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At least 775 records · Page 43

Direct detection of dark baryons naturally suppressed by ℋ-parity

We identify symmetries in a broad class of vectorlike confining dark sectors that forbid the leading electromagnetic moments that would ordinarily mediate dark baryon scattering with the Standard Model. The absence of these operators implies dark baryon dark matter has much smaller cross sections for elastic scattering off nuclei, leading to suppressed direct detection signals. In the confined description, we identify an “ℋ-parity” symmetry that exists in any dark sector with dark quarks transforming under a vectorlike representation of a new confining SU(𝑁 𝑐 ) gauge theory as well as a vectorlike representation of the electroweak group SU⁡(2) 𝐿 . The parity is independent of 𝑁 𝑐 and 𝑁 𝑓 , though it is essential that the dark quarks are neutral under hypercharge. This parity forbids dark hadron electric and magnetic dipole moments, charge radius, and anapole moment, while permitting dimension-7 operators that include polarizability, electroweak loop-induced interactions, and lower-dimensional electromagnetic transition moments between different neutral dark baryon states. We work out an explicit example, 𝑁 𝑐 = 𝑁 𝑓 = 3, that is the most minimal theory with fermionic dark baryons. In this specific model, we use the nonrelativistic quark model to show the magnetic dipole moment and charge radius vanish, while the transition moments are nonzero, consistent with ℋ-parity. We discuss the implications of a suppressed direct detection signal, emphasizing that this broad class of models provide a well-motivated target for future colliders.

composite models↗

Coupled Heat Power Operation of Smart Buildings via Modular Pumped Hydro Storage

In the United States, building sector is responsible for around 40% of total energy consumption and contributes about 40% of carbon emissions since 2012. Within the past several years, various optimization models and control strategies have been studied to improve buildings’ energy efficiency and reduce operational expenses under the constraints of satisfying occupants’ comfort requirements. However, the majority of these studies consider building electricity demand and thermal load being satisfied by unidirectional electricity flow from the power grid or on-site renewable energy generation to electrical and thermal home appliances. Opportunities for leveraging low-grade heat for electricity have largely been overlooked due to impracticality at small scale. In 2016, a modular pumped hydro storage technology was invented in Oak Ridge National Laboratory, named Ground Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES). In GLIDES, employing high-efficiency hydraulic machinery instead of gas compressor/turbine, liquid is pumped to compress gas inside high-pressure vessel creating head on ground level. This unique design eliminates the geographical limitation associated with the existing state-of-the-art energy storage technologies. It is easy to be scaled for building level, community level, and grid level applications. By using this novel hydro-pneumatic storage technology, opportunities for leveraging low-grade heat in building can be economical. In this research, the potential of utilizing low-grade thermal energy to augment electricity generation of GLIDES is investigated. Since GLIDES relies on gas expansion in the discharge process and the gas temperature drops during this non-isothermal process, available thermal energy, e.g., from thermal storage, combined cooling, heat and power system (CCHP), can be utilized by GLIDES to counter the cooling effect of the expansion process and elevate the gas temperature and pressure and boost the roundtrip efficiency. Here, several groups of comparison experiments have been conducted, and the experimental results show that a maximum 12.9% cost saving could be achieved with unlimited heat source for GLIDES, and a moderate 3.8% cost improvement can be expected when operated coordinately with CCHP and thermal energy storage in a smart building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model

The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The dGen model can be used for identifying the sectors, locations, and customers for whom adopting DERs would have a high economic value, for generating forecasts as an input to estimate distribution hosting capacity analysis, integrated resource planning, and load forecasting, and for understanding the economic or policy conditions in which DER adoption becomes viable, and for illustrating sensitivity to market and policy changes such as retail electricity rate structures, net energy metering, and technology costs.

Array↗

Heat Based Power Augmentation for Modular Pumped Hydro Storage in Smart Buildings Operation

