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DOE OSTI2013

Revisiting the Long-Term Hedge Value of Wind Power in an Era of Low Natural Gas Prices

Expanding production of the United States’ vast shale gas reserves in recent years has put the country on a path towards greater energy independence, enhanced economic prosperity, and (potentially) reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The corresponding expansion of gas-fired generation in the power sector – driven primarily by lower natural gas prices – has also made it easier and cheaper to integrate large amounts of variable renewable generation, such as wind power, into the grid. At the same time, however, low natural gas prices have suppressed wholesale power prices across the nation, making it harder for wind and other renewable power technologies to compete on cost alone – even despite their recent cost and performance improvements. A near-term softening in policy-driven demand from state-level renewable energy mandates, coupled with a possible phase-out of a key federal tax incentive over time, may exacerbate wind’s challenge in the coming years. As wind power finds it more difficult to compete with gas-fired generation on the basis of near-term cost, it will increasingly need to rely on other attributes, such as its “portfolio” or “hedge” value, as justification for inclusion in the power mix. This article investigates the degree to which wind power can still serve as a cost-effective hedge against rising natural gas prices, given the significant reduction in gas prices in recent years, coupled with expectations that prices will remain low for many years to come. It does so by drawing upon a rich sample of long-term power purchase agreements (“PPAs”) between existing wind generators and electric utilities in the U.S., and comparing the contracted prices at which utilities will be buying wind power from these existing projects for decades to come to a variety of long-term projections of the fuel costs of gas-fired generation modeled by the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Emerging Energy-efficiency and Carbon Dioxide Emissions-reduction Technologies for the Iron and Steel Industry

Iron and steel manufacturing is among the most energy-intensive industries and accounts for the largest share, approximately 27 percent, of global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the manufacturing sector. The ongoing increase in world steel demand means that this industry’s energy use and CO 2 emissions continue to grow, so there is significant incentive to develop, commercialize and adopt emerging energy-efficiency and CO 2 emissions-reduction technologies for steel production. Although studies from around the world have identified a wide range of energy-efficiency technologies applicable to the steel industry that have already been commercialized, information is limited and/or scattered regarding emerging or advanced energy-efficiency and low-carbon technologies that are not yet commercialized. This report consolidates available information on 56 emerging iron and steel industry technologies, with the intent of providing a well-structured database of information on these technologies for engineers, researchers, investors, steel companies, policy makers, and other interested parties. For each technology included, we provide information on energy savings and environmental and other benefits, costs, and commercialization status; we also identify references for more information.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Selling Into the Sun: Price Premium Analysis of a Multi-State Dataset of Solar Homes

Capturing the value that solar photovoltaic (PV) systems may add to home sales transactions is increasingly important. Our study enhances the PV-home-valuation literature by more than doubling the number of PV home sales analyzed (22,822 homes in total, 3,951 of which are PV) and examining transactions in eight states that span the years 2002–2013. We find that home buyers are consistently willing to pay PV home premiums across various states, housing and PV markets, and home types; average premiums across the full sample equate to approximately $4/W or $15,000 for an average-sized 3.6-kW PV system. Only a small and non-statistically significant difference exists between PV premiums for new and existing homes, though some evidence exists of new home PV system discounting. A PV green cachet might exist, i.e., home buyers might pay a certain amount for any size of PV system and some increment more depending on system size. The market appears to depreciate the value of PV systems in their first 10 years at a rate exceeding the rate of PV efficiency losses and the rate of straightline depreciation over the asset’s useful life. Net cost estimates—which account for government and utility PV incentives—may be the best proxy for market premiums, but income-based estimates may perform equally well if they accurately account for the complicated retail rate structures that exist in some states. Although this study focuses only on host-owned PV systems, future analysis should focus on homes with third-party-owned PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Tracking the Sun V: An Historical Summary of the Installed Price of Photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2011

