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At least 775 records · Page 43

LandScan HD: a high-resolution gridded ambient population methodology for the world

Unwarned population distributions accounting for routine human activities are needed to address many global human security challenges, including disasters, conflict, and infrastructure demand. LandScan High Definition (LSHD) supports this need through gridded ambient population estimates that measure average human presence between daytime and nighttime at a high spatial resolution of 3 arcseconds (approximately 90 m). Although LSHD has traditionally been produced on a country-specific basis, advances in global foundational data and computational resources now enable scaling its methodology to the world. Combining aspects of top-down and bottom-up gridded population methods, LSHD allocates subnational population totals from authoritative statistics to built-up areas based on occupancy estimates for multiple facility types (e.g., residential, commercial) and then reaggregates these estimates to a global population grid. We scale this approach by organizing the LSHD data stack into a 1° resolution tileset of vector analytic features, enabling an efficient and repeatable workflow for all countries worldwide. Examining the Philippines as an output of the global LSHD baseline dataset, we contrast unwarned and residential (WorldPop) population distributions by (1) exploring a practical application of flood risk assessment and (2) evaluating their congruence with outcomes of collective human activities (subnational CO 2 emissions). Finally, we discuss plans to address current LSHD limitations through data/modeling and uncertainty quantification improvements and provide outlook for workflow automation and extending the model to social, demographic and economic population characteristics.

Building morphology↗

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distributed Mafic Rock Resources for Carbon Mineralization in Arizona

Ex-situ carbon mineralization is a process by which CO2 is reacted with alkaline silicate minerals and rocks to produce stable carbonate materials, which can be used for other industrial processes. Arizona, U.S.A., hosts abundant surficial mafic rocks in three young volcanic fields, Geronimo-San Bernardino, San Francisco, and Springerville, and other distributed locations throughout the state. We created a Mafic Rock Resource Inventory (MRRI) that categorizes geochemical, physical, and textural characteristics of a diverse suite of surficial mafic rock samples and provide a benchmark reaction dataset parameterizing the temperature, pressure, and pH conditions best suited ex-situ mineralization in different rock types. MRRI data is publicly available online via a map-viewer. We establish two reaction condition sets, varied in temperature, pressure, and pH, where crystal-rich and glassy rocks reach maximum reaction extent and different carbonate phases are formed. Systematic ex-situ mineralization experiments on 21 diverse rock types show trends in geochemical, mineralogical, and reactivity behavior and establish maximum effective capture capacity. From this, scoria cones in three Arizona volcanic fields have a ~62 Gt effective CO₂ storage capacity with one of the fields having a ~42 Gt storage capacity in lava flows. Reactivity results have applications to alkaline mafic rock resources exposed globally, including producing additional effective storage capacity estimates and scaled commercialization of mafic rock ex-situ mineralization, should reaction extents be improved through advances in mineralization techniques. MRRI data were used to create a Direct Air Capture to Mineralization (DACM) systems model, technoeconomic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. These documents are presented as three appendices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Planetary Boundary-Layer Height (PBLHT) Value-Added Product: Remote-Sensing Retrievals