In the U.S., building sector is responsible for around 40% of total energy consumption and contributes about 40% of carbon emissions since 2012. Within the past several years, various optimization models and control strategies have been studied to improve buildings energy efficiency and reduce operational expenses under the constraints of satisfying occupants’ comfort requirements. However, the majority of these studies consider building electricity demand and thermal load being satisfied by unidirectional electricity flow from the power grid or on-site renewable energy generation to electrical and thermal home appliances. Opportunities for leveraging low grade heat for electricity have largely been overlooked due to impracticality at small scale. In 2016, a modular pumped hydro storage technology was invented in Oak Ridge National Laboratory, named Ground Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES). In GLIDES, employing high efficiency hydraulic machinery instead of gas compressor/turbine, liquid is pumped to compress gas inside high-pressure vessel creating head on ground-level. This unique design eliminates the geographical limitation associated with existing state of the art energy storage technologies. It is easy to be scaled for building level, community level and grid level applications. Using this novel hydro-pneumatic storage technology, opportunities for leveraging low-grade heat in building can be economical. In this research, the potential of utilizing low-grade thermal energy to augment electricity generation of GLIDES is investigated. Since GLIDES relies on gas expansion in the discharge process and the gas temperature drops during this non-isothermal process, available thermal energy, e.g. from thermal storage, Combined Cooling, Heat and Power system (CCHP), can be utilized by GLIDES to counter the cooling effect of the expansion process and elevate the gas temperature and pressure and boost the roundtrip efficiency. Several groups of comparison experiments have been conducted and the experimental results show that a maximum 12.9% cost saving could be achieved with unlimited heat source for GLIDES, and a moderate 3.8% cost improvement can be expected when operated coordinately with CCHP and thermal energy storage in a smart building.

Chen, Yang↗

First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis

The First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis (aka the STEP 1 Project or the Project) aimed to (1) developed a brand-new web tool that could provide decision support through free, rapid techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter solar+storage systems for industrial process heat and (2) conduct high-level analyses of the cost-competitiveness of the same systems across the US in key sectors. The STEP 1 web tool collects key location, land availability, thermal load profile, proccess heat temperature and media, and other key parameters through an easy-to-use user interface (UI). The UI was designed to meet the user at their level of understanding by minimizing the number of required inputs as much as possible while including options for more nuanced inputs if the user desires. STEP 1 advises users on which solar thermal tehcnologies that could fit their needs based on the inputs provided (namely process media and temperature). The tool can model a wide range of solar thermal technologies including flat plate collectors, evacuated tubes, parabolic troughs, linear Fresnel, and molten salt towers all with corresponding thermal energy storage (TES) - solar PV with resistive heating and TES is also included. Once the parameters are collected, a nominal thermal energy production profile for the facility's location is generated using NREL's System Advisory Model (SAM) and then passed to a modified version of NREL's REopt platform to optimize the size (capacity) and dispatch of the solar+storage system to minimize lifecycle costs subject to energy balance, fuel and electricity rates, emission reductions goals, and other constraints. This entire process takes less than 20 minutes, is completely free, requires zero coding skills, and provides the user with a high-level assessment on the techno-economic feasability of deploying solar+storage systems for their energy needs. In addition to the development of the STEP 1 web tool, the project completed two complementary analyses focused on leveraging the backend code of STEP 1, public industrial facility locations and fuel consumption data, and key sector information to assess the economic opportunity of reducing fuel costs at various levels of capacity factor around the US. Both analyses found that there are key markets, locations, industrial sectors (namely food and beverage), and degrees of offset where solar thermal technologies could be cost-effectively deployed, highlighting a key market entry point for these technologies, and assessing deployment potential. In summary, the STEP 1 project improved the opportunities for solar+storage systems to expand into the industrial process heat market through breaking down barriers to assessing these technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Circular economy pathways for decarbonizing aluminum and steel automotive body sheet components in the United States

Decarbonizing vehicle production is essential to reducing automotive sector emissions. This study quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aluminum and steel auto-body sheet components produced in the US. It evaluates the effectiveness of circular economy (CE) strategies (greater closed-loop recycling of pre-consumer scrap, post-consumer scrap, and increased manufacturing yields) to reduce supply chain emissions across different process technology and electricity grid decarbonization pathways. We combine dynamic material flow analysis (2025–2050) with cradle-to-gate life-cycle modeling to assess production emissions and the potential reductions associated with the CE strategies under frozen, moderate, and aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenarios. Current emissions intensities are estimated at approximately 12.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of aluminum and 4.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of steel sheet embedded in the vehicle. Under the frozen decarbonization scenario and current levels of circularity, annual emissions attributable to US aluminum and steel auto-body sheet supply chains could rise by 54 % and 18 % respectively by 2050. Rapid deployment of the CE strategies can cut these annual emissions in 2050 by 52 % for aluminum and 44 % for steel. However, scrap quality constraints lead to saturation points, limiting these benefits unless addressed. Aggressive deployment of low-carbon production technologies and a low-carbon grid reduces the relative benefit of implementing the CE strategies; however, even under the aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenario, the CE strategies reduce annual emissions by a further 23 %-54 % by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need to integrate CE strategies into the sheet metal supply chain to support decarbonization efforts and help meet climate targets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tracking and Positioning System for Floating Solar (CRADA Abstract)

