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SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 21: The heritage of SeaWiFS. A retrospective on the CZCS NIMBUS Experiment Team (NET) program

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission is based on the scientific heritage of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), a proof-of-concept instrument carried on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) NIMBUS-7 environmental satellite for the purpose of measuring upwelling radiance from the ocean surface. The CZCS mission provided the first observations of ocean color from space, and over the mission lifetime of 1978-1986, allowed oceanographers an initial opportunity to observe the variable patterns of global biological productivity. One of the key elements of the CZCS mission was the formation of the CZCS NIMBUS Experiment Team (NET), a group of optical physicists and biological oceanographers. The CZCS NET was designated to validate the accuracy of the CZCS radiometric measurements and to connect the instrument's measurements to standard measures of oceanic biological productivity and optical seawater clarity. In the period following the cessation of CZCS observations, some of the insight and experience gained by the CZCS NET activity has dissipated as several proposed follow-on sensors failed to achieve active status. The Sea WiFS mission will be the first dedicated orbital successor to CZCS it in turn precedes observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) of the Earth Observing System (EOS). Since the CZCS NET experience is an important model for Sea WiFS and MODIS surface truth efforts, this document is intended to provide a comprehensive review of the validation of oceanographic data for the first orbital ocean color sensor mission. This document also summarizes the history of the CZCS NET activities. The references listed in the Bibliography are a listing of published scientific research which relied upon the CZCS BET algorithms, or research which was conducted on the basis of CZCS mission elements.

Acker, James G.↗

New insights into the natural history of bronchopulmonary dysplasia from proteomics and multiplexed immunohistochemistry

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a disease of prematurity related to the arrest of normal lung development. The objective of this study was to better understand how proteome modulation and cell-type shifts are noted in BPD pathology. Pediatric human donors aged 1–3 yr were classified based on history of prematurity and histopathology consistent with “healed” BPD (hBPD, n = 3) and “established” BPD (eBPD, n = 3) compared with respective full-term born (n = 6) age-matched term controls. Proteins were quantified by tandem mass spectroscopy with selected Western blot validations. Multiplexed immunofluorescence (MxIF) microscopy was performed on lung sections to enumerate cell types. Protein abundances and MxIF cell frequencies were compared among groups using ANOVA. Cell type and ontology enrichment were performed using an in-house tool and/or EnrichR. Proteomics detected 5,746 unique proteins, 186 upregulated and 534 downregulated, in eBPD versus control with fewer proteins differentially abundant in hBPD as compared with age-matched term controls. Cell-type enrichment suggested a loss of alveolar type I, alveolar type II, endothelial/capillary, and lymphatics, and an increase in smooth muscle and fibroblasts consistent with MxIF. Histochemistry and Western analysis also supported predictions of upregulated ferroptosis in eBPD versus control. Finally, several extracellular matrix components mapping to angiogenesis signaling pathways were altered in eBPD. Despite clear parsing by protein abundance, comparative MxIF analysis confirms phenotypic variability in BPD. This work provides the first demonstration of tandem mass spectrometry and multiplexed molecular analysis of human lung tissue for critical elucidation of BPD trajectory-defining factors into early childhood.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of fracture diagnostic methods for fluid distribution based on quantitative interpretation of distributed acoustic sensing and distributed temperature sensing

Multistage hydraulic fracturing design on horizontal wells has significantly evolved with larger fluid volume, more fracturing stages, and tighter perforation cluster spacing to efficiently stimulate unconventional reservoirs. From the published field observations, the recent fracturing design results in complex fracture networks or swarm of fractures. Fracture treatment evaluation is extremely challenging in such a case because of the large amount of variables in well completion and stimulation design. Combined measurements from different technologies can help in fracture diagnosis. Fluid distribution, either during fracture injection or during production, directly relates to the stimulation efficiency at the cluster level and at the stage level. Because it is unlikely in the real world to distribute the injected fluid uniformly among all the clusters, we need diagnostic techniques to generate the flow profile along a lateral. Fiber-optic measurements, such as distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and distributed temperature sensing (DTS), are currently used to diagnose downhole flow conditions. This technology allows us to qualitatively confirm the fluid flow profile and other issues occurring downhole during fracturing such as leakage through plugs. For optimizing a fracturing design, we also need to understand how the design parameters are correlated with the stimulation efficiency. In this study, we combine two sets of models of DAS and DTS data interpretation for injected fluid volume distribution. The DAS is interpreted based on an empirical correlation between fluid flow rates and frequency band energy from the acoustic signals. The DTS is interpreted by performing temperature history match-based thermal energy conservation. Because of the completely different physics behind the interpretations, the confirmation of two interpretations provides confidence in fluid distribution.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Onset of magma ocean solidification on Mars inferred from Mn-Cr chronometry

