GSE). Boeing maintains a Depot for electrical, mechanical and structural modifications and/or repair capability as required. My assigned task was to learn project management techniques utilized by NASA and its' contractors to provide an efficient and effective logistics support infrastructure to the ISS program. Within the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) I was exposed to Logistics support components, such as, the NASA Spacecraft Services Depot (NSSD) capabilities, Mission Processing tools, techniques and Warehouse support issues, required for integrating Space Station elements at the Kennedy Space Center. I also supported the identification of near-term ISS Hardware and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) candidates for excessing/disposition prior to October 2010; and the validation of several Logistics Metrics used by the contractor to measure logistics support effectiveness.

Rogers, Toneka R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Discovery of Self-Assembling π-Conjugated Peptides by Active Learning-Directed Coarse-Grained Molecular Simulation

Electronically active organic molecules have demonstrated great promise as novel soft materials for energy harvesting and transport. Self-assembled nanoaggregates formed from π-conjugated oligopeptides composed of an aromatic core flanked by oligopeptide wings offer emergent optoelectronic properties within a water-soluble and biocompatible substrate. Nanoaggregate properties can be controlled by tuning core chemistry and peptide composition, but the sequence–structure–function relations remain poorly characterized. Here, we employ coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations within an active learning protocol employing deep representational learning and Bayesian optimization to efficiently identify molecules capable of assembling pseudo-1D nanoaggregates with good stacking of the electronically active π-cores. We consider the DXXX-OPV3-XXXD oligopeptide family, where D is an Asp residue and OPV3 is an oligophenylenevinylene oligomer (1,4-distyrylbenzene), to identify the top performing XXX tripeptides within all 20 3 = 8000 possible sequences. By direct simulation of only 2.3% of this space, we identify molecules predicted to exhibit superior assembly relative to those reported in prior work. Spectral clustering of the top candidates reveals new design rules governing assembly. This work establishes new understanding of DXXX-OPV3-XXXD assembly, identifies promising new candidates for experimental testing, and presents a computational design platform that can be generically extended to other peptide-based and peptide-like systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What You Need to Know about Planetary Protection Categorization for Your Mission

Planetary protection mission categorization helps to define the risk posture for requirements definition and implementation practices on space flight projects with planetary protection considerations. NASA has recently updated it’s planetary protection policy (NPR 8715.24), and with the update comes a major change in how the planetary protection categorization process is performed for NASA missions. Previously, projects would request the NASA Planetary Protection Officer (PPO) provide a categorization letter documenting the planetary protection category assigned to the proposed mission. Under the new policy the project manager (PM) proposes the planetary protection category for their mission. Depending on the level of the category, the PPO either concurs or recommends concurrence to the Chief of Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) before forwarding to the Mission Directorate Associate Administrator (MDAA) for final approval prior to the system requirements review (SRR). But what topics must be considered for categorization? This presentation will provide key considerations for planetary protection mission categorization including the target solar system body to be explored, the trajectory to get to the target body, and the operations to be performed at the target body. Additional unique scenarios such as secondary and auxiliary payloads, encountering other solar system bodies on the way to the target body, and sample return missions will also be discussed to share lessons learned from missions that have been through the new categorization process.

Elaine Seasly↗

NASA NTRS2024

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Resiliency with a 100% Renewable Microgrid

San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) installed America’s first and largest utility-scale microgrid in Borrego Springs in 2013. The first generation Borrego Springs Microgrid utilized diesel generators to form and stabilize the microgrid island, with support from grid-scale batteries and local solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. In this project, SDG&E in partnership with National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) demonstrated through modeling, simulation and utility field testing that blackstart and islanding of the microgrid can be led with 100% renewable, inverter based resources (IBRs), to help reduce community reliance on conventional generation resources. Through equipment upgrades, grid-forming island leader capability was transitioned to a battery IBR instead of the Borrego Springs Microgrid diesel generators. A new microgrid controller was integrated to the microgrid and programmed to control and manage multiple energy storage systems. Synchrophasor and other power quality data verified autonomous, high-speed response of the IBRs through blackstart, islanding, and load step testing. Results of project field evaluations provide distribution systems operators (DSO) with increased confidence that renewable, IBR can replace traditional generators to blackstart and island microgrids and rapidly establish stable island frequency with rapid changes in peak power demand. Importantly, the project validated the integration feasibility of a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) controller that manages multiple grid-forming and grid-following IBRs, establishing a standard design interface to reduce the complexity of integrating new DERs in the future and supporting replication by the industry. As a result of learnings in this project, SDG&E has implemented the microgrid controller strategy at multiple other microgrid sites, thereby validating the replicability of the solution. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations including power and controller HIL hardware — along with electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations of Borrego Springs Microgrid —informed adjustments to inverter parameters and were important to characterize the performance of the IBRs in relevant operating conditions before deployment. The EMT and HIL simulations of islanding the entire community are important contributions in providing confidence in IBR performance prior to future islanding of the community in the field. High-fidelity EMT and/or HIL simulation of IBRs can de-risk field operations, and its relevance and importance as a tool is increasing as distribution grids and microgrids become more complex and dynamic with an increasing proportion of renewable generation, distributed energy storage, and two-way power and energy flows.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review of Hazards and Accidentology of an Integrated Energy Systems to Nuclear Power Plant Safety