As the deployment of grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased, so too has the desire to track the installed price of these systems over time and by location, customer type, and system characteristics. This report helps to fill this need by summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected PV systems in the United States from 1998 through 2011, with preliminary data for 2012. The analysis is based on project-level data for more than 150,000 individual residential, commercial, and utility-scale PV systems, totaling more than 3,000 megawatts (MW) and representing 76% of all grid-connected PV capacity installed in the United States through 2011. The report describes installed price trends for residential and commercial PV systems, and another set of trends for utility-scale PV. In all cases, installed prices are identified in terms of real 2011 dollars per installed watt (DC-STC), prior to receipt of any direct financial incentives or tax credits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Demand Response Resources

While the traditional goal of an electric power system has been to control supply to fulfill demand, the demand-side can plan an active role in power systems via Demand Response (DR), defined by the Department of Energy (DOE) as “a tariff or program established to motivate changes in electric use by end-use customers in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to give incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high market prices or when grid reliability is jeopardized” [29]. DR can provide a variety of benefits including reducing peak electric loads when the power system is stressed and fast timescale energy balancing. Therefore, DR can improve grid reliability and reduce wholesale energy prices and their volatility. This dissertation focuses on analyzing both recent and emerging DR paradigms. Recent DR programs have focused on peak load reduction in commercial buildings and industrial facilities (C&I facilities). We present methods for using 15-minute-interval electric load data, commonly available from C&I facilities, to help building managers understand building energy consumption and ‘ask the right questions’ to discover opportunities for DR. Additionally, we present a regression-based model of whole building electric load, i.e., a baseline model, which allows us to quantify DR performance. We use this baseline model to understand the performance of 38 C&I facilities participating in an automated dynamic pricing DR program in California. In this program, facilities are expected to exhibit the same response each DR event. We find that baseline model error makes it difficult to precisely quantify changes in electricity consumption and understand if C&I facilities exhibit event-to-event variability in their response to DR signals. Therefore, we present a method to compute baseline model error and a metric to determine how much observed DR variability results from baseline model error rather than real variability in response. We find that, in general, baseline model error is large. Though some facilities exhibit real DR variability, most observed variability results from baseline model error. In some cases, however, aggregations of C&I facilities exhibit real DR variability, which could create challenges for power system operation. These results have implications for DR program design and deployment. Emerging DR paradigms focus on faster timescale DR. Here, we investigate methods to coordinate aggregations of residential thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), including air conditioners and refrigerators, to manage frequency and energy imbalances in power systems. We focus on opportunities to centrally control loads with high accuracy but low requirements for sensing and communications infrastructure. Specifically, we compare cases when measured load state information (e.g., power consumption and temperature) is 1) available in real time; 2) available, but not in real time; and 3) not available. We develop Markov Chain models to describe the temperature state evolution of heterogeneous populations of TCLs, and use Kalman filtering for both state and joint parameter/state estimation. We present a look-ahead proportional controller to broadcast control signals to all TCLs, which always remain in their temperature dead-band. Simulations indicate that it is possible to achieve power tracking RMS errors in the range of 0.26–9.3% of steady state aggregated power consumption. Results depend upon the information available for system identification, state estimation, and control. We find that, depending upon the performance required, TCLs may not need to provide state information to the central controller in real time or at all. We also estimate the size of the TCL potential resource; potential revenue from participation in markets; and break-even costs associated with deploying DR-enabling technologies. We find that current TCL energy storage capacity in California is 8–11 GWh, with refrigerators contributing the most. Annual revenues from participation in regulation vary from $10 to $220 per TCL per year depending upon the type of TCL and climate zone, while load following and arbitrage revenues are more modest at $2 to $35 per TCL per year. These results lead to a number of policy recommendations that will make it easier to engage residential loads in fast timescale DR.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

How Do The EV Project Participants Feel about Charging Their EV at Home?

