Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “emergence of patterns”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗

Hierarchical Mixture of Experts for Advanced Air Mobility Flight Phase Classification

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations will have numerous vehicles and aircraft flying in the airspace, which poses safety and security concerns. Commercial airlines utilize Air Traffic Management (ATM) and Air Traffic Control (ATC) for real-time monitoring, surveillance, traffic coordination, and rerouting to maintain safe and efficient flight patterns. Transferring ATM and ATC architectures to AAM/UAM will be difficult to implement since AAM/UAM aircraft fly at lower altitudes, have more static and dynamic obstacles, operate in highly dense environments, and have several more aircraft to monitor for a given volume of the national airspace (NAS). Automatic flight phase classification will enhance efficiencies of ATM/ATC-like architectures for AAM/UAM. Classifying the main flight phases (takeoff, climb, cruise, descent, and landing) provides insight to ensure safe operations, provide situational awareness of the NAS, and monitor flights in case there are any emergencies. Typical flight phase classification methods are all-or-nothing, which will not capture or accurately classify the transitions between flight phases. Utilizing hierarchical mixture of experts (HME) provides a flight phase classification solution that includes transitions between the flight phases by assigning weights based on ground-based distributed sensor readings from cameras and radar. Adding the transitions between flight phases increases the fidelity of flight phase classification and provides deeper insight for flight phase classification by leveraging distributed sensing concepts.

distributed sensing↗

Cellular fluidics

The natural world provides many examples of multiphase transport and reaction processes that have been optimized by evolution. These phenomena take place at multiple length and time scales and typically include gas–liquid–solid interfaces and capillary phenomena in porous media. Many biological and living systems have evolved to optimize fluidic transport. However, living things are exceptionally complex and very difficult to replicate, and human-made microfluidic devices (which are typically planar and enclosed) are highly limited for multiphase process engineering. In this paper, we introduce the concept of cellular fluidics: a platform of unit-cell-based, three-dimensional structures—enabled by emerging 3D printing methods—for the deterministic control of multiphase flow, transport and reaction processes. We show that flow in these structures can be ‘programmed’ through architected design of cell type, size and relative density. We demonstrate gas–liquid transport processes such as transpiration and absorption, using evaporative cooling and CO 2 capture as examples. We design and demonstrate preferential liquid and gas transport pathways in three-dimensional cellular fluidic devices with capillary-driven and actively pumped liquid flow, and present examples of selective metallization of pre-programmed patterns. Our results show that the design and fabrication of architected cellular materials, coupled with analytical and numerical predictions of steady-state and dynamic behaviour of multiphase interfaces, provide deterministic control of fluidic transport in three dimensions. Cellular fluidics may transform the design space for spatial and temporal control of multiphase transport and reaction processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

System Concepts for the Advanced Post-TRMM Rainfall Profiling Radars

Global rainfall is the primary distributor of latent heat through atmospheric circulation. The recently launched Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite is dedicated to advance our understanding of tropical precipitation patterns and their implications on global climate and its change. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the satellite is the first radar ever flown in space and has provided. exciting, new data on the 3-D rain structures for a variety of scientific uses. However, due to the limited mission lifetime and the dynamical nature of precipitation, the TRMM PR data acquired cannot address all the issues associated with precipitation, its related processes, and the long-term climate variability. In fact, a number of new post-TRMM mission concepts have emerged in response to the recent NASA's request for new ideas on Earth science missions at the post 2002 era. This paper will discuss the system concepts for two advanced, spaceborne rainfall profiling radars. In the first portion of this paper, we will present a system concept for a second-generation spaceborne precipitation radar for operations at the Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The key PR-2 electronics system will possess the following capabilities: (1) A 13.6/35 GHz dual frequency radar electronics that has Doppler and dual-polarization capabilities. (2) A large but light weight, dual-frequency, wide-swath scanning, deployable antenna. (3) Digital chirp generation and the corresponding on-board pulse compression scheme. This will allow a significant improvement on rain signal detection without using the traditional, high-peak-power transmitters and without sacrificing the range resolution. (4) Radar electronics and algorithm to adaptively scan the antenna so that more time can be spent to observe rain rather than clear air. and (5) Built-in flexibility on the radar parameters and timing control such that the same radar can be used by different future rain missions. This will help to reduce the overall instrument development costs. In the second portion of this paper, we will present a system concept for a geostationary rainfall monitoring radar for operations at the geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). In particular, the science requirements, the observational strategy, the instrument design, and the required technologies will be discussed.

