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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification for Electronic Hamiltonian

This program will generate random points for electrons within the dimensions given by a parameter input file. Based on these randomly generated electron positions and the nuclear positions given by a position input file it will generate a value for the total electronic energy of an isolated system. This total electronic energy is calculated using the electronic Hamiltonian for a monoatomic system with atoms having the same number of protons and neutrons. The size of the system is defined by the parameter input file. The program will do this many times to generate a distribution of theoretically possible electronic total energies of the system. A user can then compare the total electronic energy given by their electronic structure method to make sure it falls within the distribution of theoretically possible values.

Savchick, JuniperC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Solve Large-Scale Security-Constrained Unit Commitment Problems

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a fundamental problem in power systems and electricity markets. In practical settings, SCUC is repeatedly solved via mixed-integer linear programming (MIP), sometimes multiple times per day, with only minor changes in input data. In this work, we propose a number of machine learning techniques to effectively extract information from previously solved instances in order to significantly improve the computational performance of MIP solvers when solving similar instances in the future. Based on statistical data, we predict redundant constraints in the formulation, good initial feasible solutions, and affine subspaces where the optimal solution is likely to lie, leading to a significant reduction in problem size. Computational results on a diverse set of realistic and large-scale instances show that using the proposed techniques, SCUC can be solved on average 4.3 times faster with optimality guarantees and 10.2 times faster without optimality guarantees, with no observed reduction in solution quality. Out-of-distribution experiments provide evidence that the method is somewhat robust against data-set shift. Summary of Contribution. The paper describes a novel computational method, based on a combination of mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and machine learning (ML), to solve a challenging and fundamental optimization problem in the energy sector. The method advances the state-of-the-art, not only for this particular problem, but also, more generally, in solving discrete optimization problems via ML. We expect that the techniques presented can be readily used by practitioners in the energy sector and adapted, by researchers in other fields, to other challenging operations research problems that are solved routinely.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of fast-running eighth core nodal solution

A fast-running, eighth-core solution technique has been developed for the quick core calculations in ANC, the Westinghouse core analysis code based on the nodal expansion method, and the BEACON{sup TM} Core Monitoring System (BEACON). This technique, referred to as 'Fast Eighth' (Fast8), enables users to obtain satisfactory macroscopic core calculation results such as reactivity, axial offset and assembly power much more quickly than calculations performed in the standard full-core or quarter-core geometry. Fast8 uses three techniques: folding the radial geometry into eighth-core geometry, reducing the axial geometry into a coarse axial mesh geometry, and smearing the spacer grids into nodes on-the-fly after the first calculation in the standard geometry. These geometry adjustments in Fast8 contribute to the reduction of the number of neutronic and material nodes while maintaining the reaction rates in each node. The axial mesh condition dependency in Fast8 is investigated in a xenon transient calculation in single assembly geometry, and the Fast8 maximum axial mesh size is determined based on these results. Fast8 is then applied to the load swing calculation, and the results are compared with the reference, full-core geometry, solution. The critical boron concentration and axial offset of Fast8 show good agreement with the reference solutions, and that Fast8 is a good technique for obtaining macroscopic core calculation results in significantly shorter time. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving high temperature resilience of fiber sensor embedded smart components through laser shock peening

This study explores the use of laser shock peening (LSP) to enhance material properties and high-temperature performance of fiber-sensor-fused smart parts fabricated by additive manufacturing (AM) methods. Using embedded fiber sensors as distributed strain gauges, the study demonstrates that LSP can induce compressive strains of up to 130 µε on fiber embedded 1-mm below metal surfaces. The electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis shows that, with optimized LSP parameters, the metallic matrix undergoes substantial microstructural refinement, resulting in denser structures. Thermal cycling tests showed that the LSP process can increase fiber slippage temperatures by more than 50 °C. This work shows that the LSP process is an effective room-temperature process for enhancing both surface quality and increasing fiber slippage threshold under both thermal and mechanical stress.

