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At least 775 records · Page 43

A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

Horvitz, Eric↗

Global Soil Moisture Estimation from L-Band Satellite Data: The Impact of Radiative Transfer Modeling in Assimilation and Retrieval Systems

The SMOS and SMAP missions have collected a wealth of global L-band Brightness temperature (Tb) observations. The retrieval of surface Soil moisture estimates, and the estimation of other geophysical Variables, such as root-zone soil moisture and temperature, via data Assimilation into land surface models largely depends on accurate Radiative transfer modeling (RTM). This presentation will focus on various configuration aspects of the RTM (i) for the inversion of SMOS Tb to surface soil moisture, and (ii) for the forward modeling as part of a SMOS Tb data assimilation System to estimate a consistent set of geophysical land surface Variables, using the GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model.

De Lannoy, Gabrielle↗

A time-dependent gyro-kinetic model of thermal ion upflows in the high-latitude F region

Ample evidence supports the significance of the high-latitude ionospheric contribution to magnetospheric plasma. Assuming flux conservation along a flux tube, the upward field-aligned ion flows observed in the magnetosphere require high-latitude ionospheric field-aligned ion upflows of the order of 10(exp 8) to 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s. Since radar and satellite observations of high-latitude F region flows at times exceed this flux requirement by an order of magnitude, the thermal ionospheric upflows are not simply the ionospheric response to a magnetospheric flux requirement. Several ionospheric ion upflow mechanisms have been proposed, but simulations based on fluid theory do not reproduce all the observed features of ionospheric ion upflows. Certain asymmetries in the statistical morphology of high-latitude F region ion upflows suggest that the ion upflows may be generated by ion-neutral frictional heating. We developed a single-component (O(+)), time-dependent gyro-kinetic model of the high-latitude F region response to frictional heating in which the neutral exobase is a discontinuous boundary between fully collisional and collisionless plasmas. The concept of a discontinuous neutreal exobase and the assumption of a constant and uniform polarization electric field reduce the ion velocity distribution function, from which we can compute the ion density, parallel velocity, parallel and perpendicular temperature, and parallel flux. Using our model, we simulated the response of a convecting flux tube between 500 km and 2500 km to various frictional heating inputs; the results were both qualitatively and quantitatively different from fluid model results, which may indicate an inadequacy of the fluid theory approach. The gyro-kinetic frictional heating model responses to the various simulations were qualitatively similar: (1) initial perturbations of all the modeled parameters propagated rapidly up the flux tube, (2) transient values of the ion parallel velocity, temperature, and flux exceeded 3 km/s, 2 x 10(exp 4) K, and 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s, respectively, (3) a second transient regime developed wherein the parallel temperature drops to very low values (a few hundred Kelvins), and (4) well after heating ceased, large parallel temperatures and large downward parallel velocities and fluxes developed as the flux tube slowly returned to diffusive equilibrium. The ion velocity distributions during the simulation are often non-Maxwellian and are sometimes composed of two distinct ion populations.

Loranc, M.↗

A magnetospheric magnetic field model with flexible current systems driven by independent physical parameters

A tilt-dependent magnetic field model of the Earth's magnetosphere with variable magnetopause standoff distance is presented. Flexible analytic representations for the ring and cross-tail currents, each composed of the elements derived from the Tsyganenko and Usmanov (1982) model, are combined with the fully shielded vacuum dipole configurations of Voigt (1981). Although the current sheet does not warp in the y-z plane, changes in the shape and position of the neutral sheet with dipole tilt are consistent with both MHD equilibrium theory and observations. In addition, there is good agreement with observed Delta B profiles and the average equatorial contours of magnetic field magnitude. While the dipole field is rigorously shielded within the defined magnetopause, the ring and cross-tails currents are not similarly confined, consequently, the model's region of validity is limited to the inner magnetosphere. The model depends on four independent external parameters. We present a simple but limited method of simulating several substorm related magnetic field changes associated with the disrupion of the near-Earth cross-tail current sheet and collapse of the midnight magnetotail field region. This feature further facilitates the generation of magnetic field configuration time sequences useful in plasma convection simulations of real magnetospheric events.