With the interconnectivity of industrial processes in a nuclear integrated energy system (IES) the primary issue becomes the safety of the nuclear power plant (NPP). The industrial processes being supported are assumed to have been in colocation prior to the addition of an NPP. Do the hazards from each process reach beyond the perimeter of the plant to affect the NPP? This paper reviews hazards and accident statistics from processes in an IES as a first step to answer this question. Hazards and accidentology discussed cover hydrogen, ammonia, syngas, methanol, synthetic fuels, and oil refineries. They include mainly fire, explosion, and toxicity in varying degrees. Historical accident statistics are given whenever available, and accident causes are evaluated and ranked based on their frequencies. Lessons learned from previous accidents are presented. Future work will focus on utilizing the data collected for accidentology of the industrial processes to perform Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and analyze the impacts of additional hazards on the colocated existing nuclear power plant or newly built advanced nuclear reactor. The analysis will provide the frequency and consequence of external events that can affect the NPP.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic Mechanisms of Superionic Na-ion Conductivity in Crystalline and Amorphous NaMOCl 4 (M = Nb, Ta) Solid Electrolytes

Sodium-ion solid electrolytes offer a sustainable route toward next-generation batteries, but few match the performance of their lithium counterparts. Halide-based NaMOCl 4 (M = Nb, Ta) has recently emerged as a promising analogue to LiMOCl 4 , yet its structure–transport relationships remain unclear due to poor crystallinity in experiments. Here, we combine density functional theory and machine-learned molecular dynamics to reveal that crystalline NaMOCl 4 exhibits negligible room-temperature conductivity with high activation barriers arising from vacancy-mediated diffusion below an order–disorder transition. Above this transition, rotational and translational motion of the [MO 2/2 Cl 4 – ] ∞ chains create new Na sites and enhances transport. In contrast, the amorphous phase inherently supports facile, three-dimensional Na diffusion through dynamic framework flexibility. These results show that ordered crystalline phases hinder ionic transport, while disorder – either thermally induced or structural – facilitates it, revising prior assumptions from the Li system and providing design principles for high-conductivity Na halide electrolytes.

Wei, Grace [University of California, Berkeley, CA↗

DOE OSTI2020

Shape Optimization for Control and Isolation of Structural Vibrations in Aerospace and Defense Applications

Among the main challenges in shape optimization is the coupling of Finite Element Method (FEM) codes in a way that facilitates efficient computation of shape derivatives. This is particularly difficult with multi-physics problems involving legacy codes, where the costs of implementing and maintaining shape derivative capabilities are prohibitive. There are two mathematically equivalent approaches to computing the shape derivative: the volume method, and the boundary method. Each has a major drawback: the boundary method is less accurate, while the volume method is more invasive to the FEM code. Prior implementations of shape derivatives at Sandia have been based on the volume method. We introduce the strip method, which computes shape derivatives on a strip adjacent to the boundary. The strip method makes code coupling simple. Like the boundary method, it queries the state and adjoint solutions at quadrature nodes, but requires no knowledge of the FEM code implementations. At the same time, it exhibits the higher accuracy of the volume method. The development of the strip method also offers us the opportunity to share some lessons learned about implementing the volume method and boundary method, to show shape optimization results on problems of interest, and to begin addressing the other main challenges at hand: constraints on optimized shapes, and their interplay with optimization algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Requirements, Resource Planning and Management for Decrewing/Recrewing Scenarios of the International Space Station

Following the failure of 44P on launch in August 2011, and the subsequent grounding of all Russian Soyuz rocket based launches, the ISS ground teams engaged in an effort to determine how long the ISS could remain crewed, what would be required to safely configure the ISS for decrewing, and what would be required to recrew the ISS upon resumption of Soyuz rocket launches if decrewing became necessary. This White Paper was written to capture the processes and lessons learned from real-time time events and to provide a reference and training document for ISS Program teams in the event decrewing of the ISS is needed. Through coordination meetings and assessments, teams identified six decrewing priorities for ground and crew operations. These priorities were integrated along with preflight priorities through the Increment replanning process. Additionally, the teams reviewed, updated, and implemented changes to the governing documentation for the configuration of the ISS for a contingency decrewing event. Steps were taken to identify critical items for disposal prior to decrewing, as well as identifying the required items to be strategically staged or flown with the astronauts and cosmonauts who would eventually recrew the ISS. After the successful launches and dockings of both 45P and 28S, the decrewing team transitioned to finalizing and publishing the documentation for standardizing the decrewing flight rules. With the continued launching of crews and cargo to the ISS, utilization and science is again a high priority, with the Increment pairs 29 and 30, and 31 and 32 reaching the milestone of at least 35 hours per week average utilization.