Zhong, Shuda [University of Pittsburgh, PA (United↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Space Object Conjunction Probabilities Using Characteristic Function Inversion

This report discusses an approach to computing the probability of a conjunction between two space objects in the short-term encounter scenario. A conjunction is defined here as an event where the miss distance between the objects is less than some specified value. The scenario assumptions are that the motion of the objects is linear, their positions are Gaussian distributed, and their velocities are known and constant. Under these assumptions, the squared-miss distance is shown to have the generalized chi-square distribution. An established statistical technique called characteristic function inversion is employed to evaluate the distribution and obtain conjunction probabilities. The method is closely related to a recent approach based on moment generating function inversion, and a qualitative comparison of the approaches is provided. Last, the method is tested on several benchmark test cases where it agrees with numerical integration on the cases with conjunction probabilities above 10 –12 . However, the exact probability in these cases is usually not needed and this probability can be bounded above using an independent Gaussian approximation. Overall, the report shows how to compute conjunction probabilities using a standard statistical method, though numerical integration seems to perform equally well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards a combination of LHC and TeVatron W-boson mass measurements

In this note methodological and modelling considerations towards a combination of the ATLAS, CDF and D0 measurements of the W -boson mass are discussed. As they were performed at different moments in time, each measurement employed different assumptions for the modelling of W -boson production and decay, as well as different fits of the parton distribution functions of the proton (PDFs). Methods are presented to accurately evaluate the effect of PDFs and other modelling variations on existing measurements, allowing to extrapolate them to any PDF set and to evaluate the corresponding uncertainties. Based on this approach, the measurements can be corrected to a common modelling reference and to the same PDFs, and subsequently combined accounting for PDF correlations in a quantitative way.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement and calibration of non-linear shear terms in galaxy cluster fields

Introduction Galaxy cluster lensing is a powerful tool for measuring the mass of galaxy clusters, but accurate shear measurement and calibration are critical to obtaining reliable results. This study focuses on the measurement and calibration of weak lensing shears to improve mass estimates in cluster lensing. To deal with the problem, we first developed an image simulation pipeline, jedisim, which utilizes galaxy images extracted from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Ultra Deep Field (UDF) and the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). Methods The simulations represent realistic galaxy distributions and morphologies as input sources. The foreground halo with a Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile is constructed such that the lensing signals of background galaxies can be measured by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Science Pipelines. By comparing the measured reduced shear g meas and the true reduced shear g true , we observe non-linearity up to g ≲ 0.6 . We fit polynomials to the data with quadratic correction adequate to g ≲ 0.4 . Meanwhile, we conduct mass estimates using the pzmassfitter code on four different clusters. Results The mass estimate results are significantly improved after applying the shear calibration derived from the present work—from 4.954 ± 0.504 × 1 0 14 M ⊙ to 10.507 ± 0.498 × 1 0 14 M ⊙ after calibration for a simulated cluster with the mass of 10 × 1 0 14 M ⊙ . In multiple cases of validation, the estimated results are all consistent with true cluster mass. Discussion This study yields the first relationship between reality and shape measurement of the LSST Science Pipelines and serves as the first step toward the overall goal of mass calibration in cluster lensing. By addressing the challenges in shear measurement and calibration, we aim to enhance the accuracy and reliability of mass estimates in galaxy cluster lensing studies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Elastic Solutions to 2D Plane Strain Problems: Nonlinear Contact and Settlement Analysis for Shallow Foundations

The classical Neumann boundary value problem of an isotropic, homogeneous elastic half-plane under plane strain conditions is readdressed as the limiting case of the fully three-dimensional problem. Analytical solutions of the stress and strain tensors are obtained by taking the limit from known three-dimensional solutions. It is shown that the displacement fields for the plane strain problem are not well defined. A small number of simple expressions are developed, which provide a general solution for linearly-varying traction over arbitrary regions on the boundary. A simple, efficient, and rapidly convergent algorithm is developed which uses these solutions as analytic elements and provides a solution approach to the general boundary value problem. The method is verified against known solutions for Hertzian contact between parallel cylinders. Two numerical examples are presented for the analysis of shallow foundation systems. In the first, the boundary conditions are informed by analytical elastoplastic calculations and a strain influence analysis is performed and compared with the Schmertmann method. Subsequently, empirical laboratory contact traction distributions measured by Bauer et al., in both the normal and tangential directions are employed as boundary conditions for an analysis of the underlying stress field.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Sensing Fiber Coupled with Highly Magnetostrictive Ribbon for Small-Scale Magnetic-Field Detection