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is fundamental to numerous atmospheric processes, including aerosol mixing and transport, cloud evolution, and precipitation formation. A critical parameter in these studies is the PBL height (PBLHT). This vertical depth is essential for characterizing PBL structures in numerical simulations and serves as a primary metric for estimating flux exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Radiosonde (SONDE) observations provide high-vertical-resolution measurements of temperature and moisture profiles and are widely used to estimate PBLHT (Liu and Liang 2010, Seidel et al. 2010). The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s PBLHT value-added product (VAP) for radiosonde measurements, known as PBLHTSONDE, applies three commonly used methods—the Heffter (1980) method, the Liu and Liang (2010) method, and the bulk Richardson number approach (Seibert et al. 2000)—to derive PBLHT. The PBLHTSONDE VAP operates routinely at ARM observatories and mobile facilities, with data available from the ARM Data Center shortly after sounding observations are collected (Sivaraman et al. 2013). However, radiosonde observations are limited by their low temporal resolution. Most stations launch soundings only twice daily, which constrains the ability to investigate and characterize the temporal evolution of the PBL using radiosonde data alone. The use of continuous remote-sensing observations provides high temporal resolution of PBLHT estimates. These observations include aerosol lidars (Dang et al. 2019, Su et al. 2020), Doppler lidar (DL; Tucker et al. 2009, Krishnamurthy et al. 2021), and water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers (Turner et al. 2014). These observations provide valuable data on the PBL’s thermodynamic properties (e.g., water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers), dynamic properties (e.g., DL), and distribution of tracer substances (e.g., aerosol lidars), all of which can be used to estimate PBLHT. ARM developed PBLHT estimates from the micropulse lidar (MPL; PBLHTMPL), Doppler lidar (PBLHTDL), and combined Raman lidar (RL)/atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profiles (PBLHTTHERMO). Each estimate captures different physical characteristics of the boundary layer—aerosol tracers, vertical velocity turbulence, and thermodynamic structure—and exhibits distinct strengths and limitations depending on the PBL regime and time of day. In addition, the ARM ceilometer (CEIL) provides three potential PBLHT candidates derived from the vendor's built-in algorithm. Building on these individual retrievals, ARM developed the PBLHTBEML VAP, which combines the four remote-sensing-based estimates with ancillary meteorological variables using the machine learning approach of Zhang et al. (2025) to produce a best-estimate PBLHT at 10-minute resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Looking at the bigger picture: Identifying the photoproducts of pyruvic acid at 193 nm

Here, photodissociation of pyruvic acid (PA) was studied in the gas-phase at 193 nm using two complementary techniques. The time-sliced velocity map imaging arrangement was used to determine kinetic energy release distributions of fragments and estimate dissociation timescales. The multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometer setup was used to identify and quantify photoproducts, including isomers and free radicals, by their mass-to-charge ratios, photoionization spectra, and kinetic time profiles. Using these two techniques, it is possible to observe the major dissociation products of PA photodissociation: CO 2 , CO, H, OH, HCO, CH 2 CO, CH 3 CO, and CH 3 . Acetaldehyde and vinyl alcohol are minor primary photoproducts at 193 nm, but products that are known to arise from their unimolecular dissociation, such as HCO, H 2 CO, and CH 4 , are identified and quantified. A multivariate analysis that takes into account the yields of the observed products and assumes a set of feasible primary dissociation reactions provides a reasonable description of the photoinitiated chemistry of PA despite the necessary simplifications caused by the complexity of the dissociation. These experiments offer the first comprehensive description of the dissociation pathways of PA initiated on the S 3 excited state. Most of the observed products and yields are rationalized on the basis of three reaction mechanisms: (i) decarboxylation terminating in CO 2 + other primary products (~50%); (ii) Norrish type I dissociation typical of carbonyls (~30%); and (iii) O—H and C—H bond fission reactions generating the H atom (~10%). The analysis shows that most of the dissociation reactions create more than two products. This observation is not surprising considering the high excitation energy (~51 800 cm –1 ) and fairly low energy required for dissociation of PA. We find that two-body fragmentation processes yielding CO 2 are minor, and the expected, unstable primary co-fragment, methylhydroxycarbene, is not observed because it probably undergoes fast secondary dissociation and/or isomerization. Norrish type I dissociation pathways generate OH and only small yields of CH 3 CO and HOCO, which have low dissociation energies and further decompose via three-body fragmentation processes. Experiments with d 1 -PA (CH 3 COCOOD) support the interpretations. The dissociation on S 3 is fast, as indicated by the products’ recoil angular anisotropy, but the roles of internal conversion and intersystem crossing to lower states are yet to be determined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Emissions Assessment Model (GLEAM) Model Documentation