Hilmer, Robert V.↗

Age Dependent 3-D Magnetic Modeling of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceanic Crust at Intermediate Wavelengths

Three-dimensional magnetic modeling of the North Atlantic and Northeast pacific is performed at intermediate wavelengths using three models for the acquisition of a natural remanent magnetization. It is shown that a remanent magnetization which is dependent on the rustal age is the dominant source for the intermediate wavelength pattern in both basins.

magnetic modeling tectonics plate tectonics oceani↗

The Temperature Dependence of the Langmuir Adsorption Model for a Single-Site Metal–Organic Framework

The single-site Langmuir adsorption model, also known as the Langmuir isotherm equation, is one of the simplest possible descriptions of adsorption phenomena, and yet finds widespread applicability across a range of disciplines. In its simplest form, it is deployed to treat adsorption equilibria at constant temperature (i.e., along isotherms); however, at the heart of its derivation is a more general class of models that each incorporate an explicit temperature dependence, subject to assumptions about the spatial/translational degrees of freedom of the adsorbed species. In this work, measurements of the temperature dependence of supercritical adsorption of H 2 on a single-site metal-organic framework (MOF) are presented, and fitted using a range of Langmuir models with distinct treatments of degrees of freedom in the adsorbed phase. Surprisingly, all of the models can be used to adequately represent the measured data, despite yielding significantly different values for binding energy and the temperature dependence of the isosteric enthalpy of adsorption (i.e., the isosteric heat, qst). Furthermore, a critical finding is that the mean-temperature isosteric enthalpy of adsorption remains consistent across all models within experimental error, highlighting its reliability for evaluating adsorption thermodynamics.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Assessing models of force-dependent unbinding rates via infrequent metadynamics

Protein–ligand interactions are crucial for a wide range of physiological processes. Many cellular functions result in these non-covalent “bonds” being mechanically strained, and this can be integral to proper cellular function. Broadly, two classes of force dependence have been observed—slip bonds, where the unbinding rate increases, and catch bonds, where the unbinding rate decreases. Despite much theoretical work, we cannot predict for which protein–ligand pairs, pulling coordinates, and forces a particular rate dependence will appear. Here, we assess the ability of MD simulations combined with enhanced sampling techniques to probe the force dependence of unbinding rates. We show that the infrequent metadynamics technique correctly produces both catch and slip bonding kinetics for model potentials. We then apply it to the well-studied case of a buckyball in a hydrophobic cavity, which appears to exhibit an ideal slip bond. Finally, we compute the force-dependent unbinding rate of biotin–streptavidin. Here, the complex nature of the unbinding process causes the infrequent metadynamics method to begin to break down due to the presence of unbinding intermediates, despite the use of a previously optimized sampling coordinate. Allowing for this limitation, a combination of kinetic and free energy computations predicts an overall slip bond for larger forces consistent with prior experimental results although there are substantial deviations at small forces that require further investigation. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the promise of predicting force-dependent unbinding rates using enhanced sampling MD techniques while also revealing the methodological barriers that must be overcome to tackle more complex targets in the future.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mesoscale modeling of microstructure-dependent thermal conductivity in U-Zr fuels

In uranium-zirconium (U-Zr) based metallic fuels, different phases can form at different compositions and temperatures. Typically, lamellar δ-UZr 2 and α-U phases are the dominant microstructures in U-rich U-Zr alloys at temperatures below 880 K. In this work, a finite element method based mesoscale modeling technique is used to calculate the effective thermal conductivities of such heterogeneous microstructures, using the thermal conductivities of two individual phases and their interphase thermal resistance (Kapitza resistance) as input parameters. The Kapitza resistance between δ-UZr 2 and α-U is determined at different temperatures, which shows an approximately T 3 dependence in the temperature range between 300 and 800 K. In addition, the Kapitza resistance exhibits a strong dependence on the aspect ratio of the δ-UZr 2 phase. Further, an analytical model is therefore developed to quantify the effects of both temperature and δ-UZr 2 aspect ratio on the Kapitza resistance. Using this newly developed Kapitza resistance model, the effective thermal conductivities of a number of δ-UZr 2 + α-U heterogeneous microstructures in U-Zr alloys, including non-lamellar microstructures, can be estimated accurately.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Predicting encapsulant delamination in photovoltaic modules bridging photochemical reaction kinetics and fracture mechanics

