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At least 775 records · Page 43

Integrated Modeling of U.S. Agricultural Soil Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen and Associated Impacts on Air Pollution, Health, and Climate

Agricultural soils are leading sources of reactive nitrogen (Nr) species including nitrogen oxides (NO x ), ammonia (NH 3 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Here, the propensity of NO x and NH 3 to generate ozone and fine particulate matter (PM) and associated impacts on health are highly variable, whereas the climate impacts of long-lived N 2 O are independent of emission timing and location. However, these impacts have rarely been compared on a spatially-resolved, monetized basis. In this study, we update the nitrogen scheme in an agroecosystem model to simulate the agricultural emissions of Nr from across the United States. We then apply a reduced-form air pollution health effects model to assess air quality impacts from NO x and NH 3 and a social cost of N 2 O to assess the climate impacts. Assuming an $\$$8.2 million Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and a $\$$13,100/ton social cost of N 2 O, the air quality impacts are a factor of ~7 to 15 times as large as the climate impacts in heavily populated coastal regions, whereas the ratios are closer to 2.5 in sparsely populated regions. Our results show that air pollution, health, and climate should be considered jointly in future assessments of how farming practices affect Nr emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A constitutive model incorporating grain refinement strengthening on metallic alloys

Surface nano-crystallization techniques have been recently developed as one of the most efficient ways to optimize materials’ structure, and therefore develop the local and global mechanical behavior as to increase strength without compromising ductility. Here, in this work, we present a constitutive model incorporating grain refinement hardening to simulate the nano-crystallization technique, specifically, surface mechanical attrition treatment. The computation is implemented using user-defined VUMAT subroutines. As an example of its application, a geometry model with full coverage of random impacts are employed. The results show that the model has rather precise predictability of grain size evolution during plastic deformation. The readily embedded with a computational code of material dynamics enables this novel model to be a promising tool to study the dynamic evolution of microstructures under plastic deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting multi-nodal in-nozzle particle interactions in high-viscosity fluid mediums for acoustophoretic direct-ink writing of line-patterned composites

Patterned functional materials offer improved properties (electrical, thermal, etc.) over their bulk counterparts in many applications, including energy storage, flexible electronics, and sensors. However, manufacturing approaches for patterning materials over large areas with features on the order of hundreds of microns or less are limited. Acoustophoresis, which uses acoustic forces to control particle arrangement in a fluid medium, is a pathway to address this challenge. This process is dependent on particle and fluid properties and enables patterning of a broad range of materials. Herein, a model with experimental validation is presented to demonstrate that acoustophoresis can be combined with direct-ink writing (DIW) to fabricate line patterns over large cm-scale areas. An in-nozzle particle interaction model was developed to investigate the impact of processing conditions on multi-nodal acoustophoretic DIW. The model predicts patterned line widths within a factor of two relative to experimental results for a high viscosity case study. Here, the model was used to investigate the impact of frequency, particle loading, particle radius, and acoustic pressure on line width and patterning time, providing critical feedback regarding the processing conditions suitable for a target application. Model results illustrate that frequency has the greatest impact on line patterns: increasing from 1 to 3 MHz resulted in a greater than 65% reduction in line width and a greater than 85% reduction in patterning time. Additionally, experiments were conducted with an alumina-epoxy ink and a ~21 cm 2 area pattern was rastered in ~5.5 minutes, demonstrating a path towards large-area line-patterned composite fabrication.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Transmission Line Based Sensor Design for FMCW Radar Processing of Collision Damage

This report presents a framework for transmission line ( T-L ) sensor design in Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar applications, with particular emphasis on modeling collision damage effects. Classical electromagnetic (EM) propagation theory is combined with impact mechanics to develop a model for analyzing transmission line behavior as a sensor under high-velocity impact conditions. The framework includes detailed mathematical derivations, spatial and temporal damage evolution models, and practical implementation considerations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling Variable Renewable Energy and Storage in the Power Sector

