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At least 775 records · Page 43

NASA DEVELOP’s Approach to Building Capacity to Apply Earth Observations for Coastal and Marine Decision Making

Part of NASA’s Applied Sciences, the DEVELOP Program builds capacity through 10-week interdisciplinary feasibility studies that identify how NASA Earth observations can be integrated into decision making processes. The program is a dual capacity building effort that fosters programmatic participants (early and transitioning career professionals, students, and recent graduates) to apply Earth observations to partner organizations’ decision making needs. The program conducts 50-60 projects annually, with about 10-15% of those focused on coastal and marine community concerns. These projects explore the use of satellite data and model outputs for measuring and mapping shoreline delineation, barrier island transgression, mangrove health and extent, sedimentation and water quality, and tropical cyclone impacts to coastal regions. This presentation will introduce DEVELOP and a series of project case studies, an overview of the organizations engaged and Earth observations utilized, and lessons learned.

Capacity Building↗

NASA DEVELOP’s User-Centric Approach to Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations for Decision Making

The DEVELOP Program, part of NASA’s Applied Sciences, conducts 50-60 feasibility studies annually that center on user needs. Each project is tailored to its partner’s decision making processes with the goal of identifying and implementing opportunities for Earth observation data and information to be integrated into environmental decision making processes. These projects are conducted by a team of early career professionals through a 10-week term where the DEVELOP team rapidly iterates with partners culminating in a “recipe” for using NASA Earth observations. This presentation will introduce the DEVELOP model for user-centered design of projects, share the program's iterative approach to project execution, highlight multiple case studies, and lessons learned in the program’s model evolution.

Capacity Building↗

A 3D Simulation Platform for Decentralized Decision-Making in Advanced Air Mobility

This paper presents a general purpose, plug-and-play simulation platform for the use of future aviation stakeholders, such as urban airspace planners, air vehicle operators, ground operation managers, air traffic controllers and aviation researchers. The presented simulator platform is envisioned to serve as a toolkit to visualize, evaluate, and configure future advanced air mobility (AAM) operations. Highlighting features of this toolkit include a modular architecture that allows multiple smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to remotely connect to the simulation server and participate in decentralized decision-making scenario simulations. As an example of the decentralized decision-making scenario, an inter-agent negotiation-based conflict resolution use case is considered in this paper, where the UASs leverage the on-board/on-the-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capability to continually build situational awareness, and use this information to predict future conflicts and resolve them through machine-to-machine negotiation. As such operations are non-existent at scale currently, the presented simulation platform offers a viable and cost-effective alternative for assessing the efficacy of AAM research outcomes and challenges in future shared airspace usage. The simulation platform allows plug-n-play connectivity with AI and non-AI compute modules representing individual UAS’s flight control. Each module can interact with the simulation platform independently to communicate current and desired future states, situational awareness, and conflict resolution utilization costs for inter-agent negotiation. The simulation environment orchestrates realistic operational scenarios with spatiotemporal details, dynamic events, tactical conflict-resolution methods, interfaces for customizing air traffic control parameters, and information exchange uncertainties. In the future, this can serve as a community focused cloud simulation platform, incorporating multi-stakeholder airspace constraints from regulatory, government, city, and local agencies.

Aditya N Das↗

A 3D Simulation Platform for Decentralized Decision-Making in Advanced Air Mobility

This paper presents a general purpose, plug-and-play simulation platform for the use of future aviation stakeholders, such as urban airspace planners, air vehicle operators, ground operation managers, air traffic controllers and aviation researchers. The presented simulator platform is envisioned to serve as a toolkit to visualize, evaluate, and configure future advanced air mobility (AAM) operations. Highlighting features of this toolkit include a modular architecture that allows multiple smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to remotely connect to the simulation server and participate in decentralized decision-making scenario simulations. As an example of the decentralized decision-making scenario, an inter-agent negotiation-based conflict resolution use case is considered in this paper, where the UASs leverage the on-board/on-the-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capability to continually build situational awareness, and use this information to predict future conflicts and resolve them through machine-to-machine negotiation. As such operations are non-existent at scale currently, the presented simulation platform offers a viable and cost-effective alternative for assessing the efficacy of AAM research outcomes and challenges in future shared airspace usage. The simulation platform allows plug-n-play connectivity with AI and non-AI compute modules representing individual UAS’s flight control. Each module can interact with the simulation platform independently to communicate current and desired future states, situational awareness, and conflict resolution utilization costs for inter-agent negotiation. The simulation environment orchestrates realistic operational scenarios with spatiotemporal details, dynamic events, tactical conflict-resolution methods, interfaces for customizing air traffic control parameters, and information exchange uncertainties. In the future, this can serve as a community focused cloud simulation platform, incorporating multi-stakeholder airspace constraints from regulatory, government, city, and local agencies.

