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At least 775 records · Page 43

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NASA NTRS2016

Comparative Analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO Tools for the Forecast of the Fluxes of High-Energy Electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Balikhin, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Materials Degradation in the Jovian Radiation Environment

The radiation environment of Jupiter represents a significant hazard for Europa Lander deorbit stage components, and presents a significant potential mission risk. The radiolytic degradation of ammonium perchlorate (AP) oxidizer in solid propellants may affect its properties and performance. The Monte Carlo code MONSOL was used for modeling of laboratory experiments on the electron irradiation of propellant samples. An approach for flattening dose profiles along the depth of irradiated samples is proposed. Depth-dose distributions produced by Jovian electrons in multi-layer slabs of materials are calculated. It is found that the absorbed dose in a particular slab is significantly affected by backscattered electrons and photons from neighboring slabs. The dose and radiolytic decomposition of AP crystals are investigated and radiation-induced chemical yields and weight percent of radical products are reported.

Miloshevsky, Gennady↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for LOX/LNG explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified LOX/LNG explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗

NASA NTRS2024

Influence of Ductility on the Performance of Lunar Habitat Structures Under Recurrent Disturbances

This research examines how ductility affects the durability of lunar surface structures against recurring disturbances like moonquakes, micrometeorite impacts, and thermal cycles over an extended period. The structural performance at various levels of ductility was determined by adjusting material parameters and the thickness of a reference multilayered dome structure. Moonquake and micrometeorite impact-induced lateral displacements were estimated using a reduced-order model under a control-oriented dynamic computational modeling framework. The study considered the degradation of the metallic dome’s strength properties over time due to thermal cycles. Fragility curves were generated by assessing the likelihood of reaching three predefined damage levels as a result of multiple hazards. Additionally, a discounted cash flow analysis was conducted to incorporate a financial aspect into the performance comparison. The findings revealed that structures with sufficient ductility capacity have a lower probability of sustaining severe damage or collapsing within a shorter time frame. Hence, having ductile structures in lunar environments is advantageous as it allows the postponement of maintenance and repair actions, thereby conserving scarce resources for more urgent tasks. Moreover, the financial analysis demonstrated that lunar habitats with higher ductile capacities result in larger net present values, offering a higher return on the initial investment.

Arsalan Majlesi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The GeoGLOWS Project: Essential Water Variables and Observations – Expected Value Chain, Products, Examples

Essential Water Variables (EWV) were developed over the last decade to ensure that key datasets were made available for closing the global water budget, and addressing the many international actions that require water data. Satellite, surface, and numerical model data all have a role in providing EWVs, and it is a key point that these data must be merged and then fed into decision support applications to answer all the needs of the panoply of user communities. The more specialized the applications become, the higher the demand for development and maintenance resources. Some examples of applications include the NASA Goddard Giovanni, which provides on-line data access and simple analysis; the Global Flood Monitor, which focuses on precipitation-driven flooding; the NASA Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness, which similarly treats landslides; and the Global Streamflow Forecasting Project, which provides multiple decision support interfaces, as well as a general toolkit for building new interfaces.

Essential Water Variables↗

NASA NTRS2020

SMARt-STEReO: Preliminary Model Description

Wildfires have increasingly become major threat to US towns and cities, with California alone having its most destructive wildfire seasons to date in 2017 and 2018 and 2020 already becoming one of the worst fire years on record, causing the large-scale evacuations, the destruction of towns and property, and a significant release of hazardous smoke over the entire west coast. Thus, the U.S. Forest Service recently spent over 50% of its budget on wildfire management – funds which could otherwise be directed to science that could support fire prevention. Aerial support plays a major role in fighting wildfires. Airtankers, helicopters, and other aerial assets support the construction of fire-lines, gather data, and transport crews and equipment. However, presently, aerial firefighting operations rely on relatively unsophisticated technologies for communications, such as over-the-air radios, which limit the ability of pilots and management to relay fire data and coordinate operations. Aerial operations in and around fires are additionally high-risk activities due to the variable, dangerous conditions and complex, technically difficult maneuvers which must be performed to, for example, conduct a retardant drop. Thus, between 2000 and 2013, of the 298 wildland firefighter fatalities, 26% were related to aerial operations. As a result, there is significant potential to both improve the performance and resiliency of wildfire response while reducing risk to human operators.