The project goal is to develop a floating solar photovoltaics (FPV) tracking & position system that: (1) increases annual energy production of FPV projects by >10%, (2) lowers levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for FPV by >10%, and (3) leverages U.S. contract supply chain & manufacturing. The outcome of the project will be a certified tracking product that has undergone extensive field testing and is ready for commercial sales. The primary objectives for each budget period are: • BP1: Define product requirements, develop initial controls architecture and design other sub-components, complete small-scale pilot testing, install a larger-scale pilot, secure sites for commercial pilots, and develop the beta-version of a user portal. • BP2: complete control system and sub-component design, successful demonstration and testing at a commercial pilot, certification & bankability, finalize user portal, and complete various commercialization activities related to supply chain, customer acquisition, and sales. PNNL will provide support during both project phases for prototype development and testing of the controls architecture, software, and hardware components of the tracking and positioning system. PNNL will provide support during both project phases for prototype development and testing of the controls architecture, software, and hardware components of the tracking and positioning system. This effort represents PNNL’s first opportunity to support the floating solar photovoltaics (FPV) industry with capabilities, facilities, and personnel developed to contribute to the marine energy (e.g., wave and tidal energy) sector. This portfolio expansion leverages internal and DOE EERE investments and the growing visibility of PNNL-Sequim’s Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) and our marine research capabilities, in general. The development of effective and low-cost FPV platforms is a potential way to increase the nation’s set of tools for providing emission-free electricity without utilizing valuable terrestrial resources. Successful commercialization of such a project may lead to economic benefits through job creation, supply chain creation, and access to a cheaper source of electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Tierra del Fuego Case Study Capacity Expansion Analysis

This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dragonstone Strategy – State of Cybersecurity in the Oil & Natural Gas Sector

The oil & natural gas (ONG) system touches every corner of the nation and increased communications & control capabilities have not only allowed for greater efficiency of system operation, but have also created a massive target for adversaries to launch cyber-attacks. Like any other heavy industrial process, the ONG system relies on a complex system of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) devices. The current state of cyber-preparedness across the ONG industry varies from organization to organization. Among the most common challenges that ONG companies face are remote locations, longlived field assets, and lacking capabilities to find and track malware on their systems. ONG companies tend to be concerned with lack of cyber-awareness from employees, risk stemming from remote access for operations & maintenance, and software vulnerabilities within third-party equipment. Various industry and government organizations are performing research and development activities to address some of these challenges, but in many cases industry stakeholders are not aware of solutions that already exist. It is clear that a need exists for a coherent, comprehensive, multi-layered strategy for assuring the security and resilience of the nation's pipeline infrastructure against cyber threats. For a variety of reasons, the general consensus from stakeholders interviewed by LLNL is that the state of cyber-security within the electric grid is currently outpacing its ONG cousin. Existing strategies for the resilience and cyber-security of the electric grid can and should be leveraged to provide immediate benefits to the ONG system. In LLNL’s view, there are two key factors currently limiting the development of necessary cyber-practices within the ONG industry: The sheer number of differing regulatory bodies and trade groups offering both standards and best-practice recommendations for ONG cyber-security makes it difficult to create a comprehensive, directed, and coherent strategy that is applicable to all players within the ONG industry. The ONG industry is unaware of potentially useful technologies that have been developed for ensuring cyber-security of other infrastructure systems, such as the electric grid. Leveraging these technologies—and the science and engineering behind them—can provide some low-hanging fruit that can greatly improve cyber-security in the ONG industry without significant investments in terms of time and money. In the months following this report, LLNL will continue to perform outreach to key oil & gas industry stakeholders in a continual effort to identify the most pressing cyber-resilience issues in the industry. This outreach will be supplemented with LLNL’s threat intelligence capabilities to begin painting a clearer picture of the overall threat landscape faced by this sector. This assessment will be threat-informed and while the strategy itself will not be classified we will leverage intelligence analysis and adversary capabilities to identify gaps in current cybersecurity practices for oil & gas pipeline systems. Recommended efforts will be compiled into a cyber-resilience roadmap for the oil & gas pipeline sector, in which LLNL will highlight priority activities to immediately improve the state of cyber-resilience in the industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage↗

Chiral magnetic effect reveals the topology of gauge fields in heavy-ion collisions