Im, Eastwood↗

Directing Charge Carriers and Ferroelectric Domains at Lateral Interfaces in van der Waals Heterostructures

Emergent phenomena in traditional ferroelectrics are frequently observed at heterointerfaces. Accessing such functionalities in van der Waals ferroelectrics requires the formation of layered heterostructures, either vertically stacked (similar to oxide ferroelectrics) or laterally stitched (without equivalent in 3D-crystals). Here, we investigate lateral heterostructures of the ferroelectric van der Waals semiconductors SnSe and SnS. A two-step process produces ultrathin crystals comprising an SnSe core laterally joined to an SnS edge-band, as confirmed by Raman spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging, and electron diffraction. TEM shows a moiré pattern across the SnSe core due to coverage by an ultrathin SnS layer. The ability of the lateral interface (IF) to direct excited carriers, probed by cathodoluminescence, shows electron transfer over 560 nm diffusion length from the SnS edge-band. Large, thin flakes supporting ferroelectricity allow investigating domains and domain wall interactions in uniform crystals and lateral heterostructures. Polarized optical microscopy of sub-20 nm flakes consistently shows ⟨110⟩ oriented stripe domains with mirror-twin domain walls. Heterostructures adopt two domain configurations, with domains either constrained to the SnSe core or propagating across the entire SnSe–SnS flakes. Furthermore, the combined results demonstrate multifunctional van der Waals heterostructures with high-quality IFs presenting extraordinary opportunities for manipulating carrier flows and ferroelectric domain patterns.

2D ferroelectrics↗

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

Bachmann, Kurt T.↗

The Mars Atmosphere Water Ice Aerosol Climatology by MRO/CRISM: 5 Mars Years of Observations

We use near-infrared spectra returned from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to provide retrievals of the column-integrated optical depth of water ice aerosols for more than 5 Martian years between Mars Year (MY) 28 at Ls = 112° (27 September 2006) and MY 33 at Ls = 213° (30 August 2016). We have developed a radiative transfer model for this purpose that retrieves aerosol opacity from the water ice aerosol feature near 3.3 μm using CRISM hyperspectral observations for the first time. The resulting retrievals well depict the main features in the water ice aerosol climatology with repeatable patterns every Martian year. The aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is observed between 10°S and 30°N, with peak optical depth around Ls = 90°. Apart from the global dust storm during MY 28, modest interannual variability in the water ice aerosol optical depth is observed in the ACB. The north polar hood is observed at latitudes poleward of 45°N throughout northern spring and summer seasons and reappears in northern winter. The south polar hood is observed in early to mid-southern autumn, reaching latitudes around 60°S, and re-emerging during southern winter between 45°S and 60°S. A lack of water ice aerosols is repeatedly seen in the southern hemisphere throughout southern spring and summer. High optical depth in the ACB is observed over the volcanoes of Olympus Mons, Elysium, and the Tharsis bulge, as well as over Hellas Basin.

Mars↗

TriC: Distributed-memory Triangle Counting by Exploiting the Graph Structure

Graph analytics has emerged as an important tool in the analysis of large scale data from diverse application domains such as social networks, cyber security and bioinformatics. Counting the number of triangles in a graph is a fundamental kernel with several applications such as detecting the community structure of a graph or in identifying important vertices in a graph. The ubiquity of massive datasets is driving the need to scale graph analytics on parallel systems. However, numerous challenges exist in efficiently parallelizing graph algorithms, especially on distributed-memory systems. Irregular memory accesses and communication patterns, low computation to communication ratios, and the need for frequent synchronization are some of the leading challenges. In this paper, we present TriC, our distributed-memory implementation of triangle counting in graphs using the Message Passing Interface (MPI), as a submission to the 2020 GraphChallenge competition. Using a set of synthetic and real-world inputs from the challenge, we demonstrate a speedup of up to 90x relative to previous work on 32 processor-cores of a NERSC Cori node. We also provide details from distributed runs with up to8192 processes along with strong scaling results. The observations presented in this work provide an understanding of the system-level bottlenecks at scale that specifically impact sparse-irregular workloads and will therefore benefit other efforts to parallelize graph algorithms.