Key Observations from the Survey of the EV Project Participants; In June 2013, 72% of EV Project participants were very satisfied with their home charging experience; 21% of participants relied totally on home charging for all of their charging needs; Volt owners relied more on home charging than Leaf owners, who reported more use of away-from-home charging; 74% of participants reported that they plug in their plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) every time they park at home. Others plugged in as they determined necessary to support their driving needs; 40% of participants reported that they would not have or are unsure that in June 2013 whether they would have purchased an alternating current (AC) Level 2 electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) for home charging if it had not been provided by The EV Project; and 61% of participants reported that The EV Project incentive was very important or important in their decision to obtain a PEV.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment

This report documents work performed in support of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) program. The report presents information and results from economic analyses to describe current electricity market conditions and those key factors that may impact the deployment of AdvSMRs or any other new nuclear power plants. Thus, this report serves as a reference document for DOE as it moves forward with its plans to develop advanced reactors, including AdvSMRs. For the purpose of this analysis, information on electricity markets and nuclear power plant operating costs will be combined to examine the current state of the nuclear industry and the process required to successfully move forward with new nuclear power in general and AdvSMRs in particular. The current electricity market is generally unfavorable to new nuclear construction, especially in deregulated markets with heavy competition from natural gas and subsidized renewables. The successful and profitable operation of a nuclear power plant (or any power plant) requires the rate at which the electricity is sold to be sufficiently greater than the cost to operate. The wholesale rates in most US markets have settled into values that provide profits for most operating nuclear power plants but are too low to support the added cost of capital recovery for new nuclear construction. There is a strong geographic dependence on the wholesale rate, with some markets currently able to support new nuclear construction. However, there is also a strong geographic dependence on pronuclear public opinion; the areas where power prices are high tend to have unfavorable views on the construction of new nuclear power plants. The use of government-backed incentives, such as subsidies, can help provide a margin to help justify construction projects that otherwise may not seem viable. Similarly, low interest rates for the project will also add a positive margin to the economic analysis. In both cases, the profitable price point is decreased, making more markets open to profitable entry. Overall, the economic attractiveness of a nuclear power construction project is not only a function of its own costs, but a function of the market into which it is deployed. Many of the market characteristics are out of the control of the potential nuclear power plant operators. The decision-making process for the power industry in general is complicated by the short-term market volatility in both the wholesale electricity market and the commodity (natural gas) market. Decisions based on market conditions today may be rendered null and void in six months. With a multiple-year lead time, nuclear power plants are acutely vulnerable to market corrections.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Clean Cities Strategic Planning White Paper: Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy

Increasing the energy efficiency of motor vehicles is critical to achieving national energy goals of reduced petroleum dependence, protecting the global climate, and promoting continued economic prosperity. Even with fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards and various economic incentives for clean and efficient vehicles, providing reliable and accurate fuel economy information to the public is important to achieving these goals. This white paper reviews the current status of light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States and the role of the Department of Energy (DOE) Clean Cities Program in disseminating fuel economy information to the public.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Drought-tolerant Biofuel Crops could be a Critical Hedge for Biorefineries

Numerous researchers and policymakers have raised concerns over the adverse effects that growing bioenergy crops on prime agricultural land has on food prices, carbon balances, water demand and environmental health. Biofuel policies such as the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the second US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) already regulate biofuels for carbon emissions that occur due to indirect land use change. Biofuel producers can address these concerns and sidestep steep penalties for indirect land use change if they grow biofuel crops on land that has little or no economic value. The focus of most biofuel research over the last decade has been the development of biofuels from cellulosic feedstocks. It has been argued that deriving biofuels from non-food biomass, like switchgrass, and growing the crop on low value land would minimize competition with food production. Moreover, using non-irrigated rain-fed feedstocks can substantially reduce the lifecycle footprint of cellulosic biofuels. This has motivated scientists to study if biofuel crops can be genetically engineered to thrive on low-value, marginal lands. One example is the development of switchgrass genomics designed to enhance productivity. For a biofuel business, investing in the development of a product in expectation of a specific policy regime (i.e. the regulation of land use in fuel policy) is fraught with risk. While we believe that all fuel policies worldwide should reward biofuel crops grown on land that has little or no potential for growing food crops, there is good reason to believe that such globally coordinated policy on the subject of land use is unlikely. Hence, in this article, we assess the economic benefits of drought-tolerant switchgrass that may accrue to biofuel businesses independent of any incentives for the use of marginal land. The frequency of extreme weather and drought has increased in the U.S. over the last decade. While some researchers estimate that droughts are decreasing in severity and duration, most climate scientists report that advancing climate change is expected to worsen droughts throughout the U.S., especially in the Midwest, which is the nation’s largest producer of food crops. Scientists are increasingly convinced that climate change is leading to warmer extremes including severity of precipitation extremes. In the more likely scenario of worsening drought, we find that drought-tolerance of the cellulosic crop is critical for the biofuel industry to remain competitive, irrespective of whether the crop is grown on marginal or prime agricultural land. In other words, we find that over the lifetime of a typical biorefinery, there could be one or more years when a crop is likely to be severely diminished due to drought conditions, thereby driving cellulosic ethanol prices substantially higher than would otherwise be the case.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Final Review of the Campbell Creek Demonstrations Showcased by Tennessee Valley Authority

