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At least 775 records · Page 43

A Novel Method for Characterizing Spacesuit Mobility Through Metabolic Cost

Historically, spacesuit mobility has been characterized by directly measuring both range of motion and joint torque of individual anatomic joints. The work detailed herein aims to improve on this method, which is often prone to uncertainly, lack of repeatability, and a general lack of applicability to real-world functional tasks. Specifically, the goal of this work is to characterize suited mobility performance by directly measuring the metabolic performance of the occupant. Pilot testing was conducted in 2013, employing three subjects performing a range of functional tasks in two different suits prototypes, the Mark III and Z-1. Cursory analysis of the results shows the approach has merit, with consistent performance trends toward one suit over the other. Forward work includes the need to look at more subjects, a refined task set, and another suit in a different mass/mobility regime to validate the approach.

McFarland, Shane M.↗

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

GDEWS↗

ldentifying Episodes of Earth Science Phenomena Using a Big-Data Technology

A significant portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- (or event-) based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. We have constructed a prototype Automated Event Service (AES) system that is used to methodically mine custom-defined events in the reanalysis data sets of atmospheric general circulation models. Our AES will enable researchers to specify their custom, numeric event criteria using a user-friendly web interface to search the reanalysis data sets. Moreover, we have included a social component to enable dynamic formation of collaboration groups for researchers to cooperate on event definitions of common interest and for the analysis of these events. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon (ES phenomenon). A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an El Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon, and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a duration (often finite) and an associated geo-location as a function of time; it's therefore an entity embedded in four-dimensional (4D) spatiotemporal space. Earth Science phenomena with the potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life often rivet the attention of researchers. But, broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger, such as land/sea breezes. Due to Earth System's intricate dynamics, we are continuously discovering novel ES phenomena. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events. This process usually begins by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, as mentioned previously, comprehensive records only exist for a very limited set of high-impact phenomena; aside from these, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. The reason for the lack of comprehensive records for most of the ES phenomena is mainly due to the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property. Thus they are not consistently tracked, monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack precise and/or commonly accepted criteria for definitions. Moreover, various Earth Science observations and data have accumulated to a previously unfathomable volume; NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data, which are steadily increasing. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. We have not only envisioned AES as an environment for identifying customdefined events but also aspired for it to be an interactive environment with quick turnaround time for revisions of query criteria and results, as well as a collaborative environment where geographically distributed experts may work together on the same phenomena. A Big Data technology is thus required for the realization of such a system. In the following, we first introduce the technology selected for AES in the next section. We then demonstrate the utility of AES using a use case, Blizzard, before we conclude.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen↗

Reply to Comment by Cole-dai Et Al. on "Climatic Impact of the Long-lasting Laki Eruption: Inapplicability of Mass-independent Sulfur Isotope Composition Measurements"

