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At least 775 records · Page 43

Machine learning in materials research: Developments over the last decade and challenges for the future

The number of studies that apply machine learning (ML) to materials science has been growing at a rate of approximately 1.67 times per year over the past decade. In this review, I examine this growth in various contexts. First, I present an analysis of the most commonly used tools (software, databases, materials science methods, and ML methods) used within papers that apply ML to materials science. The analysis demonstrates that despite the growth of deep learning techniques, the use of classical machine learning is still dominant as a whole. It also demonstrates how new research can effectively build upon past research, particular in the domain of ML models trained on density functional theory calculation data. Next, I present the progression of best scores as a function of time on the matbench materials science benchmark for formation enthalpy prediction. In particular, a dramatic improvement of 7 times reduction in error is obtained when progressing from feature-based methods that use conventional ML (random forest, support vector regression, etc.) to the use of graph neural network techniques. Finally, I provide views on future challenges and opportunities, focusing on data size and complexity, extrapolation, interpretation, access, and relevance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Long-Term Impact of Endometrial Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment on Health-Related Quality of Life and Cancer Survivorship: Results From the Randomized PORTEC-2 Trial

Purpose: To evaluate the long-term health-related quality of life (HRQL) after external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) or vaginal brachytherapy (VBT) among PORTEC-2 trial patients, evaluate long-term bowel and bladder symptoms, and assess the impact of cancer on these endometrial cancer (EC) survivors. Patients and Methods: In the PORTEC-2 trial, 427 patients with stage I high–intermediate-risk EC were randomly allocated to EBRT or VBT. The 7- and 10-year HRQL questionnaires consisted of EORTC QLQ-C30; subscales for bowel and bladder symptoms; the Impact of Cancer Questionnaire; and 14 questions on comorbidities, walking aids, and incontinence pads. Analysis was done using linear mixed models for subscales and (ordinal) logistic regression with random effects for single items. A two-sided P value <.01 was considered statistically significant. Results: Longitudinal HRQL analysis showed persisting higher rates of bowel symptoms with EBRT, without significant differences in global health or any of the functioning scales. At 7 years, clinically relevant fecal leakage was reported by 10.6% in the EBRT group, versus 1.8% for VBT (P=.03), diarrhea by 8.4% versus 0.9% (P=.04), limitations due to bowel symptoms by 10.5% versus 1.8% (P=.001), and bowel urgency by 23.3% versus 6.6% (P<.001). Urinary urgency was reported by 39.3% of EBRT patients, 25.5% for VBT, P=.05. No difference in sexual activity was seen between treatment arms. Long-term impact of cancer scores was higher among the patients who had an EC recurrence or second cancer. Conclusions: More than 7 years after treatment, EBRT patients reported more bowel symptoms with impact on daily activities, and a trend for more urinary symptoms, without impact on overall quality of life or difference in cancer survivorship issues.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Relationship Between Radiation Dose and Markers of Insulin Resistance and Inflammation in Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Context In recent studies of childhood cancer survivors, diabetes has been considered a late effect associated with high therapeutic doses of radiation therapy. Our recent study of atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors also suggested an association between radiation dose and diabetes incidence, with exposure city and age at exposure as radiation dose effect modifiers. Insulin resistance mediated by systemic inflammation and abnormal body composition has been suggested as a possible primary mechanism for the incidence of diabetes after total body irradiation; however, no studies have examined low to moderate radiation exposure (<4 Gy) and insulin resistance in A-bomb survivors. Objective To examine the association between radiation dose and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Methods This study investigated 3152 survivors who underwent a health examination between 2008 and 2012 and who were younger than 15 years at exposure. Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the radiation effects on levels of markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Results Radiation dose was significantly and positively associated with levels of C-reactive protein, triglycerides, homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β), and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) after adjustment for relevant covariates including sex, city, and age at exposure. Adiponectin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were also associated significantly and negatively with radiation dose. However, city was not a dose modifier of the radiation response on these markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Conclusion Insulin resistance might be a possible factor in radiation-related diabetes incidence in A-bomb survivors.

