WEC Design Optimization (?WecOptTool?) - September 2020 webinar.
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Abstract not provided.
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The presentation was delivered at the 2022 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) annual meeting.
This presentation was delivered at the 2022 INFORMS Annual Meeting.
The presentation contains research findings of market analysis of direct-fired supercritical CO2 power cycles integrated with a liquid oxygen storage system. The research findings were presented at the AIChE Annual Meeting.
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Designing optimal experiments minimizes the uncertainty of results and maximizes the efficient use of resources. Herein, machine learning surrogate models and the approximate coordinate exchange (ACE) algorithm are used to determine optimum experimental designs over large or arbitrarily restrictive design spaces. Optimal experimental design is particularly salient in materials science where experiments are expensive and material properties must often be inferred indirectly. The proposed framework is demonstrated by finding optimal experiments with which the hidden constituent properties of composite materials can be most efficiently inferred from observable experimental outcomes. The optimum experimental design is given by an information-theoretic criteria, which maximizes the conditional mutual information between the hidden properties and the expected experimental outcomes. To perform tractable optimization a neural network is trained as a surrogate model to mimic a physics based simulation, which can calculate the expected experimental outcome based on a candidate experimental design and sampled constituent properties. The ACE algorithm is used to optimize over large design spaces with many tests and controlled parameters where an exhaustive search would be intractable even with the surrogate model. Using this approach, optimal experimental designs that are consistent with those produced by heuristic knowledge and established best practices are found; then optimal designs in larger design spaces where heuristic knowledge is unavailable are examined.
Design optimization of large structural systems can be attempted through a substructure strategy when convergence difficulties are encountered. When this strategy is used, the large structure is divided into several smaller substructures and a subproblem is defined for each substructure. The solution of the large optimization problem can be obtained iteratively through repeated solutions of the modest subproblems. Substructure strategies, in sequential as well as in parallel computational modes on a Cray YMP multiprocessor computer, have been incorporated in the optimization test bed CometBoards. CometBoards is an acronym for Comparative Evaluation Test Bed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for Design of Structures. Three issues, intensive computation, convergence of the iterative process, and analytically superior optimum, were addressed in the implementation of substructure optimization into CometBoards. Coupling between subproblems as well as local and global constraint grouping are essential for convergence of the iterative process. The substructure strategy can produce an analytically superior optimum different from what can be obtained by regular optimization. For the problems solved, substructure optimization in a parallel computational mode made effective use of all assigned processors.
An algorithm for optimal design is given which incorporates several of the desirable features of both mathematical programming and optimality criteria, while avoiding some of the undesirable features. The algorithm proceeds by approaching the optimal solution through the solutions of an associated set of constrained optimal design problems. The solutions of the constrained problems are recognized at each stage through the application of optimality criteria based on energy concepts. Two examples are described in which the optimal member size and layout of a truss is predicted, given the joint locations and loads.
Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.
Reliable estimation of thermal properties is extremely important in the utilization of new advanced materials, such as composite materials. The accuracy of these estimates can be increased if the experiments are designed carefully. The objectives of this study are to design optimal experiments to be used in the prediction of these thermal properties and to then utilize these designs in the development of an estimation procedure to determine the effective thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity). The experiments were optimized by choosing experimental parameters that maximize the temperature derivatives with respect to all of the unknown thermal properties. This procedure has the effect of minimizing the confidence intervals of the resulting thermal property estimates. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional experimental designs were optimized. A heat flux boundary condition is required in both analyses for the simultaneous estimation of the thermal properties. For the one-dimensional experiment, the parameters optimized were the heating time of the applied heat flux, the temperature sensor location, and the experimental time. In addition to these parameters, the optimal location of the heat flux was also determined for the two-dimensional experiments. Utilizing the optimal one-dimensional experiment, the effective thermal conductivity perpendicular to the fibers and the effective volumetric heat capacity were then estimated for an IM7-Bismaleimide composite material. The estimation procedure used is based on the minimization of a least squares function which incorporates both calculated and measured temperatures and allows for the parameters to be estimated simultaneously.
A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.
A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.
Structural design optimization for additive manufacturing is primarily focused on planar layer-by-layer processes and design of composite cylindrical structures does not often accommodate manufacturing constraints. In this study, we propose to optimize the toolpath trajectory of additively manufactured composite cylinders comprised of multiple thin cylindrical annuli. Additionally, our printing process is based on direct ink writing in which short carbon fibers in a thermoset resin are extruded through a moving nozzle to build up a structure. Since the fibers are primarily aligned in the flow direction of the extrudate, the printing trajectory influences the material properties of the composite structure. To accommodate this, we define the toolpaths as contours of parameterized level-set functions. This parameterization allows us to optimize the material properties and impose manufacturing constraints such as no-overlap, no-sag, minimum radius of curvature, and continuity of the toolpaths. Several examples illustrate the optimization procedure.
Advanced detector R&D requires performing computationally intensive and detailed simulations as part of the detector-design optimization process. Here, we propose a general approach to this process based on Bayesian optimization and machine learning that encodes detector requirements. As a case study, we focus on the design of the dual-radiator Ring Imaging Cherenkov (dRICH) detector under development as a potential component of the particle-identification system at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). The EIC is a US-led frontier accelerator project for nuclear physics, which has been proposed to further explore the structure and interactions of nuclear matter at the scale of sea quarks and gluons. We show that the detector design obtained with our automated and highly parallelized framework outperforms the baseline dRICH design within the assumptions of the current model. Our technique can be applied to any detector R&D, provided that realistic simulations are available.
We are developing arrays of position-sensitive microcalorimeters for future x-ray astronomy applications. These position-sensitive devices commonly referred to as hydras consist of multiple x-ray absorbers, each with a different thermal coupling to a single-transition-edge sensor microcalorimeter. Their development is motivated by a desire to achieve very large pixel arrays with some modest compromise in performance. We report on the design, optimization, and first results from devices with small pitch pixels (<75 μm) being developed for a high-angular and energy resolution imaging spectrometer for Lynx. The Lynx x-ray space telescope is a flagship mission concept under study for the National Academy of Science 2020 decadal survey. Broadband full-width-half-maximum (FWHM) resolution measurements on a 9-pixel hydra have demonstrated ΔE(FWHM) = 2.23 ± 0.14 eV at Al-Kα, ΔE(FWHM) = 2.44 ± 0.29 eV at Mn-Kα, and ΔE(FWHM) = 3.39 ± 0.23 eV at Cu-Kα. Position discrimination is demonstrated to energies below <1 keV and the device performance is well-described by a finite-element model. Results from a prototype 20-pixel hydra with absorbers on a 50-μm pitch have shown ΔE(FWHM) = 3.38 ± 0.20 eV at Cr-Kα1. We are now optimizing designs specifically for Lynx and extending the number of absorbers up to 25/hydra. Numerical simulation suggests optimized designs could achieve ∼3 eV while being compatible with the bandwidth requirements of the state-of-the art multiplexed readout schemes, thus making a 100,000 pixel microcalorimeter instrument a realistic goal.