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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cytochrome Nanowire XRD

Microbial metabolism plays an important role in the global cycling of carbon, nutrients, and metals. Recent discovery of microorganisms sharing energy using direct electrical connections might represent a prominent strategy by which anaerobic microorganisms interact with the diversity of environments. The purpose of the proposed research is to apply these newly developed principles of electron exchange in microbial communities to the study of biogeochemical cycling in climate and subsurface systems. Previous studies revealed that soil bacteria Geobacter sulfurreducens produce conductive pili nanofilaments that facilitate long-range electron transport to extracellular electron acceptors and other cells. This discovery has already transformed our understanding of the function of microbial communities in diverse environments, making basic contributions to microbial ecology and helping to improve practical applications such as increasing current output of microbial fuel cells and enhancing the conversion of organic waste to methane. Microbial electron exchange via pili may also contribute to methane production in terrestrial environments that are major sources of atmospheric methane. However, the mechanism of electron transport through pili is not well understood. Initial studies have suggested that pili exhibit metallic-like conductivity similar to conducting polymer polyaniline. However, these studies were limited to electrical measurements. X-ray diffraction studies have suggested that aromatic amino acids tyrosine and phenylalanine are closely packed in pili. But these studies used homology modeling to predict the pilus assembly and information about the number of monomers in each pilus assembly unit and their organization are still lacking. The central hypothesis of this proposal is aromatics in pili enable intermolecular electron delocalization due to pi-stacking that can give rise to metallic-like conductivity. By analyzing pili structure using infrared scattering-scanning near field optical microscope (IR s-SNOM) and combining with solution NMR, Focused Ion Beam (FIB and computational capabilities, this work will provide comprehensive understanding of the conduction mechanism from a structure-function perspective. The specific aims are: 1) With infrared scattering scanning near field optical microscope (IR s-SNOM), image the organization and density of pilin monomers and pH-induced conformational changes in a pilus filament. 2) With solution NMR, resolve pH-induced structural changes in the pilin monomer. 3) Using Focused Ion Beam (FIB), draw electrodes on single pili to measure their conductivity. 4) With computational modeling using the NWChem, simulate the effect of environment on the electronic properties of pili as a function of pH. The proposed work will gain the nanoscale insight into the structure of the pili, as the basis for understanding interspecies electrical communications. The improved understanding will be harnessed to accelerate bioenergy production and bioremediation using pili as well as for predictive modeling of carbon cycling in diverse environments to reach the central goals of DOE-BER to develop sustainable energy sources, regulate the contaminants in the subsurface and understand the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on biosphere. The proposed studies will provide design principles for engineering of electrical interactions among these communities by manipulating the amino acid composition of pili. Moreover, these studies will identify the forces that maintain the function of these communities in the face of environmental perturbation. Therefore, these studies will help to address the need "to incorporate process understanding of biogeochemical cycling into a scalable hierarchy of predictive capabilities" specified in EMSL's Science Themes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifts in hydropower operation to balance wind and solar will modify effects on aquatic biota

To avoid negative consequences to freshwater biota from climate change, society must complete the transition from fossil to renewable electricity sources. However, temporal patterns in hydropower generation (and flow releases that affect aquatic biota) may change with increased wind and solar penetration. We used power cost modeling to characterize current and future within-day and seasonal patterns in hydropower generation across the Eastern Interconnection in a wet and a dry year. Compared to the baseline, future hydropower generation across the grid decreased during the day and increased before dawn and after dusk. At a project level, such a pattern would suggest 'double peaking' operation (up- and down-ramping before dawn and after dusk, with lower releases midday). Variation in generation was higher in wet years than dry years, foreshadowing possible flow constraints on hydropower flexibility. At the grid scale, projected ramping rates were higher in all seasons. A review of the ecological literature suggests that these changes would shift the timing of invertebrate drift and elevate the risk of nest scouring during up-ramping and the risk of stranding or dewatering during down ramping. Thermal conditions may be moderated by increased ramping. Strategies for adapting to future shifts in the renewable portfolio range from re-regulation in reservoir cascades to providing flow refuge (structures and vegetation) below individual projects. Coordinated basin-scale operation can distribute peaking operation to maintain grid support while restricting local ramping at critical ecological times. In addition, research to design hybrid renewable systems that add battery storage is needed to understand how we can mitigate future risks to aquatic communities while promoting the use of renewable energy. This study, which is among the first to examine ecological side-effects of the shift to renewable energy in freshwater ecosystems, lays out a path toward understanding and navigating changes to flow regimes under the energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Battery-powered bargains? Assessing electric vehicle resale value in the United States