The mantle of Mars probably differentiated through the crystallization of a magma ocean during the first tens of million years (Ma) of Solar System evolution. However, the exact timescale of large-scale silicate differentiation of the martian mantle is debated, and in particular, it remains unclear when differentiation commenced. In this paper, we applied the short-lived 53 Mn- 53 Cr system to martian meteorites in order to date the onset of large-scale mantle differentiation on Mars. The new Cr isotope data demonstrate that martian meteorites exhibit no resolvable radiogenic 53 Cr variations, and instead have a uniform +20.2±1.2 (95% conf.) parts-per-million excess in 53 Cr/ 52 Cr relative to the terrestrial mantle. The investigated groups of martian meteorites are lithologically varied and derive from diverse mantle sources that probably had variable Mn/Cr. Hence, the lack of 53 Cr variability among martian meteorites demonstrates that silicate differentiation on Mars occurred after the extinction of 53 Mn. Provided that the sources of the martian meteorites have Mn/Cr variations that are typical of the terrestrial planets, this result implies that the onset of large-scale silicate differentiation must have occurred later than 20±5 Ma after Solar System formation. The onset of silicate differentiation on Mars inferred here is significantly later than time estimates for segregation of the martian core which conservatively occurred within <10 Ma after Solar System formation. Thus, the new Mn-Cr data imply that there was a small, but resolvable, time gap of at least 5 Ma between core formation and magma ocean solidification on Mars. If the age of core segregation is taken at face value, our results imply that the martian magma ocean remained mostly molten over several Ma. This inferred longevity of the magma ocean is inconsistent with thermal models predicting rapid (<1 Ma) solidification of the martian magma ocean. Although there is currently no unique solution to this conundrum, our results can potentially be explained by a protracted history of impact bombardment that delayed differentiation in a shallow magma ocean on Mars, or perhaps more readily, by the presence of an early and dense atmosphere that acted as an insulator and prevented the magma ocean from cooling quickly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interstellar and Solar System Organic Matter Preserved in Interplanetary Dust

Interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the Earth's stratosphere derive from collisions among asteroids and by the disruption and outgassing of short‐period comets. Chondritic porous (CP) IDPs are among the most primitive Solar System materials. CP‐IDPs have been linked to cometary parent bodies by their mineralogy, textures, C‐content, and dynamical histories. CP‐IDPs are fragile, fine‐grained (less than um) assemblages of anhydrous amorphous and crystalline silicates, oxides and sulfides bound together by abundant carbonaceous material. Ancient silicate, oxide, and SiC stardust grains exhibiting highly anomalous isotopic compositions are abundant in CP‐IDPs, constituting 0.01 - 1 % of the mass of the particles. The organic matter in CP‐IDPs is isotopically anomalous, with enrichments in D/H reaching 50x the terrestrial SMOW value and 15N/14N ratios up to 3x terrestrial standard compositions. These anomalies are indicative of low T (10‐100 K) mass fractionation in cold molecular cloud or the outermost reaches of the protosolar disk. The organic matter shows distinct morphologies, including sub‐um globules, bubbly textures, featureless, and with mineral inclusions. Infrared spectroscopy and mass spectrometry studies of organic matter in IDPs reveals diverse species including aliphatic and aromatic compounds. The organic matter with the highest isotopic anomalies appears to be richer in aliphatic compounds. These materials also bear similarities and differences with primitive, isotopically anomalous organic matter in carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. The diversity of the organic chemistry, morphology, and isotopic properties in IDPs and meteorites reflects variable preservation of interstellar/primordial components and Solar System processing. One unifying feature is the presence of sub‐um isotopically anomalous organic globules among all primitive materials, including IDPs, meteorites, and comet Wild‐2 samples returned by the Stardust mission.