Halappanavar, Mahantesh↗

Photoluminescence Dynamics Defined by Exciton Trapping Potential of Coupled Defect States in DNA-Functionalized Carbon Nanotubes

Chemical reactions between semiconducting single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) and single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) achieve spatially patterned covalent functionalization sites and create coupled fluorescent quantum defects on the nanotube surface, tailoring SWCNT photophysics for applications such as single-photon emitters in quantum information technologies. The evaluation of relaxation dynamics of photoluminescence (PL) from those coupled quantum defects is essential for understanding the nanotube electronic structure and beneficial to the design of quantum light emitters. Here, we measured the PL decay for ssDNA-functionalized SWCNTs as a function of the guanine content of the ssDNA oligo that dictates the red-shifting of their PL emission peaks relative to the band-edge exciton. We then correlate the observed dependence of PL decay dynamics on energy red-shifts to the exciton potential energy landscape, which is modeled using first-principles approaches based upon the morphology of ssDNA-altered SWCNTs obtained by atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging. In this work, our simulations illustrate that the multiple guanine defects introduced within a single ssDNA strand strongly interact to create a deep exciton trapping well, acting as a single hybrid trap. The emission decay from the distinctive trapping potential landscape is found to be biexponential for ssDNA-modified SWCNTs. We attributed the fast time component of the biexponential PL decay to the redistribution of exciton population among the lowest energy bright states and a manifold of dark states emerging from the coupling of multiple guanine defects. The long lifetime component in the biexponential decay, on the other hand, is attributed to the redistribution of exciton population among different exciton trapping sites that arise from the binding of multiple ssDNA strands along the nanotube axis. AFM measurements indicate that those trapping sites are separated on average by ~8 nm along the nanotube axis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Intermittent Frontogenesis in the Alboran Sea

Abstract We present a phenomenological description and dynamical analysis of the Alboran fronts using a realistic simulation at submesoscale resolution. The study is focused on east Alboran fronts emerging within relatively strong flows that separate from the Spanish coast into the basin interior. Despite modest lateral shifting associated with the position of the Alboran anticyclonic gyres and variations in intensity, these fronts present a similar structure and dynamical configuration as the climatological Almeria–Oran front. The statistical analysis of our solution shows that strained-induced frontogenesis is a recurrent submesoscale mechanism associated with these fronts, and the process is assessed in terms of the advective Lagrangian frontogenetic tendencies associated with buoyancy and velocity horizontal gradients. Intermittency in their strength and patterns is indicative of high variability in the occurrence of active frontogenesis in association with the secondary (overturning) circulation across the frontal gradient. As a result, we find many episodes with strong surface fronts that do not have much associated downwelling. Frontogenesis and the associated secondary circulation are further explored during two particular frontal events, both showing strong downwelling of (1) cm s −1 extending down into the pycnocline. A frontogenetic contribution of turbulent vertical momentum mixing to the secondary circulation is identified in the easternmost region during the cold season, when the dynamics are strongly influenced by the intrusion of the salty Northern Current. The background vertical velocity fields observed during the analyzed events indicate other currents in the submesoscale range, including tidal and topographic internal waves.

Capó, Esther↗

QuakeSim 2.0

QuakeSim 2.0 improves understanding of earthquake processes by providing modeling tools and integrating model applications and various heterogeneous data sources within a Web services environment. QuakeSim is a multisource, synergistic, data-intensive environment for modeling the behavior of earthquake faults individually, and as part of complex interacting systems. Remotely sensed geodetic data products may be explored, compared with faults and landscape features, mined by pattern analysis applications, and integrated with models and pattern analysis applications in a rich Web-based and visualization environment. Integration of heterogeneous data products with pattern informatics tools enables efficient development of models. Federated database components and visualization tools allow rapid exploration of large datasets, while pattern informatics enables identification of subtle, but important, features in large data sets. QuakeSim is valuable for earthquake investigations and modeling in its current state, and also serves as a prototype and nucleus for broader systems under development. The framework provides access to physics-based simulation tools that model the earthquake cycle and related crustal deformation. Spaceborne GPS and Inter ferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) data provide information on near-term crustal deformation, while paleoseismic geologic data provide longerterm information on earthquake fault processes. These data sources are integrated into QuakeSim's QuakeTables database system, and are accessible by users or various model applications. UAVSAR repeat pass interferometry data products are added to the QuakeTables database, and are available through a browseable map interface or Representational State Transfer (REST) interfaces. Model applications can retrieve data from Quake Tables, or from third-party GPS velocity data services; alternatively, users can manually input parameters into the models. Pattern analysis of GPS and seismicity data has proved useful for mid-term forecasting of earthquakes, and for detecting subtle changes in crustal deformation. The GPS time series analysis has also proved useful as a data-quality tool, enabling the discovery of station anomalies and data processing and distribution errors. Improved visualization tools enable more efficient data exploration and understanding. Tools provide flexibility to science users for exploring data in new ways through download links, but also facilitate standard, intuitive, and routine uses for science users and end users such as emergency responders.