Here we respond to the comments by Cole-Dai et al. [2014] on our article Schmidt et al. [2012]. Specifically, in response to section 2 of their reply, we argued in Schmidt et al. [2012] that based on previously published estimates of the volatile release height during the 1783-1784 C.E. Laki eruption, the lack of a sulfur massindependent fractionation (MIF) anomaly is expected. In other words, no previous study on Laki ever argued that this eruption emitted SO2 into altitudes >13-15 km. In section 2.3, Cole-Dai et al. [2014] argue that the nonzero Δ33S value of their Laki sample 1 may be explained by a short-lived explosive phase at Laki during which volatiles reached the stratosphere. In Schmidt et al. [2012] in section 2, we argued in agreement with Cole-Dai et al. [2014] (section 3.1) that for a MIF anomaly to be preserved, the Laki volatiles would have had to be emitted in >20 km altitude. Our main point is that eruption column heights >20 km are unlikely based on the historical accounts and plume-rise modeling for the Laki eruption [Stothers et al., 1986; Woods, 1993; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. In Schmidt et al. [2012], we argued that to deduce a short-lived climatic impact of the Laki eruption based on the lack of a MIF anomaly and the length of the sulfate deposition in Greenland ice cores may be misleading because the climatic impact will outlast the radiative forcing of the Laki aerosol cloud. Cole-Dai et al. [2014] acknowledge the latter in their reply in section 4.2. We agreewith Cole-Dai et al. [2014] in that themagnitude and length of the climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784 depends on the altitude of the volatile release during the eruption (sections 2.3 and 4.2). However, even if we assumed that during Laki all sulfur dioxide (SO2) would have been released in the troposphere, then the aerosol cloud would still be present in the upper troposphere during March 1784, as is evident from independent model simulations of this "tropospheric-only" scenario [Stevenson et al., 2003]. We acknowledge that there is uncertainty on the volatile release height for Laki; however, it is worth considering that those climate model simulations that used an injection altitude between 9 km and 13 km for the Laki SO2 [Highwood and Stevenson, 2003; Oman et al., 2006a, 2006b; Schmidt et al., 2012] best match the observed temperature changes during summer of 1783 [Angell and Korshover, 1985; Brázdil et al., 2010; Briffa et al., 1998; D'Arrigo and Jacoby, 1999; Jacoby et al., 1999; Kington, 1988; Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. Based on these model simulations, a climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784, albeit weaker than during the climactic phases of Laki, is expected (and our argument here does not exclude the role of natural variability in contributing to the cold winter of 1783-1784 as discussed in Schmidt et al. [2012]). Therefore, we continue to argue that for high-latitude eruptions such as Laki, the applicability of sulfur isotopic measurements to interpret the climatic relevance has yet to be demonstrated. Itmay transpire that the interpretation of MIF signals for the climate-relevance of an eruption is valid and unambiguous only for short-lived explosive eruptions in the tropics. In terms of the processes producing a MIF anomaly (section 3.3 in Cole-Dai et al. [2014]), the works by Hattori et al. [2013] and Ono et al. [2013] suggest that there are remaining issues not discussed by Cole-Dai et al. [2014], for instance, self-shielding of SO2 due to high column densities typical for eruptions of Pinatubo-scale and greater, and the preservation of the MIF signature in general.

general circulation model↗

Central Africa Energy: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Explore Flared Gas as an Energy Source Alternative to Biomass in Central Africa

Much of Central Africa's economy is centered on oil production. Oil deposits lie below vast amounts of compressed natural gas. The latter is often flared off during oil extraction due to a lack of the infrastructure needed to utilize it for productive energy generation. Though gas flaring is discouraged by many due to its contributions to greenhouse emissions, it represents a waste process and is rarely tracked or recorded in this region. In contrast to this energy waste, roughly 80% of Africa's population lacks access to electricity and in turn uses biomass such as wood for heat and light. In addition to the dangers incurred from collecting and using biomass, the practice commonly leads to ecological change through the acquisition of wood from forests surrounding urban areas. The objective of this project was to gain insight on domestic energy usage in Central Africa, specifically Angola, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This was done through an analysis of deforestation, an estimation of gas flared, and a suitability study for the infrastructure needed to realize the natural gas resources. The energy from potential natural gas production was compared to the energy equivalent of the biomass being harvested. A site suitability study for natural gas pipeline routes from flare sites to populous locations was conducted to assess the feasibility of utilizing natural gas for domestic energy needs. Analyses and results were shared with project partners, as well as this project's open source approach to assessing the energy sector. Ultimately, Africa's growth demands energy for its people, and natural gas is already being produced by the flourishing petroleum industry in numerous African countries. By utilizing this gas, Africa could reduce flaring, recuperate the financial and environmental loss that flaring accounts for, and unlock a plentiful domestic energy source for its people. II. Introduction Background Africa is home to numerous burgeoning economies; a significant number rely on oil production as their primary source of revenue. Relative to its size and population density, the continent has a wealth of natural resources, including oil and natural gas deposits. The exploration of these resources is not a new endeavor, but rather one that spans decades, up to a century in some places. Their resources, if realized, could provide a great means of economic and social mobility for the people of Africa. Currently, Africa represents about 12 % of the energy market, yet at the same time, consumes only 3 % of the world's energy (Kasekende 2009). The higher