Messenger, Scott↗

Mineralogy of Vera Rubin Ridge from the Mars Science Laboratory CheMin Instrument

Vera Rubin ridge (VRR) is an erosion-resistant feature on the northwestern slope of Mount Sharp in Gale crater, Mars, and orbital visible/short-wave infrared measurements indicate it contains red-colored hematite. The Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover performed an extensive campaign on VRR to study its mineralogy, geochemistry, and sedimentology to determine the depositional and diagenetic history of the ridge and constrain the processes by which the hematite could have formed. X-ray diffraction (XRD) data from the CheMin instrument of four samples drilled on and below VRR demonstrate differences in iron, phyllosilicate, and sulfate mineralogy and hematite grain size. Hematite is common across the ridge, and its detection in a gray-colored outcrop suggested localized regions with coarse-grained hematite, which commonly forms from warm fluids. Broad XRD peaks for hematite in one sample below VRR and the abundance of FeOT in the amorphous component suggest the presence of nano-crystalline hematite and amorphous Fe oxides/oxyhydroxides. Well-crystalline akaganeite and jarosite are present in two samples drilled from VRR, indicating at least limited alteration by acid-saline fluids. Collapsed nontronite is present below VRR, but samples from VRR contain phyllosilicate with d(001) = 9.6 Å, possibly from ferripyrophyllite or an acid-altered smectite. The most likely cementing agents creating the ridge are hematite and opaline silica. We hypothesize late diagenesis can explain much of the mineralogical variation on the ridge, where multiple fluid episodes with variable pH, salinity, and temperature altered the rocks, causing the precipitation and crystallization of phases that are not otherwise in equilibrium.

E. B. Rampe↗

Plume spectrometry for liquid rocket engine health monitoring

An investigation of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) testing failures identified optical events which appeared to be precursors of those failures. A program was therefore undertaken to detect plume trace phenomena characteristic of the engine and to design a monitoring system, responsive to excessive activity in the plume, capable of delivering a warning of an anomalous condition. By sensing the amount of extraneous material entrained in the plume and considering engine history, it may be possible to identify wearing of failing components in time for a safe shutdown and thus prevent a catastrophic event. To investigate the possibilities of safe shutdown and thus prevent a monitor to initiate the shutdown procedure, a large amount of plume data were taken from SSME firings using laboratory instrumentation. Those data were used to design a more specialized instrument dedicated to rocket plume diagnostics. The spectral wavelength range of the baseline data was about 220 nanometers (nm) to 15 micrometer with special attention given to visible and near UV. The data indicates that a satisfactory design will include a polychromator covering the range of 250 nM to 1000 nM, along with a continuous coverage spectrometer, each having a resolution of at least 5A degrees. The concurrent requirements for high resolution and broad coverage are normally at odds with one another in commercial instruments, therefore necessitating the development of special instrumentation. The design of a polychromator is reviewed herein, with a detailed discussion of the continuous coverage spectrometer delayed to a later forum. The program also requires the development of applications software providing detection, variable background discrimination, noise reduction, filtering, and decision making based on varying historical data.

Powers, William T.↗

The Evolution of Sulfide Tolerance in the Cyanobacteria

Understanding how the function of extant microorganisms has recorded both their evolutionary histories and their past interactions with the environment is a stated goal of astrobiology. We are taking a multidisciplinary approach to investigate the diversification of sulfide tolerance mechanisms in the cyanobacteria, which vary both in their degree of exposure to sulfide and in their capacity to tolerate this inhibitor of photosynthetic electron transport. Since conditions were very reducing during the first part of Earth's history and detrital sulfides have been found in Archean sediments, mechanisms conferring sulfide tolerance may have been important for the evolutionary success of the ancestors of extant cyanobacteria. Two tolerance mechanisms have been identified in this group: (1) resistance of photosystem II, the principal target of sulfide toxicity; and (2) maintenance of the ability to fix carbon despite photosystem II inhibition by utilizing sulfide as an electron donor in photosystem I - dependent, anoxygenic photosynthesis. We are presently collecting comparative data on aspects of sulfide physiology for laboratory clones isolated from a variety of habitats. These data will be analyzed within a phylogenetic framework inferred from molecular sequence data collected for these clones to test how frequently different mechanisms of tolerance have evolved and which tolerance mechanism evolved first. In addition, by analyzing these physiological data together with environmental sulfide data collected from our research sites using microelectrodes, we can also test whether the breadth of an organism's sulfide tolerance can be predicted from the magnitude of variation in environmental sulfide concentration it has experienced in its recent evolutionary past and whether greater average sulfide concentration and/or temporal variability in sulfide favors the evolution of a particular mechanism of sulfide tolerance.