Abstract The resale market will play a critical role in expanding plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption to middle- and lower-income households. Understanding PEV depreciation trends in comparison to those of conventional gasoline vehicles (CVs) is critical for assessing PEV affordability and informing relevant policy, such as subsidies for used PEVs. We deliver comprehensive, high-resolution estimates of value retention rates at the make-model level in the United States for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and CVs using a database of 9 million used cars listed online between 2016 and 2022. While BEVs and PHEVs have depreciated at faster rates than CVs, this trend is changing, with newer model year BEVs and those with larger ranges have significantly higher retention rates than older model years with smaller ranges. Tesla BEVs are a notable exception following the opposite trend, with earlier model years holding their value better than newer model years. Subsidized BEVs in the new market are associated with lower prices for the same model in the resale market, with the $7500 federal subsidy translating to a 3% lower resale price on average. Finally, disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have affected affordability across all vehicles, with mean listing prices rising 37% and 39% for CVs and BEVs, respectively, from January 2020 to March 2022 in inflation-adjusted 2019 dollars.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proactive and Reactive Thermal Comfort Behaviors

The expansion of renewable electricity generation, growing demands due to electrification, greater prevalence of working from home, and increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, will place new demands on the electric supply and distribution grid. Broader adoption of demand response programs (DRPs) for the residential sector may help meet these challenges; however, experience shows that occupant overrides in DRPs compromises their effectiveness. There is a lack of formal understanding of how discomfort, routines, and other motivations affect DRP overrides and other related human building interactions (HBI). This paper reports preliminary findings from a study of 20 households in Colorado and Massachusetts, US over three months. Participants responded to ecological momentary assessments (EMA) triggered by thermostat interactions and at random times throughout the day. EMAs included Likert-scale questions of thermal preference, preference intensity, and changes to 7 different activity types that could affect thermal comfort, and an opened ended question about motivations of such actions. Twelve tags were developed to categorize motivation responses and analyzed statistically to identify associations between motivations, preferences, and HBI actions. Reactions to changes in the thermal environment were the most frequently observed motivation (118 of 220 responses). On the other hand, almost half (47%) responses were at least partially motivated by non-thermal factors, suggesting limited utility for occupant behavior models founded solely on thermal comfort. Changes in activity level and clothing were less likely to be reported when EMAs were triggered by thermostat interactions, while fan interactions were more likely. Windows, shades, and portable heater interactions had no significant dependence on how the EMA was triggered. These results suggest that better understanding of motivations for HBI may improve effectiveness of demand response programs.

Pathak, Maharshi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bacterial response to spatial gradients of algal-derived nutrients in a porous microplate

Abstract Photosynthetic microalgae are responsible for 50% of the global atmospheric CO2 fixation into organic matter and hold potential as a renewable bioenergy source. Their metabolic interactions with the surrounding microbial community (the algal microbiome) play critical roles in carbon cycling, but due to methodological limitations, it has been challenging to examine how community development is influenced by spatial proximity to their algal host. Here we introduce a copolymer-based porous microplate to co-culture algae and bacteria, where metabolites are constantly exchanged between the microorganisms while maintaining physical separation. In the microplate, we found that the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum accumulated to cell abundances ~20 fold higher than under normal batch conditions due to constant replenishment of nutrients through the porous structure. We also demonstrate that algal-associated bacteria, both single isolates and complex communities, responded to inorganic nutrients away from their host as well as organic nutrients originating from the algae in a spatially predictable manner. These experimental findings coupled with a mathematical model suggest that host proximity and algal culture growth phase impact bacterial community development in a taxon-specific manner through organic and inorganic nutrient availability. Our novel system presents a useful tool to investigate universal metabolic interactions between microbes in aquatic ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review of spatial Markov models for predicting pre-asymptotic and anomalous transport in porous and fractured media