Jones, Amber↗

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

Control and Non-Payload Communications Generation 1 Prototype Radio Flight Test Report

Unmanned aircraft (UA) represent a new capability that will provide a variety of services in the Government (public) and commercial (civil) aviation sectors. The growth of this potential industry has not yet been realized because of the lack of a common understanding of what is required to safely operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System (UAS in the NAS). The desire and ability to fly UA is of increasing urgency. The application of UA to perform national security, defense, scientific, and emergency management are driving the critical need for less restrictive access by UA to the NAS. Existing Federal Aviation Regulations, procedures, and technologies do not allow routine UA access to the NAS. Access to the NAS is hampered by challenges such as the lack of an onboard pilot to see and avoid other aircraft; the ability of a single pilot or operator to control multiple UA; the reliance on command and control (C2) links; the altitudes, speeds, and duration at which the aircraft fly; and the wide variation in UA size and performance. NASA is working with other Government agencies to provide solutions that reduce technical barriers and make access to the NAS routine. This goal will be accomplished through system-level integration of key concepts, technologies, or procedures and through demonstrations of these integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. This project provides an opportunity to transition the acquired empirical data and knowledge to the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders to help them define the requirements for routine UA access to the NAS.Radio communications channels for UA are currently managed through exceptions and use either Department of Defense frequencies for line-of-sight (LOS) and satellite-based communications links, low-power LOS links in amateur bands, or unlicensed Industrial/Scientific/Medical (ISM) frequencies. None of these frequency bands are designated for safety and regularity of flight. Only recently has radiofrequency (RF) spectrum been allocated by the International Telecommunications Union specifically for commercial UA C2, LOS communication (L-Band: 960 to 1164 MHz, and C-Band: 5030 to 5091 MHz). The safe and efficient integration of UA into the NAS requires the use of protected RF spectrum allocations and a new data communications system that is both secure and scalable to accommodate the potential growth of these new aircraft. Data communications for UA-referred to as control and non-payload communications (CNPC)-will be used to exchange information between a UA and a ground station (GS) to ensure safe, reliable, and effective UA flight operation. The focus of this effort is on validating and allocating new RF spectrum and data link communications to enable civil UA integration into the NAS. Through a cost-sharing cooperative agreement with Rockwell Collins, Inc., the NASA Glenn Research Center is exploring and performing the necessary development steps to realize a prototype UA CNPC system. These activities include investigating signal waveforms and access techniques, developing representative CNPC radio hardware, and executing relevant testing and validation activities. There is no intent to manufacture the CNPC end product, rather the goals are to study, demonstrate, and validate a typical CNPC system that will allow safe and efficient communications within the L-Band and C-Band spectrum allocations. The system is addressing initial "seed" requirements from RTCA, Inc., Special Committee 203 (SC-203) and is on a path to Federal Aviation Administration certification. This report provides results from the flight testing campaign of the Rockwell Collins Generation 1 prototype radio, referred hereafter as the "radio." The radio sets operate within the 960- to 977-MHz frequency band with both air and ground radios using identical hardware. Flight tests involved one aircraft and one GS. Results include discussion of aircraft flight paths and associated radio performance.