Miller, Scott R.↗

Implications of increased spatial and trophic overlap between juvenile Pacific salmon and Sablefish in the northern California Current

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long-term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population.

Daly, Elizabeth A. (ORCID:0000000195334457)↗

Material Control & Accountancy for Molten Salt Reactors (FY2021 Report)

There is significant domestic and international interest, investment, and research and development momentum to pursue advanced nuclear reactor technologies. Molten salt reactor (MSR) concepts display the largest variability in fuel type and design features among the current advanced concepts. MSRs have been proposed with various core designs, sizes (power), and fuel cycles. Salt-fueled molten salt systems represent the only advanced reactor type with fuel that is not in a solid form during operation. These “liquid-fueled” MSRs are unique from perspectives of fuel fabrication, spent irradiated fuel and waste components, licensing, and material control and accountability (MC&A) including the potential of fissile material holdup. The liquid fuel salt is the defining distinction in comparison to other advanced reactors that propose TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel pebbles, various coolant options (e.g., molten salts or metals, high temperature gas), or small modular alternatives using solid fuel variants including both light water reactors and non-light water reactors. MSRs are appealing to the nuclear energy industry because of the diverse reactor characteristics they can support including various neutron energy spectra, fueling requirements, fuel cycles, and/or fuel utilization. However, because of the significant deviation and diversity of a salt-fueled system compared to traditional solid fuel light water-cooled reactors (LWRs), the history, regulatory licensing framework, modeling capabilities, and supporting engineering technology are either lacking or, in some cases, nonexistent. Therefore, the research community is actively supporting advanced MSR development on many of these fronts in particular to assist MSR vendors with licensing requirements. ORNL is leading the research and development of respective MC&A approaches for salt-fueled MSRs. This report summarizes the research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under the US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, Advanced Reactor Safeguards (ARS) program to investigate safeguards and security by design concepts, licensing and regulatory considerations, and dynamic system-level modeling to understand radioisotope concentrations for salt-fueled MSRs. The report builds upon the previous research and literature, identifies the MC&A challenges inherent to a salt-fueled MSR, reviews current regulatory frameworks for LWRs and their applicability towards salt-fueled MSRs, summarizes the status and progress of an MSR dynamic modeling tool, and discusses a prospective MC&A approach based on the Molten Salt Demonstration Reactor (MSDR) model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Understanding the Wind/Ejecta of ETA Carinae with the STIS

The mysterious Luminous Blue Variable, Eta Carinae, and its ejecta, the Homunculus, are yielding much new and exciting information to the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). With 0.05 in. pixels and R=5000, we have followed changes in the Central Source and the surrounding ejecta over the past 5.5 year period in the spectral region 1650-10300A. Neutral, partially-ionized and highly-excited nebular regions have been resolved. With 0.025 in., R=30000 and R=120000 between 1180 and 3160A, we are following the changes in the Central Source, the wind structure and at least 20 absorption components, thought to be within the wall of the Humunculus. The Central Source proves to be slightly extended at HST angular resolutions. Theoretical models of the nebular line fluxes are providing new insight to the sources of excitation. Photo-excitation, line and continuum pumping, plus shocks, all play a role. Laboratory measurements of Fe-like elements and improved atomic data bases prove necessary for proper interpretation. Increased angular resolution by larger-aperture space telescopes and improved optics and detectors will lead to new understanding of massive stars, their wind structures and history of ejecta.

Gull, Theodore R.↗

Atmospheric H 2 observations from the NOAA Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network