The Greenhouse gas Life cycle Emissions Assessment Model (GLEAM) estimates life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from future scenarios of electricity generation considering a wide range of generation technologies. Building on the National Laboratory of the Rockies longstanding effort to quantify life cycle emissions by electricity generation technology under the LCA Harmonization Project, GLEAM streamlines the process of estimating cumulative greenhouse gas emissions on a life cycle basis. Given a set of inputs regarding annual installed and decommissioned generation capacity, as well as generation, GLEAM estimates the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by year. The model also offers optional modules to decompose carbon dioxide equivalent emissions into constituent greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) as well as estimate hydrogen leakage from relevant technologies. The results from GLEAM can be used to inform future electricity planning scenarios as well as investment or regulatory decisions.

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Energy impact of human health and wellness lighting recommendations for office and classroom applications

The goal of this investigation was to evaluate potential energy impacts of circadian lighting design recommendations gaining attention in a variety of common applications such as offices and classrooms. The renewed focus on health along with advances in SSL technology capabilities has underscored that there is still much to learn regarding the relationship between light and human physiology. The energy implications of designing to address these possible physiological effects are not yet fully understood. Beyond the fact that the basic metric of luminous efficacy (lumens per watt) does not cover these other effects, the emerging science seems to indicate that addressing a holistic view of the human needs in most applications may mean a need for increased light and associated energy use by electric lighting systems. Within the two applications considered, lumen output, spectral characteristics, surface reflectance distribution and desk orientation were varied to explore the magnitude of potential effects. Meeting current IES illuminance recommendations did not satisfy existing EML and CS recommendations for any of the simulations. In some cases, satisfying circadian metric recommendations required average illuminance that was more than double IES recommendations, which may negatively impact lighting quality as well. Using results from 45 unique simulation conditions, it was estimated that lighting energy use may increase between 10% and 100% due to increased luminaire light levels used to meet circadian lighting design recommendations listed in current building standards such as WELL v2 Q2 2019, UL Design Guideline 24480, and CHPS Core Criteria 3.0.

circadian lighting, lighting simulation, solid sta↗

Persistence and potential of soil organic carbon in nature‐based climate solutions: A review of managed disturbances

Societal Impact Statement Implementing nature-based climate solutions is important for mitigating climate change, which is a global issue, but requires local adjustments in management practices. Using the association between soil carbon and minerals as a proxy for carbon persistence, we evaluated the effect of different management regimes on soil carbon sequestration and loss. We identified areas where management practices that increase carbon inputs should be prioritized and areas where management should focus on avoiding severe disturbances. Using this storage-potential-and-persistence framework to identify how to increase or maintain soil organic carbon storage locally will increase the effectiveness of nature-based climate solutions globally. Summary Increasing soil organic carbon storage could reduce the pace of climate change, but the longevity of this nature-based climate solution depends on the persistence of carbon in soils, not just the input rates into soils. We apply a framework for considering how soil carbon persistence—namely, via the association with minerals—sheds light on soil carbon sequestration. We review how management of disturbances, such as prescribed burning, forestry, and grazing, can change soil carbon storage, persistence, and potential. Past work demonstrated that management of disturbances can sequester soil carbon, but it remains unclear how the potential stabilization of that accrual and vulnerability to loss varies across disturbance types and geographies. We found that there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in the overlap among estimates of carbon accrual, disturbance occurrence, and potential stabilization: Fire-prone grasslands and intensively grazed rangelands occur in areas estimated to have high potential to store mineral-associated organic carbon, and studies also find that adjusted fire and grazing can promote mineral-associated organic carbon. Plantation forestry and burned area span large regions where particulate organic matter is the dominant form, and studies find that particulate organic carbon is disproportionately lost following intense wildfires and forest harvests. Thus, areas with high mineral-associated organic carbon deficits should be prioritized for practices that increase carbon inputs; whereas areas with high proportions of particulate organic carbon should be prioritized for practices that help to avoid severe disturbances. Taken together, the distribution of and changes in persistence mechanisms shed light on the durability of nature-based climate solutions.