Shalkhauser, Kurt A.↗

Computational Simulations of Convergent Nozzles for the AIAA 1st Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were completed for a series of convergent nozzles in participation of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) 1st Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop. The simulations were performed using the Wind-US flow solver. Discharge and thrust coefficients were computed for four axisymmetric nozzles with nozzle pressure ratios (NPR) ranging from 1.4 to 7.0. The computed discharge coefficients showed excellent agreement with available experimental data; the computed thrust coefficients captured trends observed in the experimental data, but over-predicted the thrust coefficient by 0.25 to 1.0 percent. Sonic lines were computed for cases with NPR >= 2.0 and agreed well with experimental data for NPR >= 2.5. Simulations were also performed for a 25 deg. conic nozzle bifurcated by a flat plate at NPR = 4.0. The jet plume shock structure was compared with and without the splitter plate to the experimental data. The Wind-US simulations predicted the shock structure well, though lack of grid resolution in the plume reduced the sharpness of the shock waves. Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulations and Detached Eddy Simulations (DES) were performed at NPR = 1.6 for the 25 deg conic nozzle with splitter plate. The simulations predicted vortex shedding from the trailing edge of the splitter plate. However, the vortices of URANS and DES solutions appeared to dissipate earlier than observed experimentally. It is believed that a lack of grid resolution in the region of the vortex shedding may have caused the vortices to break down too soon

DES↗

The Optical Green Valley Versus Mid-infrared Canyon in Compact Groups

Compact groups of galaxies provide conditions similar to those experienced by galaxies in the earlier universe. Recent work on compact groups has led to the discovery of a dearth of mid-infrared transition galaxies (MIRTGs) in Infrared Array Camera (3.6-8.0 micrometers) color space as well as at intermediate specific star formation rates. However, we find that in compact groups these MIRTGs have already transitioned to the optical ([g−r]) red sequence. We investigate the optical color-magnitude diagram (CMD) of 99 compact groups containing 348 galaxies and compare the optical CMD with mid-infrared (mid-IR) color space for compact group galaxies. Utilizing redshifts available from Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we identified new galaxy members for four groups. By combining optical and mid-IR data, we obtain information on both the dust and the stellar populations in compact group galaxies. We also compare with more isolated galaxies and galaxies in the Coma Cluster, which reveals that, similar to clusters, compact groups are dominated by optically red galaxies. While we find that compact group transition galaxies lie on the optical red sequence, LVL (Local Volume Legacy) + (plus) SINGS (Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey) mid-IR (infrared) transition galaxies span the range of optical colors. The dearth of mid-IR transition galaxies in compact groups may be due to a lack of moderately star-forming low mass galaxies; the relative lack of these galaxies could be due to their relatively small gravitational potential wells. This makes them more susceptible to this dynamic environment, thus causing them to more easily lose gas or be accreted by larger members.

X-rays: binaries↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Lunar Excavation Experiments in Simulant Soil Test Beds-Revisiting the Surveyor Geotechnical Data

(1) Establishing ISRU technologies on planetary bodies is an important long-term goal of NASA; (2) Excavation is a key component of these ISRU processes; (3) Lack of flight data relevant to lunar excavation; (4) Existing models of the excavation-cutting phenomenon give varying results; (5) The lack of predictive models of the dynamic behavior of soils in excavation implements is a major driver for these studies; and (6) Objective: Need to develop robust models of excavation cutting phenomena that generate predictive capabilities to aid the designer and engineer.

Agui, Juan H.↗

Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

Terrier, Douglas↗

Characterizing Young Giant Planets with the Gemini Planet Imager: An Iterative Approach to Planet Characterization