The emergence of variable renewable energy and battery storage technologies have fundamentally transformed the electric power sector and generated demand for analysis to understand their roles in future energy systems. Although unique characteristics of these resources are well-recognized and require more sophisticated methodologies to capture effectively, guidance is limited on best practices and research gaps. This paper selectively reviews recent literature and draws upon our collective modeling experience to offer recommendations to analysts and consumers of model outputs on approaches for modeling variable renewable energy and storage in long-term electric sector models. We focus on regional- and national-scale models with technological, temporal, and spatial detail given their prevalence in planning and policy analysis, though insights are applicable in other settings. The review highlights how the research frontier has advanced in representing renewables and energy storage over the past decade; however, given the many considerations involved with appropriately capturing salient economic and operational characteristics of renewables, there is a gap between commonly used models and state-of-the-art methods. Model simplifications can materially impact policy analysis associated with power sector decarbonization and high renewables deployment, and improving model representations of variable renewables can enhance insights for policymakers and other stakeholders. This review can point the way for improved methods for established models and designs for emerging ones.

energy and environmental policy↗

A multi-scale cognitive interaction model of instrument operations at the Linac Coherent Light Source

The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) is the world’s first x-ray free electron laser. It is a scientific user facility operated by the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, at Stanford, for the U.S. Department of Energy. As beam time at LCLS is extremely valuable and limited, experimental efficiency—getting the most high quality data in the least time—is critical. Our overall project employs cognitive engineering methodologies with the goal of improving experimental efficiency and increasing scientific productivity at LCLS by refining experimental interfaces and workflows, simplifying tasks, reducing errors, and improving operator safety and stress. Here, in this study, we describe a multi-agent, multi-scale computational cognitive interaction model of instrument operations at LCLS. Our model simulates the aspects of human cognition at multiple cognitive and temporal scales, ranging from seconds to hours, and among agents playing multiple roles, including instrument operator, real time data analyst, and experiment manager. The model can roughly predict impacts stemming from proposed changes to operational interfaces and workflows. Example results demonstrate the model’s potential in guiding modifications to improve operational efficiency. We discuss the implications of our effort for cognitive engineering in complex experimental settings and outline future directions for research. The model is open source, and the videos of the supplementary material provide extensive detail.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Mass measurements of 60–63 Ga reduce x-ray burst model uncertainties and extend the evaluated T=1 isobaric multiplet mass equation

We report precision mass measurements of neutron-deficient gallium isotopes approaching the proton drip line. The measurements of 60–63 Ga performed with the TITAN multiple-reflection time-of-flight mass spectrometer provide a more than threefold improvement over the current literature mass uncertainty of 61 Ga and mark the first direct mass measurement of 60 Ga. The improved precision of the 61 Ga mass has important implications for the astrophysical rp process, as it constrains essential reaction Q values near the 60 Zn waiting point. Based on calculations with a one-zone model, we demonstrate the impact of the improved mass data on prediction uncertainties of x-ray burst models. The first-time measurement of the 60 Ga ground-state mass establishes the proton-bound nature of this nuclide, thus constraining the location of the proton drip line along this isotopic chain. Including the measured mass of 60 Ga further enables us to extend the evaluated T = 1 isobaric multiplet mass equation up to A = 60.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Factors Controlling a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Derived Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product over The Seward Peninsula of Alaska