Aditya Das↗

The Value of a Spaceflight Clinical Decision Support System for Earth-Independent Medical Operations

As NASA prepares for crewed lunar missions over the next several years, plans are also underway to journey farther into deep space. Deep space exploration will require a paradigm shift in astronaut medical support toward progressively earth-independent medical operations (EIMO). The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) is investigating the feasibility and value of advanced capabilities to promote and enhance EIMO. Currently, astronauts rely on real-time communication with ground-based medical providers. However, as the distance from Earth increases, so do communication delays and disruptions. Moreover, resupply and evacuation will become increasingly complex, if not impossible, on deep space missions. In contrast to today’s missions in low earth orbit (LEO), where most medical expertise and decision-making are ground-based, an exploration crew will need to autonomously detect, diagnose, treat, and prevent medical events. Due to the sheer amount of pre-mission training required to execute a human spaceflight mission, there is often little time to devote exclusively to medical training. One potential solution is to augment the long duration exploration crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities with a clinical decision support system (CDSS). An analysis of preliminary data indicates the potential benefits of a CDSS to mission outcomes when augmenting cognitive and procedural performance of an autonomous crew performing medical operations, and we provide an illustrative scenario of how such a CDSS might function.

Brian K. Russell↗

Can Resilience Assessments Inform Early Design Human Factors Decision-making?

There is a growing call among researchers for tighter coupling between human factors and human reliability assessments. In this research, we explore if early design stage resilience assessments can help bridge some of the gaps between human factors and human reliability assessments. Resilience in systems is their ability to recover reasonably and operate within acceptable bounds during failures and unexpected events. The fmdtools toolkit allows designers to assess the resilience of a system by modeling the human error and machine-related failure propagation in both nominal and faulty scenarios during the early design stages. As a result, the fmdtools toolkit has a low-fidelity dynamic human reliability assessment component built into it. In this paper, we study if the results from the fmdtools simulations can help inform and prioritize human factors design decision-making, resulting in tighter coupling between human factors and human reliability assessments during the design process. Specifically, we explore the results from a rover design example to understand the types of information that can help guide human factor-related decision-making.

Resilience-based Design↗

Exploration Medical Capability Clinical Decision Support System Architecture Recommendation

A new era in space exploration has arrived with the goal of establishing a long-term presence on the Moon and using those learning to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes in in-flight medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time, and medical evacuation capabilities. Furthermore, while crews currently rely on real-time communications with ground-based medical providers, as distance from Earth increases, so do communication delays and disruptions. The crew will need to autonomously detect, diagnose, treat, and prevent medical events. These constraints require development of transformative solutions and new technologies. Through participation in the Human Research Program’s (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) research, NASA has developed and demonstrated a Medical Data Architecture (MDA), a platform upon which a robust capability of Clinical Decision Support (CDS) can be built. As a result, NASA is now positioned to build an advanced autonomous CDS System (CDSS) which will aid in crew health decision-making. The CDSS combines data management aspects of a system that would lead to the autonomy required by NASA-STD-3001, Section 3, Health and Medical Care Standards. The project addresses the ExMC gap Medical-701: We need to increase inflight medical capabilities and identify new capabilities that (a) maximize benefit and/or (b) reduce “costs” on human system/mission/vehicle resources. This architecture recommendation document introduces an integrated data architecture that provides self-sufficient medical care for crews on long-duration spaceflight missions.

ExMC↗

Earth Observations into Action: Systemic Integration of Earth Observation Applications into National Risk Reduction Decision Structures

As stated in the United Nations Global Assessment Report 2022 Concept Note, decision makers everywhere need data and statistics that are accurate, timely, sufficiently disaggregated, relevant, accessible, and easy to use. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate scalable and replicable methods to advance and integrate the use of Earth observation, specifically ongoing efforts within the Group on Earth Observations Work Programme and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Work Plan, to support risk-informed decision making, based on documented national and subnational needs and requirements.

earth observations↗

Small-Sample Estimator Decisions – Certainly Uncertain in Human Spaceflight at NASA