Bach, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering New Physics in the Cosmic Microwave Background: Developing Novel Theoretical Models and Machine-Learning-Powered Constraints

The search for evidence of new physics via its signatures in the cosmos is a cornerstone goal of the Office of High Energy Physics in the DOE Office of Science. Indeed, the current concordance cosmological model provides intriguing hints for beyond-the-standard-model (BSM) physics, such as dark matter and dark energy. Recently, a potential breakdown has appeared in this model, which could be initial evidence toward a further important revision in our fundamental theoretical understanding of cosmology. This breakdown is reflected in disagreements between inferences of the current expansion rate of the universe, H 0 (the Hubble constant), based on indirect, cosmological data (e.g., from the early universe) and based on direct, local measurements. Despite significant effort, a compelling new concordance cosmological model has yet to be found; achieving significant progress on this front was the first major focus of the project. Theoretical considerations indicate that if the observational discrepancies are not due to systematic errors, they strongly suggest new physics operating in the redshift range just prior to recombination, when cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons last scattered. Crucially, almost all such models produce unique signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra, which will be measured with unprecedented precision by ongoing and upcoming experiments, including the DOE-supported CMB-S4 project. However, these subtle hints of new physics must be uncovered from beneath a swath of Galactic and extragalactic foreground contamination. Current CMB analysis methods, although powerful, do not optimally infer the CMB power spectrum in the presence of non-Gaussian foregrounds. There is thus scope for theoretical improvement in this foundational challenge of cosmological inference, which formed the second major focus of the project. The primary objectives of the project were two-fold: (1) to develop new theoretical models in cosmology that can restore concordance amongst the full suite of cosmological data sets, thereby potentially providing evidence of novel BSM physics; (2) to develop new theoretical machinery to enable significant sensitivity improvements in searches for new physics in cosmology, particularly via the CMB power spectrum. The two objectives are intertwined, as the analysis methodology improvements in (2) will enable the tightest possible constraints on the signatures of new physics predicted by the novel scenarios in (1). The theoretical approaches to restore concordance focused on models involving novel scalar field dynamics in the pre-recombination universe (the “early dark energy” scenario and modifications thereof), as well as couplings between this field and other components in the standard cosmological model, such as dark matter. We also studied a model featuring a generalization of the decaying dark matter scenario, in which a sub-component of dark matter converts into dark radiation at late times in cosmic history. While these ideas are mostly driven by phenomenological considerations, this tactic has proven extremely successful in cosmology throughout the past few decades, including in the early history of evidence for dark matter and dark energy. The new theoretical machinery envisioned in (2) is undergirded by developments in signal processing and machine learning, which will enable improvements in CMB power spectrum estimation in the presence of non-Gaussian foreground contaminants. In turn, this will yield optimal sensitivity in searches for new physics in the CMB, by maximizing the cosmological information that is extracted from this observable. The most ambitious outcome of this work would be the construction of a new cosmological model that restores concordance amongst data sets. Although the individual models studied here did not fully achieve that goal, significant progress in narrowing down the model space was made, as described below. Moreover, the outcome of the methodological improvements in (2) will significantly impact a wide range of theoretical cosmology, by enabling the tightest possible constraints on any model that leaves novel signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Predictions of Cockpit Simulator Experimental Outcome Using System Models

This study involved predicting the outcome of a cockpit simulator experiment where pilots used cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. The experiments were run on the NASA Ames Research Center multicab cockpit simulator facility. Prior to the experiments, a mathematical model of the pilot/aircraft/CDTI flight system was developed which included relative in-trail and vertical dynamics between aircraft in the approach string. This model was used to construct a digital simulation of the string dynamics including response to initial position errors. The model was then used to predict the outcome of the in-trail following cockpit simulator experiments. Outcome included performance and sensitivity to different separation criteria. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are noted.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Requirements, Resource Planning, and Management for Decrewing/Recrewing Scenarios of the International Space Station

Following the failure of 44 Progress (44P) on launch in August 2011, and the subsequent grounding of all Russian Soyuz rocket based launches, the International Space Station (ISS) ground teams engaged in an effort to determine how long the ISS could remain crewed, what would be required to safely configure the ISS for decrewing, and what would be required to recrew the ISS upon resumption of Soyuz rocket launches if decrewing became necessary. This White Paper was written to capture the processes and lessons learned from real-time time events and to provide a reference and training document for ISS Program teams in the event decrewing of the ISS is needed. Through coordination meetings and assessments, teams identified six decrewing priorities for ground and crew operations. These priorities were integrated along with preflight priorities through the Increment re-planning process. Additionally, the teams reviewed, updated, and implemented changes to the governing documentation for the configuration of the ISS for a contingency decrewing event. Steps were taken to identify critical items for disposal prior to decrewing, as well as identifying the required items to be strategically staged or flown with the astronauts and cosmonauts who would eventually recrew the ISS. After the successful launches and dockings of both 45P and 28 Soyuz (28S), the decrewing team transitioned to finalizing and publishing the documentation for standardizing the decrewing flight rules. With the continued launching of crews and cargo to the ISS, utilization and science is again a high priority; both Increment pairs 29 and 30, and Increment 31 and 32 reaching the milestone of at least 35 hours per week average utilization.

Bach, David A.↗