The topological structure of vacuum is the cornerstone of non-Abelian gauge theories describing strong and electroweak interactions within the standard model of particle physics. However, transitions between different topological sectors of the vacuum (believed to be at the origin of the baryon asymmetry of the Universe) have never been observed directly. Additionally, an experimental observation of such transitions in quantum chromodynamics (QCD) has become possible in heavy-ion collisions, where the chiral magnetic effect converts the chiral asymmetry (generated by topological transitions in hot QCD matter) into an electric current, under the presence of the magnetic field produced by the colliding ions. The Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider programme on heavy-ion collisions such as the zirconium-zirconium and ruthenium-ruthenium isobars thus has the potential to uncover the topological structure of vacuum in a laboratory experiment. This discovery would have far-reaching implications for the understanding of QCD, the origin of the baryon asymmetry in the present-day Universe, and other areas, including condensed matter physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Paintable Heat-Reflective Coatings for Low-Cost Energy Efficient Windows

The major objective of this effort is to manufacture a paintable coating to inexpensively retrofit energy-inefficient windows with a heat-reflective, visibly transparent film. This coating will drastically reduce cooling costs for millions of homes and buildings and lower the Nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. Widespread implementation could reduce the national consumption of electricity for cooling by billions of kWh, saving billions of dollars per year. This improved energy efficiency would decrease CO2 emissions by billions kg per year, the equivalent to removing millions of cars from the road. Although near-IR reflective adhesive films are commercially available products and have demonstrated significant energy efficiency enhancement, high upfront costs largely deter potential consumers across all sectors. The technology developed under this award was proposed to disrupt the building envelope market, by providing an inexpensive coating that can be directly applied by consumers to improve the energy efficiency of virtually all window types. The proof of concept for a paintable, DIY applicable, visibly transparent, and infrared reflective coating was achieved, laying the foundation for future technology development in this area.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

International Actions to Reduce Miscellaneous Electrical Loads Energy Consumption

Miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) research dates back over 30 years, with the earliest publications about MELs originating in the late 1980s. As the number and types of MELs have grown during the intervening decades, so has the body of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and regulations put in place to control what is now a significant energy end use in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, these MEPS are designed to control off-mode, standby, and connected standby power consumption to prevent energy waste. Research on MELs focuses a great deal on analyzing the characteristics of MELs, approaches for measuring their consumption, and at a higher level what constitutes a MEL. Despite these advances, there have been few comparisons of different approaches to curtail MELs energy consumption across regulatory bodies of MELs—both between and within countries—to identify similarities, gaps, and opportunities for crafting common language and standards. This study provides an analysis of international MELs-related voluntary and mandatory MEPSs across 12 economies to address this gap. The analysis demonstrates that although economies may share the commitment to regulate the energy consumption of MELs, there still is no common language for framing MELs, nor is there a shared understanding for harmonizing MEPS for MELs.

Butzbaugh, Josh↗

Achieving American Leadership in Cybersecurity and Digital Components Factsheet

The Biden Administration’s efforts to meet 100% clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 has created opportunities to rebuild American supply chains create new jobs, strengthen community engagement, and spur U.S. economic growth. DOE’s strategy for success in the transition to a clean energy economy hinges on building and maintaining technology supply chains that are advanced, secure, and resilient to cyber threats. As the energy sector grows increasingly globalized, complex, and digitized, the supply chain for digital components of energy systems – including software, virtual platforms and services, and data – is facing greater threats. Nearly all digital components of U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable to cyber supply chain instability, stemming from a variety of causes and shared among a broad set of interdependent stakeholders. Overall, supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.

CCE↗

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact Analysis of Transitioning to Heat Pump Rooftop Units for the U.S. Commercial Building Stock: Preprint

20% of the U.S. commercial building sector's energy usage is from on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating. Decarbonization will require electrification of these systems to meet climate goals, often by transitioning to heat pumps. Rooftop units (RTU) are the most prominent commercial building HVAC system type and should therefore be prioritized for decarbonization solutions. However, there is limited understanding of the impact on emissions that considers regional electricity generation methods, as well as the impact of other heat pump intricacies such as the effects of temperature on capacity/efficiency, defrost operation, realistic sizing methodologies, and supplementary heating. This study explores the effects of transitioning all conventional RTUs to high-performance heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock. The analysis is performed using ComStock, DOE's calibrated model of the U.S. commercial building stock developed by NREL. Results show 9% and 17% reductions in stock aggregate energy consumption and GHG emissions, respectively. Furthermore, average heat pump operational details are presented by state. This analysis will help inform the transition to heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock.

commercial building electrification↗