Endocrinology & Metabolism↗

Intelligent control and adaptive systems; Proceedings of the Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, Nov. 7, 8, 1989

Various papers on intelligent control and adaptive systems are presented. Individual topics addressed include: control architecture for a Mars walking vehicle, representation for error detection and recovery in robot task plans, real-time operating system for robots, execution monitoring of a mobile robot system, statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning, global kinematics for manipulator planning and control, exploration of unknown mechanical assemblies through manipulation, low-level representations for robot vision, harmonic functions for robot path construction, simulation of dual behavior of an autonomous system. Also discussed are: control framework for hand-arm coordination, neural network approach to multivehicle navigation, electronic neural networks for global optimization, neural network for L1 norm linear regression, planning for assembly with robot hands, neural networks in dynamical systems, control design with iterative learning, improved fuzzy process control of spacecraft autonomous rendezvous using a genetic algorithm.

Rodriguez, Guillermo↗

Training Enhances Both Locomotor and Cognitive Adaptability to a Novel Sensory Environment

During adaptation to novel gravitational environments, sensorimotor disturbances have the potential to disrupt the ability of astronauts to perform required mission tasks. The goal of this project is to develop a sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training program to facilitate rapid adaptation. We have developed a unique training system comprised of a treadmill placed on a motion-base facing a virtual visual scene that provides an unstable walking surface combined with incongruent visual flow designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. The goal of our present study was to determine if SA training improved both the locomotor and cognitive responses to a novel sensory environment and to quantify the extent to which training would be retained. Methods: Twenty subjects (10 training, 10 control) completed three, 30-minute training sessions during which they walked on the treadmill while receiving discordant support surface and visual input. Control subjects walked on the treadmill but did not receive any support surface or visual alterations. To determine the efficacy of training all subjects performed the Transfer Test upon completion of training. For this test, subjects were exposed to novel visual flow and support surface movement, not previously experienced during training. The Transfer Test was performed 20 minutes, 1 week, 1, 3 and 6 months after the final training session. Stride frequency, auditory reaction time, and heart rate data were collected as measures of postural stability, cognitive effort and anxiety, respectively. Results: Using mixed effects regression methods we determined that subjects who received SA training showed less alterations in stride frequency, auditory reaction time and heart rate compared to controls. Conclusion: Subjects who received SA training improved performance across a number of modalities including enhanced locomotor function, increased multi-tasking capability and reduced anxiety during adaptation to novel discordant sensory information. Trained subjects maintained their level of performance over six months.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

Urban Air Quality Management at Low-Cost Using Micro Air Sensors: A Case Study From Accra, Ghana

Urban air quality management is dependent on the availability of local air pollution data. In many major urban centers of Africa, there is limited to non-existent information on air quality. This is gradually changing in part due to the increasing use of micro air sensors which have the potential to enable the generation of ground-based air quality data at fine scales for understanding local emission trends. Regional literature on the application of the high-resolution data for emission source identification in this region is limited. In this study a micro air sensor was co-located at the Physics Department, University of Ghana with a reference grade instrument to evaluate its performance for estimating PM2.5 pollution accurately at fine scales and the value of this data in identification of local sources and their behavior over time. For this study 15 weeks of data at hourly resolution with approximately 2500 data pairs are generated and analyzed (June 01, 2023, to September 15, 2023). For this time period a coefficient of determination (r 2 ) of 0.83 was generated with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.44 μgm -3 between the pre local calibration micro air sensor (i.e. out of box) and the reference-grade instrument. Following currently accepted best practice methods (see e.g., PAS4023) a domain specific (i.e. local) calibration factor was generated using a multi-linear regression model and when this factor is applied to the micro air sensor data, a reduction i.e., improvement in MAE to 1.43 μgm -3 was found. Daily variation was calculated, a receptor model was applied, and time series plots as a function of wind direction were generated, including PM2.5/PM10 ratio scatter and count plots to explore the utility of this observational approach for local source identification. The 3 data sets were compared (out of box, domain calibrated and reference-grade) and it was found that although there were variations in the data reported, source areas highlighted based on these data were similar, with input from local sources such as traffic emissions and biomass burning. As the temporal resolution of observational data associated with these micro air sensors is higher than for reference grade instruments (primarily due to costs and logistics limitations), they have the potential to provide insight into the complex, often hyper localized sources associated with urban areas, such as those found in major African cities.