Donnellan, Andrea↗

The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution

Abstract A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

Vimont, Daniel J.↗

Conditions of the Toll-Like Receptors System of the Human Innate Immunity Cells During the Long-Term Isolation

During long duration missions onboard the International Space Station (ISS), alterations in T cell function and plasma cytokine profiles have been observed. Recent studies involving pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) have established that adaptation of innate immunity to long duration space flight occurs through changes in signal PRRs, Toll-like receptors (TLRs). Despite the fact that fundamental research of PRR molecular biology is far from complete, there are an increasing number of arguments confirming the important role of this system in regulating the initial stages of the adaptive immune response, as well as in the formation of autoimmune and allergic diseases. Long duration isolation is widely used by NASA as an analog for space flight with previous missions including several Antarctic bases, an undersea research station (NEEMO), and other isolation chambers. ‘SIRIUS’ is a multi-compartment pressurized facility at the IMBP in Moscow, Russia, in which subjects will spend 8 months executing tasks similar to those performed by astronauts in space. Prolonged isolation studies like SIRIUS replicate many of the influences expected to occur during long duration spaceflight missions including isolation, stress, confinement, and living in remote conditions. The immune study to be performed on the upcoming SIRIUS mission is being led by Dr. Sergey Ponomarev at the Institute of Biomedical Problems in Moscow, Russia. The NASA JSC Immunology lab will provide analysis of immune cell function, serum cytokines and stress hormones, and salivary cortisol, cytokines, and viruses. This study will be conducted with SIRIUS subjects under the auspices of the parent program. The goal of the study is to evaluate the effect of the 8-month isolation mission on components of human innate immunity at the molecular and cellular level. Successful implementation and completion of this project will provide a unique assortment of new data, significantly expanding the current understanding of the molecular and cellular changes in TLRs during long-term isolation. We hypothesize that mission-like isolation in the Russian NEK facility, consisting of circadian misalignment, isolation, stress, and ‘station lifestyle’, will result in a pattern of immune dysregulation similar to that observed in astronauts onboard ISS. This pattern of alterations can be summarized as phenotypic changes (altered distribution of peripheral cytotoxic, central memory, CD8+ T cell subsets), reductions in T cell function, alterations in plasma cytokine profiles (increased inflammatory and certain chemokines), and reductions in mitogen stimulated cytokine profiles (spans Th1, Th2, Th17). We further hypothesize that these immune changes will correlate with the reactivation of latent herpesviruses (which persists during orbital flight), to be used as measurable adverse clinical manifestation or with other observed symptomology. The SIRIUS-21 mission began in November of 2021 and successfully concluded with the crew emerging in July of 2022. Currently, the logistics of shipping the samples from Russia to the United States is being organized.

Cody L Gutierrez↗

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Entanglement in Gravity and Quantum Field Theory (Final Report)

It is becoming increasingly clear that ideas from quantum information theory, particularly the notion of quantum entanglement, play a fundamental role in some of the deepest aspects of our modern theories of quantum fields and gravity. The aim of this research was to explore the role that quantum entanglement plays in quantum field theories and in the nature of space-time and gravity. Building on a variety of earlier results obtained in these regards at the University of Illinois, we explored the constraints on the dynamical content of quantum field theories that follow from their entanglement properties. Topological field theories are important examples of particularly simple quantum field theories whose patterns of entanglement make connections between high energy physics, condensed matter physics and mathematics. These theories are directly relevant to low energy properties of certain materials. The study of such theories allowed us to investigate ideas that are relevant to quantum information research, such as new notions of entanglement between multiple parties and the quantum properties of interfaces between different phases of such materials. In addition, we employed new results in mathematics which strengthen monotonicity constraints on relative entropy to study their ramifications in quantum field theories, and we used quantum information methods to study the emergence of quantum gravity and string theory in holographic quantum field theories.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models

We evaluate climate model simulations of geopotential height at the largest space-time scales, considering the first Fourier components (in longitude) of long-term climatological means. Quasi-stationary planetary scale waves emerge from this analysis. Variations of these waves are important components of climate change, for example associated with regional drought. Systematic examination of their long-term climatology provides context for understanding their evolution in time. We compare four reanalysis datasets with “historical runs” from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and find general agreement, but we also identify model errors outside the range of both observational uncertainty and the uncertainty implied by interannual variability. Errors in wave phase have possible implications for climate model projections of regional climate and of shifting weather patterns. One model in the set we examine, originally created nearly 20 years before the others, exhibits noticeably greater errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