Heterogeneity across a broad range of scales in geologic porous media often manifests in observations of non-Fickian or anomalous transport. While traditional anomalous transport models can successfully make predictions in certain geological systems, increasing evidence suggests that assumptions relating to independent and identically distributed increments constrain where and when they can be reliably applied. A relatively novel model, the Spatial Markov model (SMM), relaxes the assumption of independence. The SMM belongs to the family of correlated continuous time random walks and has shown promise across a wide range of transport problems relevant to natural porous media. It has been successfully used to model conservative as well as more recently reactive transport in highly complex flows ranging from pore scales to much larger scales of interest in geology and subsurface hydrology. In this review paper we summarize its original development and provide a comprehensive review of its advances and applications as well as lay out a vision for its future development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life history strategies among soil bacteria—dichotomy for few, continuum for many

Abstract Study of life history strategies may help predict the performance of microorganisms in nature by organizing the complexity of microbial communities into groups of organisms with similar strategies. Here, we tested the extent that one common application of life history theory, the copiotroph-oligotroph framework, could predict the relative population growth rate of bacterial taxa in soils from four different ecosystems. We measured the change of in situ relative growth rate to added glucose and ammonium using both 18O–H2O and 13C quantitative stable isotope probing to test whether bacterial taxa sorted into copiotrophic and oligotrophic groups. We saw considerable overlap in nutrient responses across most bacteria regardless of phyla, with many taxa growing slowly and few taxa that grew quickly. To define plausible life history boundaries based on in situ relative growth rates, we applied Gaussian mixture models to organisms’ joint 18O–13C signatures and found that across experimental replicates, few taxa could consistently be assigned as copiotrophs, despite their potential for fast growth. When life history classifications were assigned based on average relative growth rate at varying taxonomic levels, finer resolutions (e.g., genus level) were significantly more effective in capturing changes in nutrient response than broad taxonomic resolution (e.g., phylum level). Our results demonstrate the difficulty in generalizing bacterial life history strategies to broad lineages, and even to single organisms across a range of soils and experimental conditions. We conclude that there is a continued need for the direct measurement of microbial communities in soil to advance ecologically realistic frameworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advancing river corridor science beyond disciplinary boundaries with an inductive approach to catalyse hypothesis generation

Abstract A unified conceptual framework for river corridors requires synthesis of diverse site‐, method‐ and discipline‐specific findings. The river research community has developed a substantial body of observations and process‐specific interpretations, but we are still lacking a comprehensive model to distill this knowledge into fundamental transferable concepts. We confront the challenge of how a discipline classically organized around the deductive model of systematically collecting of site‐, scale‐, and mechanism‐specific observations begins the process of synthesis. Machine learning is particularly well‐suited to inductive generation of hypotheses. In this study, we prototype an inductive approach to holistic synthesis of river corridor observations, using support vector machine regression to identify potential couplings or feedbacks that would not necessarily arise from classical approaches. This approach generated 672 relationships linking a suite of 157 variables each measured at 62 locations in a fifth order river network. Eighty four percent of these relationships have not been previously investigated, and representing potential (hypothetical) process connections. We document relationships consistent with current understanding including hydrologic exchange processes, microbial ecology, and the River Continuum Concept, supporting that the approach can identify meaningful relationships in the data. Moreover, we highlight examples of two novel research questions that stem from interpretation of inductively‐generated relationships. This study demonstrates the implementation of machine learning to sieve complex data sets and identify a small set of candidate relationships that warrant further study, including data types not commonly measured together. This structured approach complements traditional modes of inquiry, which are often limited by disciplinary perspectives and favour the careful pursuit of parsimony. Finally, we emphasize that this approach should be viewed as a complement to, rather than in place of, more traditional, deductive approaches to scientific discovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting distribution of malaria vector larval habitats in Ethiopia by integrating distributed hydrologic modeling with remotely sensed data

Abstract Larval source management has gained renewed interest as a malaria control strategy in Africa but the widespread and transient nature of larval breeding sites poses a challenge to its implementation. To address this problem, we propose combining an integrated high resolution (50 m) distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed data to simulate potential malaria vector aquatic habitats. The novelty of our approach lies in its consideration of irrigation practices and its ability to resolve complex ponding processes that contribute to potential larval habitats. The simulation was performed for the year of 2018 using ParFlow-Common Land Model (CLM) in a sugarcane plantation in the Oromia region, Ethiopia to examine the effects of rainfall and irrigation. The model was calibrated using field observations of larval habitats to successfully predict ponding at all surveyed locations from the validation dataset. Results show that without irrigation, at least half of the area inside the farms had a 40% probability of potential larval habitat occurrence. With irrigation, the probability increased to 56%. Irrigation dampened the seasonality of the potential larval habitats such that the peak larval habitat occurrence window during the rainy season was extended into the dry season. Furthermore, the stability of the habitats was prolonged, with a significant shift from semi-permanent to permanent habitats. Our study provides a hydrological perspective on the impact of environmental modification on malaria vector ecology, which can potentially inform malaria control strategies through better water management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approximation of ice phenology of Maine lakes using Aqua MODIS surface temperature data