Source apportionment↗

Lack of a Dose-Effect Relationship for Pulmonary Function Changes After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of tumor size, prescription dose, and dose to the lungs on posttreatment pulmonary function test (PFT) changes after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: The analysis is based on 191 patients treated at 5 international institutions: inclusion criteria were availability of pre- and post-SBRT PFTs and dose-volume histograms of the lung and planning target volume (PTV); patients treated with more than 1 SBRT course were excluded. Correlation between early (1-6 months, median 3 months) and late (7-24 months, median 12 months) PFT changes and tumor size, planning target volume (PTV) dose, and lung doses was assessed using linear regression analysis, receiver operating characteristics analysis, and Lyman's normal tissue complication probability model. The PTV doses were converted to biologically effective doses and lung doses to 2 Gy equivalent doses before correlation analyses. Results: Up to 6 months after SBRT, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and carbon monoxide diffusion capacity changed by −1.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], −3.4% to 0) and −7.6% (95% CI, −10.2% to −3.4%) compared with pretreatment values, respectively. A modest decrease in PFTs was observed 7-24 months after SBRT, with changes of −8.1% (95% CI, −13.3% to −5.3%) and −12.4% (95% CI, −15.5% to −6.9%), respectively. Using linear regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and normal tissue complication probability modeling, all evaluated parameters of tumor size, PTV dose, mean lung dose, and absolute and relative volumes of the lung exposed to minimum doses of 5-70 Gy were not correlated with early and late PFT changes. Subgroup analysis based on pre-SBRT PFTs (greater or equal and less than median) did not identify any dose-effect relationship. Conclusions: This study failed to demonstrate a significant dose-effect relationship for changes of pulmonary function after SBRT for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Downregulated miR-1247-5p associates with poor prognosis and facilitates tumor cell growth via DVL1/Wnt/β-catenin signaling in breast cancer

The abnormal expression of microRNAs is a key hallmark of breast cancer. Nevertheless, the biological roles of miR-1247-5p in breast cancer remain unknown. In this study, we revealed that miR-1247-5p expression was markedly decreased in breast cancer. It was a valuable diagnostic biomarker for breast cancer with the area under the curve of more than 0.80. Reduced miR-1247-5p expression was significantly correlated with patient age, tumor size, and poor prognosis in The Cancer Genome Atlas cohort including 839 breast cancer patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that miR-1247-5p was an independent prognostic indicator for overall survival (hazard radio [HR] = 1.683, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.087–2.606, p = 0.020) and recurrence-free survival (HR = 2.496, 95% CI = 1.576–3.951, p < 0.001). Moreover, functional studies showed that overexpression of miR-1247-5p inhibited proliferation and induced apoptosis in breast cancer cells. Bioinformatics analysis and mechanistic investigations revealed that Dishevelled 1 (DVL1) was a direct target of miR-1247-5p. Inhibition of DVL1 by miR-1247-5p resulted in the suppression of Wnt/β-catenin signaling, whereas overexpression of DVL1 abrogated the miR-1247-5p-mediated effect. These data reveal that miR-1247-5p, as an oncosuppressor in breast cancer, may be a promising prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Construction of 3D MHD pressure drop correlation and flow characterization in the contraction region of a fusion blanket manifold

Inlet and outlet manifolds are typical components of liquid metal (LM) blanket designs of a fusion power reactor to be used to distribute the LM flow into breeding channels and collect it at the exit of the blanket. High pressure loss in the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows featuring abrupt geometrical changes is one of the main feasibility issues of such designs. Recently, optimization studies were conducted to construct 3D MHD pressure drop correlations for a LM flow in an electrically insulating manifold with gradual expansion. Here, the 3D computational approach developed in that study is applied to the outlet manifold featuring gradual contraction. A systematic analysis was performed with a total number of 135 flow cases computed with COMSOL Multiphysics for Hartmann numbers 1000 < Ha < 10,000, Reynolds numbers 100 < Re < 12,000, and contraction angles 45° < θ < 75° for a fixed contraction ratio of 4. The effects of Ha, Re and θ on the flow recirculation, development length and the total pressure drop were carefully examined. A linear regression analysis was used to determine the power rule of pressure drop coefficient k related to Ha and Re, demonstrating a good match with the Ludford layer theory. Eventually, a correlation for the 3D MHD pressure drop coefficient was constructed as a function of Ha, Re and θ. Further, the results were compared against the inlet manifold. It was found that the flow in the inlet manifold exhibits larger recirculation zones. In the investigated range of Ha, Re and θ, the pressure drop coefficient k of the LM MHD flow in the gradual contraction is only slightly lower (< 8 %) than that in the gradual expansion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A robust gene expression-based prognostic risk score predicts overall survival of lung adenocarcinoma patients