Fiber-optic sensing has shown promising development for use in detecting magnetic fields for downhole and biomedical applications. Coupling existing fiber-based strain sensors with highly magnetostrictive materials allows for a new method of magnetic characterization capable of distributed and high-sensitivity field measurements. This study investigates the strain response of the highly magnetostrictive alloys Metglas® 2605SC and Vitrovac® 7600 T70 using Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) acoustic sensors and an applied AC magnetic field. Sentek Instrument’s picoDAS interrogated the distributed FBG sensors set atop a ribbon of magnetostrictive material, and the corresponding strain response transferred to the fiber was analyzed. Using the Vitrovac® ribbon, a minimal detectable field amplitude of 60 nT was achieved. Using Metglas®, an even better sensitivity was demonstrated, where detected field amplitudes as low as 3 nT were measured via the strain response imparted to the FBG sensor. Distributed FBG sensors are readily available commercially, easily integrated into existing interrogation systems, and require no bonding to the magnetostrictive material for field detection. The simple sensor configuration with nanotesla-level sensitivity lends itself as a promising means of magnetic characterization and demonstrates the potential of fiber-optic acoustic sensors for distributed measurements.

Dejneka, Zach (ORCID:0000000179415708)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Joint Analysis of Small-scale Galaxy Clustering and Galaxy–Galaxy Lensing from BOSS Galaxies

We present a joint analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements from BOSS galaxies using a simulation-based emulation method combined with a halo occupation distribution model. Our emulators are constructed with the Aemulus ν simulations, a suite of wνCDM N-body simulations with massive neutrinos as independent particle species. We combine small-scale analysis of clustering from 0.1 to 60.2 h −1 Mpc and lensing from 1.7 to 60.2 h −1 Mpc to perform cosmological constraints. We split the BOSS galaxies into three redshift bins to measure their clustering and employ galaxies from Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey and Hyper Suprime-Cam as source galaxies to measure lensing separately. We find that the addition of lensing significantly improves the constraining power on $S_8 = σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}$, with a weak improvement for fσ 8 . Our results of fσ 8 indicate tensions of around 1σ−4σ below the results of the cosmic microwave background observations of Planck. For S 8 , our results are also lower than Planck, and the tension can be mitigated when considering possible systematics in lensing measurement. As a by-product, our analysis prefers a nonzero neutrino mass but without strong significance, with the constraining power dominated by the clustering. Given the accuracy and precision of our model and the observational data, it is anticipated that larger and higher-quality spectroscopic data sets will improve the constraints on this fundamental property in the near future.

Gao, Wenhao [Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale Linear Magnetic Holes with Magnetic Mirror Properties in Hybrid Simulations of Solar Wind Turbulence

Magnetic holes (MHs) are coherent magnetic field dips whose size ranges from fluid to kinetic scale, ubiquitously observed in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. Despite the long-standing effort in interpreting the abundance of observations, the origin and properties of MHs are still debated. In this Letter, we investigate the interplay between plasma turbulence and MHs, using a 2D hybrid simulation initialized with solar wind parameters. We show that fully developed turbulence exhibits localized elongated magnetic depressions, whose properties are consistent with linear MHs frequently encountered in space. The observed MHs develop self-consistently from the initial magnetic field perturbations by trapping hot ions with large pitch angles. Ion trapping produces an enhanced perpendicular temperature anisotropy that makes MHs stable for hundreds of ion gyroperiods, despite the surrounding turbulence. We introduce a new quantity, based on local magnetic field and ion temperature values, to measure the efficiency of ion trapping, with potential applications to the detection of MHs in satellite measurements. We complement this method by analyzing the ion velocity distribution functions inside MHs. Our diagnostics reveal the presence of trapped gyrotropic ion populations, whose velocity distribution is consistent with a loss cone, as expected for the motion of particles inside a magnetic mirror. Our results have potential implications for the theoretical and numerical modeling of MHs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Study of a Surrogate Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Fuel Element

We report a surrogate fuel, Zirconium Carbide/Titanium Nitride has been prepared using a simple method to obtain a more uniform distribution of titanium nitride in the zirconium carbide matrix. Powders were sintered using Spark Plasma Sintering at 1750oC and 1850oC using a modified sintering profile. This resulted in a fairly uniform distribution of titanium nitride in the zirconium carbide matrix with a density of 95% of theoretical at 1850oC. Scanning electron microscopy, indentation hardness and x-ray diffraction results are given.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