Abstract. The NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) measures atmospheric hydrogen (H2) in grab samples collected weekly as flask pairs at over 50 sites in the Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network. Measurements representative of background air sampling show higher H2 in recent years at all latitudes. The marine boundary layer (MBL) global mean H2 was 552.8 ppb in 2021, 20.2 ± 0.2 ppb higher compared to 2010. A 10 ppb or more increase over the 2010–2021 average annual cycle was detected in 2016 for MBL zonal means in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. Carbon monoxide measurements in the same-air samples suggest large biomass burning events in different regions likely contributed to the observed interannual variability at different latitudes. The NOAA H2 measurements from 2009 to 2021 are now based on the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO GAW) H2 mole fraction calibration scale, developed and maintained by the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Jena, Germany. GML maintains eight H2 primary calibration standards to propagate the WMO scale. These are gravimetric hydrogen-in-air mixtures in electropolished stainless steel cylinders (Essex Industries, St. Louis, MO), which are stable for H2. These mixtures were calibrated at the MPI-BGC, the WMO Central Calibration Laboratory (CCL) for H2, in late 2020 and span the range 250–700 ppb. We have used the CCL assignments to propagate the WMO H2 calibration scale to NOAA air measurements performed using gas chromatography and helium pulse discharge detector instruments since 2009. To propagate the scale, NOAA uses a hierarchy of secondary and tertiary standards, which consist of high-pressure whole-air mixtures in aluminum cylinders, calibrated against the primary and secondary standards, respectively. Hydrogen at the parts per billion level has a tendency to increase in aluminum cylinders over time. We fit the calibration histories of these standards with zero-, first-, or second-order polynomial functions of time and use the time-dependent mole fraction assignments on the WMO scale to reprocess all tank air and flask air H2 measurement records. The robustness of the scale propagation over multiple years is evaluated with the regular analysis of target air cylinders and with long-term same-air measurement comparison efforts with WMO GAW partner laboratories. Long-term calibrated, globally distributed, and freely accessible measurements of H2 and other gases and isotopes continue to be essential to track and interpret regional and global changes in the atmosphere composition. The adoption of the WMO H2 calibration scale and subsequent reprocessing of NOAA atmospheric data constitute a significant improvement in the NOAA H2 measurement records.

Pétron, Gabrielle↗

Component level modeling of materials degradation for insights into operational flexibility of Existing Coal Power Plants

Increasingly, coal-fired power plants are required to balance power grids by compensating for the variable electricity supply from renewable energy sources. Fossil-fueled power plants, originally designed to be base loaded, will increasingly need to operate on a load following or cyclic basis. This demanding requirement for operational flexibility needs insights into accelerated material degradation arising due to the harsh operating conditions (e.g., fatigue, early oxide exfoliation due to stresses) along with current damage mechanisms (fireside corrosion, creep and erosion) observed in service. Our research objective is to develop component level modeling toolkit for materials-based degradation for two key mechanisms that can accelerate with cyclic operations. In more detail, this includes the fireside corrosion/steam oxidation/erosion/creep/fatigue of superheaters/reheaters and steam pipework and also the water droplet erosion/ fatigue of last stage steam turbine blades degradation mechanisms, that demand routine and sometimes unplanned maintenance and repair. The innovation is in developing a computational fluid dynamics/finite element (CFD/FE) modeling toolkit for the component level models of the boilers and low-pressure steam turbines in coal power plants that can tackle multidisciplinary failure mechanisms occurring concurrently for extreme environment materials. Lifetime assessment in such environments also needs to account for the unit-specific analyses, operational history and fuel feedstock; this can only be obtained by destructive analysis of components. This, in turn, enables validation of the model toolkits utilizing service feedback data, improving the probability of time/temperature dependent life prediction.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

From an ecological perspective, the search for life on distant planets begins from several key assumptions. The first of these is that, viewed from a remote location in space, the signature of life on a distant planet will be the result of net gas exchange of organisms with their environment. On the basis of extensive biogeochemical measurements and biogenic trace gas fluxes in modem Earth environments, it is probable that certain groups of organisms both produce and consume the same trace gas(es) within a single bioprofile of Solid (porous) substrate or surface water. The net gas exchange rate with the atmosphere measured at the living surface is frequently the result of competing metabolic reactions, which may carried out by different functional groups of organisms located at dissimilar 'climatic' or chemical microsites within the same bioprofile. Biogenic gases produced at one (deep) level of a bioprofile may be consumed by another functional group of organisms located closer to the level of surface exchange with the atmosphere. A second key assumption is that the net biogenic fluxes of atmospheric gases on Earth can be used to infer relative abundance and functional composition of the major organisms on a distant planet. Examples of this principle include the presence of methanogenic microorganisms abundant today in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, which are major source of atmospheric methane and its seasonal variability in Earth's atmosphere. A third assumption is that scaling up biogenic gas fluxes from a single biological community to the planetary level requires flux measurements at the whole ecosystem level. This implies that measurements of biogenic gas exchange with the global atmosphere cannot be easily inferred from measurements of gas production rates of single organisms, which may have been isolated in some manner from the setting of their native ecosystem. Hence, the unit of biological organization used in modern Earth Science for scaling up to biosphere effects on atmospheric composition is the ecosystem level. These assumptions are the foundation for developing modern emission budgets for biogenic gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, isoprene, nitrous and nitric oxide, and ammonia. Such emission budgets commonly include information on seasonal flux patterns, typical diurnal profiles, and spatial resolution of at least one degree latitude/longitude for the globe. On the basis of these budgets, it is possible to compute 'base emission rates' for the major biogenic trace gases from both terrestrial and ocean sources, which may be useful benchmarks for defining the gas production rates of organisms, especially those from early Earth history, which are required to generate a detectable signal on a global atmosphere. This type of analysis is also the starting point for evaluation of the 'biological processes to global gas budget' extrapolation procedure described above for early Earth ecosystems.