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) modules are subjected to environmental stressors (UV exposure, temperature, and humidity) that cause degradation within the encapsulant and its interfaces with adjacent glass and cell substrates. To save experimental time and to enable long‐term assessment with intensive degradation only taking place after many years, the development of predictive models is indispensable. Previous works have modeled the delamination of the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) encapsulant/glass and encapsulant/cell interfaces under field aging conditions with fundamental photochemical degradation reactions that lead to molecular scission and loss of interfacial adhesion, characterized by the fracture resistance, G c . However, these models were fundamentally limited in that the following aspects were not incorporated: (i) molecular crosslinking in the field, (ii) synergistic autocatalytic interactions of degradation mechanisms, (iii) connection between degraded encapsulant structure and its mechanical properties, and (iv) rigorous treatment of the plasticity contribution to G c with finite element models. Here, we present a time‐dependent multiscale model that addresses these limitations and is applicable to a wide range of encapsulants and interfaces. For the reference EVA encapsulant and its interfaces with the glass and cell, the presented model predicts an initial rise in G c in the first 3 years of field aging from crosslinking, then a subsequent sharp decline from degradation mechanisms. We used nanoindentation to measure the changes in EVA mechanical properties over exposure time to tune the model parameters. The model predictions of G c and mechanical properties match with experimental data and show an improvement compared to previous models. The model can even predict switches in failure interfaces, such as the observed EVA/cell to EVA/glass transition. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis study by varying the degradation and crosslinking kinetic parameters to demonstrate their effects on G c . Model extensions to polyolefin elastomer‐ and silicone‐encapsulants and their interfaces are also demonstrated.

Liu, Kuan↗

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Continuous-time probabilistic models for longitudinal electronic health records

Analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data is an important goal for precision medicine. Difficulty in applying Machine Learning (ML) methods, either predictive or unsupervised, stems in part from the heterogeneity and irregular sampling of EHR data. Here, we present an unsupervised probabilistic model that captures nonlinear relationships between variables over continuous-time. This method works with arbitrary sampling patterns and captures the joint probability distribution between variable measurements and the time intervals between them. Inference algorithms are derived that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of future using under a trained model. As an example, we consider data from the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the areas of diabetes and depression. Likelihood ratio maps are produced showing the likelihood of risk for moderate-severe vs minimal depression as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the Solution of ℓ 0 -Constrained Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation Problems

The sparse inverse covariance matrix is used to model conditional dependencies between variables in a graphical model to fit a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Estimating the matrix from data are well known to be computationally expensive for large-scale problems. Sparsity is employed to handle noise in the data and to promote interpretability of a learning model. Although the use of a convex ℓ 1 regularizer to encourage sparsity is common practice, the combinatorial ℓ 0 penalty often has more favorable statistical properties. In this paper, we directly constrain sparsity by specifying a maximally allowable number of nonzeros, in other words, by imposing an ℓ 0 constraint. Here, we introduce an efficient approximate Newton algorithm using warm starts for solving the nonconvex ℓ 0 -constrained inverse covariance learning problem. Numerical experiments on standard data sets show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

$\ell_0$-Constrained↗

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan - Linear theory and numerical simulations

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan are studied by a linear steady-state analytic model and a nonlinear time-dependent numerical model with parameterized subgrid-scale physics. The solutions of the linear model show that the orientation of the mean wind field to the surface heating pattern is crucial to the shapes of the disturbances. The results indicate that the relative warmth of the lake surface can induce three updraft centers under a westerly wind, two updraft centers/bands under a northwesterly wind, and a convergence band under a northerly wind. Such convergences are caused by the interaction between the mean wind and the local circulations forced by the curved thermal contrasts. The numerical results from the nonlinear model not only produce convergence patterns very similar to those found in the linear theory and in other numerical studies, but also capture the transient property in some of the lake-induced disturbances. All of these results are qualitatively confirmed by satellite images.