CPC data from TAMU TRACER campaign in the Houston, TX region from July to September 2022

During TRACER, the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurements Van (ROAM-V) was deployed to capture airmasses behind (maritime) and ahead (continental) of the passage of the sea-breeze front through Houston. On select sampling days, ROAM-V sampled in the morning/mid-day on the coast and then transited to a second inland site for the afternoon/evening. The suite of instruments deployed on ROAM-V included a Condensation Particle Counter (CPC; GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC), Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS; TSI 3750 detector, TSI 3082 classifier, TSI 3088 neutralizer, TSI 3081A Differential Mobility Analyzer), Cloud Condensation Nuclei counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies CCN Counter), micro pulse lidar (Droplet Measurement Technologies Micro Pulse LiDAR (miniMPL)), and a Davis Rotating Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM; DRUMAir 4-DRUM). Before sampling at each location, the latitude and longitude were recorded using the GPS on the phone application “My Altitude”. Onboard the ROAM-V, aerosol samples are drawn through a shared isokinetic inlet at a flow rate ranging from 3.5 to 7.0 LPM. A portion of this flow is directed through a cyclone impactor (Brechtel, Inc. Model SCC 0.732) and 0.3 LPM is directed to the CPC. To correct the data for particle losses, we used a two-step method. First, the measured SMPS size distributions were used to calculate total particle loss through the inlet for every SMPS scan at a single deployment location. Second, the CPC data was corrected for particle losses using the average of the total losses per scan. This calculation was done separately for each deployment location due to changes in the measured size distributions between locations. Particle loss from diffusion (based on Kesten, 1991 and Gormley, 1949), inertial impaction in 90-degree bends (based on Aerosol Measurement, 2011 and Crane, 1977), and cyclone impactor efficiency (based on Dirgo, 1985) were included in the loss calculation. When the SMPS was not sampling at a location (in the case of an instrument malfunction or operator error), the reported CPC data was corrected with an average of the total losses for the entire campaign at the specified deployment location (e.g., if we needed to correct Galveston data, then the average of all calculated losses at Galveston was taken). These flatline corrections were used for all data on 22/07/13, 22/07/20, 22/07/22, and the data from Galveston on 22/08/09. An additional flatline correction of 14% was applied to all CPC data based on laboratory calibration prior to and after the campaign. In laboratory calibrations, we identified that for the same sample of air the field CPC (GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC) undercounted the total concentration of particles by 14% compared to the ground truth laboratory CPC (TSI Model 3750). This data was collected for ARM Field Campaign AFC07055 and supported by DOE ASR grant DE-SC0021047. For any further questions, please feel free to contact the instrument PI, Sarah D. Brooks, sbrooks@tamu.edu. Kesten et. al. Calibration of a TSI Model 3025 Ultrafine Condensation Particle Counter. Aerosol Science and Technology, 15:2, 107-111, 1991. Gormley et. al. Diffusion from a Stream Flowing through a Cylindrical Tube. Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, Vol 52, 163-169, 1948. Aerosol Measurement: Principles, Techniques, and Applications, Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2011. Crane et. al. Inertial Deposition of Particles in a Bent Pipe. Journal of Aerosol Science, Vol 8, 161-170, 1977. Dirgo et. al. Cyclone Collection Efficiency: Comparison of Experimental Results with Theoretical Predictions. Aerosol Science and Technology, 4:4, 401-415, 1985.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Corn Heat Stress: Mean and SD of Degree Days Above 29°C based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Projections

Description This global dataset provides the estimated mean and standard deviation (SD) of corn heat stress (degree days above 29°C) for a set of climate models in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 at 0.25-degree resolution. The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The current dataset includes: Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 The mean and SD are calculated over 1985-2014 for the historical period and over 2035-2064 for future projections. A full description of methods, including growing season, daily temperature distribution, and statistical coefficients, can be found in Haqiqi (2024). The source climate data are obtained from https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds2/catalog/catalog.html and are described in Thrasher et al (2022). The codes used to create this dataset are available at https://github.com/ihaqiqi/dd29c_nex_cmip6. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141. The data processing, computation, and storage were completed on Purdue Anvil supercomputer and cyberinfrastructure supported by the National Science Foundation HDR award # 2118329: "NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE)". References Haqiqi. I. (2024). Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply. Environmental Research: Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad7d12 Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A., Melton, F., Lee, T., & Nemani, R. (2022). NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Scientific Data, 9(1), 262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Level Optimal Power Flow Solver in Large Distribution Networks: Preprint