Daniel E Hulse↗

NASA NTRS1997

Lightning as an Aircraft Hazard: (Latest citations from the Aerospace Database)

The bibliography contains citations concerning lightning strikes as an aircraft hazard. Aircraft designs to prevent or withstand lightning strikes, statistics on lightning strikes of aircraft, detection of strikes, remote monitoring and detection of lightning, initiation of lightning strikes by aircraft, effects of lightning strikes on aircraft structural and electronic components, modeling, and simulation of lightning strikes on aircraft are discussed. Remote detection of storms with regard to aircraft safety are discussed in another bibliography. (Contains 50-250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

LIGHTNING↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA Taxonomies for Searching Problem Reports and FMEAs

Many types of hazard and risk analyses are used during the life cycle of complex systems, including Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Reliability Analysis and analysis of Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) databases. The success of these methods depends on the availability of input data and the analysts knowledge. Standard nomenclature can increase the reusability of hazard, risk and problem data. When nomenclature in the source texts is not standard, taxonomies with mapping words (sets of rough synonyms) can be combined with semantic search to identify items and tag them with metadata based on a rich standard nomenclature. Semantic search uses word meanings in the context of parsed phrases to find matches. The NASA taxonomies provide the word meanings. Spacecraft taxonomies and ontologies (generalization hierarchies with attributes and relationships, based on terms meanings) are being developed for types of subsystems, functions, entities, hazards and failures. The ontologies are broad and general, covering hardware, software and human systems. Semantic search of Space Station texts was used to validate and extend the taxonomies. The taxonomies have also been used to extract system connectivity (interaction) models and functions from requirements text. Now the Reconciler semantic search tool and the taxonomies are being applied to improve search in the Space Shuttle PRACA database, to discover recurring patterns of failure. Usual methods of string search and keyword search fall short because the entries are terse and have numerous shortcuts (irregular abbreviations, nonstandard acronyms, cryptic codes) and modifier words cannot be used in sentence context to refine the search. The limited and fixed FMEA categories associated with the entries do not make the fine distinctions needed in the search. The approach assigns PRACA report titles to problem classes in the taxonomy. Each ontology class includes mapping words - near-synonyms naming different manifestations of that problem class. The mapping words for Problems, Entities and Functions are converted to a canonical form plus any of a small set of modifier words (e.g. non-uniformity NOT + UNIFORM.) The report titles are parsed as sentences if possible, or treated as a flat sequence of word tokens if parsing fails. When canonical forms in the title match mapping words, the PRACA entry is associated with the corresponding Problem, Entity or Function in the ontology. The user can search for types of failures associated with types of equipment, clustering by type of problem (e.g., all bearings found with problems of being uneven: rough, irregular, gritty ). The results could also be used for tagging PRACA report entries with rich metadata. This approach could also be applied to searching and tagging failure modes, failure effects and mitigations in FMEAs. In the pilot work, parsing 52K+ truncated titles (the test cases that were available), has resulted in identification of both a type of equipment and type of problem in about 75% of the cases. The results are displayed in a manner analogous to Google search results. The effort has also led to the enrichment of the taxonomy, adding some new categories and many new mapping words. Further work would make enhancements that have been identified for improving the clustering and further reducing the false alarm rate. (In searching for recurring problems, good clustering is more important than reducing false alarms). Searching complete PRACA reports should lead to immediate improvement.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analysis and Design of Phase Change Thermal Control for Light Emitting Diode (LED) Spacesuit Helmet Lights

LED Helmet Extravehicular Activity Helmet Interchangeable Portable (LEHIP) lights for the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) have been built and tested and are currently being used on the International Space Station. A design is presented of the passive thermal control system consisting of a chamber filled with aluminum foam and wax. A thermal math model of LEHIP was built and correlated by test to show that the thermal design maintains electronic components within hot and cold limits for a 7 hour spacewalk in the most extreme EVA average environments, and do not pose a hazard to the crew or to components of the EMU.

Bue, Grant C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA Disasters Program: A Partner for Coastal Disaster Response, Resiliency, and Risk Reduction

Summary: The NASA Applied Sciences: Disasters Program has kicked off a pilot project as “Mid-Atlantic Resiliency Demonstration Study, Communities at Intensive Risk” in FY17 and FY18; Efforts focus on a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to integrate a full suite of capabilities from numerical weather prediction, tide and surge modeling at high spatial resolution and urban/neighborhood scales, and remote sensing capabilities for water detection and depth estimation; Future efforts - Partner with Federal Agencies, academia professional societies to complement and augment ongoing work using Earth observations unique to NASA - Translate hazards to risk in order to understand local and regional impacts and minimize vulnerability.