Hsu, Hsiao-Ming↗

Probing the High-energy Gamma-Ray Emission Mechanism in the Vela Pulsar via Phase-resolved Spectral and Energy-dependent Light-curve Modeling

Recent kinetic simulations sparked a debate regarding the emission mechanism responsible for pulsed GeV γ-ray emission from pulsars. Some models invoke curvature radiation, while other models assume synchrotron radiation in the current sheet. We interpret the curved spectrum of the Vela pulsar as seen by H.E.S.S. II (up to ∼100 GeV) and the Fermi Large Area Telescope to be the result of curvature radiation due to primary particles in the pulsar magnetosphere and current sheet. We present phase-resolved spectra and energy-dependent light curves using an extended slot gap and current-sheet model, invoking a step function for the accelerating electric field as motivated by kinetic simulations. We include a refined calculation of the curvature radius of particle trajectories in the lab frame, impacting the particle transport, predicted light curves, and spectra. Our model reproduces the decrease of the flux of the first peak relative to the second one, evolution of the bridge emission, near-constant phase positions of peaks, and narrowing of pulses with increasing energy. We can explain the first of these trends because we find that the curvature radii of the particle trajectories in regions where the second γ-ray light-curve peak originates are systematically larger than those associated with the first peak, implying that the spectral cutoff of the second peak is correspondingly larger. However, an unknown azimuthal dependence of the E field, as well as uncertainty in the precise spatial origin of the GeV emission, precludes a simplistic discrimination of emission mechanisms.

Monica Barnard↗

densegranFoam

densegranFoam is a dense granular material flow solver developed using the OpenFoam Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. It is developed using Euler-Euler framework. The transport model is implemented using the shear rate dependant constitutive model. The primary focus of the solver is to simulate shear rate dependency on the dense granular flow bulk behavior.

Ahsan, Syed↗

Implementation of Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Micromechanics Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites

A procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear response of composite plates under large strain and high strain rate loading. A recently developed strain dependent micromechanics model is extended to account for the shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of shear deformation effects are investigated to improve the development strain rate dependent micromechanics model. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio is developed. The revised micromechanics model is implemented into higher order laminate theory. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate transverse shear effects during impact.

Kim, Heung Soo↗

Microwave-Assisted Plastic Upcycling: Dynamic Data Reconciliation, Parameter Estimation, and Kinetic Modeling

Microwave (MW)-assisted catalytic pyrolysis offers a promising pathway for efficient plastic upcycling. This work develops an integrated modeling framework combining dynamic data reconciliation, a temperature-dependent rate model, and a yield model to represent the time-varying production rate of components in MW-assisted LDPE pyrolysis conducted in a batch reactor. An Arrhenius-type rate model with a temperature-dependent reaction order is developed. A biexponential correlation is proposed for the yield of gaseous products that enables to capture the evolving product formation behavior during conversion. In the yield correlation, one term is used to represent the initial increase in yield, reflecting the rapid formation of intermediate or primary products at the early stages of the reaction when a larger fraction of the reactant remains available. As conversion progresses, the influence of this term gradually diminishes. The other term accounts for the subsequent decrease in the predicted yield, representing secondary reactions such as further cracking or coke formation that reduce the concentration of certain products at higher conversion. The model is found to accurately represent reconciled experimental flow rate profiles from an in-house MW-assisted catalytic batch reactor for major products, including ethylene, ethane, 1-butene, and benzene, across 250−350 °C. Ethylene remains the dominant product but decreases from about 41.95% at 250 °C to 30.14% at 350 °C, while heavier products increase significantly, with 1-butene rising to nearly 8.37% and benzene reaching 2.17% at intermediate temperatures. The model shows that the ethylene production rate can be maximized at around 270 °C. The models developed in this work can be utilized for process optimization, reactor design and scale-up of microwave-assisted plastic conversion technologies, and economic analysis.

Damahe, Harish [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W↗