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Technology Innovation, Energy Efficiency, Power Delivery and Utilization Office funded and managed a showcase demonstration located in the suburbs of west Knox county, Tennessee. Work started March 2008 with the goal of documenting best practices for retrofitting existing homes and for building new high-efficiency homes. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) provided technical support. An analytical base was developed for helping homeowners, homebuyers, builders, practitioners and the TVA make informed economic decisions for the materials and incentives necessary to build a new high-efficiency home or retrofit an existing home. New approaches to more efficiently control active energy subsystems and information for selecting or upgrading to Energy Star appliances, changing all lights to 100% CFL s and upgrading windows to low-E gas filled glazing yields a 40% energy savings with neutral cash flow for the homeowner. Passive designs were reviewed and recommendations made for envelope construction that is durable and energy efficient. The Campbell Creek project complements the DOE Building Technologies Program strategic goal. Results of the project created technologies and design approaches that will yield affordable energy efficient homes. The 2010 DOE retrofit goals are to find retrofit packages that attain 30% whole house energy savings as documented by pre and post Home Energy rating scores (HERS). Campbell Creek met these goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Controlling Methane Emissions in the Natural Gas Sector. A Review of Federal and State Regulatory Frameworks Governing Production, Gathering, Processing, Transmission, and Distribution

This report provides an overview of the regulatory frameworks governing natural gas supply chain infrastructure siting, construction, operation, and maintenance. Information was drawn from a number of sources, including published analyses, government reports, in addition to relevant statutes, court decisions and regulatory language, as needed. The scope includes all onshore facilities that contribute to methane emissions from the natural gas sector, focusing on three areas of state and federal regulations: (1) natural gas pipeline infrastructure siting and transportation service (including gathering, transmission, and distribution pipelines), (2) natural gas pipeline safety, and (3) air emissions associated with the natural gas supply chain. In addition, the report identifies the incentives under current regulatory frameworks to invest in measures to reduce leakage, as well as the barriers facing investment in infrastructure improvement to reduce leakage. Policy recommendations regarding how federal or state authorities could regulate methane emissions are not provided; rather, existing frameworks are identified and some of the options for modifying existing regulations or adopting new regulations to reduce methane leakage are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Implementing a Zero Energy Ready Home Multifamily Project

Building cost-effective, high-performance homes that provide superior comfort, health, and durability is the goal of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Zero Energy Ready Home (ZERH) program. Building America research and other innovative programs throughout the country have addressed many of the technical challenges of building to the ZERH standard. The cost-effectiveness of measure packages that result in 30% source energy savings compared to a code-compliant home have been demonstrated. However, additional challenges remain, particularly with respect to convincing production builders of the strong business case for ZERH. The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) team believes that the keys to successfully engaging builders and developers in the California market are to help them leverage development agreement requirements, code compliance requirements, incentives, and competitive market advantages of ZERH certification, and navigate through this process. A primary objective of this project was to gain a highly visible foothold for residential buildings that are built to the DOE ZERH specification that can be used to encourage participation by other California builders. This report briefly describes two single-family homes that were ZERH certified and focuses on the experience of working with developer Mutual Housing on a 62-unit multifamily community at the Spring Lake subdivision in Woodland, California. The Spring Lake project is expected to be the first ZERH-certified multifamily project in the country. This report discusses the challenges encountered, lessons learned, and how obstacles were overcome.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States. Methodology and Initial Results