Identification of reliable predictive biomarkers and new therapeutic targets is a critical step for significant improvement in patient outcomes. Here, we developed a multi-step bioinformatics analytic strategy to mine large omics and clinical data to build a prognostic scoring system for predicting the overall survival (OS) of lung adenocarcinoma (LuADC) patients. In latter we first identified 1327 significantly and robustly deregulated genes, 600 of which were significantly associated with the OS of LuADC patients. Gene co-expression network analysis revealed the biological functions of these 600 genes in normal lung and LuADCs, which were found to be enriched for cell cycle-related processes, blood vessel development, cell-matrix adhesion and metabolic processes. Finally, we implemented a multiple resampling method combined with Cox regression analysis to identify a 27-gene signature associated with OS, and then created a prognostic scoring system based on this signature. This scoring system robustly predicted OS of LuADC patients in 100 sampling test sets and was further validated in four independent LuADC cohorts. In addition, in comparison to other existing prognostic gene signatures published in the literature, our signature was significantly superior in predicting OS of LuADC patients. In summary, our multiomics and clinical data integration study created a 27-gene prognostic risk score that can predict OS of LuADC patients independent of age, gender and clinical stage. This score could guide therapeutic selection and allow stratification in clinical trials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Supervised Dimension Reduction for Scientific Discovery (LDRD QTI Report)

This report summarizes the findings of a four months FY24 Advanced Science & Technology (AS&T) LDRD Quick Targeted Investigation (QTI) project focused on the exploration of supervised dimension reduction approaches based on autoencoders. Autoencoders have been extensively employed in literature for unsupervised learning tasks, however, their use for supervised regression tasks, which are common within scientific applications, has been limited. Motivated by linear dimension reduction strategies like Active Subspaces and Adaptive Basis, we explored the possibility of employing autoencoders to discover a non-linear manifold able to represent the original function in fewer dimensions. In this report, we discuss a neural network architecture and we perform a numerical campaign on several problems ranging from simple two-dimensional functions to a model problem for magnetohydrodynamics in five dimensions. In our preliminary results, we show that the proposed approach is found to be superior to linear dimension reduction strategies in representing the target function even with a single latent variable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fatigue Reliability of Gas Turbine Engine Structures

The results of an investigation are described for fatigue reliability in engine structures. The description consists of two parts. Part 1 is for method development. Part 2 is a specific case study. In Part 1, the essential concepts and practical approaches to damage tolerance design in the gas turbine industry are summarized. These have evolved over the years in response to flight safety certification requirements. The effect of Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods on these methods is also reviewed. Assessment methods based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, with regard to both crack initiation and crack growth, are outlined. Limit state modeling techniques from structural reliability theory are shown to be appropriate for application to this problem, for both individual failure mode and system-level assessment. In Part 2, the results of a case study for the high pressure turbine of a turboprop engine are described. The response surface approach is used to construct a fatigue performance function. This performance function is used with the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to determine the probability of failure and the sensitivity of the fatigue life to the engine parameters for the first stage disk rim of the two stage turbine. A hybrid combination of regression and Monte Carlo simulation is to use incorporate time dependent random variables. System reliability is used to determine the system probability of failure, and the sensitivity of the system fatigue life to the engine parameters of the high pressure turbine. 'ne variation in the primary hot gas and secondary cooling air, the uncertainty of the complex mission loading, and the scatter in the material data are considered.

Cruse, Thomas A.↗

Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting peak spectral sensitivities of vertebrate cone visual pigments using atomistic molecular simulations

Vision is the dominant sensory modality in many organisms for foraging, predator avoidance, and social behaviors including mate selection. Vertebrate visual perception is initiated when light strikes rod and cone photoreceptors within the neural retina of the eye. Sensitivity to individual colors, i.e., peak spectral sensitivities (λ max ) of visual pigments, are a function of the type of chromophore and the amino acid sequence of the associated opsin protein in the photoreceptors. Large differences in peak spectral sensitivities can result from minor differences in amino acid sequence of cone opsins. To determine how minor sequence differences could result in large spectral shifts we selected a spectrally-diverse group of 14 teleost Rh2 cone opsins for which sequences and λ max are experimentally known. Classical molecular dynamics simulations were carried out after embedding chromophore-associated homology structures within explicit bilayers and water. These simulations revealed structural features of visual pigments, particularly within the chromophore, that contributed to diverged spectral sensitivities. Statistical tests performed on all the observed structural parameters associated with the chromophore revealed that a two-term, first-order regression model was sufficient to accurately predict λ max over a range of 452–528 nm. The approach was accurate, efficient and simple in that site-by-site molecular modifications or complex quantum mechanics models were not required to predict λ max . These studies identify structural features associated with the chromophore that may explain diverged spectral sensitivities, and provide a platform for future, functionally predictive opsin modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Lethality is Local, but Survival is Systemic: Temporal and Multi-Organ Responses to Chlorine Gas Exposure in a Murine Model