Studies of lake ice phenology have historically relied on limited in situ data. Relatively few observations exist for ice out and fewer still for ice in, both of which are necessary to determine the temporal extent of ice cover. Satellite data provide an opportunity to better document patterns of ice phenology across landscapes and relate them to the climatological drivers behind changing ice phenology. We developed a model, the Cumulative Sum Method (CSM), that uses daytime and nighttime surface temperature observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Earth-observing Aqua satellite to approximate ice in (the onset of ice cover) and ice out from training datasets of 13 and 58 Maine lakes, respectively, during the 2002/2003 through 2017/2018 ice seasons. Ice in was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative negative degrees following the first day of the season below 0°C. Ice out was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative positive degrees following the first day of the year above 0°C. The comparison of observed and remotely sensed ice-in dates showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.8 days. Ice-out approximations had a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and an MAE of 8.8 days. Lakes smaller in surface area and nearer the Atlantic coast had the greatest error in approximation. Application of the CSM to 20 additional lakes in Maine produced a comparable ice-out MAE of 8.9 days. Ice-out model performance was weaker for the warmest years; there was a larger MAE of 12.0 days when the model was applied to the years 2019–2023 for the original 58 lakes. The development of this model, which utilizes daily satellite data, demonstrates the promise of remote sensing for quantifying ice phenology over short, temporal scales, and wider geographic regions than can be observed in situ, and allows exploration of the influence of surface temperature patterns on the process and timing of ice in and ice out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeled Surface-Atmosphere Fluxes From Paired Sites in the Upper Great Lakes Region Using Neural Networks

The eddy covariance (EC) method is one of the most widely used approaches to quantify surface-atmosphere fluxes. However, scaling up from a single EC tower to the landscape remains an open challenge. To address this, we used 63 site years of data to examine simulated annual and growing season sums of carbon fluxes from three paired land-cover type sites of corn, restored-prairie, and switchgrass ecosystems. This was also done across the landscape by modeling fluxes using different land-cover type input data. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to model net ecosystem exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and gross primary production (GPP) at one paired site using environmental observations from the second site only. With a mean spatial separation of 11 km between paired sites, we were able to model annual sums of NEE, R eco , and GPP with uncertainties of 20%, 22%, and 8%, respectively, relative to observation sums. When considering the growing season only, model uncertainties were 17%, 22%, and 9%, respectively for the three flux terms. We also show that ANN models can estimate sums of R eco and GPP fluxes without needing the constraint of similar land-cover-type, with annual uncertainties of 12% and 10%. These results provide new insights to scaling up observations from one EC site beyond the footprint of the EC tower to multiple land-cover types across the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Editorial: Hydrology, ecology, and nutrient biogeochemistry at the terrestrial-aquatic interface

Terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAI) play important roles in mediating the exchange of water and chemicals between land, surface and subsurface water systems, which is tightly coupled with biogeochemical transformations that influence water quality and ecosystem health (Harvey and Gooseff, 2015; Harvey et al., 2019). Understanding and predicting the interactions between the hydrologic, ecologic, and biogeochemical processes at those interfaces is crucial for the sustainable management of water resources and promotion of healthy ecosystems under different environmental stresses and disturbances, including climate change, human activities, and more frequent occurrence of extreme events. Both process-based and data-driven approaches have emerged to address critical challenges at TAIs as integral parts of the Earth system (e.g., Ward and Packman, 2019; Chen et al., 2021; Dwivedi et al., 2022). In this Research Topic, we sought research that advances the understanding of coupled hydrologic, ecologic, and biogeochemical processes along various TAIs from the summit to sea, e.g., river corridors and coastal TAI systems. We invited observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven research that aims to understand hydro-biogeochemical processes such as the redox dynamics and biogeochemical transformations of carbon, nutrients, and metals occurring at the TAIs and address their heterogeneity and scaling challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