Root-zone soil moisture exerts a fundamental control on vegetation, energy balance, and the carbon cycle in Arctic ecosystems, but it is still not well understood in vast, remote, and understudied regions of discontinuous permafrost. The root-zone soil moisture product (30 m resolution) used in this analysis was retrieved from a time-series P-Band (420–440 MHz) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter observations (August 2017 & October 2017). While similar approaches have been taken to retrieve surface (0 cm to 5 cm) soil moisture from L-Band (1.2 GHz) SAR backscatter, this is one of the first known attempts at reaching the root-zone in permafrost regions. Here, we analyze secondary factors (excluding primary factors, such as precipitation) controlling summer (August) soil moisture at depths of 6 cm, 12 cm, and 20 cm over a 4500 km2 area on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using a random forest model, we quantify the impact of topography, vegetation, and meteorological factors on soil moisture distributions. In developing the random forest model, we explore a variety of feature scales (30 m, 60 m, 90 m, 120 m, 180 m, and 240 m), tune hyperparameters (the structure of individual decision trees making up the ensemble including the number and depth of trees), and perform the final feature selection using cross-validated recursive feature elimination. Results suggest that root-zone soil moisture on the Seward Peninsula is primarily controlled by vegetation at 6 cm, but deeper in the soil column topography and meteorological factors, such as predominant winter wind direction and summer insolation, play a larger role. The random forest model accounts for 40% to 60% of the variation observed (R2 = 0.44 at 6 cm, R2 = 0.52 at 12 cm, R2 = 0.58 at 20 cm). These results indicate that vegetation is the dominant control on soil moisture shallow in the soil column, but the impact of vegetation does not extend to deeper layers retrieved from P-Band SAR backscatter.

Dann, Julian↗

Critical impact of experimentally-driven strut level anisotropic material models in advanced stress analysis of additively manufactured lattice structures

The rapid acceleration in materials discovery may overshadow the importance of thoroughly understanding the mechanical performance of newly developed materials in demanding environments. The recent interest in combining parametric studies with machine learning techniques to explore how changes in specific processing parameters or model inputs affect the overall behavior of a material system can only be truly beneficial if the governing constitutive relations describing material behavior are accurately established. In this study, we demonstrate the critical impact of accurately representing strut-level anisotropic material behavior in advanced stress analysis of additively manufactured lattice structures (AMLS). We introduce a systematic experimental and modeling approach for developing strut-level anisotropic elastoplastic material models that account for the influence of microstructural features such as porosity, texture, and surface roughness on the development of local anisotropic mechanical properties, which vary with strut orientation relative to the build direction (BD). As a result the presented material model captures and relates the statistics of spatially varying struts’ microstructural features to the local stress distribution. Our findings suggest that incorporating strut-level anisotropic material behavior into unit cell analysis significantly influences the load distribution and evolution of local stresses within the structure. Therefore, accounting for this anisotropy is critical for developing an understanding of unit cell behavior and performance, including subsequent topology/component design optimization based on this analysis.

Sahoo, Subhadip [University of Arizona]↗

Graded Buffer Bragg Reflectors with High Reflectivity and Transparency for Metamorphic Optoelectronics

A graded buffer Bragg reflector (GBBR) is a bifunctional device component that provides the reflection of a distributed Bragg reflector and the adjustable lattice constant of a compositionally graded buffer. Prior work showed that these properties can be combined with low threading dislocation density and high reflectivity. Here, we design and demonstrate complex GBBRs for specific metamorphic solar cell applications. We design buffers that provide (1) high reflectivity over a narrow bandwidth, for quantum well solar cells, (2) reflectivity over a wide bandwidth, for optically thin solar cells, and (3) low sidelobe reflection, for multijunction devices that demand low out-of-band reflection. Apodized and triple GBBRs are demonstrated, and transparency is always considered, requiring designs with carefully engineered material combinations. A GBBR with a reflection of 99% is demonstrated, as well as a triple GBBR that has over 80% reflection for 100?nm of the spectrum around 800?nm. We also analyze potential deviations in a baseline GBBR from that of a perfect DBR using transmission electron microscopy to analyze imperfections in the material and modeling to analyze the impact of imperfect refractive index data for lattice-mismatched AlGaInAs. Minimal crosshatch roughness and unintentional thickness variation occur throughout the buffer, which likely influences reflection slightly. Small deviations between the calculated AlGaInAs and utilized AlGaAs refractive index exist, giving methods for future GBBR improvement. While the GBBR designs are intended for metamorphic solar cells, the broad and high reflection may also be useful for other optoelectronic devices such as light-emitting diodes or lasers.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Impact of Orographic Drag Schemes on East Asia Rainfall