Within statistics when estimating means, we rely heavily on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to aid in our inference, however in cases where the CLT does not apply we begin to be strongly limited in our choices. If a violation to the CLT comes in the form of small samples and unknown population variance, yet we maintain the assumption of normality, the use of t-distributions is perfectly valid. We explore cases where population normality is not assumed, where sample sizes are small, and where some actionable estimate of the central tendency of a distribution is needed such as for spaceflight operational decisions. Here we identify different scenarios based on measures taken from spaceflight, characterizing performance of estimators of central tendency within our set of simulations. We examine bias and variability of standard estimators of central tendency as they apply to varying small sample sizes and varying population distributions. Further work in this area is needed to develop a framework or set of guidelines for individuals set in these situations. Even with limited information, decisions need to be made.

Central Tendency↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

Implementing the GEOSS Water Strategy: From Observations to Decisions

In 2014, The GEOSS Water Strategy – From Observations to Decisions was published and steps were taken to implement the Strategy’s recommendations. The Strategy highlighted priority areas where the application of Earth observations to water research and water management decisions would have significant scientific and societal benefits. This article reviews the implementation of the Strategy’s recommendations over the past eight years. After a review of the Strategy’s assessment of the needs for water observations and their applications, it then reviews actions taken in response to the Strategy’s recommendations in its four major themes: improved data acquisition for Essential Water Variables, research and product development, interoperability, and capacity development. It highlights significant achievements in the implementation of the Strategy including some motivated by factors beyond this Strategy, reviews actions taken by participating agencies and programs for each of the main themes and summarizes the remaining challenges in achieving the Strategy’s full implementation. The article not only is an update for the Water Community regarding the GEOSS Water Strategy, but it is also an example of how other communities could develop and promulgate a set of strategic recommendations, monitor progress, and carry out assessments of their effectiveness.

Earth observations↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on current and forecast of traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. In this paper, a methodology using supervised learning is developed to build a predictive model for RCM decision-support from large volumes of historical data. Data from two full years (2018 and 2019) related to current and forecast weather, demand/capacity, etc. is collected, analyzed, and fused together. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested for predicting runway configuration and hyperparameter tuning is carried out to select the best performing model. The validation process involves two airports of low (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, CLT) and high (Denver International Airport, DEN) complexity of configuration decision-making. The results show significant promise for the two airports with test accuracy of 93% (CLT) and 73% (DEN). The methodology is scalable and generalizable to other airports across the U.S. National Airspace System.

air traffic management↗

NASA’s Role in Putting Earth Science Information to Use in Decision-Making

The demand for decision-relevant climate information is continually growing, both because of the severity and intensity of climate change impacts and because of the growing recognition that people can take actions today that will mitigate the risk from future climate impacts. Agencies across the federal government are responding to this need by working together to support the Nation in becoming more resilient to climate change. NASA Earth Science has been a key engine of understanding global climate change and how it impacts people around the world. Additionally, for over two decades, the Agency has worked, via partnerships, to connect NASA Earth Science knowledge with decision support needs, often taking a service-oriented approach by working with boundary organizations and climate service providers. In this presentation, we describe NASA’s unique role in enabling new and practical uses of Earth science information, and how the Agency supports public and private sector partners. We highlight several key examples of NASA projects and activities that support local to regional climate resilience efforts. In addition, we discuss how NASA’s new Earth Information Center, a partnership among several federal agencies, enables in-person and virtual visitors to see how our planet is changing in ways that affect their lives and livelihoods. Lastly, we discuss plans for how NASA Earth Science will continue to help build a more climate resilient future.

earth science↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configuration for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on current and forecast of traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. In this paper, a methodology using supervised learning is developed to build a predictive model for RCM decision-support from large volumes of historical data. Data from two full years (2018 and 2019) related to current and forecast weather, demand/capacity, etc. is collected, analyzed, and fused together. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested for predicting runway configuration and hyperparameter tuning is carried out to select the best performing model. The validation process involves two airports of low (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, CLT) and high (Denver International Airport, DEN) complexity of configuration decision-making. The results show significant promise for the two airports with test accuracy of 93% (CLT) and 73% (DEN). The methodology is scalable and generalizable to other airports across the U.S. National Airspace System.

air traffic management↗

Combining NASA Earth Observations and Commercial Smallsat Data to Inform Localized Decision Making