After discovery, the first task of exoplanet science is characterization. However experience has shown that the limited spectral range and resolution of most directly imaged exoplanet data requires an iterative approach to spectral modeling. Simple, brown dwarf-like models, must first be tested to ascertain if they are both adequate to reproduce the available data and consistent with additional constraints, including the age of the system and available limits on the planet's mass and luminosity, if any. When agreement is lacking, progressively more complex solutions must be considered, including non-solar composition, partial cloudiness, and disequilibrium chemistry. Such additional complexity must be balanced against an understanding of the limitations of the atmospheric models themselves. For example while great strides have been made in improving the opacities of important molecules, particularly NH3 and CH4, at high temperatures, much more work is needed to understand the opacity of atomic Na and K. The highly pressure broadened fundamental band of Na and K in the optical stretches into the near-infrared, strongly influencing the spectral shape of Y and J spectral bands. Discerning gravity and atmospheric composition is difficult, if not impossible, without both good atomic opacities as well as an excellent understanding of the relevant atmospheric chemistry. I will present examples of the iterative process of directly imaged exoplanet characterization as applied to both known and potentially newly discovered exoplanets with a focus on constraints provided by GPI spectra. If a new GPI planet is lacking, as a case study I will discuss HR 8799 c and d will explain why some solutions, such as spatially inhomogeneous cloudiness, introduce their own additional layers of complexity. If spectra of new planets from GPI are available I will explain the modeling process in the context of understanding these new worlds.

exoplanets↗

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Regional Climate Model↗

A Historical Perspective on Primary and Possible Secondary Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Atmospheric sources of Carbon Tetrachloride (CTC) have been controversial since its detection in the early 1970. Initial proposals were that it is globally uniformly distributed and its lack of current emissions and inferred lifetime indicated that it was likely of natural origin. Historical analysis of CTC use and emissions showed that atmospheric CTC was long-lived and mainly of man-made origin although small natural sources and sinks (e. g. oceans) could not be ruled out. This deduction was hard because a majority of emissions had occurred in early part of the 20th century when CTC was commonly used as a fumigant, a solvent, and a raw material for the manufacture of many chemicals. In the 1940's adverse health effects of exposure to CTC became evident and its emissions were greatly curtailed and substituted with C2Cl4 which was thought to be much safer. There were smog chamber studies that showed that C2Cl4, a widely used solvent during the late 20th century, could produce CTC with up to a 7% yield. Subsequently it was discovered that this chemistry probably required Cl atoms and since Cl atoms were not abundant in the atmosphere actual yields based on OH oxidation were probably closer to 0.1%. CTC was subsequently banned by the Montreal Protocol to prevent stratospheric ozone depletion and its preferred substitute C2Cl4 was also banned by EPA for reasons of potential carcinogenicity and toxicity. CTC since has been measured in many airborne NASA campaigns in which plumes have been sampled from a variety of regions which may still be emitting CTC. I will briefly discuss this historical perspective of CTC and show some recent data that may shed light on its current sources or lack there off.

atmosphere↗

Petrogenesis of Igneous-Textured Clasts in Martian Meteorite Northwest Africa 7034

The martian meteorite Northwest Africa 7034 (and pairings) is a breccia that samples a variety of materials from the martian crust. Several previous studies have identified multiple types of igneous-textured clasts within the breccia [1-3], and these clasts have the potential to provide insight into the igneous evolution of Mars. One challenge presented by studying these small rock fragments is the lack of field context for this breccia (i.e., where on Mars it formed), so we do not know how many sources these small rock fragments are derived from or the exact formation his-tory of these sources (i.e., are the sources mantle de-rived melt or melts contaminated by a meteorite impactor on Mars). Our goal in this study is to examine specific igneous-textured clast groups to determine if they are petrogenetically related (i.e., from the same igneous source) and determine more information about their formation history, then use them to derive new insights about the igneous history of Mars. We will focus on the basalt clasts, FTP clasts (named due to their high concentration of iron, titanium, and phosphorous), and mineral fragments described by [1] (Fig. 1). We will examine these materials for evidence of impactor contamination (as proposed for some materials by [2]) or mantle melt derivation. We will also test the petrogenetic models proposed in [1], which are igneous processes that could have occurred regardless of where the melt parental to the clasts was formed. These models include 1) derivation of the FTP clasts from a basalt clast melt through silicate liquid immiscibility (SLI), 2) derivation of the FTP clasts from a basalt clast melt through fractional crystallization, and 3) a lack of petrogenetic relationship between these clast groups. The relationship between the clast groups and the mineral fragments will also be explored.

Santos, A. R.↗