Christopher, Potter S.↗

Mode Transitions in Glass Cockpit Aircraft: Results of a Field Study

One consequence of increased levels of automation in complex control systems is the presence of modes. A mode is a particular configuration of a control system that defines how human command inputs are interpreted. In complex systems, modes also often determine a specific allocation of control authority between the human and automated systems. Even in simple static devices (e.g., electronic watches, word processors), the presence of modes has been found to cause problems in either-the acquisition or production of skilled performance. Many of these problems arise due to the fact that the selection of a mode causes device behavior to be mediated by hidden internal state information. For these simple systems, many of these interaction problems can be solved by the design of appropriate feedback to communicate internal state information to the human operator. In complex dynamic systems, however, the design issues associated with modes seem to trancend the problem of merely communicating internal state information via displayed feedback. In complex supervisory control systems (e.g., aircraft, spacecraft, military command and control), a key function of modes is the selection of a particular configuration of control authority between the human operator and automated control systems. One mode may result in full manual control, another may result in a mix of manual and automatic control, while a third may result in full automatic control over the entire system. The human operator selects an appropriate mode as a function of current goals, operating conditions, and operating procedures. Thus, the operator is put in a position of essentially trying to control two coupled dynamic systems: the target system itself, and also a highly complex suite of automation controlling the target system. From a historical perspective, it should probably not come as a surprise that very little information is available to guide the design of mode-oriented control systems. The topic of function allocation (i.e., the proper division of control authority among human and computer) has a long history in human-machine systems research. Although this research has produced some relevant guidelines, a design approach capable of defining appropriate allocations of control function between the human and automation is not yet available. As a result, the function allocation decision itself has been allocated to the operator, to be performed in real-time, in the operation of mode-oriented control systems. A variety of documented aircraft accidents and incidents suggest that the real-time selection and monitoring of control modes is a weak link in the effective operation of complex supervisory control systems. Research in human-machine systems and human-computer interaction has barely scraped the surface of the problem of understanding how operators manage this task.The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a field study which examined how operators manage mode selection in a complex supervisory control system. Data on mode engagements using the Boeing B757/767 auto-flight system were collected during approach and descent into four major airports in the East Coast of the United States. Protocols documenting mode selection, automatic mode changes, pilot actions, quantitative records of flight-path variables, and verbal reports during and after mode engagements were collected by an observer from the jumpseat. Observations were conducted on two typical trips between three airports. Each trip was be replicated 11 times, which yielded a total of 22 trips and 66 legs on which data were collected. All data collected concerned the same flight numbers, and therefore, the same time of day, same type of aircraft, and identical operational environments (e.g., ATC facilities, weather patterns, traffic flow etc.)

Degani, Asaf↗

Risk of Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength &, Endurance (Short Title: Muscle) and Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity (Short Title: Aerobic)