Current generation of climate models often has significant biases in mountainous regions where the gradient of elevation is steep, and the terrain is complex. Potential reasons for these biases include under‐representation of orographic drag process in climate models. In this study, we assess the impact of orographic drag on East Asia rainfall by comparing the impact of a new orographic drag scheme that considers 3D orographic anisotropy (3D‐oro) with a 2‐D scheme in a general circulation model. Two sets of simulations (medium‐range and seasonal forecast) are carried out for the comparison and validation against observation. It is shown that through local/remote forcing of the drag in the mountainous regions, the 3D‐oro alleviates part of the excessive rainfall in west Tibetan Plateau and parts of insufficient rainfall in Southeast China by about 25%∼50% in the January/winter forecasts; it alleviates about 25%∼50% of the rainfall bias in part of south Tibetan Plateau and of East Asia in the July/summer forecasts. The results suggest the importance of improved orographic drag process and its impact in climate modeling for those regions that are prone to significant impact of hydroclimate events.

orographic anisotropy↗

Impact of boundary layer simulation on predicting radioactive pollutant dispersion: a case study for HANARO Research Reactor using the WRF-MMIF-CALPUFF modeling system

Wind plays an important role in cases of unexpected radioactive pollutant dispersion, deciding distribution and concentration of the leaked substance. The accurate prediction of wind has been challenging in numerical weather prediction models, especially near the surface because of the complex interaction between turbulent flow and topographic effect. As such, in this study, we investigated the characteristics of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material (i.e. 137 Cs) according to the simulated boundary layer around the HANARO research nuclear reactor in Korea using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Mesoscale Model Interface (MMIF)-California Puff (CALPUFF) model system. We examined the impacts of orographic drag on wind field, stability calculation methods, and planetary boundary layer parameterizations on the dispersion of radioactive material under a radioactive leaking scenario. We found that inclusion of the orographic drag effect in the WRF model improved the wind prediction most significantly over the complex terrain area, leading the model system to estimate the radioactive concentration near the reactor more conservatively. We also emphasized the importance of the stability calculation method and employing the skillful boundary layer parameterization to ensure more accurate low atmospheric conditions, in order to simulate more feasible spatial distribution of the radioactive dispersion in leaking scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of dislocation evolution in microparticle impacts over a wide range of impact velocities

We report the dynamic loading environment created by high velocity microparticle impacts is very difficult to model. The extremely high strain rates, large deformations, and high temperatures affect the flow stress of the material in ways that standard flow stress models cannot capture. Plastic deformation and strain hardening in metals is controlled by the motion of dislocations. Dislocations can be nucleated, stored as forest dislocations, or be annihilated as loading progresses. A comprehensive accounting of dislocation density change is needed to accurately describe rate and temperature dependent dislocation glide and evolution across the wide rage of loading conditions present in microparticle impact problems. Therefore, we implement and apply a newly proposed flow stress model (Hunter and Preston, 2015, 2022) that is then coupled with mobile and immobile dislocation density evolution equations. This model is implemented in Los Alamos National Laboratory’s hydrodynamics code, FLAG, to model copper-on-copper microparticle impacts. This new strength model allows for accurate simulation of particle rebound and flattening across a wide range of impact velocities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detection and Quantitation of Hydrogen Emissions Role and Status of Detection Technology

Hydrogen is a critical strategy to decarbonize energy and manufacturing industries. Hydrogen is nontoxic and can be handled safely, but potential for secondary greenhouse impacts. Hydrogen releases arise from a variety of mechanisms (process, design features, "leaks") that contribute to total hydrogen releases. Detection methodologies will be critical to detect and quantify hydrogen emissions. Detection is to be integrated with advanced analytics (AI) and behavior modelling to effectively identify, quantify, and source locate hydrogen releases. Modelling of emissions will contribute to facility safety and reliability. DOE is committed to develop the tools to model and mitigate the impact of hydrogen releases which include: Support modeling to elucidate released hydrogen degradation; Support the development of tools for emissions quantitation; and Support engineering advancements to minimize hydrogen losses along the value chain (including process, design features, and leaks).

detection↗

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