This report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, may be defined in several ways. For example, one definition might be expected revenues (based on local market prices) minus generation costs, considered over the expected lifetime of the generation asset. Another definition might be generation costs relative to a benchmark (e.g., a natural gas combined cycle plant) using assumptions of fuel prices, capital cost, and plant efficiency. Economic potential in this report is defined as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity. The assessment is conducted at a high geospatial resolution (more than 150,000 technology-specific sites in the continental United States) to capture the significant variation in local resource, costs, and revenue potential. This metric can be a useful screening factor for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation technologies at a specific location. In contrast to many common estimates of renewable energy potential, economic potential does not consider market dynamics, customer demand, or most policy drivers that may incent renewable energy generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

2014 Wind Technologies Market Report

Wind power capacity additions in the United States rebounded in 2014, and continued growth through 2016 is anticipated. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—which is available for projects that began construction by the end of 2014. Wind additions are also being driven by recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, which have resulted in the lowest power sales prices ever seen in the U.S. wind sector. Growing corporate demand for wind energy and state-level policies play important roles as well. Expectations for continued technological advancements and cost reductions may further boost future growth. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond 2016 are uncertain. The PTC has expired, and its renewal remains in question. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on growth expectations. These trends, in combination with increasingly global supply chains, have limited the growth of domestic manufacturing of wind equipment. What they mean for wind power additions through the end of the decade and beyond will be dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

§1603 Treasury Grant Expiration: Industry Insight on Financing and Market Implications

In the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crises, tax equity investors largely withdrew from the market, resulting in stagnation of project development. In response, Congress established the Treasury grant program pursuant to Section 1603 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Section 1603 Program) to offer a cash payment in lieu of a production and investment tax credit. This study addresses the likely project financing and market impacts from the expiration of the Section 1603 Program. The authors assembled an array of insights offered by financial executives active in the renewable energy (RE) market during conference panel discussions and in presentations, direct interviews, and email correspondences. This analysis found that the Section 1603 Program alleviated the need to monetize the tax credit incentives through specialized investors, helped lower the transaction and financing costs associated with renewable electricity projects, and generally supported an extensive build-out of renewable power generation capacity. With the expiration of the Section 1603 Program, smaller or less-established renewable power developers will have more difficulty attracting needed financial capital and completing their projects, development of projects relying on newer or 'innovative' technologies will likely slow as traditional tax equity investors are known to be highly averse to technology risk in the projects they fund, and, finally, projects relying on tax equity may be more expensive to develop due to higher transaction costs and potentially higher yields required to attract tax equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Retrofit Audits and Cost Estimates: A Look at Quality and Consistency

Retrofit NYC Block by Block is an outreach program targeting owners of one- to four-family homes, the most common building type in New York City, with more than 600,000 structures citywide. Administered by the Pratt Center for Community Development and implemented by four nonprofit, community-based organizations, Block by Block connects residents, businesses, and religious and civic organizations in predominantly low-and moderate-income neighborhoods with one or more of a half-dozen public and private financial incentive programs that facilitate energy-efficiency retrofits. This research project sought to evaluate the approach, effectiveness, and the energy use reductions accomplished by the Retrofit NYC: Block by Block program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. This report describes the Bay Ridge project, a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). Findings from the short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Non-Cost Barriers to Consumer Adoption of New Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies

Consumer preferences are key to the adoption of new vehicle technologies. Barriers to consumer adoption include price and other obstacles, such as limited driving range and charging infrastructure; unfamiliarity with the technology and uncertainty about direct benefits; limited makes and models with the technology; reputation or perception of the technology; standardization issues; and regulations. For each of these non-cost barriers, this report estimates an effective cost and summarizes underlying influences on consumer preferences, approximate magnitude and relative severity, and assesses potential actions, based on a comprehensive literature review. While the report concludes that non-cost barriers are significant, effective cost and potential market share are very uncertain. Policies and programs including opportunities for drivers to test drive advanced vehicles, general public outreach and information programs, incentives for providing charging and fueling infrastructure, and development of technology standards were examined for their ability to address barriers, but little quantitative data exists on the effectiveness of these measures. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation. View all reports on the TEF Web page, http://www.eere.energy.gov/analysis/transportationenergyfutures/index.html.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