NASA's Earth Science Division's DEVELOP Program builds capacity in individuals and partner organizations to research the feasibility of using Earth observations for informed environmental decision making. Employing an internship-like model, DEVELOP conducts 10-week long feasibility studies that are focused on decision-making organizations' environmental concerns. These projects use the vantage point of space to address environmental issues across a broad set of themes, including agricultural monitoring, disaster risk and resilience planning, water resource and coastal management, wildfire cartography, health & air quality, and urban development. Following the establishment of NASA's Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program, DEVELOP began adding commercial smallsat data into a subset of its feasibility projects. This presentation will highlight the program's use of CSDA data and its integration with NASA Earth observing fleet data, showcase example use cases, speak to challenges faced by the DEVELOP team in using CSDA data, and the broad array of thematic and topical applications created by DEVELOP teams.

Lisa Tanh↗

An Optimization Approach to Support Science Decision Making for Lunar Surface Exploration

Introduction: Scientific exploration is one of the three pillars of NASA’s Moon2Mars architecture, with crew surface extra vehicular activities (EVA) serving a critical enabling function. Development of surface EVA operational planning and execution, specifically integrating science and flight control teams (FCT), is currently being explored through analog scenarios. This integration, exercised, for example, through the Joint EVA and Hu-man Surface Mobility Test Team (JETT), allows for science input on EVA activities in near real-time through a Science Evaluation Room (SER), or Arte-mis science backroom, which integrates with the broader FCT through the Science Officer. The SER works within the FCT to support dynamic EVA planning in response to changes in operational constraints as well as science opportunities and re-prioritization, increasing the mission science return and accelerating the accomplishment of the Moon2Mars science objectives. The SER works within the FCT to provide recommendations to traverse execution in near real-time. One challenge is the requirement to deliver SER inputs to the FCT on operationally relevant timelines. Failure to do so may result in suboptimal execution of science exploration EVAs or even loss of key science objectives. To close this gap, we present a network optimization tool to allow the SER to provide rapid input to the FCT in response to changes in operational constraints or science opportunities. Inputs are predicated on approved science objectives, and clear rationale must be provided to the FCT for any requested change. Accordingly, this tool incorporates the Science Traceability Matrix (STM), SER prioritization scheme, and station characterization and action planning with operational constraints such as duration, traverse speed, and distance to maximize science objectives based on SER priorities, consistent with FCT operational requirements. Method: As a proof of concept, we used an existing linear programing software package used to simulate optimal routes through cellular metabolism. We built a Demonstrative Model with three STM objectives and four stations on a region of the Moon. The objectives were given an arbitrary prioritization and mapped to the stations through four possible crew actions. (Figs. 1 and 2). This station to STM mapping is consistent with the method used by the JETT5 Science Team to develop analog surface EVA science planning. We used a grid system with the landing site at the origin and the four stations placed across the positive x,y quadrant. Actions were assigned to each station and the accomplishment of those actions resulted in a numerical “reward” based on the ability of that action to achieve science objectives. The aggregate reward from each individual STM objective contributes to a global score (Science Yield), weighted by its priority. Operational constraints included a requirement to start and end at the landing site, 5 minutes each for initial station characterization and “clean up,” and variable total EVA time, traverse rate (fixed to 0.5 meters per second in our example), and time to perform each action (10, 5, 7, and 15 min for actions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively). Additional constraints and variables will be added in the future (e.g., sample mass, number of stations, traverse route constraints, illumination). Optimization. We converted the connections (arcs) between these stations (nodes) into a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem (arcs = constraints, nodes = variables) with the objective to maximize Science Yield. For any action, the Science Yield is equal to the relevance of that action to an STM objective [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low relevance, respectively], multiplied by the STM Objective Priority [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low priority, respectively]. This resulted in a model that computes the optimal station and action combination to maximize the Science Yield. These weightings can be adjusted by the SER as desired. Results: We explored three test cases for the Demonstrative Model. First, we set the maximum EVA duration to 120 minutes and computed the optimal route (Fig. 3A). The model suggested per-forming Actions 1 and 2 at Station P01, followed by Actions 1 and 2 at Station P02, and finally Actions 1 and 3 at Station P04 before returning to the Landing Site. Second, we adjusted the STM Objective Priori-ty order and computed the new optimal route (Fig. 3B). Under this situation, the model suggested per-forming all Actions at Station P02 followed by all Actions at Station P03. The previous test cases were relevant to SER planning activities. Next, we explored providing mid-EVA replanning input to the FCT. Scenario: While executing the Route in Fig. 3A the crew finishes at Station P01 and FCT decides that the EVA needs to finish in 45 minutes back at the Landing Site. FCT asks SER to recommend changes to the plan to accommodate this operation-al change. Using the model and incorporating these new constraints (start at Station P01, max. time of 45 min), the model suggested performing Actions 2 and 4 at Station P03 (Fig. 4), requiring 41 minutes to complete and return to the Landing Site. Interestingly, Station 3 was not part of the original route. Using the model, we determined the EVA would need 66 minutes, instead of 45, in order for the original Station P04 to yield a larger Science Yield than Station P03. The parametrization and simulation was per-formed in less than a minute, demonstrating the operational relevance of the approach. Future Efforts: The results from the Demonstrative Model suggest this tool can accelerate SER decision making on operationally relevant timelines. Use in analog activities, such as JETT5 or follow-ons, which have over a dozen stations for a crew to explore and over a dozen actions per station, will provide needed validation of the utility of this tool for planning EVAs, replanning mid-EVA, or planning follow-on EVAs based on previous results. Further integration with FCT execution monitoring tools may provide additional efficiency gains, al-lowing rapid and iterative exploration of operation-al and science decision space by the FCT and SER.