This report reviews the scientific literature regarding the human system risks to the microgravity environment of space flight in relation to human performance. The primary human performance-related risks involve deconditioning of the cardiovascular and skeletal muscles systems due to prolonged exposure to the reduced gravitational input. The chronological history of U.S. space flight is reviewed as a starting point to inform and understand the gaps in the knowledge to these risks. Maintenance of physical performance capabilities involves understanding the health of many organ systems (peripheral [vascular, heart, blood volume, skeletal muscle] and central [brain]) that ultimately contribute to the submaximal and maximal capacity of the aerobic (VO2peak), skeletal muscle (strength and endurance) systems. Maintaining astronaut VO2peak, muscle mass, strength, and endurance before, during, and after space flight is a significant priority to NASA for the current International Space Station (ISS) era, as well as for future exploration missions. A growing research database from both space flight and ground-based analog studies finds that the cardiorespiratory system is compromised and skeletal muscles (predominantly postural muscles of the lower limbs) undergo atrophy. These structural and metabolic responses to living in microgravity conditions contribute to physiological deconditioning during space flight that potentially increase the risks to astronauts returning to surface operations (i.e., Moon, Mars, or Earth). The time course changes from short to long-duration space flight and the relationships between in-flight performance deconditioning levels are not well characterized. Moreover, there are large interindividual variabilities that may be dependent on genetics, age, sex, preflight fitness levels, and individual exercise prescriptions that need further careful evaluations. Efforts should be made to understand the current status of preflight, in-flight, and postflight exercise performance capability and to define the operational goals and target areas for protection with the in-flight exercise program. There is a bi-directional relationship between exercise prescription and hardware countermeasures that need further understanding in-flight. For example, hardware with limited capabilities/modalities may be counterbalanced by changes in exercise prescription (i.e., frequency, time, intensity, volume) for providing effective responses to maintain fitness. Importantly, the minimal requirements for exercise prescription on ISS hardware may not translate to lower capability hardware on exploration missions. Due to limited volume on exploration vehicles, future Artemis missions to the Lunar surface will not have similar exercise hardware capabilities as ISS. This may alter the effectiveness of hardware to provide adequate physiological stress on bodily systems allowing for adaptations to maintain aerobic capacity, strength, and bone density. Thus, it will be important to understand the exercise responses of current ISS countermeasures to develop individualized exercise prescriptions that minimize aerobic and muscular risks, accounting for the large variability of responses among crewmembers. Newer exploration exercise hardware is currently being evaluated that is more compact (i.e., E4D and Orion Flywheel) and will require careful evaluation of the hardware on the stressor (i.e., metabolic rate, oxygen uptake, and heart rate work relationships, and force plate load profiles) needed the human body to protect and maintain crew health and performance. Moreover, exercise responses on the hardware need careful evaluation on the chronic adaptations. Lastly, in-flight evaluation of hardware exercise response may differ in 0-g or partial-g compared to 1-g. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that the stress on the body will be the same in each environment. Understanding this has a direct impact on exercise prescriptions. This document provides an overview of key scientific investigations that have been conducted before, during, and after human space flight missions, as well as from human ground-based analog studies that contribute to the evidence base on changes in aerobic capacity and muscle mass, strength, and endurance. Additional data from rodent and nonhuman primate experiments of skeletal muscle unloading completed during space flight or ground-based flight-simulations provide supportive information about this risk topic. Most importantly, a recent, large dataset from long-duration ISS crew has been added to give improved insight into the variability of exercise response of crew, demonstrating that a large portion of the crew population return to Earth with greater than 10-20% loss of aerobic capacity and muscle strength and endurance. Data from human space flight and ground-based studies are narrowing in on the required exercise paradigms but thus far still provide an incomplete answer to an effective approach for maintaining skeletal muscle function and aerobic fitness of all human space travelers. Finally, the relationship of this risk topic to various space flight operational scenarios is examined and discussed.

Eric Rivas↗

Annihilation-to-nothing: a quantum gravitational boundary condition for the Schwarzschild black hole

The interior of a static Schwarzschild metric can be written in terms of two functions, similar to some models of anisotropic cosmology. With a suitable choice of canonical variables, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation (WDW) inside the horizon of a Schwarzschild black hole. By imposing classicality near the horizon, and requiring boundedness of the wave function, we get a rather generic solution of the WDW equation, whose steepest-descent solution, i.e., the ridge of the wave function, coincides nicely with the classical trajectory. However, there is an ambiguity in defining the arrow of time which leads to two possible interpretations—(i) if there is only one arrow of time, one can infer that the steepest-descent of the wave function follows the classical trajectory throughout: coming from the event horizon and going all the way down to the singularity, while (ii) if there are two different arrows of time in two separate regimes, it can be inferred that the steepest-descent of the wave function comes inwards from the event horizon in one region while it moves outwards from the singularity in the other region, and there exists an annihilation process of these two parts of the wave function inside the horizon. Additionally, adopting the second interpretation could shed light on the information loss paradox: as time goes on, probabilities for histories that include black holes and singularities decay to zero and eventually only trivial geometries dominate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