Chlorine gas (Cl2) is a highly toxic chemical associated with both localized lung injury and systemic health effects. While pulmonary damage has been well characterized, the systemic inflammatory and metabolic responses remain poorly understood. We aimed to define the temporal and multi-organ responses to Cl2 exposure in a murine model, with a focus on identifying spatiotemporal inflammation and its impact on survival and lethality. SKH1 mice were exposed for 10 min to varying concentrations of Cl2 (94.4–810 ppm, representative of non-lethal, LD10, and LD50 doses) and monitored for respiratory function, perfusion, and acidosis using organ-specific imaging. At multiple time points (40 min, 6 h, 24 h, and 7 d), we measured phosphoproteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and metabolic hormones in the lungs, heart, cortex, and plasma. Statistical modeling and logistic regression were used to identify biomarkers associated with lethality and survival. We found that lung injury was the primary cause of potential lethality, particularly via early phosphoprotein signaling disruptions. However, survival correlated with early systemic coordination of inflammatory and metabolic signals across organs. Perfusion and acidosis imaging were strongly associated with chemokine and hormone responses. Key survival-associated plasma biomarkers included decreased insulin, increased ghrelin, and decreased eotaxin. While potential lethality from Cl2 exposure is locally driven by pulmonary injury, survival depends on systemic, multi-organ responses that occur rapidly post-exposure. Within this model, our findings identify a potential therapeutic window to enhance survival and suggest candidate biomarkers that may be explored translationally for both triage and treatment of chlorine-related incidents.

chlorine gas↗

Moltensaltpropnet

MoltenSaltPropnet is a physics-informed machine learning framework that aims to predict the thermophysical properties of molten fluoride and chloride salt mixtures, which are crucial for the design and safety of Generation IV molten salt reactors. The code processes data from the Molten-Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB-TP) and the Janz compendium, converting critically evaluated correlations into fast, differentiable surrogate models for density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity across 448 distinct salt systems. The implementation consists of several key components: 1. Data Curation: The code parses and cleans the raw data, normalizing elemental mole fractions and extracting relevant regression coefficients for various thermophysical properties. 2. Feature Engineering: It generates fixed-length numerical descriptors that encapsulate the composition and temperature, incorporating polynomial interaction terms and dimensionality-reduction techniques to optimize model performance. 3. Coefficient Learning: Four different machine learning architectures are employed: a deep residual network (ResNet), a Kolmogorov–Arnold network (KAN), a sparsity-inducing neural network (SNN), and classical regression models. Each model learns to predict coefficients that define the temperature-dependent correlations for the thermophysical properties. 4. Property Reconstruction: The predicted coefficients are used to compute temperature-dependent property values, ensuring positivity and monotonic trends through a composite loss function that enforces physical constraints. 5. User Interface: An open-source web application enables users to filter the database, train task-specific models, and visualize the results, allowing for rapid exploration of candidate salt mixtures. MoltenSaltPropnet bridges the gap between limited experimental data and high-fidelity reactor simulations, providing a powerful tool for researchers in the field of molten salt reactors and advanced nuclear energy systems.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Monitoring wheat growth with radar

The scattering properties of wheat in the 8-18 GHz band were studied as a function of frequency, polarization, incidence angle, and crop maturity. Supporting ground truth was collected at the time of measurement. The data indicate the radar backscattering coefficient is sensitive to both radar system parameters and crop characteristics, particularly at incidence angles near nadir. Linear regression analysis of the backscattering coefficient (dB) on both time and plant moisture content result in rather good correlation, as high as 0.9, with the slope of these regression lines being 0.55 dB/day and -0.275 dB% plant moisture at 9.4 GHz at nadir. It is found that the coefficient undergoes rapid variations shortly before and after the wheat is harvested. Both of these analyses suggest methods for estimating wheat maturity and for monitoring the progress of harvest.

Bush, T. F.↗

Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

Stratospheric Transport↗