Science Operations↗

Developing Mars-Based Clinical Scenarios for an Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) – Based Decision Support Service

As crewed missions move beyond Low-Earth Orbit, pre-mission planning cannot fully buy down the medical risks of exploration-class missions. Martian missions, where increased hazards exist, (such as long-duration spaceflight, surface-level EVA operations, and communications delays) will require a paradigm shift in the structure of a medical system. An Earth-Independent Medical Operations-based Medical System (EIMO-MS) will need to optimize four critical domains to help provide medical care: utilization of Pre-Mission Planning, augmentation of Acute and Prolonged Medical Decision Making, automated tracking of Resource Management, and assistance in Task Load Balance. The ideal EIMO-MS will be able to accomplish this goal by having an interactive, adaptable interface that will be able to provide real-time medical services. It must respond based on the level of crewmember training, medical situation, and available medical and non-medical resources. To showcase the capabilities and requirements of such a sophisticated automated MS, a series of clinical scenarios of escalating complexity were developed with clinical and systems engineering input. These scenarios describe in clinical detail what a theoretical future medical system, enhanced with multiple information streams (such as a medical database, an AI-based Decision Support System, real-time monitoring, enhanced in-situ laboratory imaging, etc.) can achieve in conjunction with a trained and experienced crew. Scenarios are comprised of: a context section including objectives and applicable spaceflight environment, a highlighted assumptions section, a clinical narrative section, and a systems engineering activity diagram demonstrating the integrated Medical System (MS). The “swim lanes” of the activity diagram act as the logistical core of each scenario and show how the MS will interact with the crew, ground support, and other in-flight systems. The Design Reference Mission that is used for the scenarios is based on existing reference mission profiles [1] with a projected 30-sol stay on the Martian surface. Scenarios span the spectrum from planned evaluations, minor medical care, urgent care, surgical guidance, critical and expectant management, and behavioral health care. Mission complexity will exponentially increase during deep space and Mars exploration-class missions, and medical support for these missions will likewise need to increase in autonomy and adaptability. The integrated system that will support these missions will need to provide assistance in a variety of anticipated and unforeseen scenarios. These medical scenarios, guided by clinician input, are initial steps in crafting the requirements for an EIMO-based medical system. By working in a systems engineering framework, requirements and capabilities can be extracted and mapped while maintaining a clinical core.

Prashant Parmar↗

ROBUSTNESS OF DECISION INSIGHTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE ALEATORY/EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY CLASSIFICATIONS

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A key technical challenge is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, would be founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance. Evaluation of probabilistic safety margins will in general entail the uncertainty characterization both of the prospective challenge to the performance of an SSC ("load") and of its "capacity" to withstand that challenge. The RISMC framework contrasts sharply with the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) structure in that the underlying models are not inherently aleatory. Rather, they are largely deterministic physical/engineering models with ambiguities about the appropriate uncertainty classification of many model parameters. The current analysis demonstrates that if the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is to be preserved in a RISMC-like modeling environment, then it is unlikely that analysis insights supporting decision-making will in general be robust under recategorization of input uncertainties. If it is believed there is a true conceptual distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty (as opposed to the distinction being primarily a legacy of the PRA paradigm) then a consistent and defensible basis must be established by which to categorize input uncertainties.

probabilistic risk assessment↗