Bell, Jordan↗

NASA NTRS1983

Wildland inventory and resource modeling for Douglas and Carson City Counties, Nevada, using LANDSAT and digital terrain data

The potential of using LANDSAT satellite imagery to map and inventory pinyon-juniper desert forest types in Douglas and Carson City Counties, Nevada was demonstrated. Specific map and statistical products produced include land cover, mechanical operations capability, big game winter range habitat, fire hazard, and forest harvestability. The Nevada Division of Forestry determined that LANDSAT can produce a reliable and low-cost resource data. Added benefits become apparent when the data are linked to a geographical information system (GIS) containing existing ownership, planning, elevation, slope, and aspect information.

Brass, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Monitoring Extreme Weather in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region

Why is monitoring extreme weather events important? The HKH (Hindu Kush Himalaya region experiences many extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms, especially during monsoon season. These events can cause economic hardship and loss of life. Monitoring Extreme Weather in the HKH Region is a service in development through SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya that aims to develop a customized numerical weather prediction toolkit to assess these high impact events in this relatively data-sparse region. The High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) consists of an ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model, threat assessments based on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) missions, and impact assessments based on Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. In spring 2019, we began validation of forecasted precipitation using station data in Bangladesh and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed with Station data (CHIRPS).

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in the Lower Mekong River Basin (Southeast Asia)

Satellite-based precipitation is an essential tool for regional water resource applications that requires frequent observations of meteorological forcing, particularly in areas that have sparse rain gauge networks. To fully realize the utility of remotely sensed precipitation products in watershed modeling and decision-making, a thorough evaluation of the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall and regional gauge network estimates is needed. In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 v.7 and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) daily rainfall estimates were compared with daily rain gauge observations from 2000 to 2014 in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Southeast Asia. Monthly, seasonal, and annual comparisons were performed, which included the calculations of correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Our validation test showed TMPA to correctly detect precipitation or no-precipitation 64.9% of all days and CHIRPS 66.8% of all days, compared to daily in-situ rainfall measurements. The accuracy of the satellite-based products varied greatly between the wet and dry seasons. Both TMPA and CHIRPS showed higher correlation with in-situ data during the wet season (June–September) as compared to the dry season (November–January). Additionally, both performed better on a monthly than an annual time-scale when compared to in-situ data. The satellite-based products showed wet biases during months that received higher cumulative precipitation. Based on a spatial correlation analysis, the average r-value of CHIRPS was much higher than TMPA across the basin. CHIRPS correlated better than TMPA at lower elevations and for monthly rainfall accumulation less than 500 mm. While both satellite-based products performed well, as compared to rain gauge measurements, the present research shows that CHIRPS might be better at representing precipitation over the LMRB than TMPA.

Dandridge, Chelsea↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

safety expertise↗

NASA NTRS1984

The investigation of tethered satellite system dynamics

Tethered satellite system (TSS) dynamics were studied. The dynamic response of the TSS during the entire stationkeeping phase for the first electrodynamic mission was investigated. An out of plane swing amplitude and the tether's bowing were observed. The dynamics of the slack tether was studied and computer code, SLACK2, was improved both in capabilities and computational speed. Speed hazard related to tether breakage or plasma contactor failure was examined. Preliminary values of the potential difference after the failure and of the drop of the electric field along the tether axis have been computed. The update of the satellite rotational dynamics model is initiated.

Lorenzini, E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Enabler operator station

The objective of this project was to design an onboard operator station for the conceptual Lunar Work Vehicle (LWV). The LWV would be used in the colonization of a lunar outpost. The details that follow, however, are for an Earth-bound model. The operator station is designed to be dimensionally correct for an astronaut wearing the current space shuttle EVA suit (which include life support). The proposed operator station will support and restrain an astronaut as well as to provide protection from the hazards of vehicle rollover. The threat of suit puncture is eliminated by rounding all corners and edges. A step-plate, located at the front of the vehicle, provides excellent ease of entry and exit. The operator station weight requirements are met by making efficient use of rigid members, semi-rigid members, and woven fabrics.

Bailey, Andrea↗