fire↗

Model-free control for frequency response support in microgrids utilizing wind turbines

Islanded microgrids integrated with renewable energy resources bring additional challenges to the primary frequency control due to their power-electronic interfaced generations. Developing an efficient control strategy for inertia emulation and frequency response support of microgrids is becoming an important issue. Wind turbine dynamics, however, will degrade the emulated inertial and primary responses with most traditional control strategies. On the other hand, compensation methods often require the knowledge of system models at the design stage and state estimation for feedback once deployed online. To overcome these challenges, this paper explores a model-free control (MFC) strategy to emulate the desired inertia and support the frequency response of a diesel-wind microgrid system. Additionally, the proposed MFC strategy utilizes a model reference concept to obtain guaranteed inertial response and improve the frequency response of microgrids. This work considers different control strategies with different operating points. The proposed controller is implemented and verified using the modified 33-bus full nonlinear model of the three-phase diesel-wind system in Simulink. Simulation results demonstrate the improved frequency response by precisely emulating the desired inertia using the MFC strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Conditioned quantum-assisted deep generative surrogate for particle-calorimeter interactions

Particle collisions at accelerators like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), recorded by experiments such as ATLAS and CMS, enable precise standard model measurements and searches for new phenomena. Simulating these collisions significantly influences experiment design and analysis but incurs immense computational costs, projected at millions of CPU-years annually during the high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) phase. Currently, simulating a single event with Geant4 consumes around 1000 CPU seconds, with calorimeter simulations especially demanding. To address this, we propose a conditioned quantum-assisted generative model, integrating a conditioned variational autoencoder (VAE) and a conditioned restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). Our RBM architecture is tailored for D-Wave’s Pegasus-structured advantage quantum annealer for sampling, leveraging the flux bias for conditioning. This approach combines classical RBMs as universal approximators for discrete distributions with quantum annealing’s speed and scalability. We also introduce an adaptive method for efficiently estimating effective inverse temperature, and validate our framework on Dataset 2 of CaloChallenge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

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An experimental system and procedure of unsteady-state relative permeability test for gas hydrate-bearing sediments

Reliable estimations of the relative permeability of gas and water in hydrate-bearing sediments (HBS) and the dependency of the relative permeability on hydrate saturation are critical to predict the productivity of a hydrate reservoir. Yet, this remains poorly estimated owing to lack of experimental data associated with difficulties in conducting multiphase flow experiments in HBS. Recognizing the experimental challenges, this study intends to develop and validate a new experimental system and procedure of unsteady-state relative permeability test that can generate reliable and reproducible flow measurements in HBS. Furthermore, gas hydrate is considered as a part of solid matrix in the sediment, so one of the challenges is to maintain a constant hydrate saturation, which is achieved in this experimental study using tight pressure-temperature (P-T) control near the hydrate stability boundary. The measured differential pressure across the specimen, methane injection flow rate, and volume of displaced brine are used to calculate the relative permeability by adopting a conventional Buckley-Leverett theory-based interpretation method. Residual brine saturation calculated for the hydrate-bearing specimen is higher than that of hydrate-free specimen, presumably due to decrease in pore size, increase in heterogeneity of solid matrix, and increase in size distribution of solid matrix and pore in the presence of hydrates. Further studies are necessary to represent the results of the unsteady-state flow experiment in HBS with a gas hydrate-dependent relative permeability model.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Risk Assessment in a Chemical Laboratory Following an Explosive Incident Involving a Novel Diazonium Compound: Retrospective Analysis and Lessons Learned

Diazonium compounds are synthetically useful in the production of dyes and textiles, however they are highly explosive under dry conditions. Explosion prevention becomes more difficult when new diazonium compounds are synthesized, because while some syntheses include a counterion to increase their stability, this is not always a reliable method to prevent an explosive incident. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the explosiveness of different diazonium compounds, it is important to understand how to safely clean up after an incident and how to determine when it is safe to return a laboratory to typical operational use, particularly when the incident involves a novel compound where a standard does not exist for instrument calibration. Here, an explosive event is discussed involving the synthesis of 4-bromo-benzenediazonium-2-carboxylate. Following the explosive incident and 3-step cleanup, which involved a precautionary neutralization step, samples were collected from the fume hood where the incident occurred. Because the incident involved an unstable, novel compound that is not commercially available and was deemed unsafe to resynthesize for instrument calibration, we assessed the risk of further explosion by analyzing for the stable decomposition products. Mass spectrometry analysis confirmed that the residue in the fume hood contained 5-bromosalicylic acid, a decomposition product of 4-bromo-benzenediazonium-2-carboxylate. Samples were taken from multiple points in the fume hood and analyzed to estimate the spatial distribution of the decomposition product. Based on this analysis, we inferred that the primary decomposition product was far more abundant than residual energetic, indicating the energetic had been consumed or neutralized to a trace quantity where the risk of further explosion was low. Furthermore, the steps presented here─specifically, initial neutralization and then analyzing the spatial distribution of expected decomposition products to assess risk when a novel explosive material is detonated in a confined space─were our approach to assess further risk following an explosion due to a novel diazonium compound without the need for any further handling or resynthesis of the energetic. Here, we present our approach and critically analyze these steps by discussing retrospective lessons learned and alternative analytical approaches.

Computer simulations↗

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

SOLEDGE3X full vessel plasma boundary simulations of ITER non-active phase plasmas

The onset of detachment in the ITER machine is analyzed in this work through the help of 2D-axisymmetric boundary plasma simulations with the SOLEDGE3X-EIRENE code, which features a numerical domain for the plasma solver extending up to the first wall. The plasma boundary is computed in scenarios from the first non-active phase of ITER, in pure H and at 20 MW. This set of simulations is used in two aspects: first, to study the plasma detachment in the divertor, and second, the plasma conditions, fluxes, and beryllium erosion at the first wall. Here, the code results are also compared to those obtained with the well-established SOLPS-ITER code, which includes a plasma numerical domain only covering the main SOL. Results show an increase in the SOL width λ q with increasing density, and a detailed analysis is carried out, for the first time, on each of the different plasma-neutral interactions in the code’s physics model in EIRENE. The gross beryllium erosion rates of first wall panels are estimated from 2D simulations, with the aim of assessing their sensitivity to two parameters: the divertor density regime, and the presence of density shoulders in the far-SOL formed by enhanced perpendicular transport at this location. The erosion contributions from neutrals and ions are considered in each case, and the charge-exchange atoms fluxes and energy distributions are provided, highlighting the two atom populations (cold and charge-exchange).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory EAGLE-I TM : Modeling Electric Utility County Customers for Situational Awareness

During natural hazard events (hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and recent man-made events (e.g., cyber attacks), the exchange of near real-time, spatially refined data within the response community is critical. The EAGLE-I$^{TM}$ platform is one tool that facilitates this data for decision makers within the energy sector. While much information can be collected and integrated into the system directly, other pertinent data must be augmented by other derived data products to enhance the information and allow for a consistent evaluation of on-the-ground conditions. One such data set that requires the addition of other derived data is the electric utility customer outage data that is aggregated to the county level within the EAGLE-I application. Without a county customer data set, outages can only be compared on total counts, which gives greater importance to higher population outages. Including an electric utility customer data set at the county level allows for these outage counts to be converted to percent outages and brings a consistent classification of outages and equal importance to all outages. To achieve this, several available data sets were combined and spatial disaggregation techniques were employed to model customer estimates at the county scale. This paper presents the approach to produce this data for the United States and lessons learned from working with these disparate data sets. Data validation is provided, where possible, and limitations of the model and possible improvements are discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