Solving optimal power flow (OPF) problem for large distribution networks incurs high computational complexity. We consider a large multi-phase distribution networks of tree topology with deep penetration of active devices. We divide the network into collaborating areas featuring subtree topology and subareas featuring subsubtree topology. We design a multi-level implementation of the primal-dual gradient algorithm for solving the voltage regulation OPF problems while preserving nodal voltage information and topological information within areas and subareas. Numerical results on a 4,521-node system verifies that the proposed algorithm can significantly improve computational speed without compromising any optimality.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the research completed during the project entitled "The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States" (Award: DE-SC0018039). The report covers work completed between 9/15/17 and 9/14/20. The objective of the exploratory project work was to evaluate the overarching hypothesis that the subsurface underlying actively eroding landscapes is systematically structured as a result of a balance between weathering and erosion and that this structure leads to dynamic moisture storage within weathered rock. To accomplish project objectives, we characterized hillslope weathering profile structure and conducted subsurface moisture monitoring across four study sites with comparable bedrock types but differing erosion rate and hydroclimate: The Angelo Coast Range Reserve (ACRR), Sagehorn-Russell Ranch (SRR), Antelope Valley Ranch (AVR), and the LBNL Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). New characterization and monitoring infrastructure at the AVR and SFA sites was established through this project and enables long-term monitoring of hydrologic and carbon fluxes at the sites for comparison with long-term monitoring in other sites. Deep drilling, downhole logging, and characterization of chemistry and porosity of rock recovered from drilling reveals two weathering fronts across the sites. A shallower front is marked by the extent of pervasive fracturing and oxidation of pyrite and organic carbon. A deeper weathering front is marked by the appearance of open fractures and discoloration. At the AVR site, multiple ridge tops of different hillslope length were investigated to establish the relationship between the weathering front and topography. Drilling reveals that the fraction of the hillslope relief that is weathered scales with hillslope length, consistent with the theoretical framework that guided the project relating groundwater drainage with landscape evolution. With the establishment of new boreholes, we have documented significant water storage in weathered bedrock using low-field borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) across all four sites. In the upper 4 m of bedrock, the average water contents at ACRR, AVR, SRR, and SFA are approximately 25%, 16%, 25%, 23% respectively. At the ACRR site, where long-term monitoring via neutron probe surveys and time-domain transmission sensors are available, we have demonstrated that NMR reliably records moisture content and importantly, moisture content dynamics in weathered bedrock. Across all sites, our NMR monitoring has also revealed that a considerable fraction of the water storage occurs in fractures or pores that are significantly larger than the fine-grained bedrock matrix of the parent rock. To identify the proportion of water storage occurring in fractures and large pores, we analyzed the NMR signal by evaluating both the sum of echoes and an inversion of the NMR signal for a distribution of T2 relaxation times. Both methods reveal that at least 20% of the water storage occurs in fractures and larger pores across all sites. To constrain the interpretation of the in-situ field-scale NMR measurements, we compare the NMR response in the field to independent pore-structure information obtained via helium pycnometry. Results support the inference that dynamic seasonal water storage is dominantly restricted to the fracture network, which can reach 7% of the total volume. This dynamic range in water content is comparable to that of some soils, underscoring the need to understand how this region of the Earth System is structured, and functions as a hydrologic reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing aircraft flows at airports using data driven predicted capabilities

A method for safe and efficient use of airport runway capacity includes receiving, at an air traffic control system at an airport, airport data related to movement areas of the airport, time data related to a time period, aircraft data related to a plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period, and environmental data related to environmental conditions predicted for the airport during the time period. The method further includes computing a probability distribution for inter-aircraft spacing by applying the airport data, the time data, the aircraft data, and the environmental data to a trained Bayesian network, producing the probability distribution for the inter-aircraft spacing as an output observation of the trained Bayesian network, and, using the probability distribution and a confidence value, identifying an inter-aircraft spacing value for the plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period.

Sweet, Douglas↗