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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s), and combination (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to 5 m/s). The project was divided into a Feasibility Study and Comparative Study. The objectives for the Feasibility Study were to develop an installation strategy, redesign a previous iteration of a UAD to improve performance and weatherization, and test the effectiveness of the deterrents on bat activity. The Feasibility Study was intended to work out potential issues using a relatively small number of devices prior to manufacturing and installing numerous devices for a larger-scale comparative study. The division of the project into these separate studies was based on previous experience and the challenges of assessing the capabilities of an untested UAD. During the initial development and manufacturing of the UAD, NRG Systems decided to use a piezoelectric transducer rather than an electrostatic transducer, which was used by a previous device (i.e. Deaton UAD). NRG Systems conducted lab testing (i.e., IP67 or Ingress Protection) to ensure no water or dust ingress. In addition, shock/drop trials and variations in temperature exposure were conducted as part of the reliability testing. NRG Systems also developed a communications system to allow for continuous performance monitoring of the UADs. For the Feasibility Study, we installed 6 UADs on each of 2 Gamesa G90 2-MW wind turbines (Turbine 14 and 8) at the South Chestnut Wind Energy Facility, Pennsylvania and monitored activity under control and treatment (i.e. Deterrent) conditions using thermal video monitoring. There are two major sources of variation in bat activity (beyond the anticipated treatment effect): 1) environment around the turbines might inherently favor more activity at one than the other; 2) weather conditions on any given night or within season difference (e.g., migration later during the study period) might favor more activity on some nights than on other nights. Because we could only monitor two turbines on any night, we sought to control the potential influences of these two sources by alternating the turbine on which deterrents were activated each night. If there were no loss of data due to technical failures, this design would result in an equal number of deterrent and control nights at each turbine through the monitoring period, balancing the effects of both sources of variation. We compared the time bats spent and the number of events that occurred in overlapping cameras FOV as an indicator of risk, since 80% of the overlapping FOV of the cameras was in the RSA. Equipment failures, majority due to lightning, resulted in only 17 nights with useable data, with unbalanced treatment assignment within turbines and uneven distribution of treatment assignment throughout the observational period. This resulted in a confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal change. Deterrent treatment was measured at Turbine 14 on only 2 of the first 8 usable nights (spanning the period from 8/18-9/17), whereas 6 times on Turbine 8. From 9/18-927, deterrent was on at Turbine 14 on 6 of the remaining 10 nights, and 4 on Turbine 8. We recorded a total of 1,057 bats and observed a reduction in number of events and duration of events at the UAD-activated turbine when it was Turbine 14. When Turbine 8 had the UAD activated, we observed no difference in number or duration of events. Variation between turbines is not unusual and can cause issues when study designs have no true replication, i.e., multiple turbines per treatment. Within-turbine differences suggested a trend for reduced activity when UADs were activated, particularly for Turbine 14. These results may be caused by the overall higher bat activity at Turbine 8 and confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal trends. We mapped 58 bat events in 3-dimensional space (3D), 30 and 28 events during control and treatment conditions, respectively. We observed bats crossing the rotor plane under both control and treatment conditions and observed a total of 40 confirmed or near-collisions (i.e., target close to blade but no visual confirmation of a strike) out of a total of 1,491 medium and high confidence bat observations (880 control, 611 at treatment). Twice as many collisions/possible collisions were observed during control conditions. Given the challenges with the equipment and potential confounding of the data (i.e., different activity levels at the two wind turbines), we were unable to determine whether this initial turbine placement and orientation was optimal. Given no new information on how best to install the devices, we elected to use the same placement and orientation for the comparative study. For the Comparative Study, the objectives were to investigate the relative mortality rates among 4 treatments. We searched the area within 90 m of each turbine daily to recover the highest number of fresh fatalities possible. We were unable to detect a clear reduction in mortality from deterrents alone for any individual species. Surprisingly, mortality rate of the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) was estimated to be 1.3–4.2 times as much when turbines were operating normally and UADs were on than when UADs were off. Reduction in mortality of all bat species combined due to curtailment of turbines was estimated to be between 0%–38%. This effect was nullified when, in addition to curtailment, UADs were on, with 95% confidence interval ranging from a 45% reduction to a 36% increase in mortality. This was likely due to the large proportion of eastern red bats in the total carcass population. Mortality of all low-frequency echolocating bats combined (i.e. hoary bat [L. cinereus], big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus], silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) relative to control was lower when curtailed (95% CI: 0%–74%), but the addition of UADs had no detectable effect (95%CI: 13%–79%). The combined treatment reduced mortality in silver-haired bats relative to control by 11%–99%, compared to curtailment (81% reduction–67% increase) or deterrent (82% reduction–67% increase) alone. Because silver-haired bats comprised a large proportion of low-frequency calling bats found during this study, a similar effect was seen for that group. The higher mortality observed for eastern red bats at UAD compared to control could have been caused by several factors, such as the effective range of the UAD, particularly at higher frequencies, behavior, positioning of the devices on the nacelle, or a combination of these. We used 3D thermal videography to compare control and UAD bat behavior from two turbines using a total of 203 3D bat-tracks across 34 nights. We recorded a similar number of bat-tracks between treatment groups, with 51% and 49% for control and UAD, respectively. Due to potential differences in bat behavior around spinning vs stationary turbine blades, we examined UAD effectiveness separately for non-operating turbines (feathered below cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s) and operating (normal operation above wind speed of 3.5 m/s). We found a higher proportion of bat-tracks at operating turbines (82%) compared to non-operating turbines (18%), although this does not account for overall time turbines were operating versus not. At non-operating turbines the UAD appears to be effective at reducing the amount of time, flight length, and number of passes through the rotor plane, compared to control. In addition, we found bats approached turbines similarly between control and treatment turbines, with 61% of control and 63% of UAD bat-tracks originating leeward of the hub. In contrast, at operating turbines, we saw little change in bat behavior in response to UADs. For example, we found an increase in the average duration of bat-tracks between non-operating and operating turbines for UAD but at control turbines we found average duration decreased once turbines became operational. Both control and UAD had a high proportion of bat-tracks that crossed the rotor plane (i.e., collision risk) originate from the windward side when turbines were operational 65% to 92%, respectively. Given that the UAD devices closest to the blades were orientated parallel to the blades, its possible bats were not exposed to the signal until they were close to the turbine blades, as suggested by the slightly higher mean duration within 5 meters of the blades for UAD turbines. Future research should consider concentrating UAD intensity on the areas of risk (i.e. blades) with enough buffer to allow bats to react to the sound before entering the rotor-swept area (RSA). In addition, investigating the potential of installing UAD units windward of the turbine blades (e.g. a hub-mounted UAD), particularly since even under control conditions, a relatively high proportion (65%) of crosses through the blade plane originated windward. 3D thermal videography provided valuable information on future testing strategies (e.g. device placement, UAD orientation) to improve UAD effectiveness when bats are at risk (i.e., operating wind turbines). Across the entire project we experienced issues with the operation and communication with the UADs. Most of the issues occurred during the Feasibility Study and were resolved prior to the Comparability Study. Additional challenges surfaced during the Comparability Study but were remedied immediately and are thought to have little impact on the results. We had logistical constraints at the project that limited our ability use traditional methods in our camera calibration. Several calibrations showed inaccurate scales, which may have been related to inadequate spatial coverage of “points” in the camera calibration volume. Because we were using actual video recordings of bats at a wind turbine, the behavior of bats could have concentrated “points” in specific areas of the turbine (i.e. leeward of nacelle), and limited “points” in other areas, resulting in camera calibration issues. We have plans to address these inconsistencies and improving the software and related methodologies by early 2020.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measuring the thermal conductivity of hydrogels with a bidirectional 3w method

Hydrogels are soft, water-absorbing polymer materials with diverse applications in biomedicine and agriculture. Recently, hydrogels have been proposed to encapsulate water-soluble phase change materials which store energy in their latent heat of solidification. In these applications, the thermal conductivity of these materials affects their performance. Few methods exist for measuring the thermal conductivity of small quantities of hydrogels. Here, we describe an implementation of the bidirectional 3w technique to measure the thermal conductivity of hydrogels with particular attention to their moisture content. Our implementation of the technique can probe sample volumes as little as ~20 mL and yields the thermal conductivity without requiring fitting of additional thermal parameters. We numerically simulate 3w sensor designs with frequency-domain 3-D models to quantify and reduce errors introduced by the choice of substrate and insulation layer thickness. Frequencies in the ~1−20 Hz range yield less error for the materials considered here. We verify our setup with measurements on water and report values for polyacrylamide and poly(2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid) (PAMPS) hydrogels. Our swollen hydrogels exhibited thermal conductivities nearly equivalent to water, 0.6 W m-1 K-1, and we estimate thermal conductivities of 0.43 and 0.42 W m-1 K-1 for neat polyacrylamide and PAMPS, respectively. Finally, we estimate an error of ±7%, consistent with other 3ω methods, with the largest error coming from the sensor calibration. We find our implementation of the bidirectional 3w method gives reasonable results and can be employed for prototyping soft materials relevant for thermal storage.

3-omega, thermal conductivity, hydrogel, moisture ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical-heating effects in atmospheric pressure streamer discharges simulated with a PIC code

Artificial heating in plasma simulations is a well-known phenomenon which occurs when, among other things, the Debye length is poorly resolved by the simulation mesh. Here, in this work, the degree to which numerical-heating occurs during a simulation of a nanosecond atmospheric pressure streamer discharge is examined. The streamer is simulated using a two-dimensional finite-element, particle-in-cell code Empire, which uses direct simulation Monte Carlo for binary particle interactions. Initially, an estimate of the numerical-heating rate applied to Empire is performed using a simple plasma model. Second, a positive atmospheric pressure streamer discharge simulation is performed to study the effects of numerical heating on plasma density, electron temperature, and streamer velocity. The nominal Debye length is approximately 1 μm and the amount of numerical heating introduced in the simulation is varied by using mesh sizes ranging from 2 μm to 20 μm. A measurable numerical heating quantity is proposed that can be used to estimate the appropriate element size and quantify the numerical-heating that can be expected over the simulation time for an atmospheric pressure streamer. In conclusion while Δx/λ D violations can be an issue it is not likely to be an issue with streamer discharges that are temporally short and occur in environments where collision frequencies are high. This result validates the rationale of grid size choices for a large amount of previously published works where Δx/λ D violation was not clearly addressed. Primary finding of this work is that numerical heating is of minor concern for plasma simulations where electron–neutral collisions are numerous such that multiple collisions can occur within a single plasma period.

Nikic, Dejan [University of New Mexico, Albuquerqu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probing Transit Timing Variation and Its Possible Origin with 12 New Transits of TrES-3b

We present 12 new transit light curves of the hot-Jupiter TrES-3b observed during 2012−2018 to probe the transit timing variation (TTV). By combining the midtransit times determined from these 12 transit data with those reestimated through uniform procedure from 71 transit data available in the literature, we derive new linear ephemeris and obtain the timing residuals that suggest the possibility of TTV in the TrES-3 system. However, the frequency analysis shows that the possible TTV is unlikely to be periodic, indicating the absence of an additional body in this system. To explore the other possible origins of TTV, the orbital decay and apsidal precession ephemeris models are fitted to the transit time data. We find the decay rate of TrES-3b to be P-dot {sub q}=−4.1±3.1 ms yr{sup −1}, and the corresponding estimated modified stellar tidal quality factor of Q{sub ∗}{sup ′}∼1.11×10{sup 5} is consistent with the theoretically predicted values for the stars hosting the hot-Jupiters. The shift in the transit arrival time of TrES-3b after 11 years is expected to be T {sub shift} ∼ 69.55 s, which is consistent with the rms of the timing residuals. Besides, we find that the apsidal precession ephemeris model is statistically less probable than the other considered ephemeris models. It is also discussed that despite the fact that the linear ephemeris model appears to be the most plausible model to represent the transit time data, the possibility of the orbital decay cannot be completely ruled out in the TrES-3 system. To confirm this, further high-precision and high-cadence follow-up observation of transits of TrES-3b would be important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grandparent Inference from Genetic Data: The Potential for Parentage-Based Tagging Programs to Identify Offspring of Hatchery Strays

Abstract Fisheries managers routinely use hatcheries to increase angling opportunity. Many hatcheries operate as segregated programs where hatchery-origin fish are not intended to spawn with natural-origin conspecifics in order to prevent potential negative effects on the natural-origin population. Currently available techniques to monitor the frequency with which hatchery-origin strays successfully spawn in the wild rely on either genetic differentiation between the hatchery- and natural-origin fish or extensive sampling of fish on the spawning grounds. We present a method to infer grandparent–grandchild trios by using only genotypes from two putative grandparents and one putative grandchild. We developed estimators of false-positive and false-negative error rates and showed that genetic panels containing 500–700 single-nucleotide polymorphisms or 200–300 microhaplotypes are expected to allow application of this technique for monitoring segregated hatchery programs. We discuss the ease with which this technique can be implemented by pre-existing parentage-based tagging programs and provide an R package that applies the method.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck intermediate results. LVI. Detection of the CMB dipole through modulation of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect: Eppur si muove II

The largest temperature anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is the dipole, which has been measured with increasing accuracy for more than three decades, particularly with the Planck satellite. The simplest interpretation of the dipole is that it is due to our motion with respect to the rest frame of the CMB. Since current CMB experiments infer temperature anisotropies from angular intensity variations, the dipole modulates the temperature anisotropies with the same frequency dependence as the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect. Here, we present the first, and significant, detection of this signal in the tSZ maps and find that it is consistent with direct measurements of the CMB dipole, as expected. The signal contributes power in the tSZ maps, which is modulated in a quadrupolar pattern, and we estimate its contribution to the tSZ bispectrum, noting that it contributes negligible noise to the bispectrum at relevant scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Safety Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) are being tested by different nuclear vendors and research organizations and their introduction in the US light water reactors fleet is planned for the second half of the 2020`s. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis pathway, researches are being conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory for developing tools and methods that can help the industry quantifying the benefits from the adoption of ATF technology. In this paper we describe the developed risk-informed methodology including the safety analysis codes improvements, and we present some results for selected accident scenarios. The developed methodology combines INL state-of-the-art deterministic Best Estimate code RELAP5-3D, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis tools RAVEN and SAPHIRE. The analyses are performed on a three-loops pressurized water reactor, simulating Station Blackout and LB-LOCA accidents and considering near-term ATFs, or FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads. Finally, we show how, applying our methodology, the new Core Damage Frequency can be assessed. The results indicated that the main benefits in introducing near-term ATFs concern a significant reduction in the hydrogen production during accident conditions. No significant Core Damage Frequency reduction was found.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear self-focusing in strongly magnetized pair plasma

An intense radiation field can modify plasma properties and the corresponding refractive index and lead to nonlinear propagation effects such as self-focusing. In this work, we estimate the corresponding effects in pair plasmas for circularly polarized waves, in both unmagnetized and strongly magnetically dominated cases. First, in the unmagnetized pair plasma the ponderomotive force does not lead to charge separation but to density depletion. Second, for astrophysically relevant plasmas of pulsar magnetospheres [and possible loci of fast radio bursts (FRBs)], where the cyclotron frequency $ω_B$ dominates over the plasma frequency $ω_p$ and the frequency of the electromagnetic wave $ω_B \gg ω_p, ω$, we show that (i) there is virtually no nonlinearity due to changing effective mass in the field of the wave; (ii) the ponderomotive force is $F^{(B)}_p = –m_ec^2/4B^2_0∇E^2$, which is reduced by a factor $(ω/ω_B)^2$ if compared to the unmagnetized case ($B_0$ is the external magnetic field and $\textit{E}$ is the electric field of the wave); and (iii) for a radiation beam propagating along a constant magnetic field in the pair plasma with density $n_±$, the ponderomotive force leads to the appearance of circular currents that lead to a decrease of the field within the beam by a factor $ΔB/B_0 = 2πn_±m_ec^2E^2 /B^4_0$. Applications to the physics of FRBs are discussed; we conclude that for the parameters of FRBs, the dominant magnetic field completely suppresses nonlinear self-focusing or filamentation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Entropy and Enthalpy of Insertion Materials for Battery Applications Via the Multi-Species, Multi-Reaction Model

The entropy coefficient of a battery cell is the property that governs the amount of reversible heat that is generated during operation. In this work, we propose an extension of the Multi-Species, Multi-Reaction (MSMR) model to capture the entropy coefficient of a large format lithium-ion battery cell. We utilize the hybridized time-frequency domain analysis (HTFDA) method using a multi-functional calorimeter to probe the entropy coefficient of a large format pouch type lithium-ion battery with a NMC 811 cathode and a graphite anode. The measured entropy coefficient profile of the battery cell is deconvoluted into an entropy coefficient for each active material, which is then estimated using an extension of the MSMR model. Finally, we extend the entropy of a material to individual entropy for each gallery as treated by the model.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR≤1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: The following decreasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby TDP FTR>1H failure rate • Standby TDP unavailability • Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of run hours (hours per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous Observation of Two Isolated Proton Auroras at Subauroral Latitudes by a Highly Sensitive All-Sky Camera and Van Allen Probes

Isolated proton auroras (IPAs) appearing at subauroral latitudes are generated by energetic protons precipitating from the magnetosphere through interaction with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves. An IPA thus indicates the spatial scale and temporal variation of wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere. In this study, a unique event of simultaneous ground and magnetospheric satellite observations of two IPAs were conducted on March 16, 2015, using an all-sky imager at Athabasca, Canada and Van Allen Probes. The Van Allen Probes observed two isolated EMIC waves with frequencies of ~1 and 0.4 Hz at L ≈ 5.0 when the satellite footprint crossed over the two IPAs. This suggests that the IPAs were caused by localized EMIC waves. Proton flux at 5–20 keV increased locally when the EMIC waves appeared. Electron flux at energies below ~500 eV also increased. Temperature anisotropy of the energetic protons was estimated at 1.5–2.5 over a wide L-value range of 3.0–5.2. Electron density gradually decreased from L = 3.5 to 5.4, suggesting that the EMIC wave at L ≈ 5.0 was located in the gradual plasmapause. From these observations, we conclude that the localized IPAs and associated EMIC waves took place because of localized enhancement of energetic proton flux and plasma density structure near the plasmapause. Furthermore, the magnetic field observed by the satellite showed small variation during the wave observation, indicating that the IPAs were accompanied by the weak field-aligned current.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrostatic gate-controlled quantum interference in a high-mobility two-dimensional electron gas at the (La 0.3 ⁢Sr 0.7 )(Al 0.65 ⁢Ta 0.35 )O 3 /SrTiO 3 interface

Here, we report quantum oscillations in magnetoresistance that are periodic in magnetic field (𝐵), observed at the interface between (La 0.3 ⁢Sr 0.7 )(Al 0.65 ⁢Ta 0.35 )O 3 and SrTiO 3 . Unlike Shubnikov–de Haas oscillations, which appear at magnetic fields > 7 T and diminish quickly as the temperature rises, these 𝐵-periodic oscillations emerge at low fields and persist up to 10 K. Their amplitude decays exponentially with both temperature and field, specifying dephasing of quantum interference. Increasing the carrier density through electrostatic gating results in a systematic reduction in both the amplitude and frequency of the oscillations, with complete suppression beyond a certain gate voltage. We attribute these oscillations to the Altshuler-Aronov-Spivak effect, likely arising from naturally formed closed-loop paths due to the interconnected quasi-one-dimensional conduction channels along SrTiO 3 domain walls. The relatively long phase coherence length (≃ 1.8 µ⁢m at 0.1 K), estimated from the oscillation amplitude, highlights the potential of complex oxide interfaces as a promising platform for exploring quantum interference effects and advancing device concepts in quantum technologies, such as mesoscopic interferometers and quantum sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Multipoles in the RCS

The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Electron--Ion Collider (EIC) will accelerate polarized electrons up to 18 GeV at a repetition rate of 1 Hz. Dynamic multipoles driven by eddy currents in the vacuum chamber can affect beam dynamics and polarization preservation during the energy ramp. Building on the analytical treatment of S.Y. Lee for a ramped normal-conducting dipole magnet, we use conformal transformations to derive compact expressions for dynamic multipoles in higher-order ramped magnets with circular beam pipes. We further derive analytical frequency-domain transfer functions for both self-response and cross-response multipoles, providing compact dynamical models for their evolution during arbitrary ramp waveforms. The resulting analytical predictions are benchmarked against finite-element simulations, including the effects of practical pole geometry and beam-pipe misalignment. Finally, the expected dynamic multipoles in the RCS magnets are estimated and their implications for beam dynamics and polarization preservation are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of direct and indirect noise in a next-generation aviation gas turbine combustor

A large-eddy simulation (LES) of a next-generation combustor is performed to examine effects of this combustor concepts on direct and indirect combustion noise characteristics. Direct noise is computed considering the unsteady heat release predictions while entropy fluctuations in the downstream part of the combustor are used to estimate indirect noise through the transfer function of the outlet nozzle. A low-order acoustic reconstruction technique, which utilizes the Green’s function of the configuration, is developed to compute the acoustics inside the combustor. Comparisons to experimental results are reported, showing the reasonable accuracy of the LES and combustion noise computations. The direct noise spectrum peaks at frequencies around 3 kHz because of the fast timescales associated with the chemical reactions inside the combustor. In addition, the indirect noise is dominant at low frequencies, i.e., less than 400 Hz, because of the characteristics of the entropy spectrum at the outlet nozzle. Further, compared to a conventional rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustor configuration, significant differences in the acoustics are observed, and are explained by two specific technological novelties. Firstly, the direct noise spectrum peaks at significantly higher frequencies due to the combustor’s compactness. Secondly, the entropy inhomogeneties downstream of the combustion region are an order of magnitude smaller in amplitude due to the lack of dilution with cold air. This leads to a significant reduction in the indirect noise amplitude at low frequencies, where it is the dominant source of noise. These results suggest opportunities for advanced combustion technologies to achieve substantial reductions in combustion-related noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Public data from three US states provide new insights into well integrity

Significance There are over 900,000 active oil and gas wells in the United States. Estimates of the percentage of these wells that leak during their lifetime have been limited by data availability. We mined publicly available records from state regulatory databases and synthesized the results of various well testing methods into a uniform dataset that describes the integrity of 105,031 wells. Our analysis of the dataset provides insight into regional well leakage frequencies in three US states (Colorado, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania), spatial and temporal leakage trends among vertical and directional wells, and the characteristics of leaked fluids. Our findings demonstrate the value of statewide well testing programs and highlight the challenges of interpreting disparate interjurisdictional